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Tags nato , Russia-Finland relations , Russia-Sweden relations , Russia-Ukraine war , vladimir putin

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Old 17th May 2022, 10:58 AM   #361
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Turkey and Hungary have already stated that they would veto this nonsense. So has Croatia. So no need to worry, just some more noise.
I know I'm gonna regret this but...if a country actually wants to join NATO, and in fact votes overwhelmingly in favor of it, why shouldn't their wishes be respected? After all, it isn't like anyone invaded them and is trying to force something on them against their will through military action. Why should their desires be dismissed as "nonsense" and "noise"?
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:04 AM   #362
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
I know I'm gonna regret this but...if a country actually wants to join NATO, and in fact votes overwhelmingly in favor of it, why shouldn't their wishes be respected? After all, it isn't like anyone invaded them and is trying to force something on them against their will through military action. Why should their desires be dismissed as "nonsense" and "noise"?

Because these are the rules. I didn't make them, as far as I'm concerned each day NATO exists is a day too long, and there have been many of it on which it was too long. The rules say even if only a rather tiny country (military-wise) like Croatia or Hungary disagrees, it won't happen. Of course Turkey is a whole different game and I would applaud Erdogan tomorrow if he kills NATO.
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:05 AM   #363
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
I know I'm gonna regret this but...if a country actually wants to join NATO, and in fact votes overwhelmingly in favor of it, why shouldn't their wishes be respected? After all, it isn't like anyone invaded them and is trying to force something on them against their will through military action. Why should their desires be dismissed as "nonsense" and "noise"?
Because anything Vladimir Putin wants is definitively good, and anything Vladimir Putin doesn't want is definitively bad?

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Old 17th May 2022, 11:17 AM   #364
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I suppose 'killing' NATO will make it easier for Vlad to take back the old Soviet republics.
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:21 AM   #365
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Because these are the rules. I didn't make them, as far as I'm concerned each day NATO exists is a day too long, and there have been many of it on which it was too long. The rules say even if only a rather tiny country (military-wise) like Croatia or Hungary disagrees, it won't happen. Of course Turkey is a whole different game and I would applaud Erdogan tomorrow if he kills NATO.
I understand how NATO works, so that wasn't quite what I was asking. Instead, I was wondering why you so blithely dismissed the wishes of a nation, acting in near-unanimity, as "nonsense" and "noise"?
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:21 AM   #366
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Because anything Vladimir Putin wants is definitively good, and anything Vladimir Putin doesn't want is definitively bad?

Dave
Hey, no spoilers!
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:31 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
I understand how NATO works, so that wasn't quite what I was asking. Instead, I was wondering why you so blithely dismissed the wishes of a nation, acting in near-unanimity, as "nonsense" and "noise"?

They can wish what they want (looking at the leaderess I suspect their political system is as compromised as most of ours'), but they wont get it.
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:37 AM   #368
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
They can wish what they want (looking at the leaderess I suspect their political system is as compromised as most of ours'), but they wont get it.
That may be, but for the third time: why did you dismiss the overwhelming desire of a nation to choose its own course as "nonsense" and "noise"?
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:45 AM   #369
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
That may be, but for the third time: why did you dismiss the overwhelming desire of a nation to choose its own course as "nonsense" and "noise"?

"Nonsense" is their idea that they will be allowed into NATO, "noise" is why we are talking about it - NATO media spamming it everywhere.

Got it now?
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Old 17th May 2022, 11:52 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
"Nonsense" is their idea that they will be allowed into NATO
They will be allowed into NATO. Turkey wants to use its leverage to get some concessions first. If Finland and Sweden don't get admitted, Turkey doesn't get its concessions.

"Get it now?"
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Old 17th May 2022, 12:07 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
They will be allowed into NATO. Turkey wants to use its leverage to get some concessions first. If Finland and Sweden don't get admitted, Turkey doesn't get its concessions.

"Get it now?"

Yeah I get it, you're wrong and still don't understand what all this is about.
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Old 17th May 2022, 12:28 PM   #372
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Yeah I get it, you're wrong and still don't understand what all this is about.
Maybe you could help me understand. Why for example did Sweden suddenly decide to abandon its long-cherished neutrality and apply to join a mutual defence pact if not because of what Russia is doing?
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Old 17th May 2022, 12:49 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Turkey and Hungary have already stated that they would veto this nonsense. So has Croatia. So no need to worry, just some more noise.
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Yeah I get it, you're wrong and still don't understand what all this is about.
This should be fairly easy to test.

For the purposes of making it easier, I'll just restrict it to one country for one country. You could generalize to the others, one way or the other, but here is the test:

- I predict that by May 31, 2024, Finland's accession to NATO won't be held up by Hungary's veto.

Notes:
- I had to choose 2 years, because even a relatively straightforward process could take many months, at this point
- For the sake of argument, I'm not saying that there might not be other delays, independent of vertoes, but very specifically, Finland's accession to NATO won't be held up by Hungary's veto.
- Prize can be "I told you so," or an avatar swap, or something.
- It also doesn't predict any other outcomes. For example, NATO could become totally discombobulated, infighting with Turkey, or something, but again, the problem would be something different, than Finland's accession being held up by Hungary's veto.
- Disclosure: my personal opninion is that this goes for Croatia, Turkey, etc. but for now, I've limited my terms to be testable (in fact, the term "hold up" might be too wishy washy... anyone got any suggestions?)
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Old 17th May 2022, 01:46 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
This should be fairly easy to test.

For the purposes of making it easier, I'll just restrict it to one country for one country. You could generalize to the others, one way or the other, but here is the test:

- I predict that by May 31, 2024, Finland's accession to NATO won't be held up by Hungary's veto.

Notes:
- I had to choose 2 years, because even a relatively straightforward process could take many months, at this point
- For the sake of argument, I'm not saying that there might not be other delays, independent of vertoes, but very specifically, Finland's accession to NATO won't be held up by Hungary's veto.
- Prize can be "I told you so," or an avatar swap, or something.
- It also doesn't predict any other outcomes. For example, NATO could become totally discombobulated, infighting with Turkey, or something, but again, the problem would be something different, than Finland's accession being held up by Hungary's veto.
- Disclosure: my personal opninion is that this goes for Croatia, Turkey, etc. but for now, I've limited my terms to be testable (in fact, the term "hold up" might be too wishy washy... anyone got any suggestions?)
Yes. Don't attempt to get down in the mud and wrestle the pig in the first place.
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Old 17th May 2022, 01:55 PM   #375
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
They can wish what they want (looking at the leaderess I suspect their political system is as compromised as most of ours'), but they wont get it.
#oysteinbookmark to make easier to find the day CE predicted that Finland and Sweden would not get into NATO on account of Turkey, Hungary, perhaps Croatia objecting.

Anyone willing to place bets?
Two versions:
- When will CE be proven wrong - bet that comes closest in time to the day the last of the two countries officially becomes a member
- Status of ratification by all current NATO members on Dec 31, 2022, at a minute before midnight 100% - yes or no.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:25 PM   #376
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Yes. Don't attempt to get down in the mud and wrestle the pig in the first place.
One of favorite Heinlien quotes..although I don't think he originated it.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:28 PM   #377
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Here's kind of a long thread about Swedish military tech in relation to current events.

I posed it mostly because the Twitterererere person stereotypes all of the Swedish military engineers to be like the Muppet's Swedish Chef.

Tomi T Ahonen Stands With Ukraine on Twitter


In discussion of differences between common Swedish tech compared to common tech in western European militaries, such as the pusher engine on the Saab 21 fighter:


Now I have visions of all of the USSR's military technology strategies being foiled by a bunch of Swedish chef's running around and designing equipment to get around Soviet tactics.
FOr a neutral country that claims to be anti war, Swedan makes some damn fine weaponry.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:28 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
#oysteinbookmark to make easier to find the day CE predicted that Finland and Sweden would not get into NATO on account of Turkey, Hungary, perhaps Croatia objecting.

Anyone willing to place bets?
Two versions:
- When will CE be proven wrong - bet that comes closest in time to the day the last of the two countries officially becomes a member
- Status of ratification by all current NATO members on Dec 31, 2022, at a minute before midnight 100% - yes or no.
See my post, above.

- My version puts CE wrong (at least about Hungary vs. Finland) on May 31, 2024 (i.e. two years, with rounding).
- I'll take your second bet, though. I'm sure they'd go for a symbolic date (Dec. 31 being as good as any), but I think the 2023/2024 timeframe accounts for foot-dragging, procedural issues, etc. Your bet amounts to: Not only will no veto block their accession, but they will, in fact, be fast-tracked by every member of the alliance! That's not to say that some won't. My government seems to be amenable to quick accession.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:46 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
FOr a neutral country that claims to be anti war, Swedan makes some damn fine weaponry.
They managed to be neutral in WWII partly because their military were strong enough to defend. I've seen claims that the Germans considered the Sverige class sufficient to deter an invasion as they would outclass any ocean-capable warships that could get to the Swedish coast.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:47 PM   #380
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I thought the vote would be a bit closer in the Finnish Parliament though the Pro NATO position would still win with a comfortable margin. I thought at least 30 or 40 form the left wing Finnish parties would vote no. I guess Putin really has scared a lot of people in Finland.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:51 PM   #381
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
See my post, above.

- My version puts CE wrong (at least about Hungary vs. Finland) on May 31, 2024 (i.e. two years, with rounding).
- I'll take your second bet, though. I'm sure they'd go for a symbolic date (Dec. 31 being as good as any), but I think the 2023/2024 timeframe accounts for foot-dragging, procedural issues, etc. Your bet amounts to: Not only will no veto block their accession, but they will, in fact, be fast-tracked by every member of the alliance! That's not to say that some won't. My government seems to be amenable to quick accession.
To be honest, I did not put a lot of effort into checking out procedures and the status of various bilateral relationships to calculate a plausible duration for the last ratification to pass.

I do guess however that both applications will be fast-tracked by all NATO members - at least relative to "normal" track.

CE predicts some NATO member(s) will block FI and SE for good. My point is: We can estimate and decide on a point in time to check out the status of this prediction for the purpose of a bet.
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Old 17th May 2022, 02:51 PM   #382
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
They managed to be neutral in WWII partly because their military were strong enough to defend. I've seen claims that the Germans considered the Sverige class sufficient to deter an invasion as they would outclass any ocean-capable warships that could get to the Swedish coast.
And Swedan has had a huge hit in the Arms market with the Karl Gustaf Anti Tank Weapon. Evne the US Army, which has a strong NIH (Not Invented Here) bias has adapted it.
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Old 17th May 2022, 03:17 PM   #383
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
...

CE predicts some NATO member(s) will block FI and SE for good.
CE goes way beyond that. CE implies the notion that they might be permitted to join is not merely wrong but ridiculous.
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:02 PM   #384
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
They managed to be neutral in WWII partly because their military were strong enough to defend. I've seen claims that the Germans considered the Sverige class sufficient to deter an invasion as they would outclass any ocean-capable warships that could get to the Swedish coast.
lol

HSwMS Sverige - Guide 054

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


It's the Tre Kronor class cruisers that were the thing along with modern Destroyers.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

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Old 17th May 2022, 04:11 PM   #385
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
lol

HSwMS Sverige - Guide 054

https://youtu.be/Gkh2vse-KVM
Thanks for that

5:22
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:11 PM   #386
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Why "lol"?
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:17 PM   #387
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And Swedan has had a huge hit in the Arms market with the Karl Gustaf Anti Tank Weapon. Evne the US Army, which has a strong NIH (Not Invented Here) bias has adapted it.
The Bofors 40mm was the thing.
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:19 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The Bofors 40mm was the thing.
I admit I missed that one.
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:39 PM   #389
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Yeah I get it, you're wrong and still don't understand what all this is about.
Given your track record with regards to the current conflict, I can predict that Sweden and Finland will be in NATO on that alone.
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:40 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Yeah I get it, you're wrong and still don't understand what all this is about.
No, he's not wrong, and I don't think you comprehend how badly Putin has screwed up his territorial ambitions. He overstepped by invading Ukraine, and now the West is saying nuh-uh. All he has at this point is sabre-rattling and empty proclamations. What a putz.

Finland and Sweden will join NATO, and I hope Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia follow next.
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Old 17th May 2022, 04:44 PM   #391
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Yes. Don't attempt to get down in the mud and wrestle the pig in the first place.
This isn't wrestling. It's a chance to test, not only CE, but our own assumptions. Occasional testing of our own ideas is probably a good idea. I mean, CE might be right. Maybe we're all dupes of Big Media, Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big NATO, etc.

I mean, my sarcasm may indicate which way I think it's going to go, but I don't actually know.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
CE predicts some NATO member(s) will block FI and SE for good. My point is: We can estimate and decide on a point in time to check out the status of this prediction for the purpose of a bet.
This is a good one for a bet, as far as world affairs go. It's limited in scope, it has well-defined outcomes, and we can bypass media to go right to the source for confirmation.
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Old 17th May 2022, 06:05 PM   #392
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Erdogan got F-15s. He wanted F-354s.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...6-fighter-jets
Quote:
The Pentagon ousted Turkey from the program to buy -- and help build -- Lockheed Martin Corp.’s more advanced F-35 fighter jet in July 2019, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system.

After a period of frosty relations, a meeting between President Joe Biden and Erdogan in Rome in October saw a shift in tone, and last month the two administrations launched a “strategic mechanism” to enhance economic and defense cooperation.
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Old 18th May 2022, 02:48 AM   #393
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
CE goes way beyond that. CE implies the notion that they might be permitted to join is not merely wrong but ridiculous.
The former is a prediction of fact, the latter an opinion, a personal (?) judgement.
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Old 18th May 2022, 02:55 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
No, he's not wrong, and I don't think you comprehend how badly Putin has screwed up his territorial ambitions. He overstepped by invading Ukraine, and now the West is saying nuh-uh. All he has at this point is sabre-rattling and empty proclamations. What a putz.

Finland and Sweden will join NATO, and I hope Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia follow next.
Far less likely.
The "unresolved border disputes" clause is a real stop here - or these three waive the right to Article 5 protection as applies to the country they are having those border disputes with, which totally defeats the purpose of them joining NATO: For this is a recipe for drawing NATO directly into a hot war with Russia not on NATO's choosing, but potentially the juniors' choosing. Not acceptable.

The way to go here is to have everybody convinced that enough NATO members will do enough to make sure Russia loses a lot more than it gains should it try to expand territory, territorial control or pseudo-legal standing (such as allowing South Ossetia[*] to accede to the Russian Federation) in those disputed areas.

---
[*] Originally I had a typo there: "Oddetia". Which is oddly fitting...
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Old 18th May 2022, 04:23 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The former is a prediction of fact, the latter an opinion, a personal (?) judgement.
What amused me was that the opinion, so eagerly offered, implied the prediction was blatantly obviously correct to anyone who understood what was really going on. Yet when asked to explain why, there was nothing but tumbleweed.
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Old 18th May 2022, 07:23 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
What amused me was that the opinion, so eagerly offered, implied the prediction was blatantly obviously correct to anyone who understood what was really going on. Yet when asked to explain why, there was nothing but tumbleweed.
Par for the course.
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Old 18th May 2022, 07:33 AM   #397
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Even before NATO members vote, Erdogan quick to reject the two countries.
Quote:
The NATO Council was unable to process Finland's and Sweden's applications for membership on Wednesday because Turkey blocked it, according to the international financial newspaper Financial Times .

According to the newspaper, Turkey's actions hamper hopes of the countries' rapid acceptance of membership. The Secretary General of the Defense League, Jens Stoltenberg , has previously said he expects the first phase of processing the applications to be completed within a week or two.

NATO has not commented on Turkey's solution other than by reiterating Stoltenberg's previous comments that the security interests of all countries should be taken into account when processing applications.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused his Western allies of downplaying concerns over terrorism. Turkey has criticized Finland and Sweden for failing to extradite the 30 terrorists it has demanded.
https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/...7-03e263ecc0e2
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Old 18th May 2022, 07:50 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Even before NATO members vote, Erdogan quick to reject the two countries.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/...7-03e263ecc0e2
So, that cited a Financial Times article. I think I found it, but I won't post it, in case it's not the one they were citing (link takes you to a pay page). It goes on to say:

Quote:
It also sets the stage for several days of intense diplomacy between the US, Turkey, Finland and Sweden over the issue.

A Turkish official confirmed that Ankara had put the brakes on the process, but insisted that Turkey was not ruling out the prospect of Sweden and Finland joining.

“We’re not saying they can’t be Nato members,” the official said. “Just that we need to be on the same wavelength, the same page, about the threat that we’re facing.”

The official added: “We want to reach an agreement . . . The sooner we can reach an agreement, the sooner the membership discussions can start.”
In short, Erdogan is feeling like he's not being taken seriously. His objections were domestic, in a speech to his own parliamaent. There's still a path to NATO membership, he just wants more than platitudes.
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Old 18th May 2022, 10:44 AM   #399
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How many current members of NATO intend to or have complied with Turkey's demands, and if none, do Erdogan think his blocking the adhesion of Finland and Sweden is also a way to get them to comply ?
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Old 18th May 2022, 10:48 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Erdogan got F-15s. He wanted F-354s.
We've got a few hundred more prototypes to go before we get there, he's going to be waiting for a while.
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