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Tags nato , Russia-Finland relations , Russia-Sweden relations , Russia-Ukraine war , vladimir putin

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Old 25th February 2022, 06:04 PM   #1
Hercules56
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Russia threatens Finland & Sweden/ they may join within months

So, Russia has now decided to threaten Sweden and Finland with military action if they dare to pursue NATO membership.

Seriously Putin?? Are you this nuts?

Maybe countries wouldn't be so keen on joining NATO if Russia wasn't threatening everyone.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia...nd-sweden-nato
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Old 25th February 2022, 06:13 PM   #2
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"Don't join NATO, or we will attack you!"

"Why don't you want us to join NATO?"

"We might want to attack you at some point, and that will be more difficult if you join NATO."
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Old 25th February 2022, 06:26 PM   #3
Hercules56
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Nobody would join NATO if they were not afraid that someday Russia may try to kill them. Its that simple.

In one stroke Putin has shown the world the incredible value of NATO and being a NATO member. Nobody will ever question the value of NATO membership again.
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Old 25th February 2022, 07:44 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Nobody would join NATO if they were not afraid that someday Russia may try to kill them. Its that simple.

In one stroke Putin has shown the world the incredible value of NATO and being a NATO member. Nobody will ever question the value of NATO membership again.
Besides our previous president, who wanted to pull completely out of NATO but couldn't.
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Old 25th February 2022, 09:46 PM   #5
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FInland just signed a deal for a number of US F35 fighters.
And FInland is quite good at giving Russia bloody nose; see Winter War 1939-40.
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Old 25th February 2022, 09:47 PM   #6
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I suspect Nato or no Nato membership, if Putin makes serious noises about Finland, You will se US and Nato troops there.
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Old 25th February 2022, 10:20 PM   #7
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Well, here in Finland we see ourselves as quite a logical next step after Ukraine if Moscow really is as deranged as it seems. But to our size we are pretty well armed, among others the largest artillery in Western Europe, reserves for up to half million trained soldiers and quite sophisticated tactis (designed only one opponent in mind - hint, not Sweden).

This article is 10 years old and we have quietly being getting stronger ever since - still, better air defence would be needed and experts think that we would need Nato assistance after 2-3 months of attack. But no cake walk into these deep forests.

https://www.politico.eu/article/finl...urity-muscles/

edit: On the other hand, Sweden basically dismantled their land forces after the Cold War - I think they are relying on ours which is a time honoured tradition there...

Last edited by llwyd; 25th February 2022 at 10:43 PM.
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Old 25th February 2022, 10:45 PM   #8
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But where are the Putin apologists to tell us that he did not really threaten them and that it is their own fault that Putin is talking about them while not threatening them?
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Old 26th February 2022, 07:39 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by llwyd View Post
Well, here in Finland we see ourselves as quite a logical next step after Ukraine if Moscow really is as deranged as it seems. But to our size we are pretty well armed, among others the largest artillery in Western Europe, reserves for up to half million trained soldiers and quite sophisticated tactis (designed only one opponent in mind - hint, not Sweden).

This article is 10 years old and we have quietly being getting stronger ever since - still, better air defence would be needed and experts think that we would need Nato assistance after 2-3 months of attack. But no cake walk into these deep forests.

https://www.politico.eu/article/finl...urity-muscles/

edit: On the other hand, Sweden basically dismantled their land forces after the Cold War - I think they are relying on ours which is a time honoured tradition there...
Sanna Marin, Warrior Woman.
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Old 26th February 2022, 09:48 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
But where are the Putin apologists to tell us that he did not really threaten them and that it is their own fault that Putin is talking about them while not threatening them?
Remember - when the man beats up his ex-wife because she threatened to call the cops on him for the last time he threatened beat her up, then it is the cops fault. He had no choice, they made him do it.
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Old 26th February 2022, 09:52 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Sanna Marin, Warrior Woman.
Sanna Marin, one of the foot-draggers who keeps us from applying for NATO membership.
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Old 26th February 2022, 09:54 AM   #12
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According to a professor at Turku University, Louis Clerc, it is a mistake to call Putin 'crazy'. In his view, Putin is coldly and rationally following a plan he has had since the 1990's.

Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not crazy, says Louis Clerc , a professor of political history at the University of Turku. He believes that such speech and attitude should be abandoned.

“This isn’t any James Bond movie where the bad guy rubs the white cat and thinks perverted,” Clerc says.

- Putin has a clear and determined idea and a political project to which he has been determined for about fifteen years.

According to Clerc, Putin's goals are rooted in his mistreatment of Russia in the 1990s, which in a way ended Putin's sphere of influence and weakened Russia. Throughout the 21st century, Putin has sought to remedy this situation.
<snip>

Quote:
According to Clerc, since 2008 the direction of Russia has been the same all the time and the means are constantly getting harder and harder.

The big question is in which direction Russia and Putin are going next.

- Is it conceivable that the next target would be the Baltic countries, for example. Clerc is wondering if he is trying to rebuild Russia's sphere of influence so that Poland, possibly Romania and then Finland, are also targeted.

However, Clerc emphasizes that Russia's attack on NATO or EU countries is really unlikely. According to him, the most likely is the rapid collapse of Ukraine and the gradual return to "normal."
It could be said, of course, that people tend to become 'fans' of the subject they are studying. OTOH as a professor of political history, he likely knows better than most as to what may happen next.

Quote:
- But it is good to start thinking about these questions, in which direction Putin's activities are going and what Finland is doing, Clerc says.

Russia has long deliberately irritated the surrounding states, for example with state border violations. With the onset of the Crimean conflict, airspace violations by Russian military aircraft against the Finnish state increased.

In 2018, the Airiston Helmi in the Turku archipelago made headlines when the police searched there.

According to Clerc, it is clear that the Airiston Pearl is related to what Russia is currently doing to Ukraine.

- Russia has played this kind of play in the border areas. It ruthlessly seeks its own interests and positions, complicating matters for other states, Clerc says.

Although the states tolerate a reasonable degree of espionage from each other, the actions of Russian or Russian parties at Airisto went beyond the tolerance of the Finnish state.

- Very little information has been leaked to the public. But apparently the Russians were looking for land in strategic places in the archipelago from which it would be possible to make shipping more difficult during a crisis or war, Clerc says.
TS


Airiston Helmi relates to a Russian-owned company in the archipelago being investigated since September 2018 for money laundering and gross tax evasion after €3m in cash was found there from a cargo haul.

Quote:
The international line is investigating aggravated money laundering. Police suspect that the proceeds of crime have been hidden in the company. Police have a clear idea of ​​what activities have been carried out internationally and where the predicate offense would have taken place.

Police requested additional time for the investigation and the retention of seizures to secure the continuation of the money laundering investigation.

The company sells its islands and properties. Melnikov intends to sell all its properties in Finland.
YLE
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Old 26th February 2022, 10:09 AM   #13
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Putin's threats are counterproductive, if he aims to prevent Finland from joining NATO. With the recent Russian military aggression, Finns are becoming more supportive of the idea of joining NATO. Add to that threats against us, and those numbers are likely to only go up.

Someone needs to explain to Putin how human psychology works. The most likely response to threats isn't immediate acquiescence, but the rather, the circling of wagons, and increased distrust of the party doing the threatening.

If Russia shows itself to be truly open to military adventures in Finland, then the most rational thing for Finland to do is to join a larger defensive organization, to deter such ideas.

So if Putin wants to prevent the expansion of Nato towards the East, he is going about it in the exact wrong way.
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Old 26th February 2022, 10:22 AM   #14
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Old 26th February 2022, 10:24 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by llwyd View Post
Well, here in Finland we see ourselves as quite a logical next step after Ukraine if Moscow really is as deranged as it seems. But to our size we are pretty well armed, among others the largest artillery in Western Europe, reserves for up to half million trained soldiers and quite sophisticated tactis (designed only one opponent in mind - hint, not Sweden).

This article is 10 years old and we have quietly being getting stronger ever since - still, better air defence would be needed and experts think that we would need Nato assistance after 2-3 months of attack. But no cake walk into these deep forests.

https://www.politico.eu/article/finl...urity-muscles/

edit: On the other hand, Sweden basically dismantled their land forces after the Cold War - I think they are relying on ours which is a time honoured tradition there...
Yes, unlike the Ukraine, the Russians wouldn't have an approach from five directions, there is just the 1,000 kilometre land border comprised of dense forest. I was in East Finland the other summer and visited all the trenches from the 1940's which are still there. It would be so ironic, if they came to be needed for use.

North, of course, is sealed off by Norway.
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Old 26th February 2022, 10:25 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
According to a professor at Turku University, Louis Clerc, it is a mistake to call Putin 'crazy'. In his view, Putin is coldly and rationally following a plan he has had since the 1990's.
I don't doubt he's following a plan he's had since the 90s. I think that much is obvious. And I'm pretty sure there is a cold and rational way to follow that plan. But whatever the cold and rational implementation is, I think it's also pretty obvious this ain't it.
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Old 26th February 2022, 10:38 AM   #17
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FInland and Sweden just denied a Russian Diplomatic plane aceess to their airspace.
Sort of a response to the Russian theart of yesterday.
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Old 26th February 2022, 11:27 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
FInland just signed a deal for a number of US F35 fighters.
And FInland is quite good at giving Russia bloody nose; see Winter War 1939-40.
Ok, and Mongolia used to kick some ass under Genghis Khan, and in the 18th century, the United States wasn't a Superpower. Times change, and fast.

Re: OP: rut roh. Will need a new thread with a scarier title if this keeps up. Putin on the Blitz, perhaps?
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Old 26th February 2022, 01:08 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Swordfishtrombone View Post
Putin's threats are counterproductive, if he aims to prevent Finland from joining NATO. With the recent Russian military aggression, Finns are becoming more supportive of the idea of joining NATO. Add to that threats against us, and those numbers are likely to only go up.

Someone needs to explain to Putin how human psychology works. The most likely response to threats isn't immediate acquiescence, but the rather, the circling of wagons, and increased distrust of the party doing the threatening.

If Russia shows itself to be truly open to military adventures in Finland, then the most rational thing for Finland to do is to join a larger defensive organization, to deter such ideas.

So if Putin wants to prevent the expansion of Nato towards the East, he is going about it in the exact wrong way.
One must ask why Sweden and Finland hate Russia so much? Are they Nazis?

Yeah, that's it, they must be Nazis!!!!
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Old 26th February 2022, 01:16 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
One must ask why Sweden and Finland hate Russia so much? Are they Nazis?

Yeah, that's it, they must be Nazis!!!!
I don't know about the Swedes, but we are drug addicts too!
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Old 26th February 2022, 04:00 PM   #21
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On the showing over the last few days I think any threats from Putin can be treated with contempt.
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Old 26th February 2022, 05:50 PM   #22
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On the other hand, if in the next few days Putin resorts to nukes, Sweden and Finland may decide to take the threats a little more seriously.
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Old 26th February 2022, 07:18 PM   #23
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Time to get the skis and the rifles out.
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Old 26th February 2022, 07:30 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
On the other hand, if in the next few days Putin resorts to nukes, Sweden and Finland may decide to take the threats a little more seriously.
Nobody's resorting to nukes. He's an idiot, but not that dumb.
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Old 26th February 2022, 08:25 PM   #25
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Heard someone point out that there are thousands of Russian troops in Finland already. Mostly about 6 feet below ground in some forests.
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Old 26th February 2022, 09:00 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Nobody's resorting to nukes. He's an idiot, but not that dumb.
That is assuming Putin is sane. A very big assumption IMHO.
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Old 26th February 2022, 09:06 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That is assuming Putin is sane. A very big assumption IMHO.
As Vladimir Putin's personal psychotherapist, I can say definitively that's probably not true. Shouldn't be breaking patient-doctor confidentiality, but no one really comes to this forum anymore.

Yes, he did walk in and slump down on the LazyBoy, and I asked him what what was on his mind why the sullen demeanor? He told me "Been kind of stressed at work. Have a project that's not going according to plan, but I think it will be okay. I don't know. It should be."

Then I asked about what's going at home which he didn't want to address. Understanding the precariousness, I gently pushed about his family and if they're safe. Nothing.

So I just let him keep talking about what he wanted to talk about, which was something about how great his country once was. As my duty as a trained medical officer, I gave him a shot of Eukodal, and he seemed to settle down. Then he wandered off with a spright in his step.

So yeah, professional opinion, sane.
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Old 27th February 2022, 01:31 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
I don't know about the Swedes, but we are drug addicts too!
Actually from a few Finnish friends of mine, I understand that caffeine in the form of Coffee is the Finnish drug of choice.
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Old 27th February 2022, 01:44 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Actually from a few Finnish friends of mine, I understand that caffeine in the form of Coffee is the Finnish drug of choice.
The older generation also likes their vodka The younger people are more European style in their beverages...

But this conflict has really struck a chord here - the Winter War is basically our foundational myth: we were supposed to collapse like a house of cards when alone confronting the Red Army. Most small nations did in WW2 against big powers. In Europe there were only three capitals of the war participants that were never occupied: London, Moscow - and Helsinki.

I foresee quite a seachange in our cautious foreign and security policy: support for Nato membership will likely explode. (It has been quite low till now ca 20-30%.)
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Old 27th February 2022, 02:47 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Heard someone point out that there are thousands of Russian troops in Finland already. Mostly about 6 feet below ground in some forests.
You heard wrong. They are all buried outside the border.
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Old 27th February 2022, 03:17 AM   #31
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History seems to show that whilst Russia/USSR always had the sheer numbers, they would just pile in the soldiers as they had hundreds of thousands more right behind, and the rulers never cared about the Russian people anyway. In the Winter War, many many Russians died simply because they didn't even have proper winter clothing. You could say that history tells us that the Russians are like the hare and the Finns/Swedes like the tortoise. Brawn versus brain. With the Russian population today at 180m, the Finnish one at 5.6m and Sweden at 10m, you can see that Sweden and Finland have had to be ten times cleverer and more strategically-minded.

As an example, here are the list of wars between Sweden/Finland (then known as the Swedish Empire, and which included for the greater part current day Estonia and Latvia as 'Livonia'):

Quote:
War Notes
Swedish–Novgorodian Wars A series of conflicts between the 12th and 14th centuries.
Russo-Swedish War (1495–97) Result of an alliance between Ivan III of Russia and Hans of Denmark.
Russo-Swedish War (1554–57) Prelude to the Livonian War.
Livonian War (1558–82) Fought for control of Old Livonia in the territory of present-day Estonia and Latvia.
Russo-Swedish War (1590–95) Instigated by Boris Godunov in the hope of gaining the territory of the Duchy of Estonia.
De la Gardie Campaign (1609-1610) A military campaign to put Vasili IV on the Russian throne. Part of the Polish–Muscovite War (1605–18). The campaign can be considered a prelude to the Ingrian War.
Ingrian War (1610-17) Including an attempt to put a Swedish duke on the Russian throne.
Russo-Swedish War (1656–58) Part of the Second Northern War.
Great Northern War (1700–21) Conflict in which a coalition led by the Tsardom of Russia successfully contested the supremacy of the Swedish Empire in northern Central Europe and Eastern Europe.
Russo-Swedish War (1741–43) Also known as the Hats' Russian War.
Russo-Swedish War (1788–90) Also known as Gustav III's Russian War in Sweden, and Catherine II's Swedish War in Russia.
Finnish War (1808–1809) Resulted in the eastern third of Sweden being established as the autonomous Grand Duchy of Finland within the Russian control.
wiki


Thus you can see, there is a centuries' old history of Sweden/Finland at war with Russia.


Pictured is a photo I took of a war memorial to the Battle of Laitaatsilla (Laitaat Bridge) near Laitaatsalmi, west of Savonlinna (East Finland) commemorating a fight between the Russians and the Swedish Empire Northern Regiment, Savo brigade combined with the Pori Regiment (from SW Finland) in 1789. This was typical of the many many battles and skirmishes between the two sides.

Quote:
The Battle of Laitaatsilla was one of the battles of Gustav III's war between Russia and Sweden . It was held in Savonlinna on October 7, 1789.

At the Battle of Parkumäki in Rantasalmi on July 21, 1789, the Russian troops retreated to Laitaatsalmi , west of Savonlinna . The Russians grouped in positions on the eastern shore of the strait. Swedish troops followed suit and remained stationed on the West Bank of the Strait.

On October 7, 1789, the Russians carried out a surprise attack and landed in northern Haapavesi . They managed to take over the Finnish artillery battery that was there. Initially, the Swedish-Finnish forces had to retreat, but after receiving auxiliary forces, they counterattacked and forced the Russians to retreat east of the strait in fierce melee.

Russia's losses in the battle were about 200 men. The losses of the Swedish-Finns were 14 crashed and 33 wounded. In addition, three were taken prisoner.
wiki

So, yeah, the two empires have been fighting since time immemorial.
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Old 27th February 2022, 03:30 AM   #32
llwyd
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
You heard wrong. They are all buried outside the border.
Yeah, most are in the annexed territories - or should one say in illegally occupied parts of Finland in genuine Putin fashion But plenty around for example in Suomussalmi and Ilomantsi and various other places:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Suomussalmi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilomantsi
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Old 27th February 2022, 04:11 AM   #33
Vixen
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Originally Posted by llwyd View Post
Yeah, most are in the annexed territories - or should one say in illegally occupied parts of Finland in genuine Putin fashion But plenty around for example in Suomussalmi and Ilomantsi and various other places:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Suomussalmi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilomantsi

Not the same situation at all. The Karelians were Finnic-language speaking peoples. Russia/USSR never cared about Karelians. It expelled 400K Karelians from their homes, and I have close family friends who had to leave everything behind and reintegrate elsewhere. What did Russia want with Karelia: nothing! It is now a barren wasteland. People who have gone back to see their old homes have found nothing but a pile of stones and dismay.

See here what Russia has done to the beautiful old town of Vyborg (Viipuri). Once an amazing example of architecture, now just a crumbling ********.

https://qr.ae/pGQdMs

As a measure of how much Russia care about it, Brezhnev actually offered Karelia to former President Kekkonen in 1968!

https://yle.fi/news/3-5802145
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Old 27th February 2022, 07:17 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Nobody's resorting to nukes. He's an idiot, but not that dumb.
That's why he ordered high alertness to nuke forces.
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Old 27th February 2022, 03:37 PM   #35
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Thing is, we thought he was 'only going to Donetsk and Luhansk' but then he invaded the entire country. This is what worries me about the nuclear threat. He is not the type of person to say things lightly. Anyway, Sweden did not take it well.

Quote:
Sweden will send, among other things, 5,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine to help it defend against Russian aggression.
"Sweden is now proposing direct support for Ukraine's armed forces,” Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Sunday, Reuters informs.

The support includes 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields and 5,000 anti-tank weapons.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...o-ukraine.html

Plus they and Poland will refuse to play Russia at football.

Finland could only offer:

Quote:
Finland will send to Ukraine 2,000 bulletproof vests, 2,000 composite helmets, 100 stretchers as well as equipment for two emergency medical care stations.

The Government also granted Estonia a licence to re-export to Ukraine artillery guns and their ammunition, which Estonia had previously purchased from Finland.

Finland supports the initiative of the EU High Representative to use the European Peace Facility to assist Ukraine also in the form of military materials.

In addition, Finland will send humanitarian material assistance to Ukraine through the EU’s Civil Protection Mechanism in the next few days. The assistance includes tents and medical protective equipment. Finland will collect and provide more material to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The Ministry of the Interior is the authority responsible for the assistance and it will be coordinated by Europe’s Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), which received Ukraine’s request. Several EU Member States have responded to the request.

Finland decided already on 17 and 24 February to grant Ukraine a total of EUR 14 million in new financial support. Of this, EUR 8.2 million is humanitarian assistance and EUR 5.8 million is development cooperation funding. In total, Finland’s support to Ukraine for 2014–2022 will be approximately EUR 85 million.
Valtioneuvosto

I am guessing that Finland has had to be a lot more cautious due to them-next-door, as per usual. Always having to tread on eggshells.
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Old 27th February 2022, 04:00 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
That's why he ordered high alertness to nuke forces.
Bla bla bla, just useless posturing. Putin knows using nukes means the destruction of Russia and all its little Ruskies.
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Old 27th February 2022, 04:18 PM   #37
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Just saw the footage of Russian police clubbing demonstrators in the streets. It's like something out of Dr. Zhivago.
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Old 27th February 2022, 04:28 PM   #38
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There is already a run on the banks in Russia, with long queues for the ATM machines, although there is a limit on how much can be drawn out at a time. How long before there is unrest?

I heard that Ukraine has asked the Red Cross to help remove the bodies of the dead Russian soldiers so that their relatives can claim them. That is compassion.

Here in Finland, newspapers are reporting that chemists and online pharmacies have sold out of Jodi tablets. (Although, they never held large stocks of this anyway.) Apparently, these are high-dose iodine tablets which are an antidote to...high radiation levels.

Some people seem to be worried about the Chernobyl disturbance and maybe the use of nuclear weapons, which has suddenly become real.
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Old 27th February 2022, 04:40 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Bla bla bla, just useless posturing. Putin knows using nukes means the destruction of Russia and all its little Ruskies.
There's an argument to be had that Russia could speculate the West would not retaliate to a low-scale tactical use of nukes with a large-scale nuclear second strike, as Russia will likely retain a third-strike capacity, given its large land area and submarines. Both wiping out Russian targets and losing Western cities would be unpopular with Westerm populations, no government would be able to stay after such a development.
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Old 27th February 2022, 05:56 PM   #40
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"The Ukrainians are strong students of the English language. After Russian FM Lavrov said ceasefire talks can begin after Russia “restores democratic order” in Ukraine, MP Oleksiy Goncharenko responded."

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/sta...36917647360000
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