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Old 19th April 2020, 02:47 PM   #161
Skeptic Ginger
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Yes, obviously. What's your point?
Stop passing on word of mouth stuff that isn't validated. That's why I got interested in the JREF in the first place. I wanted to work on stopping bad medical beliefs from being passed on from person to person: vitamin C cures colds, homeopathy, the flu vaccine makes you sick, you can't get infected through your mouth.

Is this not the ISF? Or are we now just chit-chatting about whatever we heard somewhere?
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Old 19th April 2020, 02:50 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
But assuming a lockdown which has now gone on for quite a while, why are the new cases still so large? I contend that there are a LOT more people sharing air that shouldn't be still at this point

But I'm open to some unknown foodborne outbreaks

or maybe even a bunch of apartments sharing air between all the different units?

But given what I see of pictures and videos, it seems like still way way way too many people in close contact
I think it will be quite a while before the NY/NJ/CT ďhotspotĒ can be fully understood.

Itís a very diverse place, and a lot of people were, and are, going to work every day. By subway. Social distancing, masks, etc certainly help. But itís still a long way from testing everyone who wants/needs testing. And the turnaround is often still days, not minutes.

One snapshot: it took a long time for several of the ultra-orthodox Jewish communities to accept the need for social distancing. Before that acceptance, for example (IIRC), five rabbis in one such community in northern NJ died. Of Covid-19.

Thereís a historical irony: this same tri-state area (plus Pennsylvania) bore the brunt of Hurricane Sandy, though far fewer deaths then.
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Old 19th April 2020, 03:48 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
....


I'll be interested to see what Germany comes up with, because I don't trust the LA numbers at all, which is probably why they didn't bother seeking peer review before publishing - they knew it was crap.
The LA numbers have not come out yet, only the Santa Clara County numbers that used a biased sample of 3300 subjects. LA used 1,000 random. But their pre-release info was "not as high as, but not a magnitude off either". Plus there is a 3rd test also by Stanford, done in San Jose. Numbers also due out Monday. I think it used the same instant system as LA.

What the serology test will show is that for every person WITH SYMPTOMS who tested positive by nasal swab, there were 20-50 for whom the disease came and went, without any serious signs or symptoms. Which means herd immunity is building faster than we thought. We can get a good guesstimate of when to stop the quarantines.

And maybe all those symptomless cases will give a better handle on the risk factors? Say, ventilation systems? Not the grocery store cart handles, the grocery store ventilation? NYC apartments? Ski resort lodges? Caloifronia has a low rate, nice weather too, and open windows?

Now people discuss whether serology means immunity. Seems to me it has to, or there would be no "recoveries", patients would just stay sick. Question actually is, how long does that immunity last? Or does recovery merely mean the cytokine storm is over? Active IgG is gone, but the fact that IgM is still there means nothing?
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Old 19th April 2020, 03:49 PM   #164
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To add: itís not high density living, or crowded subways, per se, that inevitably leads to a runaway epidemic. After all, Hong Kong beats New York City hands down in that regard (likely Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, ... too).

An advantage HK has, over the Big Apple: they learned from SARS, because they had to. So no need to recommend face masks, for example (though they did); people wore them anyway.
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Old 19th April 2020, 03:50 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
I think it will be quite a while before the NY/NJ/CT ďhotspotĒ can be fully understood.

Itís a very diverse place, and a lot of people were, and are, going to work every day. By subway. Social distancing, masks, etc certainly help. But itís still a long way from testing everyone who wants/needs testing. And the turnaround is often still days, not minutes.

One snapshot: it took a long time for several of the ultra-orthodox Jewish communities to accept the need for social distancing. Before that acceptance, for example (IIRC), five rabbis in one such community in northern NJ died. Of Covid-19.

Thereís a historical irony: this same tri-state area (plus Pennsylvania) bore the brunt of Hurricane Sandy, though far fewer deaths then.
NYC is also starting the biggest random serology testing. 2,000 people per day, 14,000 per week. Results in a week.
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Old 19th April 2020, 03:59 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
Dear SK,

You tend to over react to many posts. I only suggested that it was hypothetically conceivable skin possessed some inherent antimicrobial activities, or not, and only suggested to not be completely dismissive of the possibility. Obviously any such activities are not enough to consistently protect us. The reason to do handwashing, duh, but an evolutionary benefit, if true, before the development of soap.

Well surprise, skin is known to synthesize and display on its surface antibacterial peptides.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2639779/

There is an enormous amount of RNase on the skin surface, although I don’t see how this could penetrate intact, infectious RNA viruses.

If you have studies that prove skin has no antiviral activities versus an inorganic surface I would like to read them. Honestly.
(bold is mine)

I did not dismiss it. I said we shouldn't be passing on unsupported assertions. You said:
Quote:
... Skin has a variety of anti-microbials and I can imagine that some skin oils for example might help disrupt viral envelopes to some degree. Or not. I just don’t think it is established one way or another....
But remember you said it in support of Squeegee's post:
Quote:
I have seen advice against gloves. The argument is that your skin's natural secretions can help the virus' lipids to break down, whereas rubber gloves just transmit it from place to place.

How true that is I don't know.
If you don't know if it is true or not, look into it before passing unsupported speculation on.

You implied Squeegee's post contained a valid hypothesis, fine, I said prove it. Prove it is a valid hypothesis, don't just assert it without any source. Take the time to look into it before posting it where you know people will run with it.

OK, good, here is something valid we can actually discuss. It does not support the assertion anything on our hands kills enveloped viruses. But it's a start to find out if that is the case or not.

The majority of that paper is about inflammatory reactions on the skin, not like the macrophages in the lung that actually attack microorganisms.

Skin Immune Landscape: Inside and Outside the Organism
Quote:
In fact, the skin surface is cohabited by microorganisms recognized as skin microbiota that live in complete harmony with the immune sentinels and contribute to the epithelial barrier reinforcement. However, under stress, the symbiotic relationship changes into a dysbiotic one resulting in skin disorders. Hence, the skin microbiota may have either positive or negative influence on the immune system. This review aims at providing basic background information on the cutaneous immune system from major cellular and molecular players and the impact of its microbiota on the well-coordinated immune responses in host defense....

...Moreover, the skin forms a complex and dynamic ecosystem colonized by about 1012 microorganisms including bacteria, fungi, and viruses known as skin microbiota.
The article is clear that any immune response against a microbial assault requires it to be triggered.

This article supports the assertion the immune response has to be triggered. It isn't like our skin contains natural disinfectants:
The Dynamics of the Skin’s Immune System
Quote:
In the event of an insult, the skin-resident immune cells are crucial not only for prevention of infection but also for tissue reconstruction. Deregulation of immune responses often leads to impaired healing and poor tissue restoration and function. In this review, we will discuss the defensive components of the skin and focus on the function of skin-resident immune cells in homeostasis and their role in wound healing.
Given the enveloped coronaviruses aren't likely to upset the skin biome unless that is the virus' target cell (like HSV and HPV) we need to look further.


I didn't have good luck looking for coronavirus on hands, too many articles on hand washing show up. But I did find some related articles:

Survival of influenza virus on hands and fomites in community and laboratory settings.

H1N1 doesn't survive long on hands but the exact time isn't in the abstract. However:

Fomite-mediated transmission as a sufficient pathway: a comparative analysis across three viral pathogens
Quote:
We developed and analyzed a compartmental model that explicitly accounts for fomite transmission by including pathogen transfer between hands and surfaces. We consider two sub-types of fomite-mediated transmission: direct fomite (e.g., shedding onto fomites) and hand-fomite (e.g., shedding onto hands and then contacting fomites). We use this model to examine three pathogens with distinct environmental characteristics (influenza, rhinovirus, and norovirus) in four venue types. To parameterize the model for each pathogen we conducted a thorough literature search....

Conclusions
Fomite-mediated transmission is an important pathway for the three pathogens examined. The effectiveness of environmental interventions differs significantly both by pathogen and venue. While fomite-based interventions may be able to lower ℛ0 for fomites below 1 and interrupt transmission, rhinovirus and norovirus are so infectious (ℛ0>>1) that single environmental interventions are unlikely to interrupt fomite transmission for these pathogens.
This suggests it is the viability of the microorganisms on hands is related to the pathogen more than the skin surface.


To find out if coronavirus is more easily transferred by a gloved hand than an ungloved hand is a moot point if they both can become contaminated and transfer the virus. If you add the fact skin oils can act as a transfer medium....

But if someone wants to investigate the glove vs hands claim, have at it.


So are we chit-chatting or are we discussing evidence based information?
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 19th April 2020 at 04:09 PM.
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Old 19th April 2020, 04:12 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
But assuming a lockdown which has now gone on for quite a while, why are the new cases still so large? I contend that there are a LOT more people sharing air that shouldn't be still at this point

But I'm open to some unknown foodborne outbreaks

or maybe even a bunch of apartments sharing air between all the different units?

But given what I see of pictures and videos, it seems like still way way way too many people in close contact
You won't likely see a foodborne outbreak because it would be a contaminated surface of the food rather than a broader contamination.

But we don't know for sure. Some pathogens have been a contaminate of things like green onions after getting into the rinse water.
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Old 19th April 2020, 04:15 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
This article does a great job of explaining the value of serologic tests. It also is one of the rare pieces that describes the problem with the Stanford study. It's a really good article. The guy understands statistics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/faste...004102410.html
Cuomo said they are going to do a very broad serological survey all over the state to estimate how widespread the virus is. He said it would take a week. I am excited to see the results of the survey.

He also noted there are many versions of the test by different companies and they weren't interchangeable. That creates a problem.
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Old 19th April 2020, 04:48 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
To add: itís not high density living, or crowded subways, per se, that inevitably leads to a runaway epidemic. After all, Hong Kong beats New York City hands down in that regard (likely Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, ... too).



An advantage HK has, over the Big Apple: they learned from SARS, because they had to. So no need to recommend face masks, for example (though they did); people wore them anyway.
Yeah, I noticed early on that so many photos from SE Asia showed universal mask use and lots of gloves, too.

Perhaps more importantly, as you say, a cultural understanding and acceptance of what these things are, how, and when to use them.
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Old 19th April 2020, 05:11 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Cuomo said they are going to do a very broad serological survey all over the state to estimate how widespread the virus is. He said it would take a week. I am excited to see the results of the survey.
Me too! We are going to know a lot more in the next few weeks.

Quote:
He also noted there are many versions of the test by different companies and they weren't interchangeable. That creates a problem.
Yep. OTOH, we will get a lot of info on which tests actually produce results consistent with what they stated during their emergency approvals as well as the few that have gone through the full FDA process.

I expect a lot more clarity in a few weeks.

One thing that knaws at me is the differences which are quite large. For 75% of the choir group to become symptomatic and all the ones tested were PCR positive and yet 10x more asymptomatic v symptomatic elsewhere seems irreconcilable.

This need to be understood.
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Old 19th April 2020, 05:56 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
The photos and video always show a ground-level view, often with a telephoto lens. This tends to crowd very distant things together in the images, making the beaches look a lot more crowded than they actually are. When they switch to the drone or aerial shot, the actual distancing is quite evident.

But yes, from a side view the shots of people for example on the boardwalk does show that many of them are not maintaining their distances. I think for couples and small families that's ok, but I'd often see converging groups of people which are a no-no.
Here is a photo from this afternoon in Florida. I understand what telephoto lenses do, but I still think we see people that are too close. Also, I can't find a single mask on anyone.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg 099.jpg (111.6 KB, 32 views)
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Old 19th April 2020, 06:22 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Here is a photo from this afternoon in Florida. I understand what telephoto lenses do, but I still think we see people that are too close. Also, I can't find a single mask on anyone.
I suspect that the beach and outside in general is a pretty low risk place with or w/o masks. Lots of dilution and air movement. Much better than being in a grocery line for 10 minutes even with masks.
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Old 19th April 2020, 06:26 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Me too! We are going to know a lot more in the next few weeks.



Yep. OTOH, we will get a lot of info on which tests actually produce results consistent with what they stated during their emergency approvals as well as the few that have gone through the full FDA process.

I expect a lot more clarity in a few weeks.

One thing that knaws at me is the differences which are quite large. For 75% of the choir group to become symptomatic and all the ones tested were PCR positive and yet 10x more asymptomatic v symptomatic elsewhere seems irreconcilable.

This need to be understood.
Good point. Do we know if any of the symptomatic persons had such mild symptoms were they not looking for them they would have ignored them?

I'm more skeptical of the results of the 200 random people though. That's the number that seems way off.

We still don't know the actual specificity of these tests (false positives).
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Old 19th April 2020, 06:44 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I suspect that the beach and outside in general is a pretty low risk place with or w/o masks. Lots of dilution and air movement. Much better than being in a grocery line for 10 minutes even with masks.
Does that mean it's ok to include this level of risk along with standing in grocery aisles?

I see an argument for curbside pickup only at stores more than I see a "people crowding beaches and parks is fine" one.

YMMV.
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Old 19th April 2020, 06:55 PM   #175
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Noteworthy from New Zealand:

We've been carrying out community testing over the last four days, concentrating on areas near existing clusters and ~1600 tests haven't found a single case. If there were ten or more times the number of infections as official cases, someone would have shown up. Small numbers, but in a small population and the equivalent of USA testing 120,000 people randomly.

That's very good news for us, and with Aussie starting community testing today or tomorrow, we might be able to keep this end of the world safe.

Feel free to come down from the end of the month, but you'll be spending the first 14 days locked own in quarantine.
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Old 19th April 2020, 06:56 PM   #176
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Ummm, if serology tests are showing up the fact that many people actually have the disease without symptoms, vs the 90% of people with symptom who are negative for the nasal swab test, does that put the lie to the statement that asymptomatic people can spread the disease?

Maybe I need to draw a picture, big blocks, little blocks, arrows,.... Venn diagram maybe?
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Old 19th April 2020, 07:01 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Ummm, if serology tests ...
...results are reliable and peer-reviewed, they will be worth discussing.

In the meantime, I have a non-peer-reviewed geology paper that shows some amazingly profitable gold mines just waiting to be dug up, so PM me anytime if you're interested.
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Old 19th April 2020, 07:39 PM   #178
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According to a NY Times article, runners can drag exhaled droplets up to 30 feet behind them and even walkers can drag exhaled droplets up to 15 feet behind them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/w...istancing.html
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Old 19th April 2020, 07:49 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
According to a NY Times article, runners can drag exhaled droplets up to 30 feet behind them and even walkers can drag exhaled droplets up to 15 feet behind them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/w...istancing.html
I looked at the paper briefly. I'm not sure how many droplets wouldn't just come back at hit the runner who spewed them out.

The air dynamics OTOH look otherwise valid.
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Old 19th April 2020, 07:55 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
According to a NY Times article, runners can drag exhaled droplets up to 30 feet behind them and even walkers can drag exhaled droplets up to 15 feet behind them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/w...istancing.html
Runners are also exhaling deeply and strongly.

While there is dilution from distance, recent research has show normal breathing produces some droplets and aerosols. Talking produces about 10x more. And loud talking 100x more. Seems pretty obvious that people singing and runners would produce even more. So it's probably good advice to keep a good distance outside from joggers and people shouting.

Baseball isn't going to be the same for a while.
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Old 19th April 2020, 08:01 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
According to a NY Times article, runners can drag exhaled droplets up to 30 feet behind them and even walkers can drag exhaled droplets up to 15 feet behind them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/w...istancing.html
That is behind a paywall. This one is not https://www.wired.com/story/are-runn...ding-covid-19/

Quote:
His team concluded that cyclists and runners have to stay much farther than 6 feet from a runner or rider in front of them to avoid inhaling droplets or having them land on their bodies. He calculated safe distances for each sport: That 65 feet is needed when riding a bike at 18 miles per hour, 33 feet while running at a 6:44 minutes-per-mile pace, or 16 feet while walking at a normal pace.
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Old 19th April 2020, 08:49 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I looked at the paper briefly. I'm not sure how many droplets wouldn't just come back at hit the runner who spewed them out.
In the diagrams that are in the paper (http://www.urbanphysics.net/COVID19_Aero_Paper.pdf) it does show that a lot (most?) of the heavier droplets do end up on the face, neck and shoulders of the person exhaling.
Quote:
The air dynamics OTOH look otherwise valid.
It should be noted that all of these modelling, measurements and “distancing advice” do not factor in any wind at all, be it headwind, tailwind or crosswind.
All the modelling is based on wind tunnel experiments where only the wake created by movement of air over an immobile 1/4 scale “mannequin”, whose limbs were also in a fixed position, is the basis for the modelling.

There are way more variables that need to be taken into account before these recommendations should be entertained as vaguely accurate in the real world (IMO).
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Old 19th April 2020, 10:05 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Runners are also exhaling deeply and strongly.

While there is dilution from distance, recent research has show normal breathing produces some droplets and aerosols. Talking produces about 10x more. And loud talking 100x more. Seems pretty obvious that people singing and runners would produce even more. So it's probably good advice to keep a good distance outside from joggers and people shouting.

Baseball isn't going to be the same for a while.
They must wear masks!
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Old 19th April 2020, 10:19 PM   #184
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The Diamond Princess COVID-19 death toll is now up to 13 out of 712 people that tested positive about half of whom did not show symptoms. Virtually all passengers and crew were tested when they left the ship. Originally it was 7. Apparently the probability of death has a long tail as most all the infections would have occurred almost 2 months ago.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:05 AM   #185
Pixel42
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Feel free to come down from the end of the month, but you'll be spending the first 14 days locked own in quarantine.
That means the end of international tourism, as that's how long people typically go abroad for.

Not saying you're wrong, just pointing out the consequence.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:19 AM   #186
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Allegedly all tourists who come here have a 14 day quarantine. But the missile button governor will not enforce it

So we still have plenty of tourists coming in, while the locals arent allowed to go outside
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:25 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

...

At the moment, the only numbers I trust implicitly are ours, South Korea's, Germany's and Iceland's. Aussie's getting close, but they haven't started random testing yet.

...
We're not quite at random testing yet, but there was an announcement in the media yesterday along these lines:

"Anyone who has symptoms of anything, can come to the drive-through clinics and be tested for coronavirus."

They listed things like headache, fever, sore throat, runny nose, upset stomach, mild cough etc.

Broadening the qualifications for a test that much, would have to increase the chances of finding more positives (if they're out there).

I'm worried about the number of cases that will eventuate from the 600 people that have just arrived here in South Australia.

They're in forced quarantine, enforced by the Army, for two weeks.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:42 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
The Diamond Princess COVID-19 death toll is now up to 13 out of 712 people that tested positive about half of whom did not show symptoms. Virtually all passengers and crew were tested when they left the ship. Originally it was 7. Apparently the probability of death has a long tail as most all the infections would have occurred almost 2 months ago.
Yeah, I find it amazing they're still in ICU after all that time. I'd think they're pretty likely to die.

Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
That means the end of international tourism, as that's how long people typically go abroad for.

Not saying you're wrong, just pointing out the consequence.
We're all well aware of that, and it hardly matters, because opening up for tourism would be a good way of getting to total shutdown again.

However, if we can stamp the virus out entirely, domestic tourism will take up most of the slack. Not to mention most other countries will have air travel suspended for some time.

Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
They're in forced quarantine, enforced by the Army, for two weeks.
That's what needs to be done - the idea of voluntary quarantine has been seen to fail, so isn't an option.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:44 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Allegedly all tourists who come here have a 14 day quarantine. But the missile button governor will not enforce it

So we still have plenty of tourists coming in, while the locals arent allowed to go outside
[Looks for poster's location under their avatar, but finds they haven't bothered to fill it in]

[Tries to remember where poster lives, fails]
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:47 AM   #190
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Hawaii, the home of the Missile Button Governor

And his department of health that doesnt believe in asymptomatic transmission
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:49 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
They must wear masks!
In another thread, someone is claiming that that has been no transmission between people in an outdoor setting.
I'm awaiting the poster to cite some sources - but it is an intriguing claim.
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:51 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
That means the end of international tourism, as that's how long people typically go abroad for.

Not saying you're wrong, just pointing out the consequence.
i think it will inevitably be the consequence unless someone comes up with a 100% accurate test that can be done in less than an hour. Airline passengers will be tested before they board and when they arrive.

Perhaps there will be bilateral tourism agreements between countries that are completely free of covid-19. (Direct flights from Iceland to NZ! lol)
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:13 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
The Diamond Princess COVID-19 death toll is now up to 13 out of 712 people that tested positive about half of whom did not show symptoms. Virtually all passengers and crew were tested when they left the ship. Originally it was 7. Apparently the probability of death has a long tail as most all the infections would have occurred almost 2 months ago.
There are so many unknowns that it is a little difficult to come to hard and fast conclusions.


Incubation period estimates vary, but some blow out to 24 days.

If you use maximum incubation/symptom/hospitialisation/ICU hospitalisation estimates, it is qute easy for some to have only been in ICU for a week or so, e.g.,

For instance, by March 1 all crew and passengers had been evacuated.
We know that the test for coronavirus isn't perfect - numbers like 30% false negatives have been floated.
So, some people may not have shown any symptoms when tested positive when they left the ship.
They may well have been infected as they left the ship.
With an maximum 21+ day incubation period, a number of people may not show any symptoms until late March.
If their condition worsened during the symptomatic phase (1-7 days) we're now into early April.
Some would have recovered but some may develop severe illness. 1-3 days?
Now we we're into mid-April. That's only a week or so ago.

We don't know how many were hospitalised or when, so it is all conjecture.
We don't know how many may have been released from hospital only to contract a secondary infection due to their immune system being compromised, so it is all conjecture.
We don't know if they were were clear of COVID-19, but caught it from a partner who was presymptomatic, so it is all conjecture.
We don't even know if some may have caught it from a totally different source and not on the cruise liner, so it is all conjecture.

I used presymptomatic instead of asymptomatic as a probablility as the World Health Organisation claims that,
"There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission."
They do not discount the possibility, but so far they have not found evidence that it has occurred. Which is interesting.
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:50 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
According to a NY Times article, runners can drag exhaled droplets up to 30 feet behind them and even walkers can drag exhaled droplets up to 15 feet behind them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/w...istancing.html
Yeah but at some point you've got to go outside. There will never be zero risk unless we're all dead.
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:26 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
If you don't know if it is true or not, look into it before passing unsupported speculation on.
The other way to look at it is that it's something I heard from a healthcare official. Looking in to it revealed nothing that I could substantiate, but since I am not a medical professional I didn't want to dismiss out of hand something that a medical professional had said just because I, as a layman, couldn't substantiate it through googling.

So instead, when it was relevant to the subject that was being discussed, I posted it along with the caveat that I was not vouching for its veracity - safe in the knowledge that I was posting to a board which is generally populated with sceptical and intelligent people who don't accept things as true just because they have heard someone random on the internet say it, and some of whom have the medical knowledge that I'm missing and will therefore be able to better evaluate the veracity or otherwise of the claim.

As you have done.
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Old 20th April 2020, 05:03 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
(bold is mine)

I did not dismiss it. I said we shouldn't be passing on unsupported assertions. You said: But remember you said it in support of Squeegee's post:If you don't know if it is true or not, look into it before passing unsupported speculation on.

You implied Squeegee's post contained a valid hypothesis, fine, I said prove it. Prove it is a valid hypothesis, don't just assert it without any source. Take the time to look into it before posting it where you know people will run with it.

OK, good, here is something valid we can actually discuss. It does not support the assertion anything on our hands kills enveloped viruses. But it's a start to find out if that is the case or not.

The majority of that paper is about inflammatory reactions on the skin, not like the macrophages in the lung that actually attack microorganisms.

Skin Immune Landscape: Inside and Outside the OrganismThe article is clear that any immune response against a microbial assault requires it to be triggered.

This article supports the assertion the immune response has to be triggered. It isn't like our skin contains natural disinfectants:
The Dynamics of the Skinís Immune System

Given the enveloped coronaviruses aren't likely to upset the skin biome unless that is the virus' target cell (like HSV and HPV) we need to look further.


I didn't have good luck looking for coronavirus on hands, too many articles on hand washing show up. But I did find some related articles:

Survival of influenza virus on hands and fomites in community and laboratory settings.

H1N1 doesn't survive long on hands but the exact time isn't in the abstract. However:

Fomite-mediated transmission as a sufficient pathway: a comparative analysis across three viral pathogens

This suggests it is the viability of the microorganisms on hands is related to the pathogen more than the skin surface.


To find out if coronavirus is more easily transferred by a gloved hand than an ungloved hand is a moot point if they both can become contaminated and transfer the virus. If you add the fact skin oils can act as a transfer medium....

But if someone wants to investigate the glove vs hands claim, have at it.


So are we chit-chatting or are we discussing evidence based information?
I think we are still chit-chatting because your citations address whether skin can be contaminated and transmit virus, certainly unquestionable, and resident skin microbiomes, invasive organisms, and immune responses. All interesting. Especially the limited life span of influenza on skin and formites. I will need to look at that article in more detail using my proxy access to get past the paywall. Thanks for the links. But my original question of survival of viruses in general on skin vs environmental surfaces remains open. Fine. I did not invoke the possibility of an immune response so much as an inherent anti-viral chemical, etc.

I understand the concern about not passing on unsupported speculation that might place people at risk. I fail to see how speculation about anti-microbials on skin fits in that category. Any more than speculation about the effect of sunlight. I clearly indicated that I didnít know. There is much yet to be worked out and thinking about possibilities to be tested is legit. I believe I clearly indicated in my posts that even if true it wasnít sufficient to prevent covid-19 transmission. I never suggested people should avoid washing their hands. BTW I was not responding to Squeegeeís post but to your abrupt dismissal of it.

But again I thank you for the citations.

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Old 20th April 2020, 05:19 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
According to a NY Times article, runners can drag exhaled droplets up to 30 feet behind them and even walkers can drag exhaled droplets up to 15 feet behind them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/w...istancing.html
What about on a windy day? Would a person standing still in a 9 mph wind also spread contamination downwind for 30 feet?
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Old 20th April 2020, 06:21 AM   #198
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Hawaii, the home of the Missile Button Governor
Are you in north Oahu?
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Old 20th April 2020, 06:42 AM   #199
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
That is behind a paywall. This one is not https://www.wired.com/story/are-runn...ding-covid-19/
Originally Posted by from article
His team concluded that cyclists and runners have to stay much farther than 6 feet from a runner or rider in front of them to avoid inhaling droplets or having them land on their bodies. He calculated safe distances for each sport: That 65 feet is needed when riding a bike at 18 miles per hour, 33 feet while running at a 6:44 minutes-per-mile pace, or 16 feet while walking at a normal pace.
There's little difference between someone running at ten miles per hour, and a 10mph breeze blowing past a stationary or walking person. Okay, the ground isn't moving, but the ground has little effect on the airstream, compared to a person, at these speeds. So, if the study is correct, one shouldn't stand downwind of people standing or walking.

And probably not downwind of a building with open windows either - especially if you can hear coughing from inside, or the building is an old people's care home.
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Old 20th April 2020, 08:44 AM   #200
William Parcher
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Oh, and the other things that can happen...


Broadway star Nick Cordero had his leg amputated due to coronavirus complications

Originally Posted by CNN
Broadway actor Nick Cordero is recovering after having his right leg amputated following complications with coronavirus, his wife said.

The Tony Award-nominated star has been battling coronavirus for more than two weeks. His wife, Amanda Kloots, has kept fans informed by sharing updates on his health on her Instagram.

Saturday was day 18 of him being sedated in the intensive care unit, Kloots told her social media followers. While hospitalized, he started having clotting issues on his right leg, and could not get blood down to his toes. The blood thinners he got to fix the clotting issues were affecting his blood pressure and causing internal bleeding in his intestines, Kloots said...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/enter...rnd/index.html
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