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#1 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 28,946
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Covid-19 and Politics Part 3 / Vaccine Nationalism
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The parting on the Left Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend |
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#2 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 101,822
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I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#3 |
BOFH
Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: People's Republic of South Yorkshire
Posts: 14,470
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![]() https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres...l/en/ip_21_302 |
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"Your deepest pools, like your deepest politicians and philosophers, often turn out more shallow than expected." Walter Scott. |
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#4 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,047
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#5 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,093
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Our "neighbourhood" is on 48.6, although the local authority as a whole is on 79.6. Wouldn't you be better going by your own neighbourhood if you're not planning on going far? There were reports of an "outbreak" in the village where I live in the middle of last week, but I don't think we were anything out of the ordinary and the doctor's surgery were telling people the testing centre was set up in the village more because of geography - we're 40 miles from the county hospital and possibly the same to the airport where there is a test centre. Some people were getting tested although they knew they couldn't have been exposed but I didn't bother. First rule of laboratory medicine, if you know for certain what the result is going to be, don't do the test (unless it's a real population survey, which this wasn't). I walked into the centre of the village this afternoon to pay my newspaper bill and buy some more tapeworm tablets for the cat, because the weather forecast says we might be snowed in tonight or tomorrow for a few days. Not that it's impossible to walk the 500 yards to the village centre no matter how much snow there is but why make it difficult? Both shops I went into are one-customer-only and have perspex shields at the counters, but I wore the FFP3 anyway. I met a friend on the way back so I dropped my purchases off at my house and continued on a walk with her. I think it's legal anyway, but since I'm in a rather arms-length extended household with her and her husband, it was OK regardless. Her husband has already had his first vaccine dose and everyone seems to think they're getting through the lists pretty well despite the attempts at bad publicity and rubbishing the system. Numbers of new infections are certainly coming down. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#6 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,047
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If it helps save lives and get the UK variant taken more seriously, then we should call it that.
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#7 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 5,618
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#8 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Denmark
Posts: 6,361
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Originally Posted by Airfix
And then, of course, there is the question of accreditation. But I am sure that new facilities will spring up everywhere, now that most of the world will need yearly shots against seasonal variants of COVID-19. It may just not be ready for another year. |
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Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none! |
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#9 |
Schrödinger's cat
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 14,616
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Wasn't Bill Gates going to build manufacturing facilities in advance for the most promising vaccines? Haven't heard any more about that since he announced it.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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#10 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 5,618
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Correct, flu vaccine manufacturing cannot be switched to making mRNA vaccine, nor to the adenovirus vector vaccines. There are more flu-like vaccine vaccines but none are licensed.
That there has been little flu this summer (in the south) or this winter in the North does not mean flu will not circulate in e.g. Australia and NZ as they come into winter since they are not in lock-down. Nor that it will not be an issue next winter in the North. We do not want to have illness and deaths that were vaccine preventable stressing the health service next winter. In a broader context there is concern that focus is coming off the global delivery of childhood vaccines, deaths in elderly white men in rich countries will be prevented at the cost of deaths of brown babies in poor countries. https://www.who.int/news-room/facts-...l/immunization https://www.chop.edu/centers-program...nes-world-view |
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#11 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 5,618
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Probably because the investment is going to deliver in the developing world, not in the rich west.
https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room...countries-2021 https://www.who.int/news/item/18-12-...arting-q1-2021 https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Medi...ID-19-vaccines |
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#12 |
Schrödinger's cat
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 14,616
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Good to know that's happening. Thanks for the links.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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#13 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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The UK death numbers are still high.
Quote:
Deaths are a trailing indicator, and the registered deaths may have occurred days or even weeks ago but it's still a very sobering number. Early in the pandemic, Stephen Powis, NHS England's medical director was confident that the UK death toll could be kept to 20,000. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...dical-director Unfortunately, we'd be doing well to keep it to 20,000 this month ![]() |
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#14 |
Philosophile
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 32,791
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Слава Україні! **** Putin! |
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#15 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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#16 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,047
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In response to the virus, the British government has been slow to lockdown, too hasty to come out of lockdown and has yo yo'ed viciously instead of taking all necessary action to save lives and bring this situation to an end.
The only thing they've got right in all of this has been the vaccine programme. Everything else, dreadful, I have friends who have had this virus, one of my friends died from it. When all this is over, Boris Johnson will need to resign. He should resign now, but nobody in their right mind would want the job right now. |
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#17 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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It's just about the only thing that they've left in the hands of people who have relevant expertise as opposed to inventing something completely new from scratch.
It's true that the vaccination programme seems to be rolling along well. The abject failure of everything else means that all of our eggs are in that one basket so to speak. If the vaccination programme isn't a resounding success then we're absolutely knackered. It's not just a matter of delivering 90 million vaccinations, it's making sure that there's adequate immunity to stop Covid in its tracks. The emergence of new strains is something completely out of control of the vaccination team but the emergence of resistant strains could result in the whole programme being undermined. |
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#18 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,093
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And there is still a risk until people have had their second vaccinations.
The problem is that they seem to be rocking along on the assumption that the measured primary immune response will be maintained for at least 12 weeks. But there are no data to support that and we all know that the primary vaccine response is quite short-lived and wanes relatively quickly. There could well be a period of susceptibility in the weeks before the second shot is due and indeed I'm already hearing about people who have been catching the virus six weeks after their first dose. If all the ballyhoo about people being "vaccinated" when they've had a single dose causes people to go out and do things they wouldn't have done before that dose, we could actually see more deaths, not fewer. We also don't know if the immune response will be as strong if the second dose is delayed, compared to its being given on time. Hopefully this is a baseless worry, but we don't know. They're taking a huge gamble on some not very sound assumptions, to avoid more bad headlines and make it look as if they can at least get the vaccinations right, when they can't. It's snowing fit to bust here, on top of snow still lying from the last lot. I've just climbed up into my garage loft and brought down some fruit juice, biscuits and tins of soup from my store. I'm going absolutely nowhere at all other than picking up bread and milk etc. from the hotel doorway until at least the end of April, vaccination or no vaccination. And even then, unless the numbers show that community transmission is under control in my neighbourhood, it will be a masked sortie to the pet emporium only. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#19 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,047
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The one thing that gives me hope, regarding the evolving strains of the virus, is that viral evolution tends to produce less lethal rather than more lethal strains, more infectious (of course), but viruses that kill their hosts kill themselves off.
I'd hope in the long term, this becomes a less serious issue. |
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#20 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,093
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I don't think there's any evidence for the "less lethal strains" thing. There are still plenty people to infect even after you've killed rather a lot. Mutations are random. Selection pressure is the thing and mainly that's going to favour more infectious strains. Whether these are more or less lethal is going to be a matter of chance I think.
Coronaviruses are generally quite stable, as viruses go. The trouble is that too many goverenments lacked the political will to do what should have been done and thought they'd just try to ride it out, letting the virus multiply as much as it liked so long as the hospitals weren't completely overwhelmed. This has allowed so much viral multiplication that problematic mutations have been facilitated. What's the chances of any of these lessons having been learned and staying learned for the next time anything like this happens? Not a lot, I suspect. We'll maybe see a few more New Zealands and Vietnams, but many countries will still have idiots in charge who capitulate to the "but we can't possibly lock down/close the borders/run an efficient contact tracing operation" lobbies. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#21 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 101,822
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Be interesting to see if the media go with a “Johnson killed our hero” or “Sir Tom was a true hero” approach. Johnson is probably trying to spin this like mad.
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#22 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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#23 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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Oh dear, Matt Hancock is confident that the second vaccinations will be done in time:
Quote:
IMO this is a clear indication that he's not confident and the second vaccinations will slip and slip as the government try to keep the positive headlines coming by vaccinating as many people as possible for the first time. |
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#24 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,093
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#25 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 5,618
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#26 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Leching at tractors (in Wales)
Posts: 27,837
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#27 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,093
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How do you know that? I understood that people were being told that the second dose would be some time between six and twelve weeks, that is if they weren't given an actual appointment at the time of the first dose.
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#28 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2016
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#29 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,093
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It doesn't work like that. The strains that become dominant are the ones that happen to spread most effectively. That can be a chance thing like a super-shedder catching it and going on a pub-crawl, or it can be a more transmissible variant. Whether such a strain is less pathogenic is pure chance. I can't see any particular reason to hope it might happen.
I can see every reason to hope that developed first world countries will be able to end community transmission of this virus in the summer and by a combination of population vaccination, compulsory vaccination for incoming travellers and a decent surveillance system, keep it that way. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#30 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 5,618
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Because we (NHS and Care staff) are all receiving appointments for our second doses this month. This is somewhat earlier than the 3 months, for most people it is about 8 weeks, for some as short a time as 4 weeks. Since I think deferring the second dose will maximise its benefit I have booked my second dose as late as possible - 8 weeks.
Scottish stats table 1 here. https://beta.isdscotland.org/media/7...ion_report.pdf |
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#31 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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A few weeks ago a study indicated that the majority of those who have had Covid are immune for up to five months.
A newer study shows that antibodies last at least 6 months
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#32 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Leching at tractors (in Wales)
Posts: 27,837
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#33 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
Posts: 26,949
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In Japan news, the state of emergency has been extended for another month. The site I use for tracking (this site) shows that new cases are trending downward. However, the availability of hospital beds remains dire. Some patients, even with breathing difficulty are being told to stay at home because no beds are available to care for them.
Vaccines may finally arrive in Japan later this month: Japan aims to start COVID-19 vaccinations mid-February: PM Suga
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Coronavirus: WHO criticises EU over vaccine export controls (BBC)
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Japan has lagged behind in developing its own vaccine, so it will be relying on other countries for the supply, unfortunately. Japan has a history of being very cautious when it comes to vaccines. Why Japan is largely a spectator in the coronavirus vaccine race Meanwhile, some politicians here have not covered themselves in glory: Suga apologizes over lawmakers’ visit to Ginza nightclubs
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A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare |
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#34 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 42,177
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#35 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 42,177
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Boris says we should all be able to have our summer holidays and schools will be opening as soon as possible.
It's like he never learns. |
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#36 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,186
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It's more like he simply doesn't care.
He wants and needs positive headlines to distract from utter incompetence of the government on so many fronts. Summer holidays and schools opening are the jangling keys to distract the infants. He gets the positive headlines today - any possible negative consequences are in the future. |
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#37 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Leching at tractors (in Wales)
Posts: 27,837
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More bollocks from Dido Harding*:
"Between that business plan being published and us going into the lockdown that we are in now, we’ve seen the virus mutate. We have seen the new variant emerge, which was something that none of us were able to predict." link Immediately debunked by a commentator with a reference to an article published last March *Silly to expect anything else, really. |
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#38 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,047
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I conceded that I am not a doctor and am speaking out of ignorance here I may well be wrong on this:
My consideration was based on the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 - 1920. 100m died, afterwards this hugely infectious viral strain disappeared. Is it a fair assessment as a layman to state that it wiped itself out whilst less deadly strains of flu persisted ? |
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#39 |
should be banned
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside
Posts: 17,422
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Matt Handcock, (or another Tory cock) on R4 this morning said in a puff piece for Astrazenica they are 'producing the Oxford vaccine at cost......:
Of course they are, but they are selling it to the UK at $4 a shot and the EU at $2.15 |
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#40 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 8,324
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Yeah it would seem that the virus only has to not kill its host so fast that they don't have time to spread it.
One odd thing for me is that while you have the NZ and Vietnams that completely locked down and showing benefits there are also places that don't seem to be very bothered at all like Brazil where the infection rates don't seem to be all that much different to here where we are being limited in what we do and still seem to be one of the worst places in the world for infections. It's all a bit confusing really. |
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