ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Brexit

Reply
Old 15th June 2020, 09:20 AM   #41
Ulf Nereng
Muse
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Norway
Posts: 505
Perhaps one day the citizens of Boston, Lincolnshire will rise up, shouting "No Chlorine Without Representation!", while throwing poultry in the ocean. It will be known as the Boston Chicken Party.

Last edited by Ulf Nereng; 15th June 2020 at 09:21 AM.
Ulf Nereng is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th June 2020, 09:35 AM   #42
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 29,378
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
...without citizenship, the right to vote or congressional representation.
Nitpick: Puerto Ricans are full US citizens but not represented in Congress because it is not a state. They are free to move to a state any time they like and then can vote there. Same applies to Guam, IIRC.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th June 2020, 09:37 AM   #43
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 29,104
The message today from our great Fuhrer? NOT about BLM, not a jot about the riots, the deaths, the care homes, Cummings, the ongoing PPE crisis, the fact he he is still running towards a No Deal cliff edge?
No, his message to the Nation today is Shop With Confidence.
It's our duty to go out and shop for Britain.
Captain_Swoop is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th June 2020, 11:30 AM   #44
Squeegee Beckenheim
Penultimate Amazing
 
Squeegee Beckenheim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 30,146
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I don't think that there'd be any desire for a 51st state - too many voters used to "socialised" medicine - much better just to have a tame client state willing to take substandard goods.....
I remember a Lenny Henry routine from the 80s or 90s where he said that the UK sees the US as kind of an ally, and the US sees the UK as kind of a warehouse.

The more things change, eh?
__________________
I don't trust atoms. They make up everything.
Squeegee Beckenheim is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th June 2020, 12:14 PM   #45
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Nitpick: Puerto Ricans are full US citizens but not represented in Congress because it is not a state. They are free to move to a state any time they like and then can vote there. Same applies to Guam, IIRC.
Thought they had a non-voting representative
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th June 2020, 12:48 PM   #46
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,078
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Thought they had a non-voting representative
No, that's Washingtonians, the DC sort.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th June 2020, 11:30 PM   #47
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The UK government has already clearly signalled that the UK is now perfectly happy to capitulate on food standards - and on anything else for that matter - for example, the NHS is also back on the table.
That's Brentryasajuniortradepartner (with singular e) for ya. Maybe a stint as a de-facto colony of the former colony will demonstrate to the Brexitards just why everyone with half a brain (or more) was looking down on them this whole time.

Then again, probably not.

It's only logical, really. UK wants to get away from EU and the only viable alternative is to join forces with the USA. The other alternatives are idiotic (Pacific partnership? please ...). USA is close enough for such a partnership to be at least possible and there are historical and linguistic ties between the two countries.

The fact USA is currently ruled by a wannabe dictator who seeks short term profit everywhere and UK as a place to loot just makes the change a bit worse for UK than it already was. UK was going from being first among equals to a junior partner and it won't be able to change that in the foreseeable future.

It's kind of funny, really. The UK-USA deal will leave UK with everything Brexiteers falsely claimed to hate about the EU and none of the upsides. They'll cheer for the deal too, no doubt.

I just hope the disaster we call "Trump presidency" acts as a catalyst for major reform within the USA and brings the country back into sanity. That would help. UK would still piggyback as the anchor the country is, but at least then we could have a reasonable western world back again. One can dream, at least.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 12:01 AM   #48
Mojo
Mostly harmless
 
Mojo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 33,284
Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I remember a Lenny Henry routine from the 80s or 90s where he said that the UK sees the US as kind of an ally, and the US sees the UK as kind of a warehouse.

Must have been the 90s. In the 80s they saw us as kind of an aircraft carrier.
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield

"The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky
Mojo is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 12:44 AM   #49
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's Brentryasajuniortradepartner (with singular e) for ya. Maybe a stint as a de-facto colony of the former colony will demonstrate to the Brexitards just why everyone with half a brain (or more) was looking down on them this whole time.
IMO the terms of the UK's relationship with the EU will be determined by the US. After a no-deal Brexit, the UK government will be desperate for a face-saving high profile trade deal. The US would be crazy not to step into the breach, regardless of who is President at the time.

This will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a fire sale trade deal with the world's sixth largest economy.

Despite the logistical difficulties (3,000 miles of ocean as opposed to 22 miles of Channel), the US will become our primary trade partner with all the economic damage that entails.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Then again, probably not.
The US trade deal will be the bestest trade deal ever as far as the Brexiteers are concerned, because the media they consume and the people they surround themselves with will tell them that.

Any slight downsides, like thousands dying annually from food-poisoning, the NHS falling apart and the majority of people working longer hours with fewer employment protections for less money will be considered a price worth paying for the freedoms to do whatever the US tells us whatever we want and/or the fault of Remoaners and/or the EU refusing to negotiate an EU trade deal.

The one thing that the Brexiteers will be sure of was that Brexit was a fabulous idea. Any shortcomings are down to other people.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's only logical, really. UK wants to get away from EU and the only viable alternative is to join forces with the USA. The other alternatives are idiotic (Pacific partnership? please ...). USA is close enough for such a partnership to be at least possible and there are historical and linguistic ties between the two countries.
That's my view. The Brexiteers like it because from their perspective, the US is an extension of the UK being white (minorities are airbrushed out), culturally similar and speaking the same language. The Brexiteers may even be able to twist it so that in their minds, the UK is the senior partner in some way.


Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The fact USA is currently ruled by a wannabe dictator who seeks short term profit everywhere and UK as a place to loot just makes the change a bit worse for UK than it already was. UK was going from being first among equals to a junior partner and it won't be able to change that in the foreseeable future.
Apparently the logic is that we were bullied into being first among equals by those horrid Europeans whereas the decision to be the US's lackey was made by us and is therefore a superior position to be in.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's kind of funny, really. The UK-USA deal will leave UK with everything Brexiteers falsely claimed to hate about the EU and none of the upsides. They'll cheer for the deal too, no doubt.
Yes, remarkable isn't it ?

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I just hope the disaster we call "Trump presidency" acts as a catalyst for major reform within the USA and brings the country back into sanity. That would help. UK would still piggyback as the anchor the country is, but at least then we could have a reasonable western world back again. One can dream, at least.

McHrozni
One can. I don't hold out much hope for the next 10-20 years. IMO the post-Covid economic crash will further fuel nationalism and populism which will make the likes of Trump and Johnson more rather than less likely to be popular
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 12:55 AM   #50
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO the terms of the UK's relationship with the EU will be determined by the US. After a no-deal Brexit, the UK government will be desperate for a face-saving high profile trade deal. The US would be crazy not to step into the breach, regardless of who is President at the time.

This will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a fire sale trade deal with the world's sixth largest economy.

Despite the logistical difficulties (3,000 miles of ocean as opposed to 22 miles of Channel), the US will become our primary trade partner with all the economic damage that entails.
That is what I'm talking about.

Quote:
That's my view. The Brexiteers like it because from their perspective, the US is an extension of the UK being white (minorities are airbrushed out), culturally similar and speaking the same language. The Brexiteers may even be able to twist it so that in their minds, the UK is the senior partner in some way.
I agree, but you might want to rethink the hilighted word.

Quote:
Yes, remarkable isn't it ?
Quite. It's cognitive dissonance at work with the proto-mind, really. X is bad, therefore Y is good, even if it has all the downsides you claimed X had (mostly false) and few of any of the upsides it had (mostly ignored) and no other redeeming features it's still good because X was bad.

Quote:
One can. I don't hold out much hope for the next 10-20 years. IMO the post-Covid economic crash will further fuel nationalism and populism which will make the likes of Trump and Johnson more rather than less likely to be popular
The silver lining is that Trump and BJ are both in power during the crash and can't use the economy to blame the other political option for. They'll try sure, but it won't be very effective. Plus it's not like the majority believes they anything but mishandled it. Their core supporters do of course, but they're, at best, a plurality of a majority. That can win elections in FPTP ... some of the time, but not with any regularity.

You no longer believe Trump's reelection is inevitable, I take it?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:07 AM   #51
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 13,137
It seems to me that the success of Brexit will depend on the US November election more than whatever happens in London/Brussels.
__________________
Prediction
https://xkcd.com/2370/
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:39 AM   #52
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
You no longer believe Trump's reelection is inevitable, I take it?

McHrozni
I never thought it was inevitable, merely likely.

I still think it's likely despite the economy being a mess and President Trump and the GOP messing up Coronavirus and the recent BLM protests because:
  • There are still over 4 months to go to the election, a lot can be forgotten in that time.
  • By then the economy will be picking up somewhat. It'll still be a basket case but President Trump and the GOP will be able to point at 4 or 5 months of rapid job gains and claim credit for it
  • There will likely be a grand announcement in October of a vaccine and/or cure which will give the Trump Administration a huge bump in the polls. By December it'll be shown to be a load of hooey but it'll have done its job
  • The recent issues in the Georgia primary has shown what can be expected in red states if people in certain neighbourhoods attempt to vote in person
  • Postal ballots will be nigh on impossible to get for certain demographics in red states
  • President Trump's base will for sure turn out to vote, whether the same is true of the opposition remains to be seen

I can see him getting 300+ electoral college votes with some unexpected results in red/purple states where voter turnout is very, very low in certain districts. A bunch of those states will be won with wafer thin margins.

OTOH Biden will win the popular vote by a huge margin but that will confirm that voter fraud is rife in blue states with tens of millions of ballots being cast illegally according to the GOP.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:41 AM   #53
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It seems to me that the success of Brexit will depend on the US November election more than whatever happens in London/Brussels.
More like the reason why Brexit failed will.

Either Trump wins and the trade deal with USA makes UK a de facto territory of USA, just with fewer rights; or else Biden wins and prioritises the EU instead, UK is forced into a relationship with the EU that has most of the downsides and few of the upsides of full membership, for the lack of other options.

BJ and Brexiteers celebrate it as a success in either case.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:47 AM   #54
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It seems to me that the success of Brexit will depend on the US November election more than whatever happens in London/Brussels.
I'm not sure that the result of the US election will necessarily make a huge difference. Whether it's a Democratic or GOP President and or Senate, the US will still want the same key things:
  • No UK/EU free trade agreement
  • Unfettered access to UK markets - including US agricultural products which don't currently adhere to UK standard
  • Access to the NHS

The only key point of difference was that Democrats (and some Republicans) were worried about the border in Ireland but Boris Johnson has already addressed this by saying that the border will now be in the Irish Sea (contrary to his many, many pronouncements in the past).

Regardless of who is in charge of the US, they'd be crazy not to demand the most favourable trade terms safe in the knowledge that the UK's Conservative government will be obliged to accept them.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:48 AM   #55
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I never thought it was inevitable, merely likely.

I still think it's likely despite the economy being a mess and President Trump and the GOP messing up Coronavirus and the recent BLM protests because:
  • There are still over 4 months to go to the election, a lot can be forgotten in that time.
  • By then the economy will be picking up somewhat. It'll still be a basket case but President Trump and the GOP will be able to point at 4 or 5 months of rapid job gains and claim credit for it
  • There will likely be a grand announcement in October of a vaccine and/or cure which will give the Trump Administration a huge bump in the polls. By December it'll be shown to be a load of hooey but it'll have done its job
  • The recent issues in the Georgia primary has shown what can be expected in red states if people in certain neighbourhoods attempt to vote in person
  • Postal ballots will be nigh on impossible to get for certain demographics in red states
  • President Trump's base will for sure turn out to vote, whether the same is true of the opposition remains to be seen

I can see him getting 300+ electoral college votes with some unexpected results in red/purple states where voter turnout is very, very low in certain districts. A bunch of those states will be won with wafer thin margins.

OTOH Biden will win the popular vote by a huge margin but that will confirm that voter fraud is rife in blue states with tens of millions of ballots being cast illegally according to the GOP.
We'll see in November. However I think you're overestimating his strength in many key points. The base is a major point - his base will turn out to vote for him, that is guaranteed ... but his base is ~20% of the electorate. Much of the rest will turn out to vote against him. People who are, at best, apathetic about Biden and probably wouldn't bother to vote will at least try to cast their vote, some of the time at a minimum, to make sure Trump isn't reelected.

The reelection is, of course, possible, primarily due to widespread vote suppression and other fraud Trump and his GOP are notorious for.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_yG_-K2MDo

Lincoln project are Republicans against Trump. They're at least effective in their advertising, which is a major weakness of the DNC.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:52 AM   #56
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The silver lining is that Trump and BJ are both in power during the crash and can't use the economy to blame the other political option for. They'll try sure, but it won't be very effective.
I think you underestimate the malleability of the electorate.

Boris Johnson won a stonking majority running a campaign which was essentially "If you're unhappy with the current government and their handling of Brexit, vote for me" - despite the fact that it was his party that had been in power for the last 10 years, his party that had been driving Brexit and he personally that had negotiated this "fantastic" Brexit deal, which has since turned out to be a terrible deal we had been forced into.

When Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have to face reelection in 4 years, they'll be able to successfully campaign as the party to vote for if you're unhappy with Brexit, the Coronavirus and the economic turmoil which has resulted from them.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 01:55 AM   #57
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think you underestimate the malleability of the electorate.

Boris Johnson won a stonking majority running a campaign which was essentially "If you're unhappy with the current government and their handling of Brexit, vote for me" - despite the fact that it was his party that had been in power for the last 10 years, his party that had been driving Brexit and he personally that had negotiated this "fantastic" Brexit deal, which has since turned out to be a terrible deal we had been forced into.

When Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have to face reelection in 4 years, they'll be able to successfully campaign as the party to vote for if you're unhappy with Brexit, the Coronavirus and the economic turmoil which has resulted from them.
The difference is that BJ voted on himself handling Brexit and not his party. He used Theresa May as a patsy, he was merely the guy who handled Brexit issues, the fact Brexit became such a mess was all her fault - which isn't even wrong, she did pick him as a member of the cabinet. It's just misleading and hypocritical as hell. Theresa May was in no small part to blame for the failure and BJ even resigned over the deal she approved of. He negotiated it yes, but Theresa May approved of it and tried to have it passed through HoC, BJ loudly opposed. He was in position to say he would've handled things differently as PM and anyone who didn't follow the proceedings closely enough might even believe him.

He's the PM now. Who will he blame for failures of his governmnet? The speaker?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; 16th June 2020 at 01:58 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 02:06 AM   #58
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
We'll see in November. However I think you're overestimating his strength in many key points. The base is a major point - his base will turn out to vote for him, that is guaranteed ... but his base is ~20% of the electorate.
And yet his approval rating is still 40% despite having a simultaneous public health disaster and economic crash. I think his base is much larger than 20%. If you still approve of him now IMO you must be part of his base.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Much of the rest will turn out to vote against him. People who are, at best, apathetic about Biden and probably wouldn't bother to vote will at least try to cast their vote, some of the time at a minimum, to make sure Trump isn't reelected.
They may cast their vote but while people who support President Trump will vote for him, those who are against him have more options. The Libertarians and Greens are marginal parties for sure, but they may be able to siphon away just enough Biden support to allow President Trump to win narrow victories in key states.

I think that there is still a sizeable BernieBro contingent who will not vote for Biden under any circumstances. For them, ideological purity is far more important than something as "trivial" as who is currently running the country

On the other side, there may be some religious fundamentalists who feel that they cannot vote for President Trump because he really is too flawed who absolutely cannot vote for Biden either because he advocates the wholesale slaughter of babies (or however fundies are misrepresenting a woman's right to choose these days).


Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The reelection is, of course, possible, primarily due to widespread vote suppression and other fraud Trump and his GOP are notorious for.
I think that the GOP will be working very hard to try and ensure that as few people from certain demographics vote as possible - especially in swing states.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_yG_-K2MDo

Lincoln project are Republicans against Trump. They're at least effective in their advertising, which is a major weakness of the DNC.

McHrozni
Yes, it's great stuff and I agree that the DNC have (so far) had very weak messaging.

IMO however, they are preaching to the choir.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 02:16 AM   #59
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
He's the PM now. Who will he blame for failures of his governmnet? The speaker?

McHrozni
Oh, there are plenty of alternatives, the top few being:
  • The ministers who, despite the faith that Boris Johnson put in them, failed to come up with effective policies to square the circle
  • The "fifth column" within his own party who tried, however ineffectively, to protect food standards, the farmers, British workers and so on
  • The rearguard action fought by Remoaners, the Labour Party and the UK "deep state" which undermined Boris Johnson's government
  • The EU
  • Factors completely beyond his control - like the Coronavirus

IMO enough people will buy this **** and/or will be convinced that the Starmer-led Labour Party are radical leftists in disguise that they will continue to cast their vote for the Conservatives.

Alternatively the Conservatives could bin Boris Johnson and call for the country to rally round the new leader.

Of course it Scotland achieves independence, then unless there is a schism in the Conservative Party and/or a huge electoral shift, the Conservatives will be in power in the rUK for the rest of my life (I'm 53 and plan to live for at least another 40 years).
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 02:41 AM   #60
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Meanwhile, today's Daily Express' front page headline is that a Brexit deal will be sealed in July because the EU is just about to fold

Other newspapers are reporting a thaw in relations, not least because Boris Johnson hasn't (yet) stormed out of these negotiations. The last "great" Boris DealTM involved the UK unilaterally folding on some of our "red-lines". I wonder whether this will be much the same ?
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 03:05 AM   #61
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Oh, there are plenty of alternatives, the top few being:
  • The ministers who, despite the faith that Boris Johnson put in them, failed to come up with effective policies to square the circle
  • The "fifth column" within his own party who tried, however ineffectively, to protect food standards, the farmers, British workers and so on
  • The rearguard action fought by Remoaners, the Labour Party and the UK "deep state" which undermined Boris Johnson's government
  • The EU
  • Factors completely beyond his control - like the Coronavirus

IMO enough people will buy this **** and/or will be convinced that the Starmer-led Labour Party are radical leftists in disguise that they will continue to cast their vote for the Conservatives.
I think this later point is more relevant than who BJ will be able to blame. It's not just how bad the Conservatives are but how weak the choice of alternatives is. Corbyn probably damaged Labour beyond repair for a number of years.

Quote:
Alternatively the Conservatives could bin Boris Johnson and call for the country to rally round the new leader.
This is more likely and would be fitting. A new Conservative leader might mean (somewhat) more sane policies too.

Quote:
Of course it Scotland achieves independence, then unless there is a schism in the Conservative Party and/or a huge electoral shift, the Conservatives will be in power in the rUK for the rest of my life (I'm 53 and plan to live for at least another 40 years).
If BJ remains in power for much longer and signs a slavish agreement with the USA that would be a "when", not an "if" (or "it" ).

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 03:17 AM   #62
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I think this later point is more relevant than who BJ will be able to blame. It's not just how bad the Conservatives are but how weak the choice of alternatives is. Corbyn probably damaged Labour beyond repair for a number of years.
My personal view is that Sir Keir Starmer might perform the same role as Neil Kinnock nearly 40 years ago, drive out the loonies (now Momentum, back then Militant) from the party and start to make the party electable.

It'll be the next Labour leader, or the one after that, who may be somewhat electable - but IMO will not be elected.


Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
This is more likely and would be fitting. A new Conservative leader might mean (somewhat) more sane policies too.
Au contraire, I fear that the next Conservative leader will be even more of a Brexophile than Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson will be portrayed as a political opportunist and late adopter of the Brexit message and someone who was far to willing to compromise with the EU. The failures of Brexit will be put down to failing to stick to our guns.

The next Conservative leader will be a lifelong Eurosceptic and the message will be clear. Had <Insert Name> been in charge then the EU would have folded, we'd have had our free access to EU markets without having to adhere to any of the rules.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
If BJ remains in power for much longer and signs a slavish agreement with the USA that would be a "when", not an "if" (or "it" ).

McHrozni
Only if the UK government allows another referendum to take place. Of course the Scottish government could unilaterally decide to allow a vote but that would put a successful vote for independence in a difficult position constitutionally.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 03:30 AM   #63
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Au contraire, I fear that the next Conservative leader will be even more of a Brexophile than Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson will be portrayed as a political opportunist and late adopter of the Brexit message and someone who was far to willing to compromise with the EU. The failures of Brexit will be put down to failing to stick to our guns.

The next Conservative leader will be a lifelong Eurosceptic and the message will be clear. Had <Insert Name> been in charge then the EU would have folded, we'd have had our free access to EU markets without having to adhere to any of the rules.
It depends a whole lot on how Brexit goes. If there's a no deal Brexit then the loonies will be discredited. Whether that changes anything or not remains to be seen.

If UK bends the knee before the EU then that is a real possibility.

Quote:
Only if the UK government allows another referendum to take place. Of course the Scottish government could unilaterally decide to allow a vote but that would put a successful vote for independence in a difficult position constitutionally.
Another referendum on independence in Scotland is a matter of time. It could be years, it could be decades, but there will be another referendum within your lifetime, assuming you're at least halfway right regarding your longevity. The last one was 6 years ago, 20 years can already be called a "generation" and 30 definitely is a generation. Heck, 10 years can be long enough to argue sufficient time already passed, with some merit.

All it takes is one hung Parliament, or else one slim majority that can't get a critical law passed, or even just a realization that might happen at the next election if Scotland remains in the union.

How would the vote go is another matter, but if BJ remakes the Conservatives into an English nationalist party, then the conclusion is already there. There has been a statistical tie ever since the 2019 election, more nationalism and a serville relationship with the USA won't do the Union any favors.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; 16th June 2020 at 03:32 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 03:45 AM   #64
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It depends a whole lot on how Brexit goes. If there's a no deal Brexit then the loonies will be discredited. Whether that changes anything or not remains to be seen.

If UK bends the knee before the EU then that is a real possibility.
I think you've underestimated the amount of cognitive dissonance that Brexiteers can conjure up.

If there is a no deal then the blame will be placed on the EU for being wholly unreasonable and, in the event of a change of leadership, on the previous party leader for showing willing to negotiate which meant that the EU didn't fold completely and give the UK everything that it wanted.

The "failures" at each stage aren't down to the underlying huge flaws in Brexit but are instead down to the individuals leading the country.

Theresa May's deal was rubbish, because she was willing to negotiate.

Boris Johnson had a fantastic deal (strangely indistinguishable from Theresa May's) but that in retrospect has turned out to be rubbish, because he was willing to negotiate.

The EU are foreigners and the only way to get through to foreigners is to repeat your demands loudly, in English and eventually they will capitulate.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Another referendum on independence in Scotland is a matter of time. It could be years, it could be decades, but there will be another referendum within your lifetime, assuming you're at least halfway right regarding your longevity. The last one was 6 years ago, 20 years can already be called a "generation" and 30 definitely is a generation. Heck, 10 years can be long enough to argue sufficient time already passed, with some merit.
OK, you're talking about those sort of timescales. I mistakenly thought you were talking about the current parliament when you said:

Quote:
If BJ remains in power for much longer and signs a slavish agreement with the USA that would be a "when", not an "if"
My apologies for reading too much into that.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
All it takes is one hung Parliament, or else one slim majority that can't get a critical law passed, or even just a realization that might happen at the next election if Scotland remains in the union.
That would require the Labour Party to be much, much, stronger because, to a first order approximation, there are no Conservative MPs in Scotland - not something I think is likely.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
How would the vote go is another matter, but if BJ remakes the Conservatives into an English nationalist party, then the conclusion is already there. There has been a statistical tie ever since the 2019 election, more nationalism and a serville relationship with the USA won't do the Union any favors.

McHrozni
I think that a vote for Scottish Independence is increasingly likely, especially if the EU make it clear that Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU with open arms.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 04:03 AM   #65
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think you've underestimated the amount of cognitive dissonance that Brexiteers can conjure up.
Maybe, who knows. I find it hard to believe half the country is outright insane. A quarter maybe, but half?

Quote:
OK, you're talking about those sort of timescales. I mistakenly thought you were talking about the current parliament when you said:
My apologies for reading too much into that.
No, I didn't mean just the current Parliament.

Although it's not impossible that BJ won't provoke one anyway. If it looks like his next election might go sideways, if Labour begins to make great strides nationwide and begins to partner with SNP, then BJ might cut off a limb to maintain power.

That's how I think Scotland will win the referendum: by becoming a threat to the Conservative majority.

Quote:
That would require the Labour Party to be much, much, stronger because, to a first order approximation, there are no Conservative MPs in Scotland - not something I think is likely.
Yes, it does require strengthening of Labour to a point where a Labour government becomes at least possible.

Quote:
I think that a vote for Scottish Independence is increasingly likely, especially if the EU make it clear that Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU with open arms.
Quite likely, I agree. Northern Ireland would also follow in some fashion, perhaps as an independent state that seeks to unify with ROI, whether that happens or not. After what we've seen UK would the dismemberment too.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 06:57 AM   #66
lomiller
Penultimate Amazing
 
lomiller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 10,960
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post

I just hope the disaster we call "Trump presidency" acts as a catalyst for major reform within the USA and brings the country back into sanity. That would help. UK would still piggyback as the anchor the country is, but at least then we could have a reasonable western world back again. One can dream, at least.
Trump is just a symptom of deeper problems. IMO it’s far more likely that he’ll become a scapegoat and the real problems will remain unaddressed. When Trump is gone people, his supporters included, will just walk away saying “see the problem is fixed” but every Republican candidate for the next 2 decades will be just as bad.

Unfortunately I think the UK is headed the same way with the Right attempting to mimic the underlying system that created Trump in the first place. 20 years from now a lot of people may find themselves thinking that Boris Johnson wasn’t that bad in comparison to the leadership they are suffering though in 2040.
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen"
lomiller is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 11:31 AM   #67
Garrison
Philosopher
 
Garrison's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 5,225
It helps to understand the mentality of the rank and file Brexiteer if you think of them as the same sort of people who would turn up to 'protect' Churchill's statue and then make Nazi salutes.
__________________
So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/
And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX
Garrison is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th June 2020, 10:16 PM   #68
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Trump is just a symptom of deeper problems.
That is true. It's not the fact Trump is president, it's the fact he was able to become president that is most worrying, plus the fact the entire Republican party stood behind him as he did his utmost to destroy the country.

Quote:
IMO it’s far more likely that he’ll become a scapegoat and the real problems will remain unaddressed. When Trump is gone people, his supporters included, will just walk away saying “see the problem is fixed” but every Republican candidate for the next 2 decades will be just as bad.
That's possible. But keep in mind his base is not 45% of the electorate, it's more like 20-25% of the electorate, with another 20% or so who go along with the charade in order to get certain things they want done. His base is large enough and enthusiastic enough to vote for such 'people' and dominate Republican primary, but the rest of the electorate is more than large enough to deny them most of the top offices - especially if the remaining 20% are lackluster about voting and the voters on the other side highly motivated.

Remember, the GOP was already maintaining power through cheating - gerrymandering and voter disfranchisement - before Trump. This is relevant, because they only work so long as you're in power. If you lose power the other side only needs to chip away at your cheating wall. They don't even need to bring it down, if you couldn't win as an incumbent with the field heavily slanting your way, then you definitely can't win as the challenger if the field doesn't slant your way by anywhere near as much.

Republican party may continue fieling Trumpian candidates for some time to come, true. It may also come undone. The worst case scenario you describe is also possible, the truth will likely be somewhere in between.

Quote:
Unfortunately I think the UK is headed the same way with the Right attempting to mimic the underlying system that created Trump in the first place. 20 years from now a lot of people may find themselves thinking that Boris Johnson wasn’t that bad in comparison to the leadership they are suffering though in 2040.
UK is currently in a worse position than USA, I think. In USA, there's a very good chance the president will be unseated, it's even possible the Democrats will win both houses of the Congress. They need four Senate seats for that, six years ago Republicans took nine seats - that means nine out of 23 Republican seats in play elected a Democrat in the previous cycle.

In UK there's little prospect for improvement until the next election more than four years from now, with at least one major and irreversible disaster in between. Possibly two - no deal Brexit and vassalisation to the USA.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 08:13 AM   #69
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 29,104
So fantastic! A trade deal with Australia could be worth up to £1bn which is definitely better than free trade with the EU which is only worth £290bn.
Captain_Swoop is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 08:16 AM   #70
Wudang
BOFH
 
Wudang's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: People's Republic of South Yorkshire
Posts: 13,034
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
So fantastic! A trade deal with Australia could be worth up to £1bn which is definitely better than free trade with the EU which is only worth £290bn.
Stop talking the UK down! Now all we need to do is discover 289 more Australias and welcome a second and better Elizabethan Age of exploration.
__________________
"Your deepest pools, like your deepest politicians and philosophers, often turn out more shallow than expected." Walter Scott.
Wudang is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 08:22 AM   #71
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 29,104
"I want a world in which we send you Marmite and you send us Vegemite"
"How long can the British people be deprived of the opportunity to have Arnott's Tim Tams at a reasonable price?"


Actual quotes from Boris!

Just think, we’ve given up freedom of movement and tariff free trade with the EU on things like fine wine, delicious cheese, charcuterie, and truffles for a fake Penguin biscuit.
Captain_Swoop is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 08:29 AM   #72
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 29,104
Quote:
There are few countries in the world who share a closer friendship than Australia and the UK.
Now, as an independent trading nation for the first time in decades, we have the opportunity to turn our shared history and friendship into a world-leading free trade agreement.
Worth noting that the EU are in the process of negotiating a trade deal with Australia. We’re behind the EU in the queue and we’re a much, much smaller market. To even entertain the notion of the UK negotiating a superior trade deal with Australia to the EU is simply absurd.
Captain_Swoop is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 08:39 AM   #73
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,183
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Worth noting that the EU are in the process of negotiating a trade deal with Australia. We’re behind the EU in the queue and we’re a much, much smaller market. To even entertain the notion of the UK negotiating a superior trade deal with Australia to the EU is simply absurd.
I suppose that there may be some sticking points for individual countries which the UK may not have and so may be in a position to get a better deal more quickly.

Then again, Australia and the EU may be concerned that the UK could be used to circumvent their deal.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 08:49 AM   #74
Mojo
Mostly harmless
 
Mojo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 33,284
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Worth noting that the EU are in the process of negotiating a trade deal with Australia. We’re behind the EU in the queue and we’re a much, much smaller market. To even entertain the notion of the UK negotiating a superior trade deal with Australia to the EU is simply absurd.

It’s perfectly simple. The EU negotiates a trade deal with Australia; we negotiate a trade deal with Australia. We then have no need for a trade deal with the EU because all our trade with them can go via the antipodes, and the Foreign Secretary no longer has to comprehend the importance of the Dover-Calais trade route.
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield

"The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky
Mojo is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 09:01 AM   #75
Squeegee Beckenheim
Penultimate Amazing
 
Squeegee Beckenheim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 30,146
I did wonder why Tim Tams was trending.
__________________
I don't trust atoms. They make up everything.
Squeegee Beckenheim is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 12:35 PM   #76
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 29,104
Conservative Home "The Voice of Conservatism" has published a piece by darren grimes on energy production 'post brexit'

He says
Quote:
Since we must use coal, why import it all when we could instead create jobs by mining it in the North-East?
Shall I slap him or does someone else want that pleasure?


https://www.conservativehome.com/the...orth-east.html
Captain_Swoop is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 12:44 PM   #77
Mojo
Mostly harmless
 
Mojo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 33,284
Born 1993, so won’t remember.
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield

"The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky
Mojo is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 12:54 PM   #78
Mojo
Mostly harmless
 
Mojo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 33,284
Didn’t Thatcher blame the EEC for her having to close down the mines because she wasn’t allowed to subsidise them, thus making British coal more expensive than Polish and American imports? I can just imagine her surreptitiously peeling a small onion while making that announcement.
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield

"The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky
Mojo is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 01:49 PM   #79
abaddon
Penultimate Amazing
 
abaddon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Republic of Ireland
Posts: 21,002
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Conservative Home "The Voice of Conservatism" has published a piece by darren grimes on energy production 'post brexit'

He says

Shall I slap him or does someone else want that pleasure?


https://www.conservativehome.com/the...orth-east.html
Grimes is not worth the effort of a slap. Entitled little ****.
__________________
Who is General Failure? And why is he reading my hard drive?


...love and buttercakes...
abaddon is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th June 2020, 03:09 PM   #80
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,078
Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
It helps to understand the mentality of the rank and file Brexiteer if you think of them as the same sort of people who would turn up to 'protect' Churchill's statue and then make Nazi salutes.
And urinate on a memorial to a murdered police officer.

Truly they are the Dumb, the Desperate and the Deplorable.
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:42 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.