[Continuation] Covid-19 and Politics pt 2 - Page 2

Rolfe · 17th July 2020, 10:49 AM

I listened to the weekly Independent Sage livestream this morning and they dealt with this. The statistician said that we've only gone about four months since people began testing positive in large numbers and it was unlikely there would be many cases where someone who had tested positive had then coincidentally died of something completely different within four months.

She said she didn't think there would be a statistically significant influence of this reporting method at the moment, but that it was right to correct it now as obviously it would become more significant as time goes on.

Pixel42 · 17th July 2020, 10:53 AM

The BBC page summarising the data, updated daily, includes a graph similar to the one jimbob posted (scroll just over half way down the page):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

jimbob · 17th July 2020, 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by Pixel42

The BBC page summarising the data, updated daily, includes a graph similar to the one jimbob posted (scroll just over half way down the page):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Yes there really wasn't anything special about that last graph - some of the others, I hadn't seen the particular data arranged as I had.

My last graph was simply plotting the data from here.

Using the date row as the x-axis, and the most complex operation was to subtract the 5-year average row of data from the all-deaths row. The rest is self-explanatory

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales

Rolfe · 17th July 2020, 11:49 AM

This page has all sorts of graphs for Scotland and the guy who makes it is working on a similar thing for England I think.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/

catsmate · 17th July 2020, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I listened to the weekly Independent Sage livestream this morning and they dealt with this. The statistician said that we've only gone about four months since people began testing positive in large numbers and it was unlikely there would be many cases where someone who had tested positive had then coincidentally died of something completely different within four months.

She said she didn't think there would be a statistically significant influence of this reporting method at the moment, but that it was right to correct it now as obviously it would become more significant as time goes on.

So BuBu (or rather his cronies) are playing to the "Covid-19 isn't as dangerous as *they* say" lobby?

Rolfe · 17th July 2020, 12:45 PM

Probably. The statistician said it was an anomaly that needed to be corrected but that at the moment it probably wasn't making any real difference to the figures and it hardly needed grandiose announcements of an inquiry. Hancock is making a bigger fuss about this than anybody did about the revelation that the daily new cases figure announced in England was only Pillar 1 data and the real figure was a lot higher.

Rolfe · 17th July 2020, 03:44 PM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

This page has all sorts of graphs for Scotland and the guy who makes it is working on a similar thing for England I think.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/

The UK page (it's not just England) is now up in a beta-test version here.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Mid · 18th July 2020, 03:13 AM

Return to normality will depend on how "alert" the English are to the virus apparently

. So I hope everyone has their handy virus detecting device ready to go!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ps-coronavirus

The Don · 18th July 2020, 03:33 AM

Originally Posted by Mid

Return to normality will depend on how "alert" the English are to the virus apparently

. So I hope everyone has their handy virus detecting device ready to go!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ps-coronavirus

In other words, the government will take credit for anything good but blame the public for any negative consequences.

Local outbreak ? You failed to control the virus.

Pause in lifting restrictions ? Your fault for being insufficiently alert.

Cases an death toll soaring ? How dare you let Boris Johnson down so badly.

Mid · 18th July 2020, 03:41 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

In other words, the government will take credit for anything good but blame the public for any negative consequences.

Local outbreak ? You failed to control the virus.

Pause in lifting restrictions ? Your fault for being insufficiently alert.

Cases an death toll soaring ? How dare you let Boris Johnson down so badly.

Basically yes, a complete and utter lack of leadership or moral authority.

But that's to be expected with the fat toad that's lying around Downing St and his psychopathic handler

Captain_Swoop · 18th July 2020, 04:03 AM

“We will..allow a significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.”
Has any other British Prime Minister ever made such a fatuous pronouncement on a matter of supreme national importance?

Rolfe · 18th July 2020, 04:05 AM

In international terms England isn't desperately bad at the moment. (It's the worst in the world for deaths per million, but that was then, this is now.) It's been two weeks since the big unwise opening up and although there has been an uptick in cases it's not at the moment looking like a return to exponential growth.

It seems to be a situation where the virus wasn't suppressed far enough before opening up so that continuing cases with R around 1 are a lot higher than desirable or comfortable, but it's staying around that level rather than flaring up again. It's not great because it implies that people are going to go on getting sick and dying at around the present rate for the foreseeable future, but it's not Florida.

Captain_Swoop · 18th July 2020, 04:09 AM

Matt Hancock is now claiming the UK locked down on March 16, not 23! He is suggesting patients were tested before discharge to care homes. 25,000 were not!
Don’t let these criminals rewrite history to cover up their incompetence!

zooterkin · 18th July 2020, 04:19 AM

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

“We will..allow a significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.”
Has any other British Prime Minister ever made such a fatuous pronouncement on a matter of supreme national importance?

The highlighted words are what appeared in headlines, of course.

Even the Grauniad, who you'd hope would know better.

Quote:

Boris Johnson unveils plan to return England 'to normality' by Christmas

Squeegee Beckenheim · 18th July 2020, 04:59 AM

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Matt Hancock is now claiming the UK locked down on March 16, not 23! He is suggesting patients were tested before discharge to care homes. 25,000 were not!
Don’t let these criminals rewrite history to cover up their incompetence!

This is because the UK's chief science adviser has said that the government were told to lockdown a week earlier than they actually did

Rolfe · 18th July 2020, 07:35 AM

Hmm. They're going to stop publishing the daily England death figures while Hancock reviews the data.

Publication of UK daily coronavirus death figures put on 'pause' as Matt Hancock calls for review into PHE data

The article seems to imply that the very high death toll in England compared to the other countries in the UK is due to the figures being exaggerated by statistical flaws. The Independent Sage statistician didn't seem to think that the number of people who died coincidentally of something else after a positive coronavirus result would change the overall number by much. I wonder if they're going to go through the cases and remove everyone who had another health condition as well as the virus and claim that the death was due to that condition?

They can't get away from the excess death figures though. These are absolutely appalling and how is he going to explain that? Suddenly diabetes or heart disease or Alzheimer's got a lot more lethal than they ever were before?

jimbob · 18th July 2020, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Hmm. They're going to stop publishing the daily England death figures while Hancock reviews the data.

Publication of UK daily coronavirus death figures put on 'pause' as Matt Hancock calls for review into PHE data

The article seems to imply that the very high death toll in England compared to the other countries in the UK is due to the figures being exaggerated by statistical flaws. The Independent Sage statistician didn't seem to think that the number of people who died coincidentally of something else after a positive coronavirus result would change the overall number by much. I wonder if they're going to go through the cases and remove everyone who had another health condition as well as the virus and claim that the death was due to that condition?

They can't get away from the excess death figures though. These are absolutely appalling and how is he going to explain that? Suddenly diabetes or heart disease or Alzheimer's got a lot more lethal than they ever were before?

We know it really isn't going to alter it much as we can see there was huge under-counting at the peak of the epidemic.

I can also believe that the excess deaths are actually an underestimate as the lockdown (and subsequent increased hygiene measures) could have suppressed other infectious illnesses and food poisoning, and I haven't seen any assessment for whether those outweigh the deaths caused by the lockdown, for example from delayed medical treatment.

Squeegee Beckenheim · 18th July 2020, 10:43 AM

If he's going to stop the reporting of covid deaths, I hope the media instead start publishing the excess deaths.

Squeegee Beckenheim · 18th July 2020, 10:56 AM

Just to put a tick in the "doing things right" pile, I'll post this article about how the government are telling scientists to ensure that any potential vaccine is made in the UK, to prevent the US stealing it.

Rolfe · 18th July 2020, 12:13 PM

Historically, Britain's vaccine manufacturing industry was far higher quality and safer than the USA's. (My late senior partner was a vaccine scientist in his earlier career and was often heard bemoaning the fact that we'd allowed our vaccine manufacturing to be relocated to the States because the regulations were so much less stringent he believed safety could be compromised. He blamed this for the incident where a contaminated dog distemper/hepatitis vaccine spread canine parvovirus around the world in 1978.)

However, whether we're still holding to more stringent safety requirements I do not know.

Rolfe · 18th July 2020, 12:16 PM

Originally Posted by jimbob

I can also believe that the excess deaths are actually an underestimate as the lockdown (and subsequent increased hygiene measures) could have suppressed other infectious illnesses and food poisoning, and I haven't seen any assessment for whether those outweigh the deaths caused by the lockdown, for example from delayed medical treatment.

I believe there is some evidence from Norway that lockdown itself is a net life-saver, for the reasons you state. However Norway wouldn't have had deaths from delayed medical treatment and the other biggie, the apparent doubling of intimate partner murders, is an unknown quantity.

P.J. Denyer · 18th July 2020, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim

Just to put a tick in the "doing things right" pile, I'll post this article about how the government are telling scientists to ensure that any potential vaccine is made in the UK, to prevent the US stealing it.

Credit where it's due. Rare though that is.

Matthew Best · 18th July 2020, 01:05 PM

On my way into work tonight I saw the remnants of a demonstration that apparently took place in Camden Town this afternoon or early this evening. Some people were walking away from it still shouting about "lockdown" and carrying placards opposing it, and opposing 5G, and vaccinations, and masks, and the New World Order and, well, generally just opposing everything.

I did see one placard that particularly took my interest. It said:

END LOCKDOWN NOW
FREE NHS TO SAVE THOSE IT'S LEFT BEHIND.

Which seemed particularly stupid and callous, but maybe it's just me.

jimbob · 18th July 2020, 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I believe there is some evidence from Norway that lockdown itself is a net life-saver, for the reasons you state. However Norway wouldn't have had deaths from delayed medical treatment and the other biggie, the apparent doubling of intimate partner murders, is an unknown quantity.

This is what it looks like for those deaths listed as respiratory causes (so presumably flu and COPD, for example) again for England and Wales from 2015 to 2020

So there might be a hint of that in these data

Captain_Swoop · 18th July 2020, 04:16 PM

Boris tweeted

Boris Johnson #StayAlert
@BorisJohnson
This weekend, many of us will be seeing friends, going to the pub or going out to restaurants. As we open the economy back up, we must remember to follow social distancing guidelines. Keep yourself, your family and your community safe.

Captain_Swoop · 18th July 2020, 04:23 PM

As you can see a socially distanced pub is a barrel of laughs

Captain_Swoop · 20th July 2020, 02:22 AM

Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire.

Quote:

Sitel, which carries out contact tracing for NHS England, said it was aware of a "local outbreak" at its Motherwell site.

Deputy first minister John Swinney told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland the call centre has been closed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160

Darat · 20th July 2020, 02:27 AM

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160

Wonder if they'll be able to track and trace their contacts?

Ulf Nereng · 20th July 2020, 02:46 AM

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160

The hunters became the hunted!

The Don · 20th July 2020, 03:32 AM

If there was any doubt about how incompetent those in charge of delivering the UK's Test and Trace system is, this is another damning data point:

Quote:

Privacy campaigners say England's test and trace programme has broken a key data protection law.

Quote:

ORG had threatened to go to court to force the government to conduct a data protection impact assessment (DPIA) - a requirement under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for projects that process personal data.

A letter from the Department of Health to the group confirmed that a DPIA was a legal requirement and had not been obtained.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471

Nessie · 20th July 2020, 03:47 AM

Sigh. That inspires no confidence in test and trace.

Rolfe · 20th July 2020, 03:52 AM

Originally Posted by Darat

Wonder if they'll be able to track and trace their contacts?

They won't even be involved. They were apparently working under contract for NHS England, which likes to centralise everything. Our own contact tracers are local boots on the ground working through the local authorities.

And we don't do "track and trace" in Scotland, that's a term invented in England to avoid people thinking too much about testing and isolation. It suggests merely observing what's happening as the virus spreads which seems to be about the size of it. In Scotland we are doing "find, test, contact-trace, isolate and support" which is the recommended procedure. (Shortened to "test and protect".)

Irony of ironies. I have been keeping in touch with three households of elderly cousins all through the epidemic. Last time I spoke to them on the phone I said that since the travel restrictions were about to be lifted I thought I'd drive over to where they live (they're all in the same town) and visit all of them in their gardens on the same trip. I was waiting for a dry and warm day and Thursday was looking good.

Where do they live? Motherwell.

Captain_Swoop · 20th July 2020, 03:52 AM

Why the hell are they doing this from a physical call centre, this is a job that has been proven to be effective with people working from home.

Rolfe · 20th July 2020, 04:12 AM

Mmm. As far as I can make out this is a commercial call centre that hires itself out to work for any client who'll pay them. NHS England has engaged them to do work for the English contact tracing scheme even though the call centre is in Scotland.

This basic model has been heavily criticised elsewhere, with many experts pointing out that the only way to do effective contact tracing is with local teams who know the area, know where people live and work and shop, and can speak to them in their own language. But that's not quite the point here.

It's a commercial call centre. Who it was working for isn't really the point. They could have been phoning people up trying to persuade them to buy double glazing and I suspect that was probably happening in the same building as well but of course the media have latched on to the contact tracing contract. The question is why were people working in a physical call centre in the first place? Yes we've been allowed to go back to work but "work from home if possible" is still the advice as far as I know.

I'm going to call my cousins and postpone my visit until they've cleaned up Motherwell.

catsmate · 20th July 2020, 07:17 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

If there was any doubt about how incompetent those in charge of delivering the UK's Test and Trace system is, this is another damning data point:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471

Meanwhile, in Ireland (also Norn Iron, Spain and Gibraltar)
Cheap, popular and it works
How much did the UK app cost again?

The Don · 20th July 2020, 07:31 AM

Originally Posted by catsmate

Meanwhile, in Ireland (also Norn Iron, Spain and Gibraltar)
Cheap, popular and it works
How much did the UK app cost again?

The app itself, a mere £12 million.

A complete bargain.

Nessie · 20th July 2020, 09:22 AM

I have it on good authority that there has been another cluster in an office where no effort was made to socially distance, said office being the Major Investigation Team with Police Scotland based near Glasgow Airport.

Captain_Swoop · 20th July 2020, 09:24 AM

England’s chief nurse has confirmed she was dropped from a daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing after refusing to back Dominic Cummings.

Quote:

In a trial run for the 1 June briefing, Ruth May said she was asked about Boris Johnson’s chief adviser driving his family from London to Durham during lockdown while his wife had suspected Covid-19.
After she failed to back Cummings, she was told she was no longer needed for the televised press conference taking place later that day, though she was never given an explanation why.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...mings-ruth-may

At the time the story came out, Downing Street said Ruth May had missed the press conference because she was 'stuck in traffic'

Rolfe · 20th July 2020, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by Nessie

I have it on good authority that there has been another cluster in an office where no effort was made to socially distance, said office being the Major Investigation Team with Police Scotland based near Glasgow Airport.

Let's see if that shows up in the daily stats then. The Motherwell cluster hasn't.

The modellers thought there were only about 700 people in Scotland capable of passing on the virus as of last Friday. One in 11,000 of the population or so. But it's still out there and not distancing is insanity on stilts.

The police have often seemed to take the attitude that virus regulations are for them to enforce on other people, not for them to carry out themselves. Maybe that's how they view the law in general.

Rolfe · 20th July 2020, 10:01 AM

Just found out in more detail where this "Motherwell" virus cluster is. It's not as near my cousins as all that (although of course we don't know where the call centre workers actually live), but it is literally smack next door to the hotel restaurant which my friend and I had picked for our big lockdown-loosening outing next week.

Oh well, back to the drawing board. And the takeaway dinners.

17th July 2020, 10:49 AM	#41
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	I listened to the weekly Independent Sage livestream this morning and they dealt with this. The statistician said that we've only gone about four months since people began testing positive in large numbers and it was unlikely there would be many cases where someone who had tested positive had then coincidentally died of something completely different within four months. She said she didn't think there would be a statistically significant influence of this reporting method at the moment, but that it was right to correct it now as obviously it would become more significant as time goes on.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

17th July 2020, 10:53 AM	#42
Pixel42 Schrödinger's cat Join Date: May 2004 Location: Malmesbury, UK Posts: 12,597	The BBC page summarising the data, updated daily, includes a graph similar to the one jimbob posted (scroll just over half way down the page): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
	__________________ "If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett

17th July 2020, 11:07 AM	#43
jimbob Uncritical "thinker" Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: UK Posts: 22,307	Originally Posted by Pixel42 The BBC page summarising the data, updated daily, includes a graph similar to the one jimbob posted (scroll just over half way down the page): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 Yes there really wasn't anything special about that last graph - some of the others, I hadn't seen the particular data arranged as I had. My last graph was simply plotting the data from here. Using the date row as the x-axis, and the most complex operation was to subtract the 5-year average row of data from the all-deaths row. The rest is self-explanatory https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales
	__________________ OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending

17th July 2020, 11:49 AM	#44
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	This page has all sorts of graphs for Scotland and the guy who makes it is working on a similar thing for England I think. https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

17th July 2020, 12:10 PM	#45
catsmate No longer the 1 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 23,085	Originally Posted by Rolfe I listened to the weekly Independent Sage livestream this morning and they dealt with this. The statistician said that we've only gone about four months since people began testing positive in large numbers and it was unlikely there would be many cases where someone who had tested positive had then coincidentally died of something completely different within four months. She said she didn't think there would be a statistically significant influence of this reporting method at the moment, but that it was right to correct it now as obviously it would become more significant as time goes on. So BuBu (or rather his cronies) are playing to the "Covid-19 isn't as dangerous as they say" lobby?
	__________________ As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.

17th July 2020, 12:45 PM	#46
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Probably. The statistician said it was an anomaly that needed to be corrected but that at the moment it probably wasn't making any real difference to the figures and it hardly needed grandiose announcements of an inquiry. Hancock is making a bigger fuss about this than anybody did about the revelation that the daily new cases figure announced in England was only Pillar 1 data and the real figure was a lot higher.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

17th July 2020, 03:44 PM	#47
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Originally Posted by Rolfe This page has all sorts of graphs for Scotland and the guy who makes it is working on a similar thing for England I think. https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/ The UK page (it's not just England) is now up in a beta-test version here. https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

18th July 2020, 03:13 AM	#48
Mid Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,093	Return to normality will depend on how "alert" the English are to the virus apparently . So I hope everyone has their handy virus detecting device ready to go! https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ps-coronavirus
Mid Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,093

18th July 2020, 03:33 AM	#49
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 30,224	Originally Posted by Mid Return to normality will depend on how "alert" the English are to the virus apparently . So I hope everyone has their handy virus detecting device ready to go! https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ps-coronavirus In other words, the government will take credit for anything good but blame the public for any negative consequences. Local outbreak ? You failed to control the virus. Pause in lifting restrictions ? Your fault for being insufficiently alert. Cases an death toll soaring ? How dare you let Boris Johnson down so badly.

18th July 2020, 03:41 AM	#50
Mid Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,093	Originally Posted by The Don In other words, the government will take credit for anything good but blame the public for any negative consequences. Local outbreak ? You failed to control the virus. Pause in lifting restrictions ? Your fault for being insufficiently alert. Cases an death toll soaring ? How dare you let Boris Johnson down so badly. Basically yes, a complete and utter lack of leadership or moral authority. But that's to be expected with the fat toad that's lying around Downing St and his psychopathic handler
Mid Graduate Poster Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,093

18th July 2020, 04:03 AM	#51
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 29,195	“We will..allow a significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.” Has any other British Prime Minister ever made such a fatuous pronouncement on a matter of supreme national importance?

18th July 2020, 04:05 AM	#52
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	In international terms England isn't desperately bad at the moment. (It's the worst in the world for deaths per million, but that was then, this is now.) It's been two weeks since the big unwise opening up and although there has been an uptick in cases it's not at the moment looking like a return to exponential growth. It seems to be a situation where the virus wasn't suppressed far enough before opening up so that continuing cases with R around 1 are a lot higher than desirable or comfortable, but it's staying around that level rather than flaring up again. It's not great because it implies that people are going to go on getting sick and dying at around the present rate for the foreseeable future, but it's not Florida.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. Last edited by Rolfe; 18th July 2020 at 04:13 AM.

18th July 2020, 04:09 AM	#53
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 29,195	Matt Hancock is now claiming the UK locked down on March 16, not 23! He is suggesting patients were tested before discharge to care homes. 25,000 were not! Don’t let these criminals rewrite history to cover up their incompetence!

18th July 2020, 04:19 AM	#54
zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 47,116	Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop “We will..allow a significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.” Has any other British Prime Minister ever made such a fatuous pronouncement on a matter of supreme national importance? The highlighted words are what appeared in headlines, of course. Even the Grauniad, who you'd hope would know better. Quote: Boris Johnson unveils plan to return England 'to normality' by Christmas
	__________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 Last edited by zooterkin; 18th July 2020 at 04:21 AM.

18th July 2020, 04:59 AM	#55
Squeegee Beckenheim Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 30,174	Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop Matt Hancock is now claiming the UK locked down on March 16, not 23! He is suggesting patients were tested before discharge to care homes. 25,000 were not! Don’t let these criminals rewrite history to cover up their incompetence! This is because the UK's chief science adviser has said that the government were told to lockdown a week earlier than they actually did
	__________________ I don't trust atoms. They make up everything.

18th July 2020, 07:35 AM	#56
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Hmm. They're going to stop publishing the daily England death figures while Hancock reviews the data. Publication of UK daily coronavirus death figures put on 'pause' as Matt Hancock calls for review into PHE data The article seems to imply that the very high death toll in England compared to the other countries in the UK is due to the figures being exaggerated by statistical flaws. The Independent Sage statistician didn't seem to think that the number of people who died coincidentally of something else after a positive coronavirus result would change the overall number by much. I wonder if they're going to go through the cases and remove everyone who had another health condition as well as the virus and claim that the death was due to that condition? They can't get away from the excess death figures though. These are absolutely appalling and how is he going to explain that? Suddenly diabetes or heart disease or Alzheimer's got a lot more lethal than they ever were before?
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

18th July 2020, 09:47 AM	#57
jimbob Uncritical "thinker" Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: UK Posts: 22,307	Originally Posted by Rolfe Hmm. They're going to stop publishing the daily England death figures while Hancock reviews the data. Publication of UK daily coronavirus death figures put on 'pause' as Matt Hancock calls for review into PHE data The article seems to imply that the very high death toll in England compared to the other countries in the UK is due to the figures being exaggerated by statistical flaws. The Independent Sage statistician didn't seem to think that the number of people who died coincidentally of something else after a positive coronavirus result would change the overall number by much. I wonder if they're going to go through the cases and remove everyone who had another health condition as well as the virus and claim that the death was due to that condition? They can't get away from the excess death figures though. These are absolutely appalling and how is he going to explain that? Suddenly diabetes or heart disease or Alzheimer's got a lot more lethal than they ever were before? We know it really isn't going to alter it much as we can see there was huge under-counting at the peak of the epidemic. I can also believe that the excess deaths are actually an underestimate as the lockdown (and subsequent increased hygiene measures) could have suppressed other infectious illnesses and food poisoning, and I haven't seen any assessment for whether those outweigh the deaths caused by the lockdown, for example from delayed medical treatment.
	__________________ OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending

18th July 2020, 10:43 AM	#58
Squeegee Beckenheim Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 30,174	If he's going to stop the reporting of covid deaths, I hope the media instead start publishing the excess deaths.
	__________________ I don't trust atoms. They make up everything.

18th July 2020, 10:56 AM	#59
Squeegee Beckenheim Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 30,174	Just to put a tick in the "doing things right" pile, I'll post this article about how the government are telling scientists to ensure that any potential vaccine is made in the UK, to prevent the US stealing it.
	__________________ I don't trust atoms. They make up everything.

18th July 2020, 12:13 PM	#60
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Historically, Britain's vaccine manufacturing industry was far higher quality and safer than the USA's. (My late senior partner was a vaccine scientist in his earlier career and was often heard bemoaning the fact that we'd allowed our vaccine manufacturing to be relocated to the States because the regulations were so much less stringent he believed safety could be compromised. He blamed this for the incident where a contaminated dog distemper/hepatitis vaccine spread canine parvovirus around the world in 1978.) However, whether we're still holding to more stringent safety requirements I do not know.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

18th July 2020, 12:16 PM	#61
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Originally Posted by jimbob I can also believe that the excess deaths are actually an underestimate as the lockdown (and subsequent increased hygiene measures) could have suppressed other infectious illnesses and food poisoning, and I haven't seen any assessment for whether those outweigh the deaths caused by the lockdown, for example from delayed medical treatment. I believe there is some evidence from Norway that lockdown itself is a net life-saver, for the reasons you state. However Norway wouldn't have had deaths from delayed medical treatment and the other biggie, the apparent doubling of intimate partner murders, is an unknown quantity.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

18th July 2020, 12:20 PM	#62
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,633	Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim Just to put a tick in the "doing things right" pile, I'll post this article about how the government are telling scientists to ensure that any potential vaccine is made in the UK, to prevent the US stealing it. Credit where it's due. Rare though that is.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,633	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

18th July 2020, 01:05 PM	#63
Matthew Best Philosopher Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Leicester Square, London Posts: 7,830	On my way into work tonight I saw the remnants of a demonstration that apparently took place in Camden Town this afternoon or early this evening. Some people were walking away from it still shouting about "lockdown" and carrying placards opposing it, and opposing 5G, and vaccinations, and masks, and the New World Order and, well, generally just opposing everything. I did see one placard that particularly took my interest. It said: END LOCKDOWN NOW FREE NHS TO SAVE THOSE IT'S LEFT BEHIND. Which seemed particularly stupid and callous, but maybe it's just me.

18th July 2020, 01:57 PM	#64
jimbob Uncritical "thinker" Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: UK Posts: 22,307	Originally Posted by Rolfe I believe there is some evidence from Norway that lockdown itself is a net life-saver, for the reasons you state. However Norway wouldn't have had deaths from delayed medical treatment and the other biggie, the apparent doubling of intimate partner murders, is an unknown quantity. This is what it looks like for those deaths listed as respiratory causes (so presumably flu and COPD, for example) again for England and Wales from 2015 to 2020 So there might be a hint of that in these data
	__________________ OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending

18th July 2020, 04:16 PM	#65
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 29,195	Boris tweeted Boris Johnson #StayAlert @BorisJohnson This weekend, many of us will be seeing friends, going to the pub or going out to restaurants. As we open the economy back up, we must remember to follow social distancing guidelines. Keep yourself, your family and your community safe.

18th July 2020, 04:23 PM	#66
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 29,195	As you can see a socially distanced pub is a barrel of laughs
	Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 18th July 2020 at 04:25 PM.

20th July 2020, 02:22 AM	#67
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 29,195	Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire. Quote: Sitel, which carries out contact tracing for NHS England, said it was aware of a "local outbreak" at its Motherwell site. Deputy first minister John Swinney told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland the call centre has been closed. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160

20th July 2020, 02:27 AM	#68
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 94,146	Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160 Wonder if they'll be able to track and trace their contacts?
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

20th July 2020, 02:46 AM	#69
Ulf Nereng Muse Join Date: Sep 2019 Location: Norway Posts: 506	Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop Six people have tested positive for coronavirus in an outbreak at a test and trace call centre in North Lanarkshire. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160 The hunters became the hunted!

20th July 2020, 03:32 AM	#70
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 30,224	If there was any doubt about how incompetent those in charge of delivering the UK's Test and Trace system is, this is another damning data point: Quote: Privacy campaigners say England's test and trace programme has broken a key data protection law. Quote: ORG had threatened to go to court to force the government to conduct a data protection impact assessment (DPIA) - a requirement under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for projects that process personal data. A letter from the Department of Health to the group confirmed that a DPIA was a legal requirement and had not been obtained. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471

20th July 2020, 03:47 AM	#71
Nessie Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 12,830	Sigh. That inspires no confidence in test and trace.
	__________________ Audiophile/biker/sceptic Last edited by Nessie; 20th July 2020 at 03:48 AM.

20th July 2020, 03:52 AM	#72
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Originally Posted by Darat Wonder if they'll be able to track and trace their contacts? They won't even be involved. They were apparently working under contract for NHS England, which likes to centralise everything. Our own contact tracers are local boots on the ground working through the local authorities. And we don't do "track and trace" in Scotland, that's a term invented in England to avoid people thinking too much about testing and isolation. It suggests merely observing what's happening as the virus spreads which seems to be about the size of it. In Scotland we are doing "find, test, contact-trace, isolate and support" which is the recommended procedure. (Shortened to "test and protect".) Irony of ironies. I have been keeping in touch with three households of elderly cousins all through the epidemic. Last time I spoke to them on the phone I said that since the travel restrictions were about to be lifted I thought I'd drive over to where they live (they're all in the same town) and visit all of them in their gardens on the same trip. I was waiting for a dry and warm day and Thursday was looking good. Where do they live? Motherwell.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

20th July 2020, 04:12 AM	#74
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,078	Mmm. As far as I can make out this is a commercial call centre that hires itself out to work for any client who'll pay them. NHS England has engaged them to do work for the English contact tracing scheme even though the call centre is in Scotland. This basic model has been heavily criticised elsewhere, with many experts pointing out that the only way to do effective contact tracing is with local teams who know the area, know where people live and work and shop, and can speak to them in their own language. But that's not quite the point here. It's a commercial call centre. Who it was working for isn't really the point. They could have been phoning people up trying to persuade them to buy double glazing and I suspect that was probably happening in the same building as well but of course the media have latched on to the contact tracing contract. The question is why were people working in a physical call centre in the first place? Yes we've been allowed to go back to work but "work from home if possible" is still the advice as far as I know. I'm going to call my cousins and postpone my visit until they've cleaned up Motherwell.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

20th July 2020, 07:17 AM	#75
catsmate No longer the 1 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 23,085	Originally Posted by The Don If there was any doubt about how incompetent those in charge of delivering the UK's Test and Trace system is, this is another damning data point: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53466471 Meanwhile, in Ireland (also Norn Iron, Spain and Gibraltar) Cheap, popular and it works How much did the UK app cost again?
	__________________ As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.

20th July 2020, 07:31 AM	#76
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 30,224	Originally Posted by catsmate Meanwhile, in Ireland (also Norn Iron, Spain and Gibraltar) Cheap, popular and it works How much did the UK app cost again? The app itself, a mere £12 million. A complete bargain.