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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old 20th November 2020, 02:56 PM   #3081
Dr.Sid
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Things like Let's Move would be a good idea if it actually included sound nutrition advice.

The other main problem is that by the time kids are in school, they've already been hooked on junk food.

No argument from me except, I'm not in favor of restricting the marketing of junk food except that it should include warning labels like for alcohol and tobacco.

I think the government needs to get out of the nutrition guideline business until they get some better science behind it.

The Medical establishment needs to step up and address the poor nutrition practices and advice that have led to the problems.
Well .. problem is government will profit from healthier people. Medical establishment will not.
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Old 20th November 2020, 03:23 PM   #3082
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More evidence that MMR offers protection against Covid: https://scitechdaily.com/new-proof-t...inst-covid-19/
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Old 20th November 2020, 03:48 PM   #3083
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Well .. problem is government will profit from healthier people. Medical establishment will not.
Excellent point..
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Old 20th November 2020, 10:10 PM   #3084
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
More evidence that MMR offers protection against Covid: https://scitechdaily.com/new-proof-t...inst-covid-19/
It's a pilot study. And anytime I see "proof" instead of "evidence" one has to wonder who is doing the reporting.

I couldn't easily track down the study. Maybe you can find it.
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Old 20th November 2020, 10:41 PM   #3085
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
Seriously, that is not all we are being told to do.

Sometimes being told what to do and actually doing it does work though, and it even works for the greater good of the Community as a whole and in the longer term, sustained economic recovery. For example, Victoria went into total lock down back late in July and started to slowly open up late September (outside of Melbourne) and early October in Melbourne.

November, so far, has been totally Covid free, and only one earlier active case remains. Testing is still done at a rate of about 10,000 people per day, and daily tests of sewerage outlets are taken as a widespread precaution. Masks are still compulsory, but not a whole lot else, unless you want a crowd of 100,000 at the Boxing Day test instead of (probably) 30,000.

We peaked at 725 new cases in a single day in August. So far 20 days into November, no new cases, no deaths for the Month.

Let's take a look at some US States with similar populations to Victoria's 6.4 million.

The first figure is the population (millions), the second is the number of new cases on 3 August, the third is cases in November to date (rounded) and the fourth is the number of deaths (rounded) over the same period


I think it was worth the effort, and I suspect most Victorians agree. Our economy can start to return to something like normal for a Covid world, as New Zealand's has.


Victoria 6.4m, 725, 0, 0
Tennessee 6.8m, 1,009, 70,000, 850
Indiana 6.7m, 576, 103,000, 900
Missouri 6.1m, 1,593, 86,000, 600
Maryland 6m, 870, 29,000, 200
Wisconsin, 5.8m, 404, 119,000, 800
Colorado, 5.8m, 252, 81,000, 500
Minnesota, 5.7m, 613, 108,000, 700


Edited 'cause my formatting collapsed when I posted.


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Last edited by fromdownunder; 20th November 2020 at 11:01 PM.
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Old 21st November 2020, 12:41 AM   #3086
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
Sometimes being told what to do and actually doing it does work though, and it even works for the greater good of the Community as a whole and in the longer term, sustained economic recovery. For example, Victoria went into total lock down back late in July and started to slowly open up late September (outside of Melbourne) and early October in Melbourne.

November, so far, has been totally Covid free, and only one earlier active case remains. Testing is still done at a rate of about 10,000 people per day, and daily tests of sewerage outlets are taken as a widespread precaution. Masks are still compulsory, but not a whole lot else, unless you want a crowd of 100,000 at the Boxing Day test instead of (probably) 30,000.

We peaked at 725 new cases in a single day in August. So far 20 days into November, no new cases, no deaths for the Month.

Let's take a look at some US States with similar populations to Victoria's 6.4 million.

The first figure is the population (millions), the second is the number of new cases on 3 August, the third is cases in November to date (rounded) and the fourth is the number of deaths (rounded) over the same period


I think it was worth the effort, and I suspect most Victorians agree. Our economy can start to return to something like normal for a Covid world, as New Zealand's has.


Victoria 6.4m, 725, 0, 0
Tennessee 6.8m, 1,009, 70,000, 850
Indiana 6.7m, 576, 103,000, 900
Missouri 6.1m, 1,593, 86,000, 600
Maryland 6m, 870, 29,000, 200
Wisconsin, 5.8m, 404, 119,000, 800
Colorado, 5.8m, 252, 81,000, 500
Minnesota, 5.7m, 613, 108,000, 700


Edited 'cause my formatting collapsed when I posted.


Norm
Yeah, very good feelings here. I keep being told (sarcastically) “good for you” and “where? You don’t matter”.

When history of this pandemic is written Australia, New Zealand and only a few other places will be the roaring successes, while lazy and poorly led countries will be condemned for their failure.
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Old 21st November 2020, 02:03 AM   #3087
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Yeah, very good feelings here. I keep being told (sarcastically) “good for you” and “where? You don’t matter”.

When history of this pandemic is written Australia, New Zealand and only a few other places will be the roaring successes, while lazy and poorly led countries will be condemned for their failure.
Victoria will certainly be held up as an example of how easily hundreds can die from an outbreak quickly getting out of hand due to poorly run quarantine programs.
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Old 21st November 2020, 02:09 AM   #3088
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Victoria will certainly be held up as an example of how easily hundreds can die from an outbreak quickly getting out of hand due to poorly run quarantine programs.
Beyond boring. It really looks like you are disappointed that Victoria has beaten a second surge.

It also looks like you have advance copies of the Commission of Inquiry report. Mind sharing?
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Old 21st November 2020, 02:15 AM   #3089
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Yeah, very good feelings here. I keep being told (sarcastically) “good for you” and “where? You don’t matter”.

When history of this pandemic is written Australia, New Zealand and only a few other places will be the roaring successes, while lazy and poorly led countries will be condemned for their failure.
No, they'll be held up as examples of territorial anomalies which had the advantage of remoteness of both cities and the countries themselves and of hot weather at the right time to help them.
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Old 21st November 2020, 02:29 AM   #3090
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Beyond boring. It really looks like you are disappointed that Victoria has beaten a second surge.
I find praising the arsonist for helping put out the fire that they started beyond ironic.

Quote:
It also looks like you have advance copies of the Commission of Inquiry report. Mind sharing?
Fortunately those running the Board of Inquiry aren’t one-eyed DanFans, so at least we might receive a non-partisan appraisal in December of the debacle overseen by Fireman Dan that killed 800+ Victorians.

From the interim report
Despite the relatively low number of positive COVID-19 cases in the Hotel Quarantine Program, breaches of containment in the program in May and June led to the second wave of COVID-19 cases in Victoria,24 with devastating social and economic consequences for the state.
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Old 21st November 2020, 05:19 AM   #3091
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
I find praising the arsonist for helping put out the fire that they started beyond ironic.
Did I say beyond boring? I’ll have to come up with another description for this drivel.....
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Old 21st November 2020, 05:54 AM   #3092
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Did I say beyond boring? I’ll have to come up with another description for this drivel.....
... if you find the thought of 800 unnecessary dead due to a quarantine debacle drivel all good to you and Dan the Man
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Old 21st November 2020, 06:38 AM   #3093
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
... if you find the thought of 800 unnecessary dead due to a quarantine debacle drivel all good to you and Dan the Man
Might I suggest that that discussion be redirected to the Covid-19 and Politics pt 2 thread in the Non-USA & General Politics forum?
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Old 21st November 2020, 09:27 AM   #3094
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Mod WarningIn an ideal world I would be going back to when I placed my last warning about dropping the non-science posts and suspending a bunch of members for ignoring the warning. But at the moment I don’t have the time to do a proper clean-up. That means some of you are “getting away” with breaching your Membership Agreement.

But note from this point any further non-science posts will be removed and the member suspended for a minimum of 24 hours with no further warnings.

So let me be clear: this is the “direct” science thread, there are plenty threads you can post in where your posts about the politics or your politics or CTs in regards to the pandemic are fine, but not this one.

(I may if I get time do a clean-up.)

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Old 21st November 2020, 10:14 AM   #3095
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ut-no-symptoms

"But a further 597 people without symptoms were identified by the lateral flow tests – 24% of all the positive diagnoses. “They were people who were asymptomatic by definition – they did not know they had Covid-19 when they presented for testing,”..."

Mass testing finds more people carrying without knowing.
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Old 21st November 2020, 10:25 AM   #3096
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Some good news on that front - Oxford has done a meta-study which shows immunity lasts for at least six months: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/busi...-says/2736878/

Don't forget that Sweden already had at least 150 cases!
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Old 21st November 2020, 10:47 AM   #3097
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It's a pilot study. And anytime I see "proof" instead of "evidence" one has to wonder who is doing the reporting.

I couldn't easily track down the study. Maybe you can find it.

Maybe this?
Quote:
Our results demonstrate that there is a significant inverse correlation between mumps titers from MMR II and COVID-19 severity.
https://mbio.asm.org/content/11/6/e02628-20

There have been numerous reports of a correlation between a recent MMR vaccine and less severe consequences of covid infection. I thought it was pretty persuasive that 900+ sailors on the Roosevelt contracted covid, but only 7 had to be hospitalized and none died. They all got MMRs as part of their enlistment. Maybe if just health care workers and the elderly had gotten MMRs in the spring, the death count would be much lower.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...ms-of-covid-19
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...anization.html
https://www.thehealthsite.com/news/n...get-it-753256/
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politic...-fight-n636974

Last edited by Bob001; 21st November 2020 at 11:08 AM.
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Old 21st November 2020, 02:58 PM   #3098
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Very interesting studies.

I'm quite wary of meta-analyses and trend watching though.
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Old 21st November 2020, 04:44 PM   #3099
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Might I suggest that that discussion be redirected to the Covid-19 and Politics pt 2 thread in the Non-USA & General Politics forum?
Acknowledged and mod box noted.

My initial reason for posting was that the reports from the investigation into Victoria’s hotel quarantine program point out failures that were also the root cause for a subsequent outbreak in neighbouring South Australia.

We keep making the same mistakes, causing further preventable (or at least manageable) outbreaks.

As to more science, in defence of the recent SA lockdown, the health authorities claimed that the outbreak was due to a more virulent strain of COVID. There was no scientific evidence that the strain was anything other than the “regular” strain doing the rounds in Europe.
“Patient Zero” likely to be someone returning to Australia from the UK.

The public’s understanding of the science of COVID is not helped with the broadcasting of misinformation.
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Old 21st November 2020, 05:48 PM   #3100
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Well below does not equate into the lack of a Flu Season by anybody's definition. Your last sentence could make sense if you provide greater background.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid...4?guccounter=1

This year, the Southern Hemisphere saw a historically inactive flu season with “virtually no influenza circulation,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The reason for this, infectious disease experts say, lies in how similarly COVID-19 and the flu are transmitted and, therefore, prevented. The viruses primarily spread in the same ways. Thanks to all the precautions in place for the coronavirus — like mask-wearing, physical distancing, school closures and teleworking — the flu never really struck this year down under, compared to previous flu seasons.


Very few Covid-19 infections also have influenza. CDC's testing is around 0.2%. Well under the 1 to 2% normal in the off season let alone the 10-30% during a normal flu season.
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Old 21st November 2020, 05:54 PM   #3101
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
[b][i]This year, the Southern Hemisphere saw a historically inactive flu season with “virtually no influenza circulation,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
NZ's case rate dropped by 99.98%: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...ue-to-lockdown
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Old 21st November 2020, 06:20 PM   #3102
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There's a lot of information from Lilly here about their magical monoclonal antibody treatment:

"Playbook"

Basically the feds pay for the initial 300,000 doses and determine who it is shipped to.
Edited by Agatha:  snipped political content


It has be be administered IV over an hour or so. Kaiser has that set up for their patients here in Bellevue. (They would qualify to apply to use the drug, not sure if they have.) That part is only going to be accessible to insured patients. Third party payers can probably be billed for administration costs. (We have been told we can charge for vaccine administration.) That will limit accessibility.

It needs to be given very early on, before O2 is needed. That's consistent with flu drugs. If you give them before the damage is done, they abort the infection. If the virus is already widespread and the damage started this kind of drug has little impact.

Remember that. You may need that information if you or someone you know gets infected.

With flu we say there is a 48 hour window from the onset of symptoms until antivirals are given to get the most benefit out of them.

Here are Lilly's current conditions where the drug is recommended.

Quote:
This EUA is for the use of the unapproved product bamlanivimab for the
treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults and pediatric patients with
positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 viral testing who are 12 years of age and
older weighing at least 40 kg, and who are at high risk for progressing to
severe COVID-19 and/or hospitalization [see Limitations of Authorized Use].
High risk is defined as patients who meet at least one of the following criteria:
• Have a body mass index (BMI) ≥35
• Have chronic kidney disease
• Have diabetes
• Have immunosuppressive disease
• Are currently receiving immunosuppressive treatment
• Are ≥65 years of age
• Are ≥55 years of age AND have
o cardiovascular disease, OR
o hypertension, OR
o chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/other chronic respiratory disease.
• Are 12 – 17 years of age AND have
o BMI ≥85th percentile for their age and gender based on CDC growth
charts, https://www.cdc.gov/growthcharts/clinical_charts.htm, OR
o sickle cell disease, OR
o congenital or acquired heart disease, OR
o neurodevelopmental disorders, for example, cerebral palsy, OR
o a medical-related technological dependence, for example, tracheostomy,
gastrostomy, or positive pressure ventilation (not related to COVID-19),
OR
o asthma, reactive airway or other chronic respiratory disease that requires
daily medication for control.
So right away a person needs insurance (or money to pay for IV administration costs), access to an urgent care doctor who can get a COVID test done and back quickly, and access to an IV infusion center. And you need to know when to go in to get tested.
Edited by Agatha:  snipped political content


There should be more of this drug available by late spring/mid-summer.


More on the vaccine:
I have received the guidelines for applying for the newest vaccine when it becomes available. Providers have to apply to be vaccine administrators. I'm not going to apply because the storage mechanism is something I don't want to deal with. It comes in a special container with dry ice. You have to replace the dry ice when you receive the vaccine where it will then last 5 days. You need to get in and out of the special container only twice a day* and then you only have ~hour to give the vaccine. That is quite the hassle for places like the Safeway Pharmacies who would see patients coming in sporadically.

*Not sure if you can get in more often if you continually replace the dry ice.

I will consider applying to administer the Modena's vaccine if/when it becomes available and the police and fire I provide services for have not yet gotten it.

Probably I won't be giving this vaccine.



More on the monoclonal antibodies: For the last two weeks WA State public health would only distribute the doses to hospitals for ... reasons. Typical given one can't get the dose if you are already in the hospital and chances are if you are in the ED you are already very ill. Giving the drug to people sick enough to need O2 wastes it. Not the first time I've seen this nonsense, but I digress.

After Monday:Use of Bamlanivimab in Washington State
Quote:
During the week of Nov. 23, 2020, any health care facility in Washington will be eligible to receive the medication from DOH. If the demand for medication from health care facilities in Washington exceeds the amount allocated to the state, DOH will allocate doses proportionally to facilities based on the population of the county. Doses will also be set aside for tribal clinics. Doses distributed through the government will be provided free of charge.

Any health care facility able to abide by the requirements in the provider fact sheet will be eligible to receive the medication. Facilities interested in receiving bamlanivimab from DOH should contact Jennifer Dixon at Jennifer.dixon@doh.wa.gov.
This sucks when you consider people with connections will get doses:
Quote:
Given the large number of patients who will be eligible to receive the drug and the relatively small number of doses allocated to the state, the Department of Health recommends that health care providers use a randomized selection process for all eligible patients who can have the drug safely administered. Currently, there is not enough data to narrow the criteria for use listed in the EUA.
I hope high risk health care workers exposed on the job are first to get this drug so maybe hospitals were a good place to have gotten the drug.

Edited by Agatha:  snipped political content
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Old 21st November 2020, 08:33 PM   #3103
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid...4?guccounter=1

This year, the Southern Hemisphere saw a historically inactive flu season with “virtually no influenza circulation,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The reason for this, infectious disease experts say, lies in how similarly COVID-19 and the flu are transmitted and, therefore, prevented. The viruses primarily spread in the same ways. Thanks to all the precautions in place for the coronavirus — like mask-wearing, physical distancing, school closures and teleworking — the flu never really struck this year down under, compared to previous flu seasons.


Very few Covid-19 infections also have influenza. CDC's testing is around 0.2%. Well under the 1 to 2% normal in the off season let alone the 10-30% during a normal flu season.
Additionally there was a 40% increase in supply of flu vaccines this year compared to last year.

It is estimated that 70% of the Australian population took heed of COVID preparation/prevention advice of the Australian government and got flu vaccinations. An uptake increase of 35%. Recorded flu cases for 2020 to date are currently less than 10% that of 2019 cases.

But yes, protective measures such as social distancing and surface/hand cleaning, probably had a much higher impact on the flu season in Australia than even this increase in flu vaccination.
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Old 21st November 2020, 10:32 PM   #3104
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Apologies. In my defence I started to talk about Australia’s successful, science based strategy. I was sucked in to responding to a post about politics.
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Old 21st November 2020, 10:44 PM   #3105
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
More evidence that MMR offers protection against Covid: https://scitechdaily.com/new-proof-t...inst-covid-19/
I was under the impression that almost all Americans born before 1960 (including myself) had all 3 - the diseases, not the vaccine. Yet the fatality rate is highest among people who were born before 1960. Is there a reason why the vaccine would give more protection against covid than having the diseases?
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Old 21st November 2020, 11:19 PM   #3106
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I was under the impression that almost all Americans born before 1960 (including myself) had all 3 - the diseases, not the vaccine. Yet the fatality rate is highest among people who were born before 1960. Is there a reason why the vaccine would give more protection against covid than having the diseases?

The MMR uses a live virus. The speculation is that it stimulates the immune system to be more resistant to all viruses, including covid.
https://asm.org/Press-Releases/2020/...e-Worst-Sympto

In some countries they use the oral polio vaccine made with a live virus, and it also seems to stimulate resistance.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...19/ar-BB15npUv
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Old 21st November 2020, 11:24 PM   #3107
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I was under the impression that almost all Americans born before 1960 (including myself) had all 3 - the diseases, not the vaccine. Yet the fatality rate is highest among people who were born before 1960. Is there a reason why the vaccine would give more protection against covid than having the diseases?
Close but not quite. MMR (starting with measles first but the other 2 followed close behind) was developed in 1968. In 1963 there was a killed measles vaccine (that wouldn't last a lifetime).

Before 1957 almost everyone had measles. Between 57 and ~65 the rate of people that had measles decreased over time because in 1963 people began getting the vaccine.

From 1968 until ~1991 we thought people only needed one MMR in or over the age of 15 months. But the measles outbreak in 91 brought to our attention that some people given the killed vaccine had lost immunity and the failure rate of the MMR while small would be even smaller if people got 2 doses. That's when we started giving kids 2 doses and adults 1 or 2 doses depending on what they needed to get a total 2 doses of the live vaccine.

In the 90s a lot of people got 1 or 2 MMRs as a requirement to get into college.


But I'm not sure that study only looked at measles titers. I think I read they looked at mumps titers. That gets more complicated and there's no sense bothering until they do follow-up research to sort it all out.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 12:30 AM   #3108
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
We keep making the same mistakes, causing further preventable (or at least manageable) outbreaks.
Mistakes and stupidity are human, and there's no cure for being a human.

And we can all be all-too-human sometimes.

The vaccine can't come soon enough, though.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:47 AM   #3109
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
.....

I'm not sure friends of Trump should be getting special access but we can't stop him.
No, because allocating scarce resources according to need is Socialism; the proper way, the American way is to allow the market to decide who gets the treatment. The deserving, those who are successful and can afford the treatment should be those who get it. If people think that paying federal taxes entitles them then they are fools for paying taxes, those who are smart enough to pay no tax seem to get priority access.

Personally I am happy to live in a country where we have a socialist health care service and even the prime minister when ill gets life saving treatment from the NHS. (Although St. Thomas's does have probably the best ICUs in the UK.)
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Old 22nd November 2020, 03:51 AM   #3110
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Talking about a great new treatment by summer seems a bit late. If the vaccines waiting in the wings are used intelligently we shouldn't be needing miracle cures by the summer. Of course that's a big if. But a strategic vaccination strategy seems a lot more rational than expensive hi-tech monoclonal antibodies for people who have the resources to be diagnosed in time and then pay for it.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 06:49 AM   #3111
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Talking about a great new treatment by summer seems a bit late. If the vaccines waiting in the wings are used intelligently we shouldn't be needing miracle cures by the summer. Of course that's a big if. But a strategic vaccination strategy seems a lot more rational than expensive hi-tech monoclonal antibodies for people who have the resources to be diagnosed in time and then pay for it.
What's wrong with both? There will still be people catching the virus come next summer - even if it's just a few.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 07:07 AM   #3112
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That's a fair point, but the emphasis on a new treatment is all wrong. If a better treatment can save a handful of lives then that's great. But that's all it's going to be needed for if this is done right.

Actually, if this is done right, we should have solid herd immunity by June.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 07:23 AM   #3113
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
That's a fair point, but the emphasis on a new treatment is all wrong. If a better treatment can save a handful of lives then that's great. But that's all it's going to be needed for if this is done right.
Any treatment that is capable of saving lives is worth emphasis. You make it sound as if the vaccines have been relegated to the second division.
Quote:
Actually, if this is done right, we should have solid herd immunity by June.
So what sort of percentages are you expecting to give "herd immunity"? Anything over 60% is one heck of a lot of vaccinations - even the Astra Zeneca vaccine needs two doses, so that's about 70 million vaccinations just for the UK.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 08:46 AM   #3114
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What is the duration of the immunity with the vaccines? If it is only six months like with the actual COVID-19, everybody need to be revaccinated before the six months have passed if herd immunity is to endure.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 09:10 AM   #3115
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
What is the duration of the immunity with the vaccines? If it is only six months like with the actual COVID-19, everybody need to be revaccinated before the six months have passed if herd immunity is to endure.
Whilst the antibodies may only last 6 months there's also the T cells which, I believe, last longer. Since winter is the worst time for any virus infection, a yearly vaccination in the autumn might well be adequate, provided it is rolled out across the whole population - a massive undertaking in itself.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 10:06 AM   #3116
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Another Vitamin D study. This one in Nature:

Analysis of vitamin D level among asymptomatic and critically ill COVID-19 patients and its correlation with inflammatory markers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z

People were grouped in two extremes: Asymptomatic and Critical.

32% of the asymptomatics were deficient. 98% of the critical patients were deficient.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 10:14 AM   #3117
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Another Vitamin D study. This one in Nature:

Analysis of vitamin D level among asymptomatic and critically ill COVID-19 patients and its correlation with inflammatory markers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z

People were grouped in two extremes: Asymptomatic and Critical.

32% of the asymptomatics were deficient. 98% of the critical patients were deficient.
Could it be the disease itself that causes the deficiency?
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Old 22nd November 2020, 10:39 AM   #3118
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Another Vitamin D study. This one in Nature:
Thanks mate!

I've started writing my acceptance speech.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Could it be the disease itself that causes the deficiency?
Highly unlikely.

The studies to date have highlighted the lack of D in people where you'd expect it to be - people who don't get enough through the sun and aren't taking supplements.

Also, you'd expect to see a continuing decline in D levels if that were the case and they didn't decrease beyond the initial levels found.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 10:40 AM   #3119
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Whilst the antibodies may only last 6 months there's also the T cells which, I believe, last longer. Since winter is the worst time for any virus infection, a yearly vaccination in the autumn might well be adequate, provided it is rolled out across the whole population - a massive undertaking in itself.
Maybe so, but we already have the mechanism in place for annual flu vaccinations. Whether they can be done at the same time will make a huge difference, of course. A friend told me that his ex, who is in the NHS, told him that there needs to be a four week gap between flu and Covid-19 vaccinations, which is one of the reasons there's been a push to get people to have their flu jabs as early as possible. Whether that's actually the case, or is just precautionary, we'll have to wait and see.
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Old 22nd November 2020, 10:53 AM   #3120
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Could it be the disease itself that causes the deficiency?
Possible I suppose.

There was a Spanish study some time back in nursing homes. Patients, due to endemic low Vit. D. were given 80,000 IUs in one dose every two months. This is apparently a common practice in their nursing homes. There was a retrospective study of when the D was given and when patients died. There was a large factor associated with high mortality of the patients that hadn't received D in the prior month.

I just don't get why there isn't a good RCT on D. Not like this hasn't been kicking around for quite a while.
BTW/ the 98% figure is wrong. S/B 97%.
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