Merged: Covid-19 and Politics Part 3 / Vaccine Nationalism

[Vixen]

Continued from here

Posted By:Agatha

Originally Posted by The Don

Some good news for The Don family. The headline case rate (number tested positive in the last 7 days per 100,000) in Monmouthshire is down to 95/100,000, a month ago it was 500/100,000. This seems to indicate that being out and about, while taking suitable precautions, is significantly less risky than it was quite recently. We'll still be wary, but there's less reason to be paranoid.

More good news. The rules in Wales changed on 30 January. We can now meet another person outside our household for exercise. This means that Mrs Don can go for a walk with a friend or I can go for a run or a ride with my neighbour.

edited to add.....

Today's headline figure is 85.6/100,000

116/100K here.

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Vixen

I see the wording 'reasonable best efforts' ...snip...

Yet that’s not what they actually mean in a contract under UK law or indeed EU law.

[Wudang]

In fact the contract defines it as above. And a CMO (referenced above) is a Contract Manufacturing Organization. The documents can be downloaded from
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres...l/en/ip_21_302

[Airfix]

Originally Posted by Vixen

It's under patent. Trade secrets.

And that can be dealt with via confidentiality agreements and a production licence.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by The Don

Some good news for The Don family. The headline case rate (number tested positive in the last 7 days per 100,000) in Monmouthshire is down to 95/100,000, a month ago it was 500/100,000. This seems to indicate that being out and about, while taking suitable precautions, is significantly less risky than it was quite recently. We'll still be wary, but there's less reason to be paranoid.

More good news. The rules in Wales changed on 30 January. We can now meet another person outside our household for exercise. This means that Mrs Don can go for a walk with a friend or I can go for a run or a ride with my neighbour.

edited to add.....

Today's headline figure is 85.6/100,000

Our "neighbourhood" is on 48.6, although the local authority as a whole is on 79.6. Wouldn't you be better going by your own neighbourhood if you're not planning on going far?

There were reports of an "outbreak" in the village where I live in the middle of last week, but I don't think we were anything out of the ordinary and the doctor's surgery were telling people the testing centre was set up in the village more because of geography - we're 40 miles from the county hospital and possibly the same to the airport where there is a test centre. Some people were getting tested although they knew they couldn't have been exposed but I didn't bother. First rule of laboratory medicine, if you know for certain what the result is going to be, don't do the test (unless it's a real population survey, which this wasn't).

I walked into the centre of the village this afternoon to pay my newspaper bill and buy some more tapeworm tablets for the cat, because the weather forecast says we might be snowed in tonight or tomorrow for a few days. Not that it's impossible to walk the 500 yards to the village centre no matter how much snow there is but why make it difficult? Both shops I went into are one-customer-only and have perspex shields at the counters, but I wore the FFP3 anyway.

I met a friend on the way back so I dropped my purchases off at my house and continued on a walk with her. I think it's legal anyway, but since I'm in a rather arms-length extended household with her and her husband, it was OK regardless. Her husband has already had his first vaccine dose and everyone seems to think they're getting through the lists pretty well despite the attempts at bad publicity and rubbishing the system. Numbers of new infections are certainly coming down.

[Airfix]

If it helps save lives and get the UK variant taken more seriously, then we should call it that.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Darat

Yet that’s not what they actually mean in a contract under UK law or indeed EU law.

The contract is enforceable under Belgium law, it may have a particular meaning in that jurisdiction.

[steenkh]

Originally Posted by Airfix

As I understand it seasonal flu infections have fallen strongly.
If that is the case, producers of flu vaccines may have redundant production capacity that could be turned over to Covid vaccine production, if it hasn't already been.

Something to consider... If the capacity exists.

As I understand it, there is a huge difference between mRNA vaccine production and and flu vaccine production, and it is not possible to simply switch production. It may be different with viral vector vaccines, like the AZ, but I doubt it.

And then, of course, there is the question of accreditation.

But I am sure that new facilities will spring up everywhere, now that most of the world will need yearly shots against seasonal variants of COVID-19. It may just not be ready for another year.

[Pixel42]

Wasn't Bill Gates going to build manufacturing facilities in advance for the most promising vaccines? Haven't heard any more about that since he announced it.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by steenkh

As I understand it, there is a huge difference between mRNA vaccine production and and flu vaccine production, and it is not possible to simply switch production. It may be different with viral vector vaccines, like the AZ, but I doubt it.

And then, of course, there is the question of accreditation.

But I am sure that new facilities will spring up everywhere, now that most of the world will need yearly shots against seasonal variants of COVID-19. It may just not be ready for another year.

Correct, flu vaccine manufacturing cannot be switched to making mRNA vaccine, nor to the adenovirus vector vaccines. There are more flu-like vaccine vaccines but none are licensed.

That there has been little flu this summer (in the south) or this winter in the North does not mean flu will not circulate in e.g. Australia and NZ as they come into winter since they are not in lock-down. Nor that it will not be an issue next winter in the North. We do not want to have illness and deaths that were vaccine preventable stressing the health service next winter.

In a broader context there is concern that focus is coming off the global delivery of childhood vaccines, deaths in elderly white men in rich countries will be prevented at the cost of deaths of brown babies in poor countries.

https://www.who.int/news-room/facts-...l/immunization
https://www.chop.edu/centers-program...nes-world-view

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

Wasn't Bill Gates going to build manufacturing facilities in advance for the most promising vaccines? Haven't heard any more about that since he announced it.

Probably because the investment is going to deliver in the developing world, not in the rich west.

https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room...countries-2021
https://www.who.int/news/item/18-12-...arting-q1-2021
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Medi...ID-19-vaccines

[Pixel42]

Good to know that's happening. Thanks for the links.

[The Don]

The UK death numbers are still high.

Quote:

A total of 8,422 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 22 January mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, according to the Office for National Statistics.

It is the second highest weekly number since the pandemic began.

The figure is up from 7,245 deaths in the week to 15 January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

Deaths are a trailing indicator, and the registered deaths may have occurred days or even weeks ago but it's still a very sobering number. Early in the pandemic, Stephen Powis, NHS England's medical director was confident that the UK death toll could be kept to 20,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...dical-director

Unfortunately, we'd be doing well to keep it to 20,000 this month

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Don

The UK death numbers are still high.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

Deaths are a trailing indicator, and the registered deaths may have occurred days or even weeks ago but it's still a very sobering number. Early in the pandemic, Stephen Powis, NHS England's medical director was confident that the UK death toll could be kept to 20,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...dical-director

Unfortunately, we'd be doing well to keep it to 20,000 this month

Those numbers are crazy.

I spoke to my parents on Zoom at the weekend and they asked if there had been a lot of casualties in Japan. I said that there had been about 5000-6000*. But that is in total.

*assuming these numbers are counted the same way/and are trustworthy.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Those numbers are crazy.

I spoke to my parents on Zoom at the weekend and they asked if there had been a lot of casualties in Japan. I said that there had been about 5000-6000*. But that is in total.

*assuming these numbers are counted the same way/and are trustworthy.

Apparently there are *reasons* why the UK's woeful performance cannot be compared to other countries'.

Now is apparently also not the time to review the UK's performance internally.

[Airfix]

In response to the virus, the British government has been slow to lockdown, too hasty to come out of lockdown and has yo yo'ed viciously instead of taking all necessary action to save lives and bring this situation to an end.

The only thing they've got right in all of this has been the vaccine programme. Everything else, dreadful, I have friends who have had this virus, one of my friends died from it.

When all this is over, Boris Johnson will need to resign.
He should resign now, but nobody in their right mind would want the job right now.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Airfix

In response to the virus, the British government has been slow to lockdown, too hasty to come out of lockdown and has yo yo'ed viciously instead of taking all necessary action to save lives and bring this situation to an end.

The only thing they've got right in all of this has been the vaccine programme. Everything else, dreadful, I have friends who have had this virus, one of my friends died from it.

When all this is over, Boris Johnson will need to resign.
He should resign now, but nobody in their right mind would want the job right now.

It's just about the only thing that they've left in the hands of people who have relevant expertise as opposed to inventing something completely new from scratch.

It's true that the vaccination programme seems to be rolling along well. The abject failure of everything else means that all of our eggs are in that one basket so to speak. If the vaccination programme isn't a resounding success then we're absolutely knackered. It's not just a matter of delivering 90 million vaccinations, it's making sure that there's adequate immunity to stop Covid in its tracks. The emergence of new strains is something completely out of control of the vaccination team but the emergence of resistant strains could result in the whole programme being undermined.

[Rolfe]

And there is still a risk until people have had their second vaccinations.

The problem is that they seem to be rocking along on the assumption that the measured primary immune response will be maintained for at least 12 weeks. But there are no data to support that and we all know that the primary vaccine response is quite short-lived and wanes relatively quickly. There could well be a period of susceptibility in the weeks before the second shot is due and indeed I'm already hearing about people who have been catching the virus six weeks after their first dose. If all the ballyhoo about people being "vaccinated" when they've had a single dose causes people to go out and do things they wouldn't have done before that dose, we could actually see more deaths, not fewer.

We also don't know if the immune response will be as strong if the second dose is delayed, compared to its being given on time. Hopefully this is a baseless worry, but we don't know. They're taking a huge gamble on some not very sound assumptions, to avoid more bad headlines and make it look as if they can at least get the vaccinations right, when they can't.

It's snowing fit to bust here, on top of snow still lying from the last lot. I've just climbed up into my garage loft and brought down some fruit juice, biscuits and tins of soup from my store. I'm going absolutely nowhere at all other than picking up bread and milk etc. from the hotel doorway until at least the end of April, vaccination or no vaccination. And even then, unless the numbers show that community transmission is under control in my neighbourhood, it will be a masked sortie to the pet emporium only.

[Airfix]

The one thing that gives me hope, regarding the evolving strains of the virus, is that viral evolution tends to produce less lethal rather than more lethal strains, more infectious (of course), but viruses that kill their hosts kill themselves off.

I'd hope in the long term, this becomes a less serious issue.

[Rolfe]

I don't think there's any evidence for the "less lethal strains" thing. There are still plenty people to infect even after you've killed rather a lot. Mutations are random. Selection pressure is the thing and mainly that's going to favour more infectious strains. Whether these are more or less lethal is going to be a matter of chance I think.

Coronaviruses are generally quite stable, as viruses go. The trouble is that too many goverenments lacked the political will to do what should have been done and thought they'd just try to ride it out, letting the virus multiply as much as it liked so long as the hospitals weren't completely overwhelmed. This has allowed so much viral multiplication that problematic mutations have been facilitated.

What's the chances of any of these lessons having been learned and staying learned for the next time anything like this happens? Not a lot, I suspect. We'll maybe see a few more New Zealands and Vietnams, but many countries will still have idiots in charge who capitulate to the "but we can't possibly lock down/close the borders/run an efficient contact tracing operation" lobbies.

[Darat]

Be interesting to see if the media go with a “Johnson killed our hero” or “Sir Tom was a true hero” approach. Johnson is probably trying to spin this like mad.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Darat

Be interesting to see if the media go with a “Johnson killed our hero” or “Sir Tom was a true hero” approach. Johnson is probably trying to spin this like mad.

I wonder how he caught it ?

I presume from a carer or family member.

[The Don]

Oh dear, Matt Hancock is confident that the second vaccinations will be done in time:

Quote:

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has been answering MPs questions this afternoon and says he has a "high degree of confidence" that people will get their second Covid jabs on time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

IMO this is a clear indication that he's not confident and the second vaccinations will slip and slip as the government try to keep the positive headlines coming by vaccinating as many people as possible for the first time.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by The Don

I wonder how he caught it ?

I presume from a carer or family member.

He was treated to a holiday in Barbados or somewhere like that over Christmas. I don't know if the timing is right for that to have been the contact. It's possible he enjoyed that sufficiently that he'd have thought it a good trade, of course.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by The Don

Oh dear, Matt Hancock is confident that the second vaccinations will be done in time:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

IMO this is a clear indication that he's not confident and the second vaccinations will slip and slip as the government try to keep the positive headlines coming by vaccinating as many people as possible for the first time.

If you look at the stats a lot of second doses have already been given out, often the missed doses or left over. I have already been called for my second dose and have a date. So this is happening.

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by Planigale

If you look at the stats a lot of second doses have already been given out, often the missed doses or left over. I have already been called for my second dose and have a date. So this is happening.

How much? Do you have a link to any stats? My 2nd is 12 weeks away.

[Rolfe]

How do you know that? I understood that people were being told that the second dose would be some time between six and twelve weeks, that is if they weren't given an actual appointment at the time of the first dose.

[Airfix]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I don't think there's any evidence for the "less lethal strains" thing.

I'm not a doctor, I may well be wrong.
I'm just hoping that ultimately a less dangerous strain emerges.

[Rolfe]

It doesn't work like that. The strains that become dominant are the ones that happen to spread most effectively. That can be a chance thing like a super-shedder catching it and going on a pub-crawl, or it can be a more transmissible variant. Whether such a strain is less pathogenic is pure chance. I can't see any particular reason to hope it might happen.

I can see every reason to hope that developed first world countries will be able to end community transmission of this virus in the summer and by a combination of population vaccination, compulsory vaccination for incoming travellers and a decent surveillance system, keep it that way.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

How do you know that? I understood that people were being told that the second dose would be some time between six and twelve weeks, that is if they weren't given an actual appointment at the time of the first dose.

Because we (NHS and Care staff) are all receiving appointments for our second doses this month. This is somewhat earlier than the 3 months, for most people it is about 8 weeks, for some as short a time as 4 weeks. Since I think deferring the second dose will maximise its benefit I have booked my second dose as late as possible - 8 weeks.

Scottish stats table 1 here.
https://beta.isdscotland.org/media/7...ion_report.pdf

[The Don]

A few weeks ago a study indicated that the majority of those who have had Covid are immune for up to five months.

A newer study shows that antibodies last at least 6 months

Quote:

As many as 88% of people still have antibodies in their blood to fight Covid-19 six months after infection, a study of almost 1,700 people suggests.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55905158

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

How do you know that? I understood that people were being told that the second dose would be some time between six and twelve weeks, that is if they weren't given an actual appointment at the time of the first dose.

Well, we were told to expect 12 weeks, though it could be sooner than that presumably.

[Puppycow]

In Japan news, the state of emergency has been extended for another month. The site I use for tracking (this site) shows that new cases are trending downward. However, the availability of hospital beds remains dire. Some patients, even with breathing difficulty are being told to stay at home because no beds are available to care for them.

Vaccines may finally arrive in Japan later this month:

Japan aims to start COVID-19 vaccinations mid-February: PM Suga

Quote:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said Tuesday the government aims to start COVID-19 vaccinations for health workers in Japan in mid-February, earlier than late February as previously targeted.

The announcement comes as Suga struggles to bring the coronavirus under control in the face of criticism of a sluggish pandemic response and ahead of this summer's Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics.

I see the government is still claiming that the Olympics will happen this summer.

Quote:

A health ministry panel could approve Pfizer Inc.'s vaccine on Feb. 12, according to an official with knowledge of the matter. The first batch of doses would then arrive from Belgium in Japan on Feb. 14 with final approval for the vaccine expected to come the following day.

The government plans to inoculate 10,000 health workers participating in trial vaccinations to confirm their safety in February, followed by an additional 3.7 million frontline health workers from mid-March.

People aged 65 and older, a group of about 36 million, will follow at the beginning of April at the earliest, followed by people with pre-existing conditions, then finally the general population.

Suga has pledged to secure vaccines for Japan's entire population of 126 million, though he admitted at a press conference the country has fallen behind other countries in beginning to administer shots, citing an abundance of caution in ensuring their safety.

Those dates sound rather optimistic to me, but we'll see. As far as I know, no vaccine is being produced in Japan, so the country will rely on imports. Specifically, the above says that the vaccine will be coming from Belgium. However:

Coronavirus: WHO criticises EU over vaccine export controls (BBC)

Quote:

What is the EU doing?

The European Union is introducing export controls on coronavirus vaccines made in the bloc, amid a row about delivery shortfalls.

The so-called transparency mechanism gives EU countries powers to deny authorisation for vaccine exports if the company making them has not honoured existing contracts with the EU.

"The protection and safety of our citizens is a priority and the challenges we now face left us with no choice but to act," the European Commission said.

Quote:

Why is this happening now?

The news comes with the EU in a very public dispute with drug-maker AstraZeneca over supplies, and under growing pressure over the slow pace of vaccine distribution.

Earlier on Friday the Commission made public a confidential contract with AstraZeneca, the UK-Swedish company behind the Oxford vaccine, to bolster its argument that the firm has been failing to fulfil its promises to deliver to the bloc.

The contract stipulates that the pharmaceutical company would commit its "best reasonable efforts" to manufacture and distribute doses.

AstraZeneca has blamed the delays on production glitches at plants in the Netherlands and Belgium, as well as the late signing of contracts.

What's the problem with the EU's vaccine programme?
Covid: Why is EU’s vaccine rollout so slow?

Under the EU's new rule, vaccine firms will have to seek permission before supplying doses beyond the EU. Its 27 member states will be able to vet those export applications.

Vaccines produced by Pfizer in Belgium are currently being exported to the UK, and the EU insists that some of the AstraZeneca vaccine produced in England is destined under contract for EU citizens.

The EU is also in a supply dispute with Pfizer, which is set to fall short of the contracted vaccine volume for the EU by the end of March. Pfizer says the reason for that is the urgent expansion of its facility in Puurs, Belgium.

As I see it, shipments to Japan could be delayed, or the quantity thereof reduced, by the EU so as to prioritize its own citizens. We'll see.

Japan has lagged behind in developing its own vaccine, so it will be relying on other countries for the supply, unfortunately. Japan has a history of being very cautious when it comes to vaccines.

Why Japan is largely a spectator in the coronavirus vaccine race

Meanwhile, some politicians here have not covered themselves in glory:

Suga apologizes over lawmakers’ visit to Ginza nightclubs

Quote:

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has apologized to the public after three lawmakers from his own party visited two Ginza nightclubs during the state of emergency issued over the novel coronavirus pandemic.

“At a time when we were asking the public for their understanding and cooperation, politicians should have been serving as role models, but what occurred is unacceptable and extremely regrettable," Suga said on Feb. 2, during the Upper House plenary session. “I express my heartfelt apology to the public.”

Three members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party visited Tokyo’s swanky Ginza district in mid-January, during the state of emergency in effect for the capital and 10 other prefectures. They all formally left the party on Feb. 1.

One of the three, Jun Matsumoto, had initially said he visited the nightclubs on Jan. 18 by himself. But it turned out that two of his LDP colleagues were with him the entire time.

They first went to an Italian restaurant and then later the nightclubs, despite that the government has been urging the public to avoid nonessential outings and asking businesses to close shop early to help contain the virus.

After media reports surfaced about Matsumoto going to the nightclubs, he resigned as acting chairman of the LDP Diet Affairs Committee.

One of the other lawmakers, Taido Tanose, was dismissed as senior vice minister of the education ministry, while the third member, Takashi Otsuka, resigned as a deputy chairman of the LDP Diet Affairs Committee.

Kiyohiko Toyama also resigned from his Lower House seat for visiting a separate nightclub. Toyama was a member of Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner.

Suga said at the plenary session that he dismissed Tanose the previous day because not only did he wine and dine until late at night despite the state of emergency, but he also concealed that fact.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Airfix

I'm not a doctor, I may well be wrong.
I'm just hoping that ultimately a less dangerous strain emerges.

It hasn't for polio, hiv, ebola, rabies, smallpox or dengue and they have been around for a long time.

[Captain_Swoop]

Boris says we should all be able to have our summer holidays and schools will be opening as soon as possible.

It's like he never learns.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Boris says we should all be able to have our summer holidays and schools will be opening as soon as possible.

It's like he never learns.

It's more like he simply doesn't care.

He wants and needs positive headlines to distract from utter incompetence of the government on so many fronts. Summer holidays and schools opening are the jangling keys to distract the infants.

He gets the positive headlines today - any possible negative consequences are in the future.

[GlennB]

More bollocks from Dido Harding*:

"Between that business plan being published and us going into the lockdown that we are in now, we’ve seen the virus mutate. We have seen the new variant emerge, which was something that none of us were able to predict." link

Immediately debunked by a commentator with a reference to an article published last March

*Silly to expect anything else, really.

[Airfix]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

It hasn't for polio, hiv, ebola, rabies, smallpox or dengue and they have been around for a long time.

I conceded that I am not a doctor and am speaking out of ignorance here I may well be wrong on this:
My consideration was based on the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 - 1920.
100m died, afterwards this hugely infectious viral strain disappeared.

Is it a fair assessment as a layman to state that it wiped itself out whilst less deadly strains of flu persisted ?

[Lothian]

Matt Handcock, (or another Tory cock) on R4 this morning said in a puff piece for Astrazenica they are 'producing the Oxford vaccine at cost......:

Of course they are, but they are selling it to the UK at $4 a shot and the EU at $2.15

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I don't think there's any evidence for the "less lethal strains" thing. There are still plenty people to infect even after you've killed rather a lot. Mutations are random. Selection pressure is the thing and mainly that's going to favour more infectious strains. Whether these are more or less lethal is going to be a matter of chance I think.

Coronaviruses are generally quite stable, as viruses go. The trouble is that too many goverenments lacked the political will to do what should have been done and thought they'd just try to ride it out, letting the virus multiply as much as it liked so long as the hospitals weren't completely overwhelmed. This has allowed so much viral multiplication that problematic mutations have been facilitated.

What's the chances of any of these lessons having been learned and staying learned for the next time anything like this happens? Not a lot, I suspect. We'll maybe see a few more New Zealands and Vietnams, but many countries will still have idiots in charge who capitulate to the "but we can't possibly lock down/close the borders/run an efficient contact tracing operation" lobbies.

Yeah it would seem that the virus only has to not kill its host so fast that they don't have time to spread it.

One odd thing for me is that while you have the NZ and Vietnams that completely locked down and showing benefits there are also places that don't seem to be very bothered at all like Brazil where the infection rates don't seem to be all that much different to here where we are being limited in what we do and still seem to be one of the worst places in the world for infections.

It's all a bit confusing really.