2022 US midterm elections

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Suddenly

That it is weird to people is hard for me to grasp. I spent my formative years among these people. The idea of steel workers honestly debating voting for Mondale/Hart/Jackson in the 1984 primary must seem weird today but it was a common topic that year among the adults in my father's circles. Republicans were the lawyers and managers who didn't exactly hang out in the parking lot after softball games.


My county went 60-40 for Mondale over Reagan. It went 70-30 for Trump.

It's hard to imagine, but the Democratic party wasn't always dominated by the robots of the Professional Managerial Class. It wasn't always deeply uncool to be a lib.

People point to NAFTA as a big inflection point and it certainly seems historically significant, but the party's shift away from the working class and embracing of neoliberalism and elite technocracy was a gradual process.

[Suddenly]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

It's hard to imagine, but the Democratic party wasn't always dominated by the robots of the Professional Managerial Class. It wasn't always deeply uncool to be a lib.

People point to NAFTA as a big inflection point and it certainly seems historically significant, but the party's shift away from the working class and embracing of neoliberalism and elite technocracy was a gradual process.

True as to the economics.

NAFTA wasn't great, but it's main significance is that it made it easier for the GOP to blame Democrats for the later stages of collapse of heavy industry.

I mean, I remember an alibi being set up for an uncle because he definitely wasn't one of the people who flipped over that truck trying to get into the mill. My aunt would wear a T-shirt advocating lethal violence against "scabs." Democrats used to have guts.

[Donal]

Reagan's win in 1980 was a big part of it. Neoliberal thinking started making real inroads in the party and then blamed Mondale alone for his historic loss (obviously he had a huge part of it)despite the party not throwing their weight behind him.

[Random]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

It's hard to imagine, but the Democratic party wasn't always dominated by the robots of the Professional Managerial Class. It wasn't always deeply uncool to be a lib.

People point to NAFTA as a big inflection point and it certainly seems historically significant, but the party's shift away from the working class and embracing of neoliberalism and elite technocracy was a gradual process.

It was Bill Clinton and his "Triangulation" strategy, coupled with the DNC reaching out to wealthy liberals to fill their campaign coffers in lieu of the weakening post-Reagan unions.

Triangulation enabled Clinton to pass significant legislation by accepting conservative theories as worthy, and appealing to wealthy liberals let the DNC run campaigns as expensive as the big business backed GOP. But they were both short tactically smart, strategically stupid decisions.

Clinton's reaching across the middle just gave the GOP more room to run to the right, and the DNC basically shelved effective tax hikes for the rich in order to keep the campaign money rolling in, turning it into a one-way ratchet (GOP cuts taxes, the Dems don't increase them) that forces us to cut popular government services...

[Suddenly]

Originally Posted by Donal

Reagan's win in 1980 was a big part of it. Neoliberal thinking started making real inroads in the party and then blamed Mondale alone for his historic loss (obviously he had a huge part of it)despite the party not throwing their weight behind him.

Perot was a big warning sign that went ignored as well. That he was the anti side in a debate with Al Gore about NAFTA explains quite a bit about the present Democratic Party.

[Donal]

Originally Posted by Suddenly

True as to the economics.

NAFTA wasn't great, but it's main significance is that it made it easier for the GOP to blame Democrats for the later stages of collapse of heavy industry.

I mean, I remember an alibi being set up for an uncle because he definitely wasn't one of the people who flipped over that truck trying to get into the mill. My aunt would wear a T-shirt advocating lethal violence against "scabs." Democrats used to have guts.

I remember watching a CNN reporter back in 2016 show some factory managers that were opposed to Clinton because of NAFTA that 80% of manufacturing jobs since then were lost to automation rather than outsourcing. They didn't believe it because the machines "help me work better".

[Suddenly]

Originally Posted by Donal

I remember watching a CNN reporter back in 2016 show some factory managers that were opposed to Clinton because of NAFTA that 80% of manufacturing jobs since then were lost to automation rather than outsourcing. They didn't believe it because the machines "help me work better".

The sense of betrayal is more the point. While NAFTA in and of itself was not a large cause of these jobs going away, it was a signal that the Democrats were not their friends and it wasn't an isolated incident.

Getting into wonkiness at that point gets counterproductive. The idea that NAFTA wasn't as bad as we remember is in a way shifting goalposts because it was more that the Democrats should have been opposing it that was the problem.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

.... Service workers seems an extremely fertile field if Democrats have any interest in unionism and working class politics.

Yes to all of that and especially this ^.

The labor shortage and rise of unions is an excellent time to move to the left, not target the swing voters leaning right. Yes that swing vote often means the election but I think it's time to forget that and try harder to get the vote out.

Surveys have been consistent that independent voters really aren't. They might not vote a straight party ticket, but they generally lean right or left and that doesn't change much.

What I hear from my son who will always vote and vote for Democrats, is he thinks both parties suck, don't keep their Progressive campaign promises, and they haven't accomplished a thing during his lifetime. When I mentioned the ACA he wasn't impressed that it strongly favored the insurance industry.

I hope Biden can be successful advertising his accomplishments. Right now he's seen as having none.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Yes to all of that and especially this ^.

The labor shortage and rise of unions is an excellent time to move to the left, not target the swing voters leaning right. Yes that swing vote often means the election but I think it's time to forget that and try harder to get the vote out.

Surveys have been consistent that independent voters really aren't. They might not vote a straight party ticket, but they generally lean right or left and that doesn't change much.

What I hear from my son who will always vote and vote for Democrats, is he thinks both parties suck, don't keep their Progressive campaign promises, and they haven't accomplished a thing during his lifetime. When I mentioned the ACA he wasn't impressed that it strongly favored the insurance industry.

I hope Biden can be successful advertising his accomplishments. Right now he's seen as having none.

There's wild stuff happening in labor right now if the party wanted to try to tap into something that people could actually be excited about.

Starbucks just won a unanimous union vote for a store in upstate South Carolina (18-0), a state with 1.8% union participation. If a union can win there, they can win anywhere in this country.

It would be nice to see the supposed liberal party in this country do anything with this grassroots energy, but we all know better than to have such absurd hopes.

https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/st...89052843520001

[Suddenly]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

There's wild stuff happening in labor right now if the party wanted to try to tap into something that people could actually be excited about.

Starbucks just won a unanimous union vote for a store in upstate South Carolina (18-0), a state with 1.8% union participation. If a union can win there, they can win anywhere in this country.

It would be nice to see the supposed liberal party in this country do anything with this grassroots energy, but we all know better than to have such absurd hopes.

https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/st...89052843520001

I mean, there was the whole Teacher's strike stuff and then the BLM stuff they let diffuse because when push comes to shove their bread is not buttered on that side.

It is the sort of thing I think of when I wonder if progressives should be in the GOP and shooting at those primaries. Those usually don't have the best turnout and energetic campaigns might have a chance. Use a lot of Lincoln's more radical pro-labor stuff as the hook about being the real Lincoln Republicans. It isn't like they have to vote GOP in the general.

Dealing with outright hostility from the party is an easier problem to solve than is being patronized and deflected. There is insurgent energy with the former. The latter is just frustrating and pointless.

[Delphic Oracle]

Politico: Pa. GOP Senate race upended by court cases

Multiple court cases and contradictory decisions in the contest between hedge fund manager David McCormick and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz.

The core of the issue is about ballots with no date on the outer envelope, but which were validated as recieved before the deadline.

State and federal courts weighing in, a previous ruling on a county-level judicial election now has been stayed, state election officials, the PA republican party, and the RNC all weighing in.

Quite delicious given the party's rhetoric on election integrity.

[dudalb]

The Pennslyvanis GOP race is a mess.
But when it's that close in a big state, a mess is probably going to happen.

[Tero]

The fact that voting rights bills were not passed in the Biden 2 years may actually be a good thing. The supreme court has no chance to try to ban them. The contested races will all be handled in state courts, few reaching the supreme court.

If things stay the same in the senate, the Democrats will have to address voting rights in 2023. otherwise the 2024 presidential election is guaranteed to be a mess.

[plague311]

Originally Posted by Tero

The fact that voting rights bills were not passed in the Biden 2 years may actually be a good thing. The supreme court has no chance to try to ban them. The contested races will all be handled in state courts, few reaching the supreme court.

If things stay the same in the senate, the Democrats will have to address voting rights in 2023. otherwise the 2024 presidential election is guaranteed to be a mess.

I don't think the Dems will have much of a choice in 2023. I really, really don't see them having a majority in either the House or the Senate after the midterms. I'm generally not the pessimistic type when it comes to politics, but I'd be shocked if the Dems hold on to much. They've lost some pretty big state level elections, and midterms are terrible turnout.

[ahhell]

Originally Posted by dudalb

The Pennslyvanis GOP race is a mess.
But when it's that close in a big state, a mess is probably going to happen.

That and first past the post in a crowded field. We really need to go with some sort of ranked choice and/or instant run off system and/or just get rid of the primaries.

Oz won with less than a third of the vote and less than a tenth of a percent. No one can be satisfied by that.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by dudalb

The Pennslyvanis GOP race is a mess.
But when it's that close in a big state, a mess is probably going to happen.

Fortunately for the GOP, progressives managed to get John Fetterman nominated over moderate Connor Lamb as the Democrat's standard bearer. Fetterman had a stroke shortly before the primary and has not been seen in public since, making folks nervous about whether a replacement candidate will be needed. I would love to see Fetterman recover quickly. This race will make a good test case for the progressives' claim that more liberal candidates are needed in close races.

[ahhell]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Yes to all of that and especially this ^.

The labor shortage and rise of unions is an excellent time to move to the left, not target the swing voters leaning right. Yes that swing vote often means the election but I think it's time to forget that and try harder to get the vote out.

Surveys have been consistent that independent voters really aren't. They might not vote a straight party ticket, but they generally lean right or left and that doesn't change much.

What I hear from my son who will always vote and vote for Democrats, is he thinks both parties suck, don't keep their Progressive campaign promises, and they haven't accomplished a thing during his lifetime. When I mentioned the ACA he wasn't impressed that it strongly favored the insurance industry.

I hope Biden can be successful advertising his accomplishments. Right now he's seen as having none.

Definitely true. I still recommend registering as unaffiliated. Just signing up for a side starts impart bias. Unregistering lightens it a bit.

[Tero]

Originally Posted by plague311

I don't think the Dems will have much of a choice in 2023. I really, really don't see them having a majority in either the House or the Senate after the midterms. I'm generally not the pessimistic type when it comes to politics, but I'd be shocked if the Dems hold on to much. They've lost some pretty big state level elections, and midterms are terrible turnout.

Normally the course is that the party of the president loses. But now we have Trump, abortion etc. I think the midterm will produce little change. Maybe one senator.

[dudalb]

Biggest problem the Dems have is the weekly trip to the grocery store.
The inflation is the biggest problem they have. Right or wrong, the party who is seen as being in charge gets the rap for something like that.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Tero

Normally the course is that the party of the president loses. But now we have Trump, abortion etc. I think the midterm will produce little change. Maybe one senator.

Just about every political commentator disagrees with you. I would like to believe you but just can't.

[Delvo]

Originally Posted by Tero

Normally the course is that the party of the president loses.

Only if the President's party either disappoints or horrifies. It wouldn't be the case if the President's party would do good and make a positive impression. But no party has tried that in more than a generation.

[Tero]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Just about every political commentator disagrees with you. I would like to believe you but just can't.

If Trump is running, it will result in a huge 2024 turnout. And the result is not at all predictable due to the electoral college.

Quote:

The suggestion that Trump could beat Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up has been backed by a recent Emerson College poll conducted on May 24 and 25.

According to those taking part in the survey, 44 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024, and 42 percent said they would back Biden if they were the two candidates.

If by November it looks like Trump is in the election, it's still a Trump race whether 2022 or 2024. If Trump is not running 2024, Biden will be punished.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Tero

If Trump is running, it will result in a huge 2024 turnout. And the result is not at all predictable due to the electoral college.



If by November it looks like Trump is in the election, it's still a Trump race whether 2022 or 2024. If Trump is not running, Biden will be pusnished.

I see you are ignoring the inflation issue;that might well kill the Democrats in November.

[Tero]

I guess there are gullible people that think a president can stop inflation.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Suddenly

My aunt would wear a T-shirt advocating lethal violence against "scabs." Democrats used to have guts.

Democrats used to be terrorist scumbags, you mean. Totalitarian statist terrorist scumbags. Or how else do you explain lethal violence against people who don't sign up for the union program or toe the union line?

How many "scabs" did your aunt murder, though? Five? Two? One? None? I bet it was none at all. I bet Democrats back then had about the same amount of cowardly "guts" as Democrats today. Wore a t-shirt!

[Lurch]

With only two Parties, effectively, if the electorate is stupid enough to bring to power that cabal of traitors who are bent on depriving the citizenry of rights, and who favor the monied class over the vastly larger proletariat, then the country deserves to go down the tubes. Because the US would truly be a confederacy of dunces.

In spite of the GOP chicanery, with sufficient motivation the left and the independents can swamp the Christo-Fascists, Q-nuts, MAGA rats and addled hics. It only requires to recognize the danger. And to not be so short-sighted as to punish the Party that's at least not trying to kill democracy just because of oppositional obstruction implemented to fool the rubes into thinking the better Party gets nothing done.

But that requires enough citizens to have a level of awareness and cognition a step or two above that of a rutabaga.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by Delvo

Only if the President's party either disappoints or horrifies. It wouldn't be the case if the President's party would do good and make a positive impression. But no party has tried that in more than a generation.

That would be nice, but the empirical fact is that the President's party loses no matter what, unless there is a war on.

[llwyd]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I see you are ignoring the inflation issue;that might well kill the Democrats in November.

I agree. The inflation will be blamed on the party currently in the White House and in majority in the Congress. Trump and abortion are motivators for the Democratic turnout but I don't think they will help that much in the midterms.

[Delvo]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

That would be nice, but the empirical fact is that the President's party loses no matter what, unless there is a war on.

...in the last few decades.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by Delvo

...in the last few decades.

AKA living memory

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by llwyd

I agree. The inflation will be blamed on the party currently in the White House and in majority in the Congress. Trump and abortion are motivators for the Democratic turnout but I don't think they will help that much in the midterms.

There's a lot of downsides to being the party in power while being totally hamstrung by "centrist" ideologues.

Biden et al are getting blamed for all the bad things, including things that are truly beyond their control to some extent, but are getting no credit for doing good things because they aren't doing much good things. Biden's signature issues he campaigned on, which are arguably inadequate to the need of the moment anyway, are not coming to fruition because of austerity hawks within party refuse to bargain. Biden is just keeping the seat warm and counting down the days until his party loses control of the legislature, then the white house.

Honestly I suspect being shown to be totally ineffective while in power like this is worse than being in the minority. The current state of affairs is devastating for the credibility of the party. Only one party is able to actually realize any of their agenda, and it so happens to be one galloping towards fascism. Real bleak stuff.

[Tero]

Quote:

Honestly I suspect being shown to be totally ineffective while in power like this is worse than being in the minority.

You have to sign a lot of executive orders to make it SEEM like you are in power. Biden should just do that for guns like Trump slapped on China tariffs.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Tero

You have to sign a lot of executive orders to make it SEEM like you are in power. Biden should just do that for guns like Trump slapped on China tariffs.

Yeah, he should. It's political malpractice to not do so. Time is running short and Biden will soon be dealing with a hostile legislature rather than an paralyzed one.

The student loan forgiveness issue is one that seems a relevant example. It's something Biden promised during the campaign to do a vague amount of debt cancellation, but unlike many other failed promises that are arguably hamstrung by the legislature, this is 100% within his power to do.

[Delphic Oracle]

SCOTUS has stayed a lower federal court order to redraw Alabama district maps, though does not appear to have any interest on considering the actual underlying challenge against them.

This will likely influence the rulings of other challenges in progress.

As is becoming increasingly common for me, I can only articulate my disappointment and pessimism by saying: "this is America."

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

SCOTUS has stayed a lower federal court order to redraw Alabama district maps, though does not appear to have any interest on considering the actual underlying challenge against them.

This will likely influence the rulings of other challenges in progress.

As is becoming increasingly common for me, I can only articulate my disappointment and pessimism by saying: "this is America."

The US is full throttle careening into a legitimacy crisis and I really don't think the Democratic party is going to be tough enough to meet the moment. Not even close to having the constitution for the nastiness that is quite obviously going to happen very soon.

[Lurch]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

AKA living memory

What is this "memory" of which you speak?

[Dr. Keith]

Originally Posted by Brainster

Fortunately for the GOP, progressives managed to get John Fetterman nominated over moderate Connor Lamb as the Democrat's standard bearer. Fetterman had a stroke shortly before the primary and has not been seen in public since, making folks nervous about whether a replacement candidate will be needed. I would love to see Fetterman recover quickly. This race will make a good test case for the progressives' claim that more liberal candidates are needed in close races.

I mean, you could also be happy if he recovers quickly because debilitating strokes are really awful. But yeah, political test case may make a good third or fourth reason to be happy if he recovers quickly.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Brainster

Fortunately for the GOP, progressives managed to get John Fetterman nominated over moderate Connor Lamb as the Democrat's standard bearer. Fetterman had a stroke shortly before the primary and has not been seen in public since, making folks nervous about whether a replacement candidate will be needed. I would love to see Fetterman recover quickly. This race will make a good test case for the progressives' claim that more liberal candidates are needed in close races.

It's odd seeing people treat Fetterman as the "unelectable" candidate. Connor Lamb has never won a state-wide race, while Fetterman is a popular Lt. Governor. Lamb also got absolutely trounced in the primary and didn't even win his own home district. The reflexive instinct to conflate moderate and electable seems to be entirely unsupported by evidence in this case.

[Tero]

Not good. I'd almost vote more likely for Biden than Fetterman if the two were in the same primary. He only needs to move the pen to sign bills.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/03/p...lth/index.html

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Tero

Not good. I'd almost vote more likely for Biden than Fetterman if the two were in the same primary. He only needs to move the pen to sign bills.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/03/p...lth/index.html

Pretty sure those are common medical issues for Senators. He had afib, threw a clot, got to the hospital in time to reverse the damage and I imagine he's now on blood thinners and antihypertensive meds which will likely control the afib.

So what is your concern?