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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:15 PM   #2441
newyorkguy
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Herd immunity is an increasingly popular meme among Republicans. Most don't seem to know what it means. The gentleman below appears to be a Dan Patrick disciple. Patrick, the Lt. Gov. of Texas, had said in interviews he believes the economy should reopen for the good of the nation as a whole. That coronavirus will only kill the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Patrick says, as a senior himself, he's willing to die so his kids and their kids can keep working and building their future. "There's more important things, " Patrick told Fox' Tucker Carlson, "than living." The trouble is, herd immunity doesn't seem to work the way Patrick and Grampa think it does.

A webpage on the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource center explains:
Quote:
To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. John Hopkins
This page was written in late April. As of now the death rate in the U.S. is close to 6%. Meaning if 200 million Americans contracted Covid-19 we might be looking at twelve million deaths, not half-a-million.

Dr. Fauci spoke on this when he testified before Congress recently. Below is a quote from ABC News:
Quote:
It's a concept called herd immunity: Once enough people become immune to the novel coronavirus, it can't spread easily throughout the population. Vaccinations are necessary to create that kind of large-scale immunity, as the virus won't just disappear without a vaccine, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci. "That is just not going to happen, because it's such a highly transmissible virus," Fauci said in his address to a Senate panel last Tuesday. "Even if we get better control over the summer months, it is likely that there will be virus somewhere on this planet that will eventually get back to us." ABC News link
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:20 PM   #2442
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Originally Posted by Shalamar View Post
A handful of states have decided that the economy is more important than lives. I suspect things are opening up too soon, and the president is not helping.
But the interesting phenomenon is that people are generally not in a hurry despite what their governments are doing.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:27 PM   #2443
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Herd immunity is an increasingly popular meme among Republicans. Most don't seem to know what it means. Th gentleman below appears to be a Dan Patrick disciple. Patrick, the Lt. Gov. of Texas, had said in interviews he believes the economy should reopen for the good of the nation as a whole. That coronavirus will only kill the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. Patrick says, as a senior himself, he's willing to die so his kids and their kids can keep working and building their future. "There's more important things, " Patrick told Fox' Tucker Carlson, "than living." The trouble is, herd immunity doesn't seem to work the way Patrick and Grampa think it does.

A webpage on the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource center explains:


This page was written in late April. As of now the death rate in the U.S. is close to 6%. Meaning if 200 million Americans contracted Covid-19 we might be looking at twelve million deaths, not half-a-million.

Dr. Fauci spoke on this when he testified before Congress recently. Below is a quote from ABC News:
Great idea; herd immunity. So, let's take all the people wanting this, have a bunch of old fashioned "Covid 19 Parties", quarantine them for a month, and when they test negative twice, those that survive can then feel free roam wherever they wish. I'm Ok with that.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:44 PM   #2444
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Yeah, acbytesla picked a bad example for his analogy.

Remember. There has never been a peer-reviewed, double-blind study with a control group to evaluate the efficacy of parachutes used by live humans.

From one study:
“Parachute use did not significantly reduce death or major injury (0% for parachute v 0% for control; P>0.9). “https://www.bmj.com/content/363/bmj.k5094

The next step is to try things with the planes in the air, as opposed to on the ground.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:50 PM   #2445
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Originally Posted by Paul2 View Post
From one study:
“Parachute use did not significantly reduce death or major injury (0% for parachute v 0% for control; P>0.9). “https://www.bmj.com/content/363/bmj.k5094

The next step is to try things with the planes in the air, as opposed to on the ground.
That sold me! Obviously parachutes are worthless. I'm free falling next time. Parachutes are for woosies.

By the way, is that a Stearman in the pic? My dad loved flying that plane.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:54 PM   #2446
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
But the interesting phenomenon is that people are generally not in a hurry despite what their governments are doing.
Which might help.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:05 PM   #2447
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How does Trump explain Australia?


https://www.theage.com.au/national/b...21-p54v72.html


Quote:


Scott Morrison might owe Donald Trump a strategic apology. Australia's success in suppressing the first wave of the coronavirus doesn't sit well with the US President's latest attempt to avoid responsibility for the American death toll now approaching 100,000.
Because if Trump is to be believed, no one could have stopped the plague. How else should the Prime Minister read the tweet Trump sent on Wednesday, directed at "some whacko in China" who was "blaming everybody other than China for the Virus which has now killed hundreds of thousands of people"?


"Please explain to this dope that it was the 'incompetence of China', and nothing else, that did this mass Worldwide killing!" the President tweeted.
By that reckoning, the roll call of nations that have avoided the worst of the pandemic so far, including Australia and New Zealand in the Asia Pacific, South Korea and Taiwan in Asia, and Denmark and Greece in Europe, must have been lucky. All were in the direct line of transmission from Wuhan, but somehow the plague didn't bother knocking on their door.
This is patently absurd. In Australia's case, the country responsible for the greatest number of infections happened to be the United States, not China. We closed our borders to China as soon as we appreciated the risk; just as Trump himself did in late January. But the Americans weren't testing for the virus, and Australian health officials drew false comfort from their apparent low number of cases in February. The virus almost got away from us because of a failure to anticipate the threat of community transmission from Australians returning from winter holidays in the US.It was only after we shut the border to the US in late March, and enforced a 14-day quarantine for all Australians coming home, that the virus was suppressed. But that detail is best avoided between friends, because it would only draw Morrison into the cross-hairs of Trump's digital grievances.

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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:09 PM   #2448
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Originally Posted by Shalamar View Post
Which might help.
I just saw a video on NBC where they said despite the Georgia government reopening ahead of even what Trump was suggesting, the public in Georgia has acted like most of the country and that was with caution.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:32 PM   #2449
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Originally Posted by Shalamar View Post
A large portion of the social distancing and stay at home orders are to help prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed.

We need that herd immunity, which we can't have until there is a vaccine. And I think we're out of time.
Oh for pity's sake! Of course taking the burden off the health care system is of critical importance.

But tests are showing something between 4 and 15% give or take of the population in the US having been infected. How do you suggest this herd immunity pre-vaccine be accomplished? Using the generous goal of 60% of the population needing immunity, do you even understand what you are saying?

What are the total deaths in the US now? 94,000?

So given that's roughly based on say 10% of the population are you happy with total deaths 5 times greater than 94,000 or 470,000 deaths to get your herd immunity with 60% of the population infected?

That's nuts!

[I have lost my math skills so someone please correct me if I did that wrong.]
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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:35 PM   #2450
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
How does Trump explain Australia?

Quote:
The virus almost got away from us because of a failure to anticipate the threat of community transmission from Australians returning from winter holidays in the US.It was only after we shut the border to the US in late March, and enforced a 14-day quarantine for all Australians coming home, that the virus was suppressed. But that detail is best avoided between friends, because it would only draw Morrison into the cross-hairs of Trump's digital grievances.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/b...21-p54v72.html
And THAT is what Trump should have done with anyone coming into the US from ANYWHERE. Instead, he hypes his closing of the border to anyone coming in from China ...except for the long list of exemptions without quarantining, testing, or sometimes even asking the returnees if they were sick.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:45 PM   #2451
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I'm perfectly willing to be the control group for that experiment. We will stay to ourselves, and see what happens with slightly less restrictions here, and a lot less restrictions in Texas. If things get really bad, we'll be locked down again.

I would love it if everything turned out to be way overhyped, but I'm not optimistic. Texas passed us in case count today, and their daily case count seems very high.
Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I just saw a video on NBC where they said despite the Georgia government reopening ahead of even what Trump was suggesting, the public in Georgia has acted like most of the country and that was with caution.

This is my nightmare scenario: 80% of the population acts responsibly, doesn't go out unless necessary, takes precautions otherwise, and so the number of cases doesn't actually spike in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, the stupidest 20% of the population goes out, gets drunk, gets on TV hanging out at bars and BBQs, and then, because everyone else acted responsibly and prevented a new outbreak, convinces everyone that "See? We told you it wasn't so bad!" So now 80% of the population starts going out, and we see a spike a month from now.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:52 PM   #2452
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Because far too many stupid people have decided it's too hard to keep up the social distancing, and so we should just let a few million people get sick and die, and even more stupid people are convinced that social distancing is some nefarious plot, and don't even believe in the virus to begin with.
From a friend of mine who lives in Hong Kong where social distancing is impossible, she says they got used to wearing the masks. With everyone wearing masks all the time in public places the number of new cases and deaths dropped to almost zero.

They had a tiny upsurge with some foreigners introducing new cases into the country but compared to Trump's "badge of honor"... I think you get the picture.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 08:24 PM   #2453
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Public health models show certain states may see a 'second wave.' New studies suggest as many as 24 U.S. states still have an uncontrolled Coronavirus spread. Georgia is one and so is Texas. That many residents in these states are still using a great deal of caution is the best defense they have at this point. From an MSN news report:
Quote:
In Texas, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said he consults with doctors and experts from area hospitals, “and what they tell us is that we’re reopening too fast, and we’re reopening in the wrong order.” Local jurisdictions in Texas do not have the authority to issue more stringent restrictions than the state, which began aggressively reopening this month. So Dallas has focused on messaging. The county has a daily “covid-19 risk level” that is currently red, for “stay home, stay safe.” Officials are working on seals that businesses can display to indicate they are meeting local public health guidelines, not just state mandates.

Rebecca Fischer, an epidemiologist at Texas A&M University and part of a team partnering with the governor’s office, said the daily caseload was fluctuating, but “it looks like we’re not cresting a peak and coming down the other side.” A week ago, Texas reported a single-day high in new cases as well as deaths — about 14 days after the beginning of the state’s phased reopening. The state has now reported more than 52,000 cases and nearly 1,500 deaths. MSN
It's interesting that even health officials working with state governors refuse to sugar coat reality. Wonder how many death threats Rebecca Fischer has received?
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Old 22nd May 2020, 08:37 PM   #2454
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
But the interesting phenomenon is that people are generally not in a hurry despite what their governments are doing.
Except for the gun toting protestors.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 08:37 PM   #2455
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
From a friend of mine who lives in Hong Kong where social distancing is impossible, she says they got used to wearing the masks. With everyone wearing masks all the time in public places the number of new cases and deaths dropped to almost zero...
The trouble with using Hong Kong as an example -- if that was your intent -- they have had a very small outbreak. About 1,066 cases and 4 deaths in a population over 7 million. Their one day high was 65 cases on March 27th and they've been recording a single-digit number of new cases since April 12th. Worldometer Hong Kong
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Old 22nd May 2020, 08:41 PM   #2456
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
And THAT is what Trump should have done with anyone coming into the US from ANYWHERE. Instead, he hypes his closing of the border to anyone coming in from China ...except for the long list of exemptions without quarantining, testing, or sometimes even asking the returnees if they were sick.
And don't forget... When they did require medical checks for travellers, they were often lined up in a small room (no masks or social distancing)... A perfect way to spread the virus.

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Old 22nd May 2020, 08:49 PM   #2457
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
The trouble with using Hong Kong as an example -- if that was your intent -- they have had a very small outbreak. About 1,066 cases and 4 deaths in a population over 7 million. Their one day high was 65 cases on March 27th and they've been recording a single-digit number of new cases since April 12th. Worldometer Hong Kong
WTF? Are you serious? We can't compare Hong Kong to the US because yada yada?

The trouble with ignoring the facts on the ground, cherry picking some reason we can't compare Hong Kong to the US would be fine if you had some other examples of countries where the population was wearing masks and they had fatality rates comparable to the US.

You got any?

I used the Hong Kong example because social distancing is impossible yet they've done so well.

You got any contradictory evidence about everyone wearing masks not helping significantly?

Anything? Bueller? Bueller?
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 22nd May 2020 at 08:51 PM.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:13 PM   #2458
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
In between Birx distorted CDC data pretending it's all rosy, "See all the Covid is going away because the ILI (influenza like illness) reports are down and flu surveillance using ILI shows all the states except two turning green on the map." "The country's green, it's all gone." [paraphrasing, but not by much]
That again? *sigh*

Anyways...

In other news, there's stuff like this.

Quote:
At the end of March, Donald Trump announced that the FDA approved a machine that disinfected N95 respirator masks, allowing up to 20 uses of a single mask. This sounded great, as the Trump administration’s criminally negligent handling of the country’s stockpile of protective equipment had left thousands of frontline workers pleading for help. The Ohio-based Battelle, the company that made the machines, claimed that this process would not degrade the mask’s “performance.”

At the time, reports claimed the machine would cost the government $60 million for 60 machines. But as NBC News reports, that number somehow ballooned to $413 million over the next few days. By the beginning of May, the cost of these machines was capped at $600 million. And guess what? Yes, like everything else Donald Trump has ever promised anyone, what these machines can do was also grossly exaggerated.

According to NBC, “scientists and nurses say the recycled masks treated by these machines begin to degrade after two or three treatments, not 20, and the company says its own recent field testing has only confirmed the integrity of the masks for four cycles of use and decontamination.”
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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:14 PM   #2459
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
WTF? Are you serious? We can't compare Hong Kong to the US because yada yada?

The trouble with ignoring the facts on the ground, cherry picking some reason we can't compare Hong Kong to the US would be fine if you had some other examples of countries where the population was wearing masks and they had fatality rates comparable to the US.

You got any?

I used the Hong Kong example because social distancing is impossible yet they've done so well.

You got any contradictory evidence about everyone wearing masks not helping significantly?

Anything? Bueller? Bueller?
Statistics just seem to bounce off of people. In SE Asia there's many more people who have lost people during multiple instances of these circumstances in their lifetimes. They respect the danger. Where people have been insulated from those kinds of cultural scarring events, you get the sense of invincibility and disregard.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:27 PM   #2460
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Statistics just seem to bounce off of people. In SE Asia there's many more people who have lost people during multiple instances of these circumstances in their lifetimes. They respect the danger. Where people have been insulated from those kinds of cultural scarring events, you get the sense of invincibility and disregard.
So Hong Kong has experienced SARS (1) and learned from it so the data on everyone wearing masks can be hand-waved away?

I take it you aren't saying that. But I wish you would elaborate so it was more clear.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:57 PM   #2461
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Originally Posted by Shalamar View Post
We need that herd immunity, which we can't have until there is a vaccine. And I think we're out of time.
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Oh for pity's sake! Of course taking the burden off the health care system is of critical importance.

But tests are showing something between 4 and 15% give or take of the population in the US having been infected. How do you suggest this herd immunity pre-vaccine be accomplished?
Please read the post you're quoting before blowing up at it, SG.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:12 PM   #2462
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
So Hong Kong has experienced SARS (1) and learned from it so the data on everyone wearing masks can be hand-waved away?



I take it you aren't saying that. But I wish you would elaborate so it was more clear.
The statistics just don't penetrate to change behaviors.

Pain does.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:16 PM   #2463
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Please read the post you're quoting before blowing up at it, SG.
I did read it, which is why I said this: "I take it you aren't saying that. But I wish you would elaborate so it was more clear."
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:21 PM   #2464
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I did read it, which is why I said this: "I take it you aren't saying that. But I wish you would elaborate so it was more clear."
No, that was in a different post, responding to a different poster.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 10:28 PM   #2465
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
The statistics just don't penetrate to change behaviors.

Pain does.
That has zero impact on what I posted.

I don't care whether a minority of idiots understand reality or not. That's not why I posted what I did.

Horatious said: "Because far too many stupid people have decided it's too hard to keep up the social distancing, ..."

That's what I answered, we don't need social distancing we need everyone to wear masks.

The rest of what he said I get. Trump encourages them, They're all ******* idiots. We could have that discussion ad nauseum.

I don't give a **** about them. I want to focus on the masks.

If the residents of the favelas in Brazil wore simple cloth masks they wouldn't be burying thousands of people. They don't need hand sanitizer, or running water. Those things would help, but the masks alone, inexpensive, easily implemented, that's what we should be talking about.

OK yeah, we can't get around discussing the idiots. But let's put that in the background. If everyone in the ******* world put on masks, transmission would go down to R-naught. That's a simple measure, a simple message.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:04 PM   #2466
fromdownunder
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's what I answered, we don't need social distancing we need everyone to wear masks.

I don't give a **** about them. I want to focus on the masks.
Let's have a look at Australia, where masks have not been recommended for the general population, and are actually discouraged apart from those in places where they are genuinely needed (Hospitals, Emergency Services, Aged care Homes):

Cases: 7,111 (279 per million)
Deaths: 102 (4 per million)


I believe our first case was recorded back in February.


Despite being in the at risk group, and I only rarely venture out, I have seen exactly two people wearing masks out of many hundreds. I got my flu shot from my GP, and nobody at the clinic, including her, was wearing a mask. I am still well a month later. So is she.

Social distancing and staying home unless absolutely necessary to leave seems to be working quite well here. So perhaps people in some other countries are not taking it quite as seriously as we do, or both these things have a different definition to the one we use.

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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:21 PM   #2467
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
OK yeah, we can't get around discussing the idiots. But let's put that in the background. If everyone in the ******* world put on masks, transmission would go down to R-naught. That's a simple measure, a simple message.
But... this is the US Politics related to COVID-19 thread. Talking about idiots practically is the thread, given how much idiocy there is in the US.

Related to masks, specifically, in a move that is sure to make you happy...


No masks allowed: stores turn customers away in US culture war

Shops around the US make headlines for denying entry to those wearing masks as protesters argue against preventative measures in the name of freedom
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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:33 PM   #2468
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
Let's have a look at Australia, where masks have not been recommended for the general population, and are actually discouraged apart from those in places where they are genuinely needed (Hospitals, Emergency Services, Aged care Homes):

Cases: 7,111 (279 per million)
Deaths: 102 (4 per million)


I believe our first case was recorded back in February.


Despite being in the at risk group, and I only rarely venture out, I have seen exactly two people wearing masks out of many hundreds. I got my flu shot from my GP, and nobody at the clinic, including her, was wearing a mask. I am still well a month later. So is she.

Social distancing and staying home unless absolutely necessary to leave seems to be working quite well here. So perhaps people in some other countries are not taking it quite as seriously as we do, or both these things have a different definition to the one we use.

Norm
Of course that worked in Oz and New Zealand. What's the population density in Oz? And both Australia and New Zealand caught the infection early in their countries.

Tell me, can Brazil's favelas follow that example? Pakistan? India? The refugee camps? Most of Africa?

**** Donald Trump and his sycophants. The US needs to set the example that everyone wearing masks can prevent transmission.

Trump and his lackeys made a mess of things with all the mixed messages about masks. Now half the country answers the mask question with crap about the masks not protecting the wearer. Wearing masks protects everyone from the person wearing the masks.

Everyone needs to wear masks and that's the message we need to be sending out to the rest of the world.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:47 PM   #2469
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Our resident 5G conspiracy theorist, PartSkeptic, maintains that 'electrosmog' is damaging everybody's immune system, and hence making the coronavirus pandemic (which was, of course, sent by God to reduce the population, just like God told him he would) worse than it would otherwise be.
AIUI, the idea is that the virus itself is harmless, and the 5G "activates" it within your body. The virus, of course, is made by Bill Gates to reduce the population.

That it would be easier to just engineer a virus that kills people without microwaves doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 12:44 AM   #2470
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Of course that worked in Oz and New Zealand. What's the population density in Oz? And both Australia and New Zealand caught the infection early in their countries.
I follow your posts with interest and appreciation and I don't want to contradict you or disagree.

But, if it's relevant to your understanding of the spread here in Australia, you may not be aware that ours is notoriously one of the most urbanised countries in the world with 89% of our population living in a handful of urban areas. (Wikipedia).

Last night, however, I heard Norman Swan of the Health Report on the ABC say that on close-packed public transport and in cinemas, in crowds at sporting events and such (when they are re-opened) people should definitely wear masks.



Barbara

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Old 23rd May 2020, 01:45 AM   #2471
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
But... this is the US Politics related to COVID-19 thread. Talking about idiots practically is the thread, given how much idiocy there is in the US.

Related to masks, specifically, in a move that is sure to make you happy...


No masks allowed: stores turn customers away in US culture war

Shops around the US make headlines for denying entry to those wearing masks as protesters argue against preventative measures in the name of freedom
I keep thinking of the horror movie expression "too dumb to live", and how it applies to certain peoples' response to the corona pandemic .
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Old 23rd May 2020, 01:54 AM   #2472
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Except for the gun toting protestors.
Yes they exist but there are so few of them. I live in rural Maryland, South of Washington and we see some of these dickheads. I saw a rather small convoy of the "Gravy SEALS" and they got shown the middle finger by many other drivers. I know they make good copy but they really aren't a factor. Our governor, Larry Hogan is wildly popular in Maryland and seems to be uninfluenced by the Trumptrash with the guns.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 02:44 AM   #2473
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
How does Trump explain Australia?


https://www.theage.com.au/national/b...21-p54v72.html
Fake News?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 03:55 AM   #2474
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person
How does Trump explain Australia?

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Fake News?

The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.


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Old 23rd May 2020, 05:58 AM   #2475
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Public health models show certain states may see a 'second wave.' New studies suggest as many as 24 U.S. states still have an uncontrolled Coronavirus spread. Georgia is one and so is Texas. That many residents in these states are still using a great deal of caution is the best defense they have at this point. From an MSN news report:


It's interesting that even health officials working with state governors refuse to sugar coat reality. Wonder how many death threats Rebecca Fischer has received?
The Washington Post page has really good charts (and is not paywalled). It shows the seven day average, which is easier to interpret than the bar graph. The seven day average of new cases in Texas is considerably higher today than the day they opened (about 1200 cases per day now vs. roughly 800 on the day they opened).

Georgia looks like the average is somewhat lower today than the day they opened.

I don't see an easy way to paste the image, sorry.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 06:03 AM   #2476
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
Quote:
Local jurisdictions in Texas do not have the authority to issue more stringent restrictions than the state, which began aggressively reopening this month. So Dallas has focused on messaging. The county has a daily “covid-19 risk level” that is currently red, for “stay home, stay safe.” Officials are working on seals that businesses can display to indicate they are meeting local public health guidelines, not just state mandates.
It's interesting that even health officials working with state governors refuse to sugar coat reality. Wonder how many death threats Rebecca Fischer has received?

The US is only doing as well as it is because so many lower-level officials have realized that the leadership from Trump and some Governors is really bad, and so have decided to just do it themselves, as much as possible.

Of course, this won't stop Trump from talking the credit for what works, even if it directly contradicts what he himself said should be done.


Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I used the Hong Kong example because social distancing is impossible yet they've done so well.

You got any contradictory evidence about everyone wearing masks not helping significantly?

Anything? Bueller? Bueller?

Yeah, I visited HK last year, and the population density there is just astounding. The smallest building I saw was larger than the largest building in my city, and the whole bay is just surrounded by buildings that size and larger, just mile after mile. That they have done so well in containing this virus is a testament to the population's good efforts. If they can do that under such packed conditions, any country should be able to do it.


Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Horatious said: "Because far too many stupid people have decided it's too hard to keep up the social distancing, ..."

That's what I answered, we don't need social distancing we need everyone to wear masks.

I consider the use of masks to be part of social distancing, so we're actually in agreement here. The problem is so many of the idiots won't wear a mask either. Hell, people have been shot over this exact issue.

In North America, we have the luxury of space that HK doesn't. Combine that with mask use, and we should be able to control this. That we can't is largely down to the actions of the completely undisciplined portion of our society, which is depressingly large at this point in our history.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 06:08 AM   #2477
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
How does Trump explain Australia?
...
Quote:
I love kangaroos. And by the way, boomerangs are great. Haven't we all had, I mean I've been saying this for a long time, boomerangs, who knows, you can’t explain them. I will be so good. I'll tell you what, your great prime minister. I mean, look, I'm for it - that guy with shrimp on the Barbie. The people that are friends of mine that called to say, Donald, I love Australia!
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Old 23rd May 2020, 06:32 AM   #2478
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Hong Kong has done so well because everyone wears face masks despite the fact social distancing is impossible. SG knows this because she has 'a friend' who lives in Hong Kong. Was I suggesting wearing a face mask has no effect? No, of course not. I was suggesting, based on what I've read, that Hong Kong seems to have had a very small influx of coronavirus. Nothing like the massive waves of infections other countries have had to deal with. To say it was all contained by people wearing face masks is one possibility and probably an important one. But Hong Kong also had a very strong response and very early. Below is a quote from a news story on CNN:
Quote:
The coronavirus first emerged in mainland China in December, and jumped the border into Hong Kong on January 24. By then, it had already made its way to several other countries. Hong Kong closed borders and began social distancing just a week or so after recording its first case. But this three-month stretch of working from home, business closures and service suspensions has dealt a massive blow to both the city's economy and the mental health and well-being of residents.

Then, as the coronavirus pandemic moved beyond China and hit the West, shuttering universities and raising alarm, Hong Kong students and residents began returning to the city in waves -- bringing the virus back with them. By the end of the month, case numbers had surged past 700. The government took quick, aggressive action to curb the second imported wave; they barred non-residents from entering the city, halted travelers from transiting through the city's airport, and implemented strict quarantine and testing measures on all arrivals to the city, regardless of origin. Those under home quarantine were given electronic bracelets to track their location. CNN link
It was stated above that if Hong Kong could control the virus, keep it to very low levels, any country should have been able to do it. That may be true. (Of course at this point, it's also irrelevant.) It is also possible there were other factors at work besides wearing a face mask. The CNN reporting makes it pretty clear there were.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 06:50 AM   #2479
carlitos
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
The Washington Post page has really good charts (and is not paywalled). It shows the seven day average, which is easier to interpret than the bar graph. The seven day average of new cases in Texas is considerably higher today than the day they opened (about 1200 cases per day now vs. roughly 800 on the day they opened).

Georgia looks like the average is somewhat lower today than the day they opened.

I don't see an easy way to paste the image, sorry.
Thanks! I had been looking for a source to look at 7-day charts vs. doing them myself.

Here is Georgia (I did a screen cap)
Attached Images
File Type: jpg GA-cases.jpg (40.2 KB, 15 views)

Last edited by carlitos; 23rd May 2020 at 06:51 AM. Reason: image - weird, thought i posted this once already today?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 06:59 AM   #2480
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Everyone needs to wear masks and that's the message we need to be sending out to the rest of the world.
But wouldn't we look silly ?
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