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#1 | ||
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 35,962
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Covid-19 and Politics pt 2
It's the story of his whole life, relying on everyone else to bail him out by doing all the hard work
![]() Of course if and when a vaccine is available, I expect the rollout to be botched and for a lot of Johnson's friends to find themselves much richer....
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#2 |
Lackey
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
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Perhaps fast tracking companies which employ ex Tories ministers isn't the best way to ensure value for money
The Guardian: UK government orders halt to Randox Covid-19 tests over safety issues. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-safety-issues |
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#3 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,276
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How the vaccine is "rolled out" depends on availability. Vaccinating vulnerable groups and care workers seems sensible, but this isn't the case if the immunity is short-lived. If it only confers a few months immunity it's vital to use it strategically as part of an eradication strategy. Otherwise you're chasing your own tail.
If there's plenty vaccine, arrange for everyone who'll hold still to get it in a fairly narrow time window. This should reduce transmission to the point where herd immunity kicks in properly, although it would still be sensible to go on contact tracing and isolating during this time. Hopefully there would be no virus left by the time immunity begins to wane. If vaccine stocks are limited it's better to use them for ring vaccination around identified outbreaks, again in conjunction with contact tracing and isolation. If there is sufficient you could also consider vaccinating front-line care workers, but the ring vaccination should be given priority. Done right, this also should lead to eradication, although on a longer time-scale. The ideal use of a vaccine is to eradicate the disease and thus render itself obsolete. This is eradicable. It is not acceptable just to use a vaccine as a sticking-plaster to be reapplied every so often. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#4 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,276
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Correction. I found the modelling. As of tomorrow the number of infectious people in Scotland is estimated to be between 300 and 800, mid estimate 500. That's 0.009% of the population, or one in nearly 11,000 people. Interestingly, although last week we had a couple of days with unexpectedly high numbers of new cases (18 and 19) the modellers don't seem to be thinking the situation as they're modelling it changes much because of that. The rate of decrease in infection is gradually decreasing from 30% to 26% but there has been no sudden change. Tomorrow we're also predicted to have around 40 new cases (20 to 70) for real. It's hard to know whether to hope they're finding more of them (there was a specific plea yesterday for people with any symptoms to come forward for testing to help Scotland eliminate the virus) at the expense of the daily figures looking good, or that we'll come in well under the 18 cases found last Friday. By the end of next week, barring some awful resurgence, we're predicted to have only 400 infectious people (200 to 600) and 30 (20 to 50) new infections per day. I originally thought these estimates were on the pessimistic side, but as they come down they look more realistic and more encouraging. I just hope all the opening-up we did yesterday doesn't fatally jemmy this trend. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#5 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,893
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#6 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,893
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But that's just because Gove was caught in a sandwich shop without one (after saying wearing masks in shops didn't need to be mandatory because it's simple courtesy).
ETA: Ninja'd by the article. Government by 'making whatever a minister/PM Cummings was caught doing yesterday legal' |
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#7 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
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Location: UK
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#8 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,276
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Randox don't make swabs as far as I know, they make reagent kits. They're not my favourite supplier and my firm moved away from them in the 1990s, but they're not cowboys.
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#9 |
Uncritical "thinker"
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So actually the sort of company one might consider granting an emergency contract to with no competition?
But may not an ideal company. There does seem to be an almost ideological belief that non experts are somehow better, see Dyson's ventilators. They are not cowboys either, but if the ventilators were needed, they wouldn't have been the best choice. |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#10 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 35,962
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tbh if the "experts" are party supporters and/or donors then they might find themselves with the contract.
Of course it's a much grander, and hence headline grabbing, gesture if a company has to move heaven and Earth to deliver, rather than a better qualified company increasing their output by 17%. ![]() |
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#11 |
Uncritical "thinker"
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A digression:
Dominic Cummings seems to behave like someone who spent too much of his formative years reading such drivel - his vocabulary and initiatives make sense if you think that is how the world works. After seeing Rolfe's post, I am not sure if that is the case with Randox, but certainly the Dyson ventilator initiative, for example, fits with such a narrative. |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#12 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 35,962
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More good news for those of us living in Wales:
Quote:
Zero would be better, but this is still good news ![]() The problem is England, which I can see from Don Towers, doesn't have such encouraging numbers but there's complete freedom of movement. I was planning a bike ride into England this morning but I think I'll head off into Wales instead - a shame because it's the only flattish ground anywhere close. |
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#13 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 27,797
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It's being walked back.
Gov't asks groups of young people, seniors not to use travel subsidy
Quote:
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#14 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,893
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"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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#15 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#16 |
Philosopher
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#17 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#18 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
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Quote:
Also, what 1 metre rule? |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#19 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
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Please everyone understand this about government policy, we are given it, they then check to see it it is effective i.e. produces positive headlines in the important papers and media and important people are OK with it i.e. members of local tory party selection committees , if it does that then all is fine, if not it will have to be changed.
Also remember the policy is the act, there should be no assumption that anything bar the announcement will happen. |
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#20 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Wales
Posts: 29,007
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Oops. We in the B household were blithely assuming we'd be able to stay with friends when we return to the UK while we set up our own place. From my reading, overnight stays seem to be allowed now but with strong advice on social distancing, not sharing utensils etc etc. This would see to scupper the idea if both couples want to stick strictly with the advice.
I don't know if any of you UKians can shed any light on this. I'm not wild keen on the idea in the first place, but MrsB is very reluctant to rent an Airbnb for a week or three, for some reason that's beyond my comprehension. |
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Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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Latest update:
Latest R number range for the UK 0.7-0.9 Latest growth rate range for the UK -5% to -1% England regions:
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#22 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 35,962
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#23 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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This is the current advice, as far as I know. I've reviewed it again, and Boris is simply talking out of his arse (no change there).
Quote:
As for your situation, I believe this covers it:
Quote:
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#24 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#25 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
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#26 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#27 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 35,962
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Me too.......... today........... in Wales
![]() In my defence I was approaching a cycle path at a roundabout and a car took the exit without signalling at significant speed. I had to stop suddenly, unclipped my left foot and fell to the right. Happily I landed on a grassy verge. ![]() |
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#28 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,276
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It's a nonexistent risk if you're in the open air and more than 2 metres away from anyone else the whole time. If you want to know how the particular area you're going to is doing with current/recent infections, this interactive map is really useful. Zoom in to get details at a very local level. Just don't go anywhere near Colwall, Cradley & Wellington Heath, or if you do, don't go near anyone! https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076 |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#29 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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I hit a speed bump I had forgotten about. Result: bit of road rash and a new helmet was needed. No lasting damage.
To return, somewhat, to the topic: Once again the Germans have the right word for the current political climate: "Fisselig", meaning "flustered to the point of incompetence". |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#30 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 27,797
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Not sure if this is more of a politics or science post, but I'll put it here just for future reference.
Japan is having a second wave but the government doesn't seem to be responding with the same alacrity that it did the first time. ![]() Perhaps because the first wave was rather mild compared to those in other countries. Japan hasn't yet recorded its thousandth death from the disease and new daily deaths remain in the low single digits even as new infections are on the rise again. In the above, the graph shows new daily infections. The numbers on the top row are current infected patients, new infections (most recent day) and total infected patients. (Numbers in parentheses are the change from the previous day) Second row is total deaths and total discharged patients. |
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#31 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 32,124
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I don't trust atoms. They make up everything. |
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#32 |
Uncritical "thinker"
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Which is dwarfed by the undercounting at the peak of the pandemic.
On Twitter, I kept seeing claims that the 2017-2018 winter was as bad as COVID-19 so I plotted the ONS weekly deaths figures along with the figures for those where COVID-19 was listed on the death certificates for England and Wales Because of this, I plotted the 2017, 2018 and 2020 deviation from the 2018 5-year average. Notice the 2000-4000 per week undercounting during the worst part of the epidemic. This is to week 22 because I'm reusing my images ONS wk22 2.jpg |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#33 |
Lackey
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#34 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,117
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I'm sure it will go as well as when that claim was made back in 1914.
Still, I'm looking forward to the Christmas day truce football against the virus, probably the only English football that will take place over that holiday given the government's competence at handling the pandemic |
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#35 |
Mostly harmless
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#36 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#37 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#38 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,117
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I can't believe people are making this argument but it does seem some are. Even though it completely ignores that the UK had the same death toll as a very bad flu season, at the completely wrong time of year, after shutting down a lot of the economy (admittedly far too late but it doesn't seem like they're arguing for an earlier and therefore less economically damaging shutdown).
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#39 |
Uncritical "thinker"
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You might find my pinned tweet and thread useful:
https://twitter.com/ParkinJim/status...54955778314240 ETA: Oh, someone's asked threadreaderapp to unroll it https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...778314240.html ETA: I've also added the dates of full lockdown and the excess deaths vs those listed as COVID-19 up week 27, so that threadreader is a bit out of date EdJVUJBWkAAAJHN.png |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#40 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2010
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