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Old 19th May 2022, 09:17 AM   #41
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To be fair this whole "message" is REAL bad here in Florida/Georgia where like I'm not exaggerated that "No Trump likes me, he really likes me!" is like the only message any Republican has, so maybe I just exist on a far end of the bell curve for this.
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Old 19th May 2022, 09:18 AM   #42
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The guys who do Pod save America (yes, I know, I know) have a series where they go over campaign ads with other "experts" I the field. They bring in people who worked in different campaigns and administrations to critique what is being run by candidates.

It seems the most popular things for any Republican running are "Trump loves me" and "I trigger the libs" followed by some grade-school understanding of things like "freedom". No real messaging. No policy. Just "I love Trump and hate the people you hate."
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Old 19th May 2022, 09:30 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
The guys who do Pod save America (yes, I know, I know) have a series where they go over campaign ads with other "experts" I the field. They bring in people who worked in different campaigns and administrations to critique what is being run by candidates.

It seems the most popular things for any Republican running are "Trump loves me" and "I trigger the libs" followed by some grade-school understanding of things like "freedom". No real messaging. No policy. Just "I love Trump and hate the people you hate."
I would only point out that "Trump loves me" and "I trigger the libs" are different, if closely related messages.

Seems to me the politics of grievance and being intentionally obnoxious are certainly going to stick around for a long time, and only become more extreme as the political right more closely embraces violent militia and fascist street gang type organizations and ideology. Whether or not this involves Trump in the future is very much an open question.

Trumpism without Trump seems a likely enough future.
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Old 19th May 2022, 12:38 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Hopefully the party gives them as much support as they gave their opponents during the primary. Surely the Dems wouldn't behave self-destructively out of spite.
Never underestimate the Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Old 19th May 2022, 12:41 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Never underestimate the Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
"Oh man I've got the Republicans in my sights. Oh they are completely out in the open. Let me just get out my rifle. Check the chamber to make sure it isn't jammed. Adjust for windage. Put the cross hairs right on them.."

*Suddenly point the rifle directly at their nuts and pulls the trigger*

"OH MY GOD! WHAT WENT WRONG!"
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Old 19th May 2022, 01:28 PM   #46
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Alternatively: Democrat puts down the rifle because it wouldn't be sporting and challenges the Republican to a knife fight. Republican then proceeds to call in an airstrike.
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Old 19th May 2022, 01:29 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Alternatively: Democrat puts down the rifle because it wouldn't be sporting and challenges the Republican to a knife fight. Republican then proceeds to call in an airstrike.
They do have a Charlie Brown, Lucy, and the Football thing going on for sure.
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Old 19th May 2022, 07:20 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Never underestimate the Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Part of the problem is that different Democrats think defeat happened for different reasons.
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Old 19th May 2022, 07:21 PM   #49
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Lots of infighting in New York, due to the redistricting. Rep. Sean Maloney, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has announced his intention to run in the NY-17 district, potentially against freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the district. Maloney actually lives in the redrawn district, although that is not required.

The grumbling is especially loud since Maloney's old district as redrawn is considered only D+5 while the 17th is D+10. There's quite a bit of speculation he's switching to avoid the likely blue wave this November, and concern that his position as the head of the DCCC creates a conflict of interest should Jones decide to defend his district (he could also run against fellow freshman Democrat Jamaal Bowman, although this would effectively pit him against a fellow progressive).
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Old 20th May 2022, 04:32 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Lots of infighting in New York, due to the redistricting. Rep. Sean Maloney, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has announced his intention to run in the NY-17 district, potentially against freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the district. Maloney actually lives in the redrawn district, although that is not required.

The grumbling is especially loud since Maloney's old district as redrawn is considered only D+5 while the 17th is D+10. There's quite a bit of speculation he's switching to avoid the likely blue wave this November, and concern that his position as the head of the DCCC creates a conflict of interest should Jones decide to defend his district (he could also run against fellow freshman Democrat Jamaal Bowman, although this would effectively pit him against a fellow progressive).
Certainly not the only rep to make some greedy decisions come redistricting time, but it's pretty shameful for the reasons you say. He's a big fish that is probably best equipped to run in a more competitive race, and as head of the DCCC, maximizing Dem seats should be a priority for him. It's safest for him personally to muscle into the safer district, but it would undoubtedly be better for the party for him to slug it out and try to retain this more competitive seat.

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Old 20th May 2022, 05:16 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Serious question...would West Virginia elect a Democratic Senator left of Manchin? Could be a better-than-nothing thing, like it or not.
If Richard Ojeda didn't turn out to be a nutjob quitter he would have had a fighting chance.

Manchin has only a slightly higher chance of winning in 2024 than I do, really. His losing a primary challenge from a pro-labor democrat that doesn't come off as an elitist wouldn't change the chances of keeping the seat all that much. The problem is that guy is Richard Ojeda and he flushed all of his credibility and clout down the toilet years ago. Other than that the Democrats are standard issue liberals who seem to have no idea of how to communicate with the electorate and would have zero chance.
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Old 20th May 2022, 06:57 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
(he could also run against fellow freshman Democrat Jamaal Bowman, although this would effectively pit him against a fellow progressive).
That's my district. Of course, the New York Democratic Party is trying to muscle out 2 black congressmen who campaign for progressive policies. Especially outspoken ones who aren't afraid to call out the party's "leadership".

It says a lot about how much faith they have in "centrism" when they turn tail and try to take a safe blue district rather than prove they can win in a competitive one.
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Old 20th May 2022, 07:05 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
To be fair this whole "message" is REAL bad here in Florida/Georgia where like I'm not exaggerated that "No Trump likes me, he really likes me!" is like the only message any Republican has, so maybe I just exist on a far end of the bell curve for this.
An interesting example is the Idaho governor primary race. Trump endorsed a primary challenger against the incumbent, and the incumbent absolutely creamed her.

You may recall that this is the Lt. Governor who tried to deploy the Idaho national guard to the Mexican border when she tried to sneakily usurp power while the Governor was out of state.

She had the Trump nod and tried to out-crazy the current Republican incumbent in deep red Idaho and still got washed by 20 points.

I really do wonder if Trump's personality is waning in power. Then again, Idaho is kinda weird and has their own unique political culture, so it's perhaps not useful to extrapolate.

https://www.newsweek.com/janice-mcge...rimary-1707434
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Old 20th May 2022, 05:28 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Certainly not the only rep to make some greedy decisions come redistricting time, but it's pretty shameful for the reasons you say. He's a big fish that is probably best equipped to run in a more competitive race, and as head of the DCCC, maximizing Dem seats should be a priority for him. It's safest for him personally to muscle into the safer district, but it would undoubtedly be better for the party for him to slug it out and try to retain this more competitive seat.
You definitely don't want to get caught between a congressman and a lifeboat.
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Old 20th May 2022, 06:29 PM   #55
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Quote:
Corporate Democrats Keep Falling, One By One by Jeff Cohen And Norman Solomon

On Tuesday, yet another "Bad Blue" apparently went down to defeat — with Rep. Kurt
Schrader of Oregon, a seven-term incumbent, running way behind community activist
Jamie McLeod-Skinner in the slowly tallied Democratic primary. Schrader is not the first
"Bad Blue" on our list to face defeat by a progressive challenger. And he's unlikely to be
the last.

He heavily outspent McLeod-Skinner — thanks to lavish funding from Big Pharma and
other corporate PACs — but was out-organized on the ground. McLeod-Skinner called
him "the Joe Manchin of the House." The current vote count indicates that constituents
in that district south of Portland will no longer be represented by a Democrat who obstructs
progressive initiatives on Capitol Hill, such as drug pricing reform and Build Back Better.
(Despite his history of blocking key Democratic priorities, Schrader was endorsed in the
primary by both President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.)

Not sure what to make of this article on Salon. Brain way too tired.
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Old 23rd May 2022, 03:06 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Solitaire View Post
Not sure what to make of this article on Salon. Brain way too tired.
I tell you what I think:

Schrader was endorsed in the primary by both President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

But it's not just Koch Industries that supports Cuellar against Cisneros. It's also Pelosi.

Her power is finally waning just as Trump's is.

Now let's see these progressives turn their primary success into seats.
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Old 24th May 2022, 06:58 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

Now let's see these progressives turn their primary success into seats.
It will be interesting if they get any party support for these races. When push comes to shove the Biden/Pelosi axis and their big donors see these progressives as more of a threat to themselves than the GOP.
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Old 24th May 2022, 08:11 AM   #58
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I can totally see them pulling punches in those elections and then claiming progressives can't win. I want to believe at least Pelosi understands the severity, but she likes to give me reasons to doubt.
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Old 24th May 2022, 09:29 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
If Richard Ojeda didn't turn out to be a nutjob quitter he would have had a fighting chance.

Manchin has only a slightly higher chance of winning in 2024 than I do, really. His losing a primary challenge from a pro-labor democrat that doesn't come off as an elitist wouldn't change the chances of keeping the seat all that much.
How exactly are you coming to that particular conclusion?

Trump won West Virginia in 2016 and 2020 with over 68% of the vote. The other senate seat was won by a republican with over 70% of the vote. All 3 of their house representatives are republican. (Heck, even Ojeda lost by over 10% in the district that he ran in in 2018.) The state appears to be solidly red, and Manchin definitely seems like an anomaly when it comes to West Virginia politics.

So what makes you think that a non-Manchin democrat would have any chance in West Virginia?
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Old 24th May 2022, 10:31 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
How exactly are you coming to that particular conclusion?

Trump won West Virginia in 2016 and 2020 with over 68% of the vote. The other senate seat was won by a republican with over 70% of the vote. All 3 of their house representatives are republican. (Heck, even Ojeda lost by over 10% in the district that he ran in in 2018.) The state appears to be solidly red, and Manchin definitely seems like an anomaly when it comes to West Virginia politics.

So what makes you think that a non-Manchin democrat would have any chance in West Virginia?
Not anyone. Ojeda specifically.

Ojeda won a bright red local district for his state senate seat and then in a national house campaign national democrats wrote off as hopeless lost by ten points in a place Trump was carrying by at least 40. As a underfunded neophyte.

(The other senate seat that went 70/30 was in any practical sense an unopposed race. As Ojeda's was supposed to be before he became plausible. )

An Ojeda that kept up his momentum he created is a fascinating prospect: he was the main legislative/governmental supporter of the popular teacher strike and was more and more gaining influence by hammering on labor issues. He was still at the beginning, gaining more and more experience, and basically being the kind of Democrat that Republicans should have nightmares about. He was winning alarming amounts of Republican voters with a progressive platform. Any time the legislature did anything he was the guy that wound up in front of the TV cameras.

His ceiling was, well, there wasn't one. A progressive that was a military vet who benches 440 and looks like someone willing to kick your ass if you tried him is optimal for the demographics the Democrats are losing hand over fist.

...and then he lost his mind, thought he could run for president, and resigned his senate seat to do it. He just wasn't capable of patience.


The Democratic party here is packed to the gills with people who prize civility above all else and think that will win them votes. Which there are no words to describe how I feel about that.
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Old 24th May 2022, 06:27 PM   #61
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Problem is there is no vast hidden left wing vote out there like many progressives beleive.
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Old 24th May 2022, 06:28 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Alternatively: Democrat puts down the rifle because it wouldn't be sporting and challenges the Republican to a knife fight. Republican then proceeds to call in an airstrike.
Please explain again why a dramatic turn to the left will help the Democrats in the all important swing states.
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Old 24th May 2022, 06:45 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Problem is there is no vast hidden left wing vote out there like many progressives beleive.
Sure there is. Turnout is crap, especially for midterms. Polls show that something like 80% of the population is pro-choice. Are Democrats getting 80% of the population voting for them? Then there's room for improvement. Figure out why people aren't voting and address that. Hint: the "we're slightly better than the alternative" motivation is pretty well tapped out. Try actually doing something positive for a change instead of accomplishing nothing and blaming Manchin for it.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Please explain again why a dramatic turn to the left will help the Democrats in the all important swing states.
Turnout is crap there too. Swing states aren't uniform purple, there's as many people left of center as right. That's kind of why they swing. Give them something to vote for. Yes, it's going to be hard to overcome decades of spineless moderation with scant months to go until the election. Tough ****. Get off your asses and justify them wasting their day to put a D on the ballot.

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Old 24th May 2022, 07:12 PM   #64
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Ah, the Lost Tribe Theory Of Politics.
And your total contempt for anybody not as far to the left as you are is noted.
But then you are the one who wants to make AOC a dictator.....
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Old 24th May 2022, 07:29 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Ah, the Lost Tribe Theory Of Politics.
And your total contempt for anybody not as far to the left as you are is noted.
But then you are the one who wants to make AOC a dictator.....
If I had contempt for you, I wouldn't have bothered to engage. You made a request. I gave an answer. A dramatic turn to the left has promise because feckless centrism isn't working. Shooting the messenger won't explain why you can't win an election even with actual literal crooks and fascists as opponents. People don't want to vote for your candidates and policies. Why do you think that is?

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Old 24th May 2022, 07:32 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
If I had contempt for you, I wouldn't have bothered to engage. You made a request. I gave an answer. A dramatic turn to the left has promise because feckless centrism isn't working. Shooting the messenger won't explain why you can't win an election even with actual literal crooks and fascists as opponents.
Yup, lost tribe school of politics...which has never worked.
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Old 24th May 2022, 07:38 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Yup, lost tribe school of politics...which has never worked.
I'm fairly certain you would have said the same thing about Trump prior to the 2016 election. Yet the deplorables have not only become the driving force of their party, they're beating you. Are you really sure you don't want to even try to broaden the tent of voters you court?
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Old 24th May 2022, 07:48 PM   #68
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Trump’s man in Georgia Perdue got his butt kicked bigly!
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Old 24th May 2022, 08:20 PM   #69
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The polls are pretty clear that the average American wants more progressive policies than what moderate Democrats are willing to do.
As always, socialism is fine with Americans as long as it's not the Dems doing it.
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Old 24th May 2022, 10:36 PM   #70
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Quote:
Turnout is crap there too. Swing states aren't uniform purple, there's as many people left of center as right. That's kind of why they swing. Give them something to vote for. Yes, it's going to be hard to overcome decades of spineless moderation with scant months to go until the election. Tough ****. Get off your asses and justify them wasting their day to put a D on the ballot.
Keep in mind that one of the keys to victory is not just energizing your own voters, its also keeping the other side from being energized against you.

Pick a far-left Democrat and you MIGHT (and I want to stress might... as in no guarantees) pick up a few extra votes from hardcore progressives (the type that were too stupid to vote for a moderately left-of-center.) But, you will also whip up republicans to come out and vote for THEIR candidate. (On the other hand, a more moderate democrat might have caused a few of those republicans to stay at home on voting day.)
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Old 24th May 2022, 10:55 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The polls are pretty clear that the average American wants more progressive policies than what moderate Democrats are willing to do.
As always, socialism is fine with Americans as long as it's not the Dems doing it.
LOL. Don't touch my Medicare.
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Old 24th May 2022, 10:58 PM   #72
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The polls are pretty clear that the average American wants more progressive policies than what moderate Democrats are willing to do.
Actually, the polls are anything BUT clear. Poll responses are highly dependent on what questions are asked and how.

Take for example, health care. I'm sure you can point to a bunch of polls that suggest people want "medicare for all". Great. Case closed. Force everyone onto government-run health insurance. But then, ask them about their own health care, and a majority will say they are satisfied with it. Other polls will show they want a stronger public system but also want to keep a private option.

(See: Gallup)

ETA: Some more info on health care polling.

From: CNN
...support for “Medicare for All” dropped sharply, from 56% to 37%, when people were told it would eliminate private health insurance companies.

Or take college education. There are polls that show people favor government-funded college. But those same polls also show that for most people, it is not considered a top priority (even amongst democrats).

From: Inside Higher Ed
... While 75 percent of Democrats said they support free college, only half said it was a top priority in higher education....only 36 percent of those surveyed from both parties said making college free is a top priority in higher education...other goals more often seen as a top priority were the 63 percent -- including 90 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of Republicans -- who said higher education should be more affordable, though not necessarily free.
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Last edited by Segnosaur; 24th May 2022 at 11:29 PM.
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Old 24th May 2022, 11:20 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
I'm fairly certain you would have said the same thing about Trump prior to the 2016 election. Yet the deplorables have not only become the driving force of their party, they're beating you. Are you really sure you don't want to even try to broaden the tent of voters you court?
Strangely enough, Trump may actually show that moderates might actually have an advantage when it comes to elections.

Believe it or not, Trump was actually seen by more voters as the 'moderate' in the 2016 election compared to Clinton.

From: Gallup
Donald Trump's political views...are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history. About six in 10 registered voters have viewed recent Republican nominees as conservative or very conservative...Trump stands out from the rest of the group with less than half of voters (47%) describing him as conservative or very conservative.
...
Roughly equal proportions of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (51%) and Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (47%) perceive the GOP candidate's views as conservative or very conservative....U.S. voters are most likely to describe Clinton as liberal (31%) or very liberal (27%). One in four consider her a political moderate (25%)...


Now, we here at ISF likely have a more in-depth knowledge about political events and recognized Trump for what he was back in 2016. But if you were a typical voter with only a cursory background, what would you see? A republican who criticized the Iraq war. A republican who was going to give people "great" health care. (Ok, he was lying about those... but the media didn't really challenge him properly so he was able to pass on the lie.) And as a republican he held up an LGBTQ flag at one of his rallies (compare that to republicans like Santorum).

Now, of course, after 4 years of seeing what he was REALLY like, a larger portion of the population see him for what he was. That may have played a part in Biden's victory.... its harder for Trump to say "I'm a moderate" when you've just gotten 3 anti-abortion judges on the supreme court, and signed the "tax cuts for millionaires" bill.
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Old 24th May 2022, 11:29 PM   #74
The Great Zaganza
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well, Trump was only a sexual assaulter, adulterer, conman and tax cheat.
That makes him a moderate compared to a well-known murderer and baby rapist.
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Old 25th May 2022, 04:51 AM   #75
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Anti-abortion Dem Cuellar wins his primary challenge by 177 votes.

Hard to argue that he doesn't owe this victory to the party establishment circling the wagons around him to fend off a progressive challenger.

Anyway, one more anti-abortion politician on the way to levers of power thanks to the Dem leadership.

Cuellar specifically thanks House Whip Clyburn for his help in the race

https://twitter.com/CuellarCampaign/...25196448088064

Last edited by SuburbanTurkey; 25th May 2022 at 04:53 AM.
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Old 25th May 2022, 07:27 AM   #76
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
If I had contempt for you, I wouldn't have bothered to engage. You made a request. I gave an answer. A dramatic turn to the left has promise because feckless centrism isn't working. Shooting the messenger won't explain why you can't win an election even with actual literal crooks and fascists as opponents. People don't want to vote for your candidates and policies. Why do you think that is?
Did you ever think there may be non-policy/non-left vs. moderate reasons why "centrism isn't working"?

Like, for example, a political system (including a senate and electoral college) that give more political power to rural voters compared to urban voters? (Remember, Democrats have won the popular vote many more times than the republicans over the past few decades, but still lost the presidency because the republicans appeal more to y'all quaeda-type voters.)

Or the fact that the republicans have managed to implement widespread voter suppression and gerrymandering, by using all sorts of dirty tricks (which is not a 'left-vs-moderate' thing, but more of a "What tactics should we use?" thing)
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Old 25th May 2022, 07:41 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Did you ever think there may be non-policy/non-left vs. moderate reasons why "centrism isn't working"?

Like, for example, a political system (including a senate and electoral college) that give more political power to rural voters compared to urban voters? (Remember, Democrats have won the popular vote many more times than the republicans over the past few decades, but still lost the presidency because the republicans appeal more to y'all quaeda-type voters.)

Or the fact that the republicans have managed to implement widespread voter suppression and gerrymandering, by using all sorts of dirty tricks (which is not a 'left-vs-moderate' thing, but more of a "What tactics should we use?" thing)
Sure. But the Dem answer to fixing all of those is "vote harder," so it comes down to votes regardless. Currently that's gotten us Emperor Manchin, and arguments that we need to lurch even further right to get more people willing to block any attempt at effective use of power.
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Old 25th May 2022, 07:57 AM   #78
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
well, Trump was only a sexual assaulter, adulterer, conman and tax cheat.
That makes him a moderate compared to a well-known murderer and baby rapist.
Wow. Congratulations. Major applause.

You managed to create a post which is completely useless and totally misses the point.

Nobody (well, except for a few malcontents and trolls) is denying Trump was a conartist/adulterer/etc. Heck, you could have also thrown in racist and serial liar in there too. But the issue is "should a party push moderate or extreme policies". Issues like "is the candidate a con-artist" have nothing to do with whether they are moderate or extreme in their positions.

Heck, if anything you've actually proven my point... Trump has shown "you can be the biggest scumbag that ever entered politics, but as long as your policies are more moderate than your opponents you have a shot at winning".
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Old 25th May 2022, 08:03 AM   #79
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Wow. Congratulations. Major applause.

You managed to create a post which is completely useless and totally misses the point.

Nobody (well, except for a few malcontents and trolls) is denying Trump was a conartist/adulterer/etc. Heck, you could have also thrown in racist and serial liar in there too. But the issue is "should a party push moderate or extreme policies". Issues like "is the candidate a con-artist" have nothing to do with whether they are moderate or extreme in their positions.

Heck, if anything you've actually proven my point... Trump has shown "you can be the biggest scumbag that ever entered politics, but as long as your policies are more moderate than your opponents you have a shot at winning".
you are missing the point: Trump's policies were never of any relevance, since no one could tell you what they were, least of all Trump. *
People voted for Trump because of a decades-long effort by Roger Ailes to make him President, and an even longer campaign by Fox and the GOP literally demonize HRC.

Anyone who claims that they voted for Trump because he was more moderate is lying - to you, but maybe also to themselves.


*proof that Trump's policies didn't matter are the fact that he hardly had an official election program in 2016, and none at all in 2020. That's a pretty radical thing to do for a presidential candidate.
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Old 25th May 2022, 08:15 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Anti-abortion Dem Cuellar wins his primary challenge by 177 votes.

Hard to argue that he doesn't owe this victory to the party establishment circling the wagons around him to fend off a progressive challenger.

Anyway, one more anti-abortion politician on the way to levers of power thanks to the Dem leadership.

Cuellar specifically thanks House Whip Clyburn for his help in the race

https://twitter.com/CuellarCampaign/...25196448088064
It can be hard to shift gears, but Cuellar being anti-abortion is irrelevant. It would matter if he was running for the Texas legislature; for the US Congress it is about to become a moot point.
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