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Why did we turn Afghanistan over to the Taliban?

Jimbo07

Illuminator
Joined
Jan 20, 2006
Messages
4,518
This article states that The Taliban is taking territory in the wake of NATO's withdrawal. This isn't just a U.S. issue. Many of us on this board belong to NATO countries. I'm assuming we followed, just because the U.S. is the big gun, but why are they out?

Another article said that Biden feels a total takeover by the Taliban isn't inevitable. I assume our leaders have access to much better intelligence than that held by the public. The last president didn't seem to care about intelligence, but what intelligence does the current president have that I don't?

My assumption, living through my country's commitment over the years (even serving during the early years - I knew others, but didn't go myself), with no public info to the contrary, is that we ARE turning it over to the Taliban.

Somebody here please, please, PLEASE change my mind.
 
Biden and all the other politicians are idiots, This was another Viet Nam. If they had allowed our military to go in and do what needed to be done, we could have gotten out years ago and the Taliban would be no more.
 
Imagine setting up your pieces on a chess board correctly, then claiming victory because you’re on the board. Meanwhile, your opponent looks at you and the chessboard then says “That’s cute - you think we’re playing chess”.
 
Imagine setting up your pieces on a chess board correctly, then claiming victory because you’re on the board. Meanwhile, your opponent looks at you and the chessboard then says “That’s cute - you think we’re playing chess”.

If I get up from the table, do you promise to talk to my buddy instead of knocking over all the pieces? Pinky swear?
 
Biden and all the other politicians are idiots, This was another Viet Nam. If they had allowed our military to go in and do what needed to be done, we could have gotten out years ago and the Taliban would be no more.
Yes, because that worked so well for the Soviets and the British....
:rolleyes:
Military force achieves no long-term solution; that requires time, effort and an actual, workable, plan. All of which the USAian effort lacked.
 
What "needed to be done" by our military that we were not engaged in already?

I don't think we're going to like the outcome... but I am not at all sure we could get a better one by staying.
 
It isn’t practical for the forces of the US or nato allies to police the world
based on a time table of perpetuity. Especially when this troops are needed elsewhere. Much support has been offered to the afghan people’s. It is their battle to wage. We will still continue to support them.

I’m sure that US intelligence is coordinating with NATO allies and if a point of singularity is identified they will step in.
 
This article states that The Taliban is taking territory in the wake of NATO's withdrawal. This isn't just a U.S. issue. Many of us on this board belong to NATO countries. I'm assuming we followed, just because the U.S. is the big gun, but why are they out?

Another article said that Biden feels a total takeover by the Taliban isn't inevitable. I assume our leaders have access to much better intelligence than that held by the public. The last president didn't seem to care about intelligence, but what intelligence does the current president have that I don't?

My assumption, living through my country's commitment over the years (even serving during the early years - I knew others, but didn't go myself), with no public info to the contrary, is that we ARE turning it over to the Taliban.

Somebody here please, please, PLEASE change my mind.
Change my mind that we shouldn't turn it over to the Taliban, or to whatever other local faction is motivated to take it.

Change my mind that there are any other practical options that don't involve indefinite occupation and insurgency.

Change my mind that we have any standing to be there and decide who should have it anyway.

Like I said in the other thread:

Leave Afghanistan to the Afghanis. Whatever legitimate business the US military had there ended with severing of the Taliban-Bin Laden arrangement. Let Russia and Pakistan and Iran fight over it if they want.

Opium? Let it flow. America can't even manage drug traffic on its own borders. Poppy fields on the other side of the planet don't even matter. Sharia? As long as what happens in Taliban country stays in Taliban country, it's all good. America already plays nice with regimes that are just as bad.
 
Change my mind that we shouldn't turn it over to the Taliban, or to whatever other local faction is motivated to take it.

Change my mind that there are any other practical options that don't involve indefinite occupation and insurgency.

Right? Go back and re-argue the whole darned conflict! Why do it in the first place, if you're not committed to indefinite occupation?

Change my mind that we have any standing to be there and decide who should have it anyway.

Like I said in the other thread:

Which one? I've come to this late and my quick search has let me down. Edit: the Biden presidency one? I think its own thread in this forum is appropriate, no?
 
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Biden and all the other politicians are idiots, This was another Viet Nam. If they had allowed our military to go in and do what needed to be done, we could have gotten out years ago and the Taliban would be no more.

As Biden stated when making the withdrawal, the US was not in Afghanistan for a nation rebuilding effort.

The US was there to hunt terrorists, which they did. The US did not keep the Taliban designated as a terrorist organization as opposed to a government that supported or aided terrorists after a certain point; if they ever did designate it as a terrorist organization to begin with. The mission was to hunt terrorist cells indicated by intelligence and shoot the guys shooting at them. As such the Taliban wasn't generally part of the mission parameters to actively hunt down outside of direct insurgent activities.

This article states that The Taliban is taking territory in the wake of NATO's withdrawal. This isn't just a U.S. issue. Many of us on this board belong to NATO countries. I'm assuming we followed, just because the U.S. is the big gun, but why are they out?

Another article said that Biden feels a total takeover by the Taliban isn't inevitable. I assume our leaders have access to much better intelligence than that held by the public. The last president didn't seem to care about intelligence, but what intelligence does the current president have that I don't?

My assumption, living through my country's commitment over the years (even serving during the early years - I knew others, but didn't go myself), with no public info to the contrary, is that we ARE turning it over to the Taliban.

Somebody here please, please, PLEASE change my mind.

As far as NATO goes, they helped build a new government in Afghanistan out of the goodness of their hearts (for their pocketbooks; mostly US based) and if that Afghan body can't govern without them at this point it's not NATO's problem anymore. If that isn't enough, there is not a force large enough, well equipped enough, or has enough political will behind it to continue the Afghanistan campaign without major US troop involvement. There's also the problem of NATO forces piggy backing US logistics and bases for their operations, without a major increase in logistics and bases from NATO forces in general they really wouldn't have a significant foothold; NATO was welcome to join US Ops, but the US Ops were not NATO Ops and the US is taking it's toys (or at least most of them) when they go. Basically the rest of NATO only goes where the US does because member nations haven't maintained an expeditionary military force collectively large enough to handle a problem area as large as Afghanistan along with already existing obligations.

Biden's thinking RE:The Taliban seems to be based on the rebuilt Afghani government being able to hold their own against the resurging Taliban to some degree. They've had training, have experience alongside US and NATO forces, and have decent equipment; now it's just a matter of the Afghan people not supporting the Taliban and having the will to fight a civil war.

If the NATO aided Afghans fail without support then yes you could make the argument that NATO effectively ceded the country back to the Taliban, but I haven't seen anything saying NATO will no longer be aiding the Afghan government just that the boots on the ground are being recalled. I'd wager that the US on it's own is still going to be lobbing cruise missiles or having drone strikes into the area on the regular for quite a while after withdrawal anyway, at least if our behavior elsewhere in the region is any indication anywho.
 
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This article states that The Taliban is taking territory in the wake of NATO's withdrawal. This isn't just a U.S. issue. Many of us on this board belong to NATO countries. I'm assuming we followed, just because the U.S. is the big gun, but why are they out?

Another article said that Biden feels a total takeover by the Taliban isn't inevitable. I assume our leaders have access to much better intelligence than that held by the public. The last president didn't seem to care about intelligence, but what intelligence does the current president have that I don't?

My assumption, living through my country's commitment over the years (even serving during the early years - I knew others, but didn't go myself), with no public info to the contrary, is that we ARE turning it over to the Taliban.

Somebody here please, please, PLEASE change my mind.

I am generally a supporter of Biden, but IMHO his thinking that the Taliaban is not going to take over is pretty naive.
 
Biden and all the other politicians are idiots, This was another Viet Nam. If they had allowed our military to go in and do what needed to be done, we could have gotten out years ago and the Taliban would be no more.

Don't know much about the Vietnam war, do you?
We lost Vietnam because the Government we supported in the South was incredibly inept and corrupt,and no matter how much firepower we applied, nothing changed that.
Same situation in Afghanistan. Though I am afraid the Afghanistan being taken over by the Taliaban is going to have bad consquences for the US that the fall of Vietnam did not have.
 
I love this idea that the military was held back over the last 20 years. Each general that took over probably gave the same speech, only to be replaced with the same progress. We've trained over 300k troops. Spent trillions of dollars. If they can't hold their own territory, they don't want to.

I would have loved if Trump had enough focus to get us out during his term, and I am glad Biden is finally getting it done.
 
Yes, because that worked so well for the Soviets and the British....
:rolleyes:
Military force achieves no long-term solution; that requires time, effort and an actual, workable, plan. All of which the USAian effort lacked.

You know, that some of us think that using USAian instead of American is, frankly, a way ot showing contempt for the US.
 
I love this idea that the military was held back over the last 20 years. Each general that took over probably gave the same speech, only to be replaced with the same progress. We've trained over 300k troops. Spent trillions of dollars. If they can't hold their own territory, they don't want to.

I would have loved if Trump had enough focus to get us out during his term, and I am glad Biden is finally getting it done.

And if Afghanistan becomes a base of operation for ISIS, Al Qaida and the like?
I am not convinced that the Taliaban has really learned it's lesson here.
The struggle with Islamic Extremism is going to on for a long time. And it will be impossible for the US to walk away from it.
 
What "needed to be done" by our military that we were not engaged in already?

I don't think we're going to like the outcome... but I am not at all sure we could get a better one by staying.

I can see withdrawing from a direct combat role, not so sure about a total withdrawal.
 
Biden and all the other politicians are idiots, This was another Viet Nam. If they had allowed our military to go in and do what needed to be done, we could have gotten out years ago and the Taliban would be no more.

What needed to be done that wasn't done by the military?
 
And if Afghanistan becomes a base of operation for ISIS, Al Qaida and the like?
I am not convinced that the Taliaban has really learned it's lesson here.
The struggle with Islamic Extremism is going to on for a long time. And it will be impossible for the US to walk away from it.

Then them the breaks. We could spend another 10 years and the same issues will remain or be worse. There is no plan to 'win'. At this rate a war that started when I just became eligible for the army will still being going on when my kids reach enlistment age. And the same talking point of just a little more time will still be spouted by people that profit or have nothing at risk by continuing this fight. I'll take the risk of terrorist activity over that and a bunch of other policies that were implemented after 9/11. Time for things to start rolling back. Let's start here.
 
And if Afghanistan becomes a base of operation for ISIS, Al Qaida and the like?
I am not convinced that the Taliaban has really learned it's lesson here.
The struggle with Islamic Extremism is going to on for a long time. And it will be impossible for the US to walk away from it.

This.

You don't engage in nation-building out of the goodness of your heart. The idea is not to leave a failed state in your wake. If there was never a plan to make that a success, then NATO troops may have died for nothing. I say "may have," because there may also be some sort of meta strategy that I'm not privy to (ex. keep all of "those" people fighting amongst themselves and leave us alone).
 
Killing them.

Did we have a practice of holding back when we had an enemy target? You're speaking as if you have no idea why successfully occupying Afghanistan has stymied some of history's most powerful empires. It wasn't for lack of trying to kill the enemy.
 
And if Afghanistan becomes a base of operation for ISIS, Al Qaida and the like?
It already is. Who do you think keeps planting IEDs, attacking outposts, murdering police trainees, and all the rest of it?

I am not convinced that the Taliaban has really learned it's lesson here.
The problem is there was never any consistent or coherent lesson in mind to teach them. For a brief moment, early on, the lesson was going to be, "harboring international terrorists is counter-productive to your interests; stop it". Somehow, it transformed into, "as we have seen so many times before, you can outlast any foreign occupation, so stay strong and keep fighting."

The struggle with Islamic Extremism is going to on for a long time. And it will be impossible for the US to walk away from it.
Agreed, but half-assed occupation and "nation building" seems like maybe not the best long-term strategy.

Honestly? If the Afghanis want to have a little slapfight amongst themselves, about the merits of an islamofascist theocracy, they're welcome to it. As long as they understand that exporting that **** to the west means they get bombed in the face, I think it's probably fine.
 
Did we have a practice of holding back when we had an enemy target?
Yes, but the holding back even goes beyond that, to not even making targets of them in the first place. Our posture over there has been almost exclusively static and defensive for most of the time we've been there, holding & patrolling our areas but sticking to them and leaving the outside areas alone. It lacked the kind of offensive/aggressive missions in which you go out to where the enemy is and attack. The last time we did operate that way was soon after arrival, and it soon resulted in having them surrounded so they could all have been wiped out in hours with just a few bombing flights, but we didn't want to seem too mean, so we handed off the job to our local "allies", who let them out. No other serious moves against them have been tried since then, just marking time. Some people like to depict this as a failure to do more, but you can't "fail" at what you're simply not even trying.

You're speaking as if you have no idea why successfully occupying Afghanistan has stymied some of history's most powerful empires.
That's a myth.

Reliable records of what was happening there go back to the Persian empire in the early 600s BCE. Their Median and Achamenid dynasties held it until Alexander in the late 300s. He was at the farthest fringes of his reach, which is always the weakest part of any empire, but he didn't lose it; he died its ruler, and, despite his lack of interest in planning for what to do with it afterward, his successors held it as a Greek kingdom (Seleucid & Bactrian) for well over 400 years. They finally got knocked loose not by the local natives but by other invaders, the Yuezhi, who ruled it for about 250 years until the Persians took it back for over another 400 years until the Arabian caliphates took over and ruled for at least a couple of centuries before it starts getting slightly more complicated over the following few centuries.

Starting in 819 CE, after almost 1500 years of recorded history without a single day of independence from foreign empires (or a single empire holding it for less than about 250 years before another empire takes it), we finally start seeing the dominant foreign empire of the time, the Abbasid caliphate, getting pushed back from at least part of Afghanistan, both by locals and by other invaders. Afghanistan's own homemade Samanid and Saffarid dynasties (cousins of the Persians but this time at least not from Persia) managed to keep Kabul and neighboring eastern parts of the land until 1003 while occasionally gaining & losing other chunks of land back & forth against the Arabs and a couple of Turkic tribes (the Ghaznavid and Khwarazmian dynasties). Once the local upstarts were put back down out of the picture again, the Arabs and Turkic tribes kept going back & forth until the mid-1200s, when they both got driven out, not by the people of Afghanistan, but by, once again, yet another successful invading empire, the Mongols.

Khan's successors weren't his own descendants for long because the Mongolian power structure was prone to internal turnover, but his military and political successors kept the military & political entity going under other names like "Timurid empire" without losing Afghanistan or most other nearby territory until well into the 1500s. And who was it that finally chipped enough away at them to get down to the last chip in Afghanistan... oh, look, it's the Persians again, this time under the name "Safavid"... another foreign rulership over Afghanistan that lasted well over another 250 years. (The Safavid dynasty ended in 1736 but that was an internal succession with no gain or loss of territory; the usurping Afsharid dynasty of Persia would rule another 60 years after that.) Toward the end of Safavid rule, some territory in Afghanistan was won from them by Pashtuns of the Hotak dynasty, but they only held on for 29 years before Afsharid Persia took it back.

Independence from foreign empires doesn't really begin until the military career of an Afghan named Ahmad Shah Durrani (1722-1772). Afghanistan & Pakistan were on the edges of a few different empires in different directions (Afsharid Iran in the west, a couple of Indian ones in the east & south, and a Mongol-Turkic one in the north), which happened to be weakening and ready to shrink back at about the same time, instead of one weakening & shrinking while another strengthens & expands. This created an opportunity for the border provinces, and Durrani took that opportunity, taking over Afshanistan, Pakistan, and parts of some neighboring countries, especially eastern Iran. The government has changed forms since then and lost some territory (most notably Pakistan and an almost Afghanistan-sized chunk of Iran), but has been the first and only relatively stable continuous entity to rule Afghanistan from the inside instead of the outside since then.

Prior to Durrani, there's not one single instance of Afghanistan ever keeping an invader out, completely throwing a conqueror out, or even managing to temporarily take back bits & pieces from a conqueror in less than about 200 years, nevermind putting an invader in a "grave". It's simply spent almost its whole history as a perpetual province of one outside empire after another, typically for hundreds of years at a time, with each one's time ending not when the people of Afghanistan did something to end it, but when the next one came through. The pattern didn't end until those outside empires happened to fade at about the same time anyway without another new one developing to be the next in line.

Next you might think "OK, but what about since then?" After all, of the main three examples the purveyors of this myth most often use, two were pretty recent on that scale. (The third is rather bizarrely Alexander, who can only be said to have been defeated by Afghanistan if you count the country's germs as defenders of the country, but we'll just ignore that for now.) There were some other conflicts for Afghanistan, such as against the Sikhs, but nobody ever called them a major world power. That leaves us with the British Empire and the USSR.

The Brits meddled in Afghanistan three times: 1839-1842, 1878-1880, and 1919. Even by the earliest of these dates, they were already stretched thin around the world and deciding which places were and weren't worth the trouble. It was 56 years since they'd quit the American war for independence, which is widely regarded as not a defeat so much as an "Eh, why bother", because, although they were significantly more powerful, they had significantly more other lands to deal with too. Their only way to Afghanistan was through India/Pakistan, where they did have a military presence, but just enough to keep them in line and paying taxes, while leaving most of the administrative/ruling work to the locals. Their biggest military priority was to keep the home islands safe during Europe's era of back-&-forth wars that kept happening at the time. And their two 19th-century excursions into Afghanistan lasted less than 3 years apiece and the last one didn't even last a year. Considering all of this together, this does not look like defeat; it looks like another "Eh, why bother".

That leaves the USSR. Even granting this one, 1 isn't much of a historical pattern; it's the lone exception at most, if it's even that. And that's without considering the help Afghanistan got from the USA at the time, or how much effort the USSR really put into it, or the fact that the more we've learned about Russia & the USSR since then the more of a paper tiger they look like for other reasons.

I'll leave it to others, or to another later post of mine, to ponder why a myth so far out of line with reality is nevertheless as accepted as it is here & now...
 
Back to the original subject:

My assumption... with no public info to the contrary, is that we ARE turning it over to the Taliban.

Somebody here please, please, PLEASE change my mind.
Yes, we are.

...just like we leave plenty of other evil countries alone to run themselves in their own evil ways. The only difference between this one and them is that we're already in this one. If we weren't, people wouldn't call for an invasion of this one any more than they're calling for invasions of any of the others.
 
Building a country is hard.

Building a country with a 'your culture is wrong' is a lot harder

Building a country while also letting corrupt and inept leaders govern it and using companies selected on their ability to grease palms with US and NATO politicians is even harder

Building a country that is only accessible trough the air and bordered by 4 nations that each would like to see you fail for different reasons is even harder than that.

Especially if your attitude when going in is the Hollywood mentality of go in, shoot the bad guys, everyone is happy afterwards and there is no collateral damage.
 
This article states that The Taliban is taking territory in the wake of NATO's withdrawal. This isn't just a U.S. issue. Many of us on this board belong to NATO countries. I'm assuming we followed, just because the U.S. is the big gun, but why are they out?

Another article said that Biden feels a total takeover by the Taliban isn't inevitable. I assume our leaders have access to much better intelligence than that held by the public. The last president didn't seem to care about intelligence, but what intelligence does the current president have that I don't?

My assumption, living through my country's commitment over the years (even serving during the early years - I knew others, but didn't go myself), with no public info to the contrary, is that we ARE turning it over to the Taliban.

Somebody here please, please, PLEASE change my mind.

The Taliban are principally a Pashtun political / religious movement. They are unlikely to have significant control outside of their native area. In many areas control will remain with local warlords / tribal chiefs who may have an accommodation with the Taliban. It was no more possible to destroy the taliban than it would be to destroy Marxism or Islam. It is a relatively grass roots movement. To eradicate it would have required a similar approach to that taken by the Chinese against their Islamist ethnic groups. Mass re-education camps, eradicating Pashtun culture and language, suppressing religious education, and worship.

Anyway the Taliban will be anti-Iranian, so the anti-iranian faction in the US intelligence services may see some benefit.
 
The Taliban are principally a Pashtun political / religious movement. They are unlikely to have significant control outside of their native area. In many areas control will remain with local warlords / tribal chiefs who may have an accommodation with the Taliban. It was no more possible to destroy the taliban than it would be to destroy Marxism or Islam. It is a relatively grass roots movement. To eradicate it would have required a similar approach to that taken by the Chinese against their Islamist ethnic groups. Mass re-education camps, eradicating Pashtun culture and language, suppressing religious education, and worship.

Anyway the Taliban will be anti-Iranian, so the anti-iranian faction in the US intelligence services may see some benefit.

I agree with you.
 
If "we" had wanted to change Afghanistan we could have done so but it would have been by economic means not militarily. It would still have been a huge struggle with a poor likelihood of success but it was feasible.

Amongst the policies to adopt would have been ones I think the USA would have had great domestic difficulty with getting passed as it would have involved us paying much more to farmers for their opium crops than what they could get from the market, and paying a huge amount above the odds for staple non-drug crops and then put the non-drug crops back into the Afghan market at a pittance.

Money talks.
 
It's a strange view. USA'ian seems more accurate to me.

Anyone know how popular the Taliban actually are in Afghanistan?

Planigale gives a good summary of what the Taliban is, it is not a political party/government in the same way as we see in our countries.
 
What needed to be done that wasn't done by the military?
We did not have a free hand to do what we wanted. For example when you see someone planting a bomb on the side of the road for example, we should not have to ask for permission to take them out. or when you know where the enemy is but told you can't engage them because there MIGHT BE innocent civilians in te area.
 
We did not have a free hand to do what we wanted. For example when you see someone planting a bomb on the side of the road for example, we should not have to ask for permission to take them out. or when you know where the enemy is but told you can't engage them because there MIGHT BE innocent civilians in te area.

Yeah, not killing civilians is such a librul thing to do! Stupid rules of engagement. They should've gone in there like Christians when they took Jerusalem. Right?
 
We did not have a free hand to do what we wanted. For example when you see someone planting a bomb on the side of the road for example, we should not have to ask for permission to take them out. or when you know where the enemy is but told you can't engage them because there MIGHT BE innocent civilians in te area.
Ah yes, killing random people because they might be up to no-good (and that's what this "policy" would become) a great way to make friends and influence people.
:rolleyes:
 
We did not have a free hand to do what we wanted. For example when you see someone planting a bomb on the side of the road for example, we should not have to ask for permission to take them out. or when you know where the enemy is but told you can't engage them because there MIGHT BE innocent civilians in te area.

Yeah, not killing civilians is such a librul thing to do! Stupid rules of engagement. They should've gone in there like Christians when they took Jerusalem. Right?

Ah yes, killing random people because they might be up to no-good (and that's what this "policy" would become) a great way to make friends and influence people.
:rolleyes:

I suppose these posts highlight a fundamental difference in approach to guerrilla warfare.

One approach is to approach any threat with overwhelming firepower and to kill anyone who might be a threat with little or no consideration for the consequences for innocent bystanders. Of course, it could be considered that anyone who isn't offering up the enemy isn't innocent and is part of the problem rather than the solution and is hence a legitimate target.

Another approach is to attempt to win over the enemy with a "hearts and minds" approach.

I've said it repeatedly that conservatives seem to prefer action over procrastination and prefer a simple solution to a complicated one. "Hearts and Minds" is complicated, fraught with difficulty and not guaranteed to be a success. Killing people guarantees that those people are dead. Once everyone is dead then there are no more enemies I guess. :confused:
 
Snip...

That's a myth.

Snip...

I'll leave it to others, or to another later post of mine, to ponder why a myth so far out of line with reality is nevertheless as accepted as it is here & now...

I found that really interesting - thank you.
 

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