Merged: Russia threatens Finland & Sweden/ they may join within months

[llwyd]

So, tomorrow will be a big news day here in Finland: both the President (Conservative) and the Prime Minister (Social Democrat) will together issue an announcement for the support of our Nato membership bid. The bid will be then sent for approval to the parliament which will overwhelmingly approve of it on Monday or Tuesday (likely simultaneously with the Swedish Riksdag). Historical days in this part of Europe. I'm not sure if this fascist invasion of Ukraine was such a master plan after all...

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by llwyd

So, tomorrow will be a big news day here in Finland: both the President (Conservative) and the Prime Minister (Social Democrat) will together issue an announcement for the support of our Nato membership bid. The bid will be then sent for approval to the parliament which will overwhelmingly approve of it on Monday or Tuesday (likely simultaneously with the Swedish Riksdag). Historical days in this part of Europe. I'm not sure if this fascist invasion of Ukraine was such a master plan after all...

I hope your government will have read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_b...a_headquarters before making its final decision.

[llwyd]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I hope your government will have read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_b...a_headquarters before making its final decision.

Do you think there could maybe have been things Putin should have read before this fascist, unprovoked attack against his peaceful and smaller neighbour? Actually, to be brutally honest, maybe it should have Sun Tzu to judge from these utterly bloody shambles...

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Expressing myself in a little vulgar way, I would say that the UK has a Prime Minister who is obsessed with "kicking Russian asses", and doesn't care much about the energy bills of his citizens.

In the vulgar. **** me this is the only thing that pompous **** has done right the whole time he's been in his job

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I hope your government will have read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_b...a_headquarters before making its final decision.

I hope the Putin bitch remembers that deterrence works both ways and that there is precedent for Russians to refuse launch orders. It would be a shame to hasten Russia's end as a polity. It's more fun to watch the dumb ***** do it to themselves.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by llwyd

Do you think there could maybe have been things Putin should have read before this fascist, unprovoked attack against his peaceful and smaller neighbour? Actually, to be brutally honest, maybe it should have Sun Tzu to judge from these utterly bloody shambles...

Possibly, yes. Perhaps Sun Tzu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Tzu), or another author.

[llwyd]

Well, whatevs, Finland are Sweden will be joining Nato and greatly simplify the defence of the Baltic area and also hugely help the previously isolated northern Norway. I guess this was one of Putin's war aims?

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Possibly, yes. Perhaps Sun Tzu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Tzu), or another author.

Get a grip. Clausewitz is where it's at. Sun Tzu relegated war to the generals. Clausewitz saw war as an exercise of all levers of national power. NATO is using all elements of collective national power by hitting Putin's key vulnerability, NATO expansion. He attacked Ukraine and now NATO is expanding. Let the clerk from the KGB explain that.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by ginjawarrior

In the vulgar. **** me this is the only thing that pompous **** has done right the whole time he's been in his job

I agree this is probably what many people think (you only have to read this thread to be convinced of this), but there is the tragedy. Many people have the poison of deathly nationalism in their head, they don't need to learn it from anybody else.

[ginjawarrior]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I agree this is probably what many people think (you only have to read this thread to be convinced of this), but there is the tragedy. Many people have the poison of deathly nationalism in their head, they don't need to learn it from anybody else.

i'm only here supporting the people defending themselves against genocide

what you here for?

you quote "rt"

but you read the russian sites?

https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html

i'm not like a proper historian or anything, BUT thats some dark **** from our history in europe happening now

[Tero]

Originally Posted by llwyd

Well, whatevs, Finland are Sweden will be joining Nato and greatly simplify the defence of the Baltic area and also hugely help the previously isolated northern Norway. I guess this was one of Putin's war aims?

If you look at the map, Russia lost most of the Baltic. It has international waters, but all that is left to Russia is the end of the Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad shore.

Guess they have to start spying on Sweden from submarines again.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Tero

If you look at the map, Russia lost most of the Baltic. It has international waters, but all that is left to Russia is the end of the Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad shore.

Guess they have to start spying on Sweden from submarines again.

If they have any that work.

[jimbob]

Interesting thread about the Ukrainian military structure:


https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/sta...YNn5Kk3Ru8Abdw

Quote:

There is an interesting lesson here about avoiding self-replication when providing training. The Ukrainian model has proven successful, but resembles Finland's approach more than the US. NATO should be cautious about telling Finns about 'best practice' if it joins. 13/13

[Dave Rogers]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I hope your government will have read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_b...a_headquarters before making its final decision.

... and considered that, for NATO, this is a rare controversy, whereas for Russia it's just another Tuesday.

Dave

[Tero]

The vote in Finland is still going on in the parliament. All major leaders have stated approval. It looks like some events drag on to Sun and Mon.

Quote:

The parliamentary groups will meet from 2 pm to 2.30 pm (today). Of particular interest is the group meeting of the largest party, the SDP, as the party as a whole has not yet stated its position on NATO.

At 4 pm, Parliament normally has Question Time, during which Members of Parliament have the opportunity to put questions to Ministers. NATO will be the main topic of discussion. Iltalehti also broadcasts Question Time live.

The report of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs on the government's current report on the change in the security environment will also be completed on Thursday.

It is not yet certain how this will be made public. This is due to the fact that the Security Policy Ministerial Committee Tp-Utva, formed by the President and the key ministers of the government, will add an addition to this entity by which Finland will express its wish to join NATO.

It may therefore be the case that the full report will not be published until this addition is included. Tp-Utva is expected to make the decision and add on Sunday. The entire government will also meet on Sunday.

From Sunday afternoon, the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister will also hold a joint press conference at the Presidential Palace. After Niinistö and Marin, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) and Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen (Central) will also speak at the event .

At 10 am on Monday morning, Parliament will start talking about the report and Finland's NATO application. There is a tentative time for speeches at 02:00 at night. After the deliberations of the Parliament, Finland is ready to notify NATO of its willingness to join the Defense League.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/...7-439996a8d785

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Tero

The vote in Finland is still going on in the parliament. All major leaders have stated approval. It looks like some events drag on to Sun and Mon.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/...7-439996a8d785

It's Eurovision this weekend so a bit of drag is probably de-rigeur.

I hope that there are no negative repercussions if Finland joins NATO because if Putin follows through with his threats it could turn out very badly for him.

[Nessie]

Someone needs to give Putin a slap and point out to him that Finland and Sweden are not an invasion threat to Russia and if for some bizarre reason another country tried to invade Russia via Sweden or Finland, the Swedes and Finns would likely fight that country for invading them.

Putin is a coward who thinks he is a tough guy.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by Nessie

Someone needs to give Putin a slap and point out to him that Finland and Sweden are not an invasion threat to Russia and if for some bizarre reason another country tried to invade Russia via Sweden or Finland, the Swedes and Finns would likely fight that country for invading them.

Putin is a coward who thinks he is a tough guy.

I wouldn't be so sure. Putin is probably worried about a Swedish invasion of the Holy Roman Empire Redux: Invasion of the Russian Orthodox Empire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedis...y_Years%27_War

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Nessie

Someone needs to give Putin a slap and point out to him that Finland and Sweden are not an invasion threat to Russia and if for some bizarre reason another country tried to invade Russia via Sweden or Finland, the Swedes and Finns would likely fight that country for invading them.

Putin is a coward who thinks he is a tough guy.

I'm pretty sure that Putin knows that Finland and Sweden are no military threat to Russia but it's a line he can sell the Russian people to support him in his fight against the "de-Russification" of Russia.

If Russia becomes more like most of the rest of Europe, there'll be less opportunity for kleptocrats to plunder the economy and for authoritarians to bully the population. That's where the real threat to Putin lies - people seeing that the West isn't populated with two-headed monsters and Nazis, they're just normal folk enjoying greater personal freedom and a better standard of living.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Don

I'm pretty sure that Putin knows that Finland and Sweden are no military threat to Russia but it's a line he can sell the Russian people to support him in his fight against the "de-Russification" of Russia.

If Russia becomes more like most of the rest of Europe, there'll be less opportunity for kleptocrats to plunder the economy and for authoritarians to bully the population. That's where the real threat to Putin lies - people seeing that the West isn't populated with two-headed monsters and Nazis, they're just normal folk enjoying greater personal freedom and a better standard of living.

Which is the threat of the existence of Ukraine.

If streetlights are considered an exotic extravagance, you have problems.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Nessie

Someone needs to give Putin a slap and point out to him that Finland and Sweden are not an invasion threat to Russia and if for some bizarre reason another country tried to invade Russia via Sweden or Finland, the Swedes and Finns would likely fight that country for invading them.

Putin is a coward who thinks he is a tough guy.

Just to add to The Don's response, which is a good point I hadn't considered, I'd say that Putin would also like to keep them out of NATO in case he ever wants to bully them in the future (especially Finland). Additionally, he probably feels like he has to complain and threaten in this case so that he will appear consistent when he complains and threatens over the possible accession of countries he really doesn't want in NATO, namely Ukraine and other countries he has invaded or is planning to invade.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Interesting thread about the Ukrainian military structure:


https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/sta...YNn5Kk3Ru8Abdw

I think the twitterer may be conflating a few different things, and missing some basic points.

Providing doctrinal and strategic guidance to the Ukrainian general staff would have been part of the 8 years of preparation. It's not just a question of "train enough sergeants".

And having a cadre of combat veterans - across all ranks - is a well understood doctrine for military success. It's been recognized and taught by modern military institutions going back hundreds of years. The principle itself goes back to antiquity.

Rather than the Ukrainians fielding a veteran cadre instead of or in spite of NATO recommendations, I think it is much more likely that they did so as part of those recommendations.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers

... and considered that, for NATO, this is a rare controversy, whereas for Russia it's just another Tuesday.

Dave

I don't think that Ukrainian television has suffered an attack of this magnitude so far, the Kiev TV tower seems to be working again after the March 1 Russian strike (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_T...missile_strike).

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I think the twitterer may be conflating a few different things, and missing some basic points.

Providing doctrinal and strategic guidance to the Ukrainian general staff would have been part of the 8 years of preparation. It's not just a question of "train enough sergeants".

And having a cadre of combat veterans - across all ranks - is a well understood doctrine for military success. It's been recognized and taught by modern military institutions going back hundreds of years. The principle itself goes back to antiquity.

Rather than the Ukrainians fielding a veteran cadre instead of or in spite of NATO recommendations, I think it is much more likely that they did so as part of those recommendations.

I read it as the Ukrainian military were in the process of developing an NCO cadre, but even 8 years isn't really enough time. But they do have a cadre of veterans and flexibility, rather than being a Soviet style army of before.

[Dave Rogers]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I don't think that Ukrainian television has suffered an attack of this magnitude so far, the Kiev TV tower seems to be working again after the March 1 Russian strike (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_T...missile_strike).

All that shows is that Russia is incompetent as well as evil.

Dave

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers

All that shows is that Russia is incompetent as well as evil.

Dave

Incompetent as well as evil? Hmm. That sounds like the sort of people who would shoot unarmed civilians in the back, and do it on CCTV.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025

[dudalb]

Russian officials making open threats against Finland after the Presidents and PM's coming out in favor of Finland joining NATO..which makes it pretty much a done deal as far As FInland is concerned.
Now if they just wait to attack during the Winter....that will show those FInns....

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Nessie

Someone needs to give Putin a slap and point out to him that Finland and Sweden are not an invasion threat to Russia and if for some bizarre reason another country tried to invade Russia via Sweden or Finland, the Swedes and Finns would likely fight that country for invading them.

Putin is a coward who thinks he is a tough guy.

Maybe the Russians have forgotten the Winter War?

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

I read it as the Ukrainian military were in the process of developing an NCO cadre, but even 8 years isn't really enough time. But they do have a cadre of veterans and flexibility, rather than being a Soviet style army of before.

The Soviet attempts to do that were a failure, because, I have read in several sources. the officers sabotaged it because that would involve giving NCO's actual authority and letting them make decisions....and the officers were not willing to give up any of their power.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

The Soviet attempts to do that were a failure, because, I have read in several sources. the officers sabotaged it because that would involve giving NCO's actual authority and letting them make decisions....and the officers were not willing to give up any of their power.

I'm reminded of the old Soviet Bloc joke about their economy.

"It's an understanding - they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work"

Probably similar lines

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Maybe the Russians have forgotten the Winter War?

Well they tried armoured offensives in the Rasputitsa, and they should have realised that wouldn't be a clever idea.

And to be fair, in Putin's video announcing the "special military operation", most of his advisors did not manage to look happy even for the camera.

[Ryokan]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Now if they just wait to attack during the Winter....that will show those FInns....

Although the Russians famously lost a lot of soldiers during the Winter War, they did win and gained more territory than they had demanded before the war.

ETA: Territory they still hold, I might add.

[Ryokan]

I see a cloud on the horizon.

New NATO members have to be accepted by all the member states.

And Hungary is still governed by Putin's boyfriend.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Tero

The vote in Finland is still going on in the parliament. All major leaders have stated approval. It looks like some events drag on to Sun and Mon.



https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/...7-439996a8d785

Of course every member of the Finnish Parliament wants to speak on this issue even though the final outcome is certain.. it's far from being a habit confined to the US Congress. I think most real legislatures that are not just rubber stamps for the executive branch indulge in this from time to tiem.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Ryokan

I see a cloud on the horizon.

New NATO members have to be accepted by all the member states.

And Hungary is still governed by Putin's boyfriend.

I think NATO will let Hungary know If they block Finland entry Hungary might find itself a ex NATO nation. There are lots of ways NATO and EU can ut pressure on Hungary. And, I supsect they iwll be some Mutual Defense pacts in the works as a back up.
But I supsect Hungary's dictator will just go along. ANd pUtin is looking more and more like a bad bet anway.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I think NATO will let Hungary know If they block Finland entry Hungary might find itself a ex NATO nation. There are lots of ways NATO and EU can ut pressure on Hungary. And, I supsect they iwll be some Mutual Defense pacts in the works as a back up.
But I supsect Hungary's dictator will just go along. ANd pUtin is looking more and more like a bad bet anway.

The UK has already said that.

And as you said afterwards, people don't want to tie their fortune to losers that are also working hard at being pariahs

[Ryokan]

Orban hasn't exactly thrown Putin under the bus yet. I will remain worried until Finland is officially accepted into NATO.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Ryokan

I see a cloud on the horizon.

New NATO members have to be accepted by all the member states.

And Hungary is still governed by Putin's boyfriend.

I'm not too concerned about this. Here is an interesting article that explains why Orban is unlikely to stick his neck out much more for Putin, despite their bromance.

tl;dr:

Poland is obviously very anti-Russia. Hungary and Poland have been vetoing EU sanctions against each other for years, so Orban can't really afford to antagonize the Poles any more than he already has.

The one potential fly in the ointment is that Orban has an axe to grind against Finland because of that country's having advocated sanctions against Hungary when it held the CoE presidency. However, a couple of other articles I saw suggested that this issue might be able to be finessed by a joint Finnish-Swedish NATO bid.

[Tero]

Originally Posted by The Don

It's Eurovision this weekend so a bit of drag is probably de-rigeur.

I hope that there are no negative repercussions if Finland joins NATO because if Putin follows through with his threats it could turn out very badly for him.

Sweden would need to send out some submarines to sink those Russian ships cruising in front of Helsinki. Finland has no subs. I guess sea mines are out of the question, as Finland connects to Sweden mostly by ship.

[Ryokan]

President Erdogan of Turkey says it would be a mistake if Finland and Sweden were admitted into NATO.

I thought he was over his romance with Putin, but I guess not.

ETA: He says the Scandinavian countries are like guest houses for terrorists. I guess he's talking about us having given asylum to Kurds and Turkish political dissidents.