ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , Coronavirus , diseases

Reply
Old 21st April 2020, 03:36 PM   #281
Myriad
Hyperthetical
 
Myriad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Betwixt
Posts: 16,293
Interesting detail in Massachusetts: there have been nearly 2000 deaths attributed officially to Covid-19 in the state. (It will likely top 2000 tomorrow.) The mean age for all those deaths is 81.

I suspect that mean age will drift lower, because there are younger people in critical care who are still alive but might not recover longer term. More than half the deaths so far are reported as occurring in long-term care facilities rather than in hospital ICUs. It seems likely many of those had very poor health to begin with, and perhaps were on various levels of DNR orders as well. It will become a huge scandal if it turns out that some of them weren't given the care they or their families would have preferred just because they were already in frail condition. One medical veterans' facility is already under investigation for the large number of deaths occurring there.

All in all, though, 81 is a higher mean than I would have expected based on stats from elsewhere.

I've been getting my MA stats from these daily reports: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download
__________________
A zÝmbie once bit my sister...
Myriad is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:47 PM   #282
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,540
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Perhaps the most significant fact would be this implies aerosol spread is rare, predominantly it is droplet / contact spread. More like flu than measles.
Yep. At least rare after air has gone through the ship's AC. OTOH, it's also unlikely the passengers were doing very much talking let alone singing. Also, there is a study that indicates coronavirus is quite well filtered by surgical masks unlike flu virus. Might well be the case with the ship's AC. Measles is a whole other beast. Good thing measles herd immunity is so high outside of clusters of anti-vaxers and even they benefit from those around them that aren't nutty anti-vaxers.

Overall, I think that aerosols are likely an issue in enclosed areas with lots of people that are often talking, shouting or singing which greatly amplifies all droplets/aerosols, even if separated by 1-2m. But aerosols are probably a small part of transmissions in most situations.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:51 PM   #283
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 8,825
Here is a graphic tale, there are few being posted of those who have suffered this extremely dangerous virus.
The herald is sensibly not paywalling these important experiences.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12326589

Do not meddle with this if you can avoid, the world is replete with idiots right now.
Sadly that includes the designer of the Swedish experiment, which is an important thread in Social issues I just discovered.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:52 PM   #284
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 81,027
Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Maybe, maybe not. The police and military already have dogs trained to sniff out things of interest, like narcotics and landmines. I think the dogs can be trained to sniff more than one thing. It would take time to train them properly, though.
Lots and lots of time, not just to train the dogs but to set up training and breeding programs.
__________________
Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:55 PM   #285
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 4,099
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, I just hope the litle wankers don't all give it to their grandparents.



More importantly, we'll see how many of their relatives die.



You're determined to prove your maths ability is non-existent, aren't you?

UK is currently showing a mortality rate of almost 15%. If we add in another 50% of uncounted deaths, that would make it over 20%.

Sure, they're not counting a lot of cases, and might have missed 90%, so the mortality rate in UK is probably closer to 2%, like most places with reliable data.

Then, if 75% of the deaths are among the elderly and frail - and it certainly is not any higher than that - it's only got a mortality rate of 0.5%, barely three times worse than seasonal 'flus.

I'm not even going to mention the thousands of people with permanent damage from organ failures caused by the disease - your attempts to portray the disease as not very dangerous to younger people are nonsense unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.

It's a fact that over 20% of ICU admissions are people aged under 55: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

Note that if you look at under 65s, over a third of cases admitted to ICU fall in that group.

You are woefully wrong.

Again.
The problem is that ICU admission are not representative of the population that is ill. ICU will preferentially select younger people and your likelihood of admission falls with age. Most deaths will occur out of ICU in the older population.

Currently 15% E&W deaths are in under 65. See reference in my post above. This is ONS data ie 2 weeks behind but includes deaths out of hospital, so may include more elderly patients dying in nursing homes than hospital death figures.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:55 PM   #286
Dr.Sid
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 2,733
Originally Posted by marting View Post
Study of the Diamond Princess COVID-19 infection sequences.

Summary:

So apparently most infections were within a cabin containing multiple people. And even though many crew members were also infected, there appears to not be significant spread form crew to passengers.

If this study is accurate, then serological tests amongst the 70% of passengers that never tested positive should also be quite low. Anyone doing that?

As a side note: 1.8% with a positive test died and they tested virtually everyone on the ship/

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...04.09.20059113
In general it seems that being inside for longer period is the key. Buses, ships, parties, care homes.
Dr.Sid is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:56 PM   #287
pipelineaudio
Illuminator
 
pipelineaudio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,748
Hawaii is now cooking the books and faking tests. We had a MASSIVE drop in reported cases and yet 75% of the now reported cases are requiring hospitalization

This is some really disgusting behavior, though expected and luckily predicted
__________________
Don't fear the REAPER, embrace it
pipelineaudio is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 03:56 PM   #288
arthwollipot
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him
 
arthwollipot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Location, Location
Posts: 66,855
By the way, if you want a more granular discussion of COVID-19, the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe Forum has a whole subforum with threads discussing a variety of aspects of the disease, including economics, politics, humour, etc. If you're not already a member, you ought to be able to find the answer to the security question with a small amount of research. If not, just PM me. If you listen to the show, you should already know the answer.

Listen to the show. It's good.
__________________
Self-described nerd.

My mom told me she tries never to make fun of people for not knowing something.
- Randall Munroe
arthwollipot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 04:04 PM   #289
William Parcher
Show me the monkey!
 
William Parcher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,039
Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
The ACE2 receptor in the dog has a low homology to that of human, so not likely. Cats are more similar though.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...04.16.045302v1
Well, then let's not think of the sniffer dog becoming infected...

Let's instead just think of the dog inhaling viruses and then exhaling them. If the dog is moving from one test subject to another could it not transfer the virus from subject to subject without getting "infected" itself?

Unlike medical equipment and supplies, the sniffer dog is never sterilized.
__________________
Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.
William Parcher is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 04:04 PM   #290
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
 
Skeptic Ginger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 81,027
Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Putting aside that your sniffer dog could become infected and die; these sniffer dogs could become spreaders.
And don't forget, we don't know what would happen to a dog exposed purposefully over and over. That could easily change the infection particulars.
__________________
Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
Skeptic Ginger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 04:05 PM   #291
pipelineaudio
Illuminator
 
pipelineaudio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,748
Is there anywhere else in the world where hospitalization has gone from 5% of cases to 75% of cases in a week?
__________________
Don't fear the REAPER, embrace it
pipelineaudio is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 04:15 PM   #292
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 25,495
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Currently 15% E&W deaths are in under 65.
15% or more looks to be where it's headed.

USA: 25%
Italy: 18%
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 04:20 PM   #293
Myriad
Hyperthetical
 
Myriad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Betwixt
Posts: 16,293
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Currently 15% E&W deaths are in under 65. See reference in my post above. This is ONS data ie 2 weeks behind but includes deaths out of hospital, so may include more elderly patients dying in nursing homes than hospital death figures.

Eastern and Western? Excessive and wasteful? Elderly and wise? Eager and willing?
__________________
A zÝmbie once bit my sister...
Myriad is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 04:31 PM   #294
sir drinks-a-lot
Illuminator
 
sir drinks-a-lot's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Cole Valley, CA
Posts: 4,329
Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Interesting detail in Massachusetts: there have been nearly 2000 deaths attributed officially to Covid-19 in the state. (It will likely top 2000 tomorrow.) The mean age for all those deaths is 81.

I suspect that mean age will drift lower, because there are younger people in critical care who are still alive but might not recover longer term. More than half the deaths so far are reported as occurring in long-term care facilities rather than in hospital ICUs. It seems likely many of those had very poor health to begin with, and perhaps were on various levels of DNR orders as well. It will become a huge scandal if it turns out that some of them weren't given the care they or their families would have preferred just because they were already in frail condition. One medical veterans' facility is already under investigation for the large number of deaths occurring there.

All in all, though, 81 is a higher mean than I would have expected based on stats from elsewhere.

I've been getting my MA stats from these daily reports: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download
That is pretty interesting considering that the average life expectancy in the US is only 78 years. It seems really high.
__________________
I don't like that man. I must get to know him better. --Abraham Lincoln
sir drinks-a-lot is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 05:01 PM   #295
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 25,495
Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
That is pretty interesting considering that the average life expectancy in the US is only 78 years. It seems really high.
Seems logical to me, but far too early to be definitive.

1 - rest homes have been shown to be excellent places for the virus to spread, with very high infection rates, so would be disproportionate in early stages of an epidemic.

2 - really old and sick people are likely to die pretty fast, skewing early stats in their favour.

3 - when you have 1 ventilator and have the choice of a 95 year old with one lung, or a 54 year old school teacher, which one are you going to ventilate?

Early in an outbreak, I'd be amazed if the elderly didn't form a huge percentage of victims.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 05:07 PM   #296
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 25,495
Interesting data point on a mild case managing to not infect his flatmates, despite sharing living, kitchen & bathroom spaces: https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queens...roves-be-wrong
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 05:21 PM   #297
JeanTate
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 3,760
Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Eastern and Western? Excessive and wasteful? Elderly and wise? Eager and willing?
England and Wales.
JeanTate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 05:24 PM   #298
Skeptical Greg
Agave Wine Connoisseur
 
Skeptical Greg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Just past ' Resume Speed ' .
Posts: 16,173
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And don't forget, we don't know what would happen to a dog exposed purposefully over and over. That could easily change the infection particulars.
No, we don't..
__________________
" The main problem I have with the idea of heaven, is the thought of
spending eternity with most of the people who claim to be going there. "
Skeptical Greg is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 05:30 PM   #299
Roboramma
Penultimate Amazing
 
Roboramma's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 13,839
Not entirely sure what to think about this, but it's something to consider anyway:

https://marginalrevolution.com/margi...-my-email.html
Quote:
The 1918 disease was most dangerous to people with strong immune systems (young adults), and those people were also the ones that were most active in society and had most interpersonal contacts. Absent any general lockdown, those people were infected first and didnít benefit from the long-run equilibrium of ďherd immunity.Ē The general lockdowns during the 1918 disease epidemic reduced these vulnerable peopleís infection probability relatively more than that of the less vulnerable people. This improved sorting and thereby saved lives.

The 2020 disease works in the opposite way. It is the most dangerous to old, sick people with weakest immune systems. Those people are relatively inactive at normal times and donít have a large number of social contacts. The general lockdown increases those vulnerable peopleís relative infection probability, because their routine doesnít change much while less vulnerable people social distance. This adverse sorting due to general lockdowns causes more deaths, in theory at least.

In my opinion, the 1918 lockdown evidence should be interpreted as evidence of the importance of sorting, not evidence that general lockdowns are the right thing to do now.
__________________
"... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together."
Isaac Asimov
Roboramma is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 05:35 PM   #300
Sherkeu
Graduate Poster
 
Sherkeu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Disneyland
Posts: 1,440
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And don't forget, we don't know what would happen to a dog exposed purposefully over and over. That could easily change the infection particulars.
Poor dogs. If they lose their sense of smell when they get infected, who can they tell? arf arf!

In studies I have seen, it is the cats that catch it pretty well. We all know cats aren't doing anyone's bidding.

It would be interesting to know if there is a correlation between victims and pet ownership and what type/number of those pets they had in the home.
Sherkeu is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 06:00 PM   #301
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 17,850
Dogs can sniff this and that, but anybody know of any dog that can sniff any virus?
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 06:04 PM   #302
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 17,850
How do they save a virus for study? Is there a natural substance that mimics that method? It would be something that might soak it up, be hard to kill it in, and release it later. If it had regional variations on usage it might account for the regional differences.
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 06:17 PM   #303
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 17,850
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Sorry mate, you must have a different meaning for the word "minuscule" to me. I always think of 25% as a "hefty chunk" rather than "minuscule", and this is your direct quote:




And this, again?




Which has been thoroughly debunked, but keep beating that drum, mate.
25% of fatalities IS minuscule. It's umm 1,700 out of 5,000,000 New Yorkers under 65 years old. One in 2,500. Miniscule.

The Santa Clara County Test used a biased sample, it came up with the debunked 85x. The LA County study aka USC (eta Sood and Simon antibody study) used a random sample. Test was made in USA, Premier was the brand. Error bars are still considerable, 200K-400k, with 300K in the middle. But it is the only random whole population study we have. It is not based on "people with symptoms". or "Health care givers" with high exposre. I look forward to the NY State study, 14,000 per week, but I haven't looked in to it's robustness.
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.

Last edited by casebro; 21st April 2020 at 06:19 PM.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 06:22 PM   #304
Elagabalus
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 5,820
Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Not entirely sure what to think about this, but it's something to consider anyway:

https://marginalrevolution.com/margi...-my-email.html
More pet theories about COVID-19? Why not just read this thread?
Elagabalus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 06:32 PM   #305
William Parcher
Show me the monkey!
 
William Parcher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25,039
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Dogs can sniff this and that, but anybody know of any dog that can sniff any virus?
I'm not certain but I don't think these disease sniffer dogs are smelling the pathogen itself but instead are smelling its effect on the body.
__________________
Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.
William Parcher is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 06:34 PM   #306
Ulf Nereng
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Norway
Posts: 323
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Dogs can sniff this and that, but anybody know of any dog that can sniff any virus?
They can apparently sniff a variety of diseases, including cancer and malaria. They do it by detecting subtle changes in a person's body odor.

https://www.businessinsider.com/snif...20-4?r=US&IR=T
Ulf Nereng is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 07:45 PM   #307
arthwollipot
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him
 
arthwollipot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Location, Location
Posts: 66,855
Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
They can apparently sniff a variety of diseases, including cancer and malaria. They do it by detecting subtle changes in a person's body odor.

https://www.businessinsider.com/snif...20-4?r=US&IR=T
Unfortunately the actual scientific evidence for that is poor to nonexistent, despite badly-sourced reporting in the media.
__________________
Self-described nerd.

My mom told me she tries never to make fun of people for not knowing something.
- Randall Munroe
arthwollipot is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 08:19 PM   #308
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,540
Here's a good analysis of the Stanford Santa Clara Study statistics flaw I had pointed out earlier. Lots of good additional questions re cross-reactivity that can cause false positives. That could also be a factor in the LA County and NY results.

So it seems we should take these serological studies with some grains of salt. At least until more are done. Especially over time to show if the growth tracks case growth.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.e...us-prevalence/
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 08:23 PM   #309
Steve
Philosopher
 
Steve's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,043
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Unfortunately the actual scientific evidence for that is poor to nonexistent, despite badly-sourced reporting in the media.
That particular article did not provide any scientific evidence. It is purely the opinion of one doctor.
__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"
Steve is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 08:30 PM   #310
EHocking
Philosopher
 
EHocking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 7,597
NVM
__________________
"A closed mouth gathers no feet"
"Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke
"It's all god's handiwork, there's little quality control applied", Fox26 reporter on Texas granite
You can't make up anything anymore. The world itself is a satire. All you're doing is recording it. Art Buchwald

Last edited by EHocking; 21st April 2020 at 08:36 PM.
EHocking is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 09:06 PM   #311
Roboramma
Penultimate Amazing
 
Roboramma's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 13,839
Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
More pet theories about COVID-19? Why not just read this thread?
Can you explain what you mean by this?
__________________
"... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together."
Isaac Asimov
Roboramma is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 09:29 PM   #312
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 17,850
Originally Posted by marting View Post
Here's a good analysis of the Stanford Santa Clara Study statistics flaw I had pointed out earlier. Lots of good additional questions re cross-reactivity that can cause false positives. That could also be a factor in the LA County and NY results.

So it seems we should take these serological studies with some grains of salt. At least until more are done. Especially over time to show if the growth tracks case growth.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.e...us-prevalence/
The " Sood and Simon antibody study"/ LA County study eliminated the selection bias in the Santa Clara study. Not perfect, still the large error bars. But geeze, death rates of hospitalized patients are meaningless when what we want to know is the risk to the general population.

Interesting tidbit, in the comments at the link you provided, a Dutch study in mentioned, apparently it too had a 3% rate. But my eyes are buggy, an allergy to Chipotle peppers turned up this week. Started when I sewed up a mask from a cloth that had been wrapped around some ripe Jalapenos. Can't win.
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 09:40 PM   #313
Elagabalus
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 5,820
Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Can you explain what you mean by this?

Your link goes to an article entitled "From my Email" where the author quotes an email (which you quoted). And then, everyone makes comments. Those comments seem about as useful as the ones made right here in this thread. Why go there when you can have it here?
Elagabalus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 09:46 PM   #314
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,540
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
The " Sood and Simon antibody study"/ LA County study eliminated the selection bias in the Santa Clara study. Not perfect, still the large error bars. But geeze, death rates of hospitalized patients are meaningless when what we want to know is the risk to the general population.
The problem with the Santa Clara study is a glaring oversight. The expected number of positives of the 3330 people sampled, assuming every single one of them was actually negative, is within the 95% lower range of the test's specificity. So selection bias is, while interesting, not the principal problem with the study.

However, the LA study, while it only had 800+ subjects, was a much better random selection. More to the point, it used the same test with the same specificity. But the percentages of positives were well outside the 95% false positive lower band. So that one was meaningful.

Future tests in a population with a higher case load such as NY will provide much better estimates of how many exposed with sub-clinical people are in the population. Once the percentages get above 5 to 10 the specificity (false positive and cross-reactivity) issue will be far less a factor and we will have more dependable numbers. These tests are being done this week.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 10:04 PM   #315
pipelineaudio
Illuminator
 
pipelineaudio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,748
Hearing the OPV episode on TWIV, is it valid to think that the reason kids don't seem to get this as bad is that they are still in fighting mode, immune system wise from so many vaccines so recently?

Does this explain Iran after their extreme resistance to polio vaccines as they claimed they were made by the west to sterilize muslims?

Any data at all showing the effect of this among anti vaxxers?
__________________
Don't fear the REAPER, embrace it
pipelineaudio is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 10:27 PM   #316
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,540
Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Hearing the OPV episode on TWIV, is it valid to think that the reason kids don't seem to get this as bad is that they are still in fighting mode, immune system wise from so many vaccines so recently?

Does this explain Iran after their extreme resistance to polio vaccines as they claimed they were made by the west to sterilize muslims?

Any data at all showing the effect of this among anti vaxxers?
I doubt polio vaccines would have much impact on kids resistance to COVID-19 but kids do get a lot of colds and some percentage are coronavirus. I used to get colds all the time when I was a kid and got fewer as I got older. Probably been at least 10 years since I've had anything. Could be a bit of higher resistance from that I suppose. I vaguely remember seeing something indicating children are less likely to be infected from adults in family units but don't recall where I ran across it.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 10:35 PM   #317
pipelineaudio
Illuminator
 
pipelineaudio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,748
http://www.ihv.org/news/2020-News/Ca...-COVID-19.html

Some OPV vs Coronavirus stuff from Gallo
__________________
Don't fear the REAPER, embrace it

Last edited by pipelineaudio; 21st April 2020 at 10:45 PM.
pipelineaudio is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 10:50 PM   #318
marting
Graduate Poster
 
marting's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,540
Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
http://www.ihv.org/news/2020-News/Ca...-COVID-19.html

Some OPV vs Coronavirus stuff from Gallo
Interesting. So what he believes is that the polio vaccine activates a general, non-specific, immune response and that would be effective to some degree against COVID-19. That fits in with the idea that kids are more frequently exposed to all sorts of virus and would also have a more generally active immune system. Could be. Certainly worth trying.
__________________
Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.
marting is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 11:00 PM   #319
pipelineaudio
Illuminator
 
pipelineaudio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,748
There are some OPV trials coming up. https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-604/
__________________
Don't fear the REAPER, embrace it
pipelineaudio is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st April 2020, 11:10 PM   #320
Roboramma
Penultimate Amazing
 
Roboramma's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 13,839
Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
Your link goes to an article entitled "From my Email" where the author quotes an email (which you quoted). And then, everyone makes comments. Those comments seem about as useful as the ones made right here in this thread. Why go there when you can have it here?
I posted the quote because I thought the idea in the "From My Email" which I quoted was interesting, and worth considering. Do you have any comments on that idea?

I think that with well conducted test and trace, the point made by the anonymous email author is probably moot: there are other factors involved and hopefully we can actually lower the total number of infected, as well as skewing the proportions away from those most vulnerable by using the right measures when moving out of lockdown.

Nevertheless the point expressed seems to be something worth keeping in mind.

You seem to be suggesting that because the idea didn't come from an authority, it's worthless. Following that logic, your own comment is also worthless...
__________________
"... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together."
Isaac Asimov
Roboramma is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 09:06 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.