IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

Reply
Old 27th May 2022, 02:13 PM   #281
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 60,194
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Two UK citizens and a Moroccan, who fought on the Ukrainian side in the country's eastern Donbas region, may face the death penalty.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
In the interest of saving you a click: A prosecutor in the DNR is saying this.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 03:24 PM   #282
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 25,628
I saw that the US and the UK are giving Ukraine longer range rockets. This should expand their range to about 40 miles. There are rockets for the system that can travel about 190 miles but Ukraine isn't getting those. Still 40 miles could be a game changer.
__________________
Fight like a Ukrainian.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 03:25 PM   #283
pzkpfw
Scholar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Just as importantly, the logistics tail needed to support an F-35 is going to be a lot more complicated and expensive than for an A-10. And it's useless to give either plane to Ukraine without giving them the logistics tail as well. This also means it would probably take a lot longer to set up that logistics tail for an F-35 than for an A-10.
In this hypothetical, the A-10s would be able to be treated as expendable. (More so than any military equipment is).

I'm no expert and I suppose I'm wrong, but I assume keeping them flying long enough for the current crisis is different than maintaining them to the standard to last another ten years. Kind of like you should change the oil in your car as often as the manufacturer says, but ...

(And yes, no pilot wants their plane to "run out of oil" while in the air. (I'm not saying zero or shoddy logistics/maintenance.))

((Not that I think any of this is practical or will happen.))

Last edited by pzkpfw; 27th May 2022 at 03:32 PM.
pzkpfw is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 03:50 PM   #284
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 43,373
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
In the interest of saving you a click: A prosecutor in the DNR is saying this.
They are the ones holding the POWs.
Seems he has authority to do it.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 03:58 PM   #285
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 60,194
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
They are the ones holding the POWs.
Seems he has authority to do it.
Not disputing their authority. Just giving a complete summary of what jurisdiction is saying this. That being the obvious question raised but not answered by your post. This way people can get the answer without having to click through, give away their eyeballs, and wade through the fluff to find the lede.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 04:21 PM   #286
eerok
Quixoticist
 
eerok's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,127
With respect to the new, less cheerful tone regarding how the war is going, Ukraine is changing their message because IMO it's time for them to change their message. This was never going to be a walk in the park, but it was important to show the West at the outset that Ukrainians were fit and able to take the fight to the invaders. Otherwise why would anyone else invest in their struggle?

But it's a tough fight, and it's time for Western allies to step up to another level with more and better support and materiel.

Ukraine has been good at the information war, and you can't fault them because they're fighting for their very survival. So for those who might be losing heart at how things are going, this was never going to be easy. This is just a new phase, and it requires more effort from everyone.

That's just how it seems to me. I think Ukraine can still win, but it's far from over.
__________________
"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde
eerok is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 04:24 PM   #287
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 51,938
Originally Posted by pzkpfw View Post
In this hypothetical, the A-10s would be able to be treated as expendable. (More so than any military equipment is).

I'm no expert and I suppose I'm wrong, but I assume keeping them flying long enough for the current crisis is different than maintaining them to the standard to last another ten years. Kind of like you should change the oil in your car as often as the manufacturer says, but ...

(And yes, no pilot wants their plane to "run out of oil" while in the air. (I'm not saying zero or shoddy logistics/maintenance.))

((Not that I think any of this is practical or will happen.))
Jet plains need specialized maintenance on a regular basis. Even as "expendable" they still should last months at a minimum, since we can expect the war to last that long or longer. You can't last even that long doing combat missions without regular service, even if you skimp on some long term stuff.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 04:44 PM   #288
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 43,373
Old jets need even more maintenance.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 05:16 PM   #289
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 60,194
And these days I think even the F-35 logistics chain may be cheaper than the A-10's. Sourcing obsolete electronics is no easy thing. Buying parts is sets of ten is a lot more expensive than buying them in sets of a hundred. Or a thousand.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 06:22 PM   #290
Delphic Oracle
Philosopher
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 6,277
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I hope that the strategy of training up motivated locals and give them the weapons they need will become the norm for US military intervention going forward - it's clearly way more effective than what we did in Iraq and Afghanistan, it's cheaper and it's less likely to create an entire generation that hates us.
Well, with some stretching of how to define "locals" as including people from the region who arguably have a dog in the fight (which is happening in Ukraine), we've been at it for some time.

See: Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

We backed militias in Libya.

We hired despotic warlords in Sudan who went from harboring our targets to killing them for us.

I will grant you this instance has the benefit of being on the right(er) side of morality, but those are exceptions.

Even when we roll up our sleeves and do it ourselves, we tend to leave behind massive stockpiles of abandoned arms and equipment. It is not a certainty and other variables come into play, but in many cases this means lots of black market weapons, dubious partners flush with cash, and other concerns that can lead to instability long after we leave.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 06:39 PM   #291
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
 
a_unique_person's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I saw that the US and the UK are giving Ukraine longer range rockets. This should expand their range to about 40 miles. There are rockets for the system that can travel about 190 miles but Ukraine isn't getting those. Still 40 miles could be a game changer.
That enough to get the artillery.
__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.
Everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
“Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos
a_unique_person is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 06:43 PM   #292
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
 
a_unique_person's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
RUssian morale is not so great either.

But it;s clear you want to basically give Putin what he wants. Appeasement alway works so well...
No. I didn't say that.
__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.
Everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
“Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos
a_unique_person is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 08:41 PM   #293
tyr_13
Penultimate Amazing
 
tyr_13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 17,156
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And these days I think even the F-35 logistics chain may be cheaper than the A-10's. Sourcing obsolete electronics is no easy thing. Buying parts is sets of ten is a lot more expensive than buying them in sets of a hundred. Or a thousand.
Appropriately enough, Boeing just delivered the first set of modernized replacement wings for the A-10. The current order is 50 wing sets and a max of iirc 117.

That's a billion dollar contract.
__________________
Circled nothing is still nothing.
"Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel
Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong
tyr_13 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 08:58 PM   #294
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 25,628
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
That enough to get the artillery.
Well, it can let the howitzers continue their artillery duel and the MRLS and (whatever the British system is) to go after Russian logistics and formations before they get to the FEBA (I may be dating myself with that term).
__________________
Fight like a Ukrainian.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 09:35 PM   #295
BobTheCoward
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 22,424
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
According to the BBC, the messaging from the Ukrainian government has taken a turn towards being more pessimistic (and perhaps more realistic )



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

The BBC are saying that after they have finished in Donbas, then the Russians will switch to Kharkiv. IIRC a couple of months ago I linked to a CNN video where a retired US general said it was inevitable that Russia would seize, and hold, everything East of the Dnieper river. At the time I thought he was being ridiculously pessimistic, now I'm not so sure.

For all the talk of Russia taking heavy casualties, having low morale and having to resort to using ancient equipment, they seem to be advancing inexorably. Maybe their losses are being vastly overestimated, maybe their reserves run far, far deeper than first assumed, maybe they're much better at regrouping and re-equipping units or a combination of all three, but they seem to be getting more, not less, effective.
I think the main driver is the operation.

There were two questions

1) are they capable of completing the occupation of the already supportive Eastern region and slowly expand from there while suffering casualties against an enemy with less resources

2) Can they launch a US style rapids assault.

People thought the answer was yes to both. It turns out the answer to 2 was no. But 1 is still true.

NATO was probably scared of two. But now that two is off the table, that is great news. But one is maybe not that hard to achieve.
BobTheCoward is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 09:46 PM   #296
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 18,306
there comes a point of diminishing returns, when it might make a lot more sense for Ukraine weaken Russia to the point that they are boxed in, and leave them there to run out of food and supplies.
For 8 years Ukraine did okay (with western help) without the Eastern regions, and it can do so again.
Reconquering them is not urgently required, IMO, not at any cost.
__________________
"When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me."

- Emo Philips
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 10:25 PM   #297
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 25,628
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
there comes a point of diminishing returns, when it might make a lot more sense for Ukraine weaken Russia to the point that they are boxed in, and leave them there to run out of food and supplies.
For 8 years Ukraine did okay (with western help) without the Eastern regions, and it can do so again.
Reconquering them is not urgently required, IMO, not at any cost.
There's a lot of sense to this if the Ukrainians keep up the pressure but maybe not go on the offensive. They could kill their way out of this. Strong resistance at the FEBA and long range fires killing Russians in the rear, they could get to a point of the Germans on the Western Front in WWII or Russia in 1917 and the army collapses (or in Germany's case gets so near collapse they end the war).

Let Europe moving away from Russian energy have its effect, let the sanctions do their work on Russia's ability to replace material losses and keep a steady stream of coffins going back to Russia and their army could fall apart in the field.
__________________
Fight like a Ukrainian.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 27th May 2022, 10:59 PM   #298
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
there comes a point of diminishing returns, when it might make a lot more sense for Ukraine weaken Russia to the point that they are boxed in, and leave them there to run out of food and supplies.
Russia seems to have sorted out their logistics issues so it's much less likely that this will occur. Indeed, every day they hold on to territory is a day they can use to enhance their supply chains.

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
For 8 years Ukraine did okay (with western help) without the Eastern regions, and it can do so again.
Reconquering them is not urgently required, IMO, not at any cost.
Every day Russia holds onto territory is a day they can use for Russification. They can ship off civilians to who-knows-what fate and replace them with good Russians. This is the human version of salting the earth.
The Don is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 12:08 AM   #299
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
 
a_unique_person's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I think the main driver is the operation.



There were two questions



1) are they capable of completing the occupation of the already supportive Eastern region and slowly expand from there while suffering casualties against an enemy with less resources



2) Can they launch a US style rapids assault.



People thought the answer was yes to both. It turns out the answer to 2 was no. But 1 is still true.



NATO was probably scared of two. But now that two is off the table, that is great news. But one is maybe not that hard to achieve.
I really do wonder how much buyers remorse there will be in the East that supports Russia. There is so much destruction and Russia wont do any more than rebuild a village or two for propaganda purposes.
__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.
Everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
“Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos
a_unique_person is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 12:11 AM   #300
Aridas
Crazy Little Green Dragon
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,074
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Russia seems to have sorted out their logistics issues so it's much less likely that this will occur.
For what it's worth - I don't think that there's much evidence of that. In the east, in particular, they're still operating very close to territory that they've controlled for years. The big issues with logistics when it came to Kiev (and Izyum) have had a fair bit to do with very overextended and exposed supply lines. Popasna? Not the same at all. With that said, the Russian Popasna salient is, of course, still being fought over fiercely. Looks like Russia picked up another village to the south and lost a bit of what it had taken on the north of that, either way, in more recent news there.

The rough Russian casualty count for the day reported also jumped up, incidentally. Many days it seems to be roughly 200. The most recent looks like it was 600.

Elsewhere, there might be action in Kherson oblast, again? I saw a report that there's a limited attack right in the middle of their supply line to the northern edge of what they've taken over there.
__________________
So sayeth the crazy little dragon.
Aridas is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 03:14 AM   #301
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 43,373
Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Well, it can let the howitzers continue their artillery duel and the MRLS and (whatever the British system is) to go after Russian logistics and formations before they get to the FEBA (I may be dating myself with that term).
The British system is the US system.

Video of training using low power practice rockets.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 28th May 2022 at 03:16 AM.
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 04:05 AM   #302
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 51,938
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Old jets need even more maintenance.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And these days I think even the F-35 logistics chain may be cheaper than the A-10's. Sourcing obsolete electronics is no easy thing. Buying parts is sets of ten is a lot more expensive than buying them in sets of a hundred. Or a thousand.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc...h=12f47621685f

Cost per hour of flight time (not including the airframe) is $6k for the A10, and $28k for the F35. That's a pretty good indicator of their respective logistics needs.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 05:05 AM   #303
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,483
Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Well, it can let the howitzers continue their artillery duel and the MRLS and (whatever the British system is) to go after Russian logistics and formations before they get to the FEBA (I may be dating myself with that term).
As Swoop already said, the UK uses the US MLRS system. At one time they called it the 70 km sniper.

FEBA was coming into use when I was going out of the guard. I think they might still use it if only to get people to stop thinking about rear areas being safe. For those reading along, FEBA means "forward edge of the battle area". It was a replacement term for "front line" and part of a doctrine change in the US where combat was expected to take place anywhere and not just at a front line.

All of that said, the MLRS launchers may be a sore point with the Russians. The bigger, longer ranged rocket they can fire but we won't be seeing in Ukraine is called the Advanced Tactical Missile system. In the mid 80's it was supposed to be a replacement for the Lance missile, which was a short ranged and rather outdated nuke.

The project was cancelled in an effort to get an intermediate nuclear weapons treaty with the Russians. Building it at that time would have stopped the treaty from happening since there would be no good way to verify the presence of the missiles among the large number of MLRS launch platforms.

The ATM was revived after the treaty was signed but only as a non-nuclear weapon. The Russians regard this as the US having cheated on the treaty. The US also has claims that the Russians were cheating as well. And of course Trump pulled us out of the treaty rather than trying to fix what was broken.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 09:34 AM   #304
Lurch
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Ottawa
Posts: 2,211
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
I really do wonder how much buyers remorse there will be in the East that supports Russia. There is so much destruction and Russia wont do any more than rebuild a village or two for propaganda purposes.
A Potemkin village or two.
Lurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 11:30 AM   #305
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 17,888
I asked this 4 1/2 days ago:

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
...
I am wondering: All that wheat, before it goes on a cargo ship in Odesa harbor, got to the harbor via land transportation. (Some by river ship. perhaps). Is it impossible to transport by land to, say, Romania? Does Romania have a harbor that can deal with loads of wheat? (I know there is Transnistria in the way, so the land rout would have to take very significant detours)

Perhaps someone (Wendover Productions...) has already made a video about this.
Just now, I spotted an article on German public-law news source Tagesschau:
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/eu...porte-101.html

Title: "Romania is groaning under Ukraine transports"
Subtitle: "Romania's border crossings and harbors are at their limits: In the course of the Russian aggression, Ukraine reroutes its cereals via the neighboring country. But there they hardly manage to process the huge amounts."

So there is a problem with transport capacities - not in Ukraine, but in Romania: Freight truck traffic across the border has increased by 400%. There is a small harbor in the Danube delta, in the town Sulina - and 100 ships with loads of Ukrainian wheat are currently waiting to enter the canal from Sulina to the open sea. Neglected Sulina harbor used to be prepared to process only 3 or 4 ships - per day! So on to the larger harbor of Constanta: Rail tracks are in bad shape there: They had 700 abandoned freight cars blocking tracks, by now they were able to remove half of those, but the rest is in such disrepair, or even heavily overgrown with vegetation, that it was not possible to remove them yet.

Since mid-May, Ukraine has been able to export 240,000 tons of wheat via Constanta - which is about 1% of the wheat currently in storage Ukraine (25 million tons), and in about 6 weeks, the summer harvest will add another 40 million tons.

So there is an urgent job for the EU to do, now: Repair and expand capacities in Romania, provide trucks, rail cars, ships, and get as much wheat onto the Black Sea as soon as possible.
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 06:41 PM   #306
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,405
Everyone really should read today's update from ISW:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back. . . .

Evidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far. Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines. ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR’s report, but commentary by Russian milbloggers offers some circumstantial support for it. Russian milblogger Alexander Zhychkovskiy criticized the Russian military command’s disregard for reservists on the deprioritized Zaporizhia Oblast front. Zhychkovskiy reported that Russian commanders trapped lightly-equipped infantry units in areas of intense Ukrainian artillery fire without significant artillery support and did not rotate other units through those areas to relieve them. Zhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen. Another milblogger, Alexander Khodarkovsky, said that Russian commanders are not sending reinforcements in a timely matter, preventing Russian forces from resting between ground assaults. [notes omitted; bolding original]
Severodonetsk seems to be turning into Putin's Stalingrad.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz

Last edited by SpitfireIX; 28th May 2022 at 07:04 PM. Reason: tpyo
SpitfireIX is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 07:42 PM   #307
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
 
a_unique_person's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
you don't think that there is artillery going the other way too?

It's war, how else do you think they are going to do it?

The Russians have more. That's why Zelensky has been asking for more.
__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.
Everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
“Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos
a_unique_person is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 07:44 PM   #308
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
 
a_unique_person's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Everyone really should read today's update from ISW:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back. . . .

Evidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far. Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines. ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR’s report, but commentary by Russian milbloggers offers some circumstantial support for it. Russian milblogger Alexander Zhychkovskiy criticized the Russian military command’s disregard for reservists on the deprioritized Zaporizhia Oblast front. Zhychkovskiy reported that Russian commanders trapped lightly-equipped infantry units in areas of intense Ukrainian artillery fire without significant artillery support and did not rotate other units through those areas to relieve them. Zhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen. Another milblogger, Alexander Khodarkovsky, said that Russian commanders are not sending reinforcements in a timely matter, preventing Russian forces from resting between ground assaults. [notes omitted; bolding original]
Severodonetsk seems to be turning into Putin's Stalingrad.

Putin can keep a lid on the losses to his own side for only so long. People were already protesting when the war began but Putin suppressed it using brutality. With so many dead, I don't know how can keep a cap on the coming blockback.
__________________
Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.
Everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
“Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos
a_unique_person is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th May 2022, 08:26 PM   #309
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,483
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Haha oh wow. Russia is an even bigger fan of rocket artillery than the US. They have more systems than the US does, including systems that predate and post-date the development of MLRS. They are the progenitors of the SCUD missile. But somehow the US is the villain for developing its own rocket artillery, similar to the various rocket artillery systems the Russians have developed?
I see comprehension on your part is not strong here. Read what I wrote again.

US a villain? No. Trump a moron? Yes. And his moronic decisions are working against US interests. We are going to see the Russians exploit the lack of a treaty and Trump is the moron that ended the treaty. That was the point that flew over your head.

Beyond that, Russian rocket artillery not covered by the intermediate range missile treaty is irrelevant. That stuff cannot be used to launch nukes. Russian missiles that were covered are also not an issue at the moment since they don't currently have them. Scud without a nuke was a bit of crap anyway since it was not accurate. The poor mans V2.

US MLRS launchers are a problem because they can fire both normal rocket artillery and the ATM, which was capable of carrying a nuke. That does not mean we should not give MLRS launchers to Ukraine. It just means we have to deal with the consequences of what Russia will claim about them. The main consequences being that, (1) Russia will use it as an excuse to develop and, if they can afford it, deploy new intermediate range nukes. And (2) Russia will use it as an excuse to claim the US is using Ukraine as a proxy to threaten Russia. If we still had a treaty Russia would not be able to use this for justification of what it wants to do.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 02:24 AM   #310
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 29,378
The tabloids are reporting that Putin is dead and that a body double is being used. I don't believe this but when he does pop his clogs, I've no doubt they will keep it secret for a long time.

Quote:
An intelligence source said it was likely Putin's recent appearances in public had been pre-recorded.

Alternatively, he could have already died with a body double taking his place.

The source told the Daily Star: "Putin is very ill and when he dies his death will be kept secret for weeks, if not months.

“There is also the possibility that he is already dead. It’s impossible to know.
SUN (I know, I know).
__________________
The parting on the Left
Is now parting on the Right ~ Pete Townshend

Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 03:07 AM   #311
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
 
Craig4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 25,628
Originally Posted by Doubt View Post

All of that said, the MLRS launchers may be a sore point with the Russians.
We have to get past the escalation concern when it comes to providing conventional weapons to Ukraine. That scenario is over. The West keeps wringing its hand over what we should give them next. After much angst, we give it to them (S-300s, APCs, tanks, howitzers) and then no escalation. There's nothing behind Putin's red lines. If we're going to arm the Ukrainians, we should arm them to win not arm them to stalemate.
__________________
Fight like a Ukrainian.
Craig4 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 04:18 AM   #312
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 43,373
Russia has rejected accusations that its invasion of Ukraine has created serious threats to global food security, instead blaming Western sanctions.

Quote:
The attempts of the West to attribute all troubles to the special military operation and accuse Russia of blocking foreign ships in the ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are absolutely groundless,
Quote:
The main catalyst for the existing negative trends was the anti-Russian sanctions of the West, which led to a rupture of ties in the field of global logistics and transport infrastructure,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 04:26 AM   #313
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 51,938
Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
US MLRS launchers are a problem because they can fire both normal rocket artillery and the ATM, which was capable of carrying a nuke. That does not mean we should not give MLRS launchers to Ukraine. It just means we have to deal with the consequences of what Russia will claim about them. The main consequences being that, (1) Russia will use it as an excuse to develop and, if they can afford it, deploy new intermediate range nukes. And (2) Russia will use it as an excuse to claim the US is using Ukraine as a proxy to threaten Russia. If we still had a treaty Russia would not be able to use this for justification of what it wants to do.
I think this analysis is completely wrong. First off, Russia is already claiming the US is using Ukraine to threaten Russia, even without any MLRS. Having the treaty would do nothing on this front. They don’t need additional excuses, they have those in abundance already.

Second, Russia cannot afford to develop and deploy new intermediate range nukes. They can barely afford their current arsenal.

Do you remember Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars)? We never got a working system in place, but even so, it was devastating to the USSR. Why? Because even trying to keep up with it helped bankrupt them. Even the threat of a missile defense system required pouring resources into countering it that they couldn’t afford. Russia wants this treaty precisely because they don’t want to spend the money to develop a new class of nukes, because they can’t afford to now either.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 05:41 AM   #314
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 60,194
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Everyone really should read today's update from ISW:
But Russia has solved its supply problems and is advancing inexorably now! /s
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 06:23 AM   #315
Captain_Swoop
Penultimate Amazing
 
Captain_Swoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 43,373
Erdogan maintains opposition to Sweden and Finland joining Nato

Quote:
For as long as Tayyip Erdogan is the head of the Republic of Turkey, we definitely cannot say 'yes' to countries which support terrorism entering Nato,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
Captain_Swoop is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 07:22 AM   #316
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,483
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I think this analysis is completely wrong. First off, Russia is already claiming the US is using Ukraine to threaten Russia, even without any MLRS. Having the treaty would do nothing on this front. They don’t need additional excuses, they have those in abundance already.

Second, Russia cannot afford to develop and deploy new intermediate range nukes. They can barely afford their current arsenal.

Do you remember Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars)? We never got a working system in place, but even so, it was devastating to the USSR. Why? Because even trying to keep up with it helped bankrupt them. Even the threat of a missile defense system required pouring resources into countering it that they couldn’t afford. Russia wants this treaty precisely because they don’t want to spend the money to develop a new class of nukes, because they can’t afford to now either.
Ah, that last paragraph. A hallmark of BS thinking by people that were not actually paying attention to the Soviet Union but love to credit Reagan with things he did not actually accomplish.

My favorite part is when Reagan gets credited with Jimmy Carter's defense build up.

About the only "counter" developed for the SDI was maneuverable warheads for atmospheric movement after re-entry. The US was doing the same thing at the same time. The Russian effort did not actually cost that much and had very little to do with SDI project. Meanwhile nothing was being done about boost phase or apogee interception. But since the SDI was horse crap to start with, they really did not have too much to worry about.

The Soviet Union was not "bankrupted". Their economy did not in anyway fit with how the non-communist world worked. The ruble was worth whatever the politburo decided it was worth and the costs of everything inside the country also reflected political decisions. Their economy was unsustainable from the start. Nothing done on our end made it collapse. That was going to happen anyway. The end happened when some guy named Gorbachev decided to get serious about fulfilling some of the promises the Soviet Union was founded under. That just exposed the rot in the system.

In the mean time, the Soviets still controlled valuable commodities needed to build weapons in the west. As an example, titanium needed to build high tech 80s era jet fighters came from the Ukraine. If we were actually going to "bankrupt" the Soviets we would have needed to stop feeding them money to build our weapons.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 07:24 AM   #317
Cosmic Yak
Philosopher
 
Cosmic Yak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 5,957
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Erdogan maintains opposition to Sweden and Finland joining Nato



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
Rather ironic, considering Turkey's support for Islamic State. Perhaps Erdogan should remove Turkey from NATO.
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/F...0405-SD001.pdf
__________________
Fortuna Faveat Fatuis

'Of course it can be OK to mistreat people.'- shuttlt
Cosmic Yak is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 07:56 AM   #318
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 26,686
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The tabloids are reporting that Putin is dead and that a body double is being used. I don't believe this but when he does pop his clogs, I've no doubt they will keep it secret for a long time.

SUN (I know, I know).
They are also saying that he has 3 years to live and 5 years to live and had 5 years left to live in 2015 so it looks like they have access to about as much accurate information as we do.

I think it is clear that he is losing his grip, possibly exacerbated by health issues, and that is often terminal for someone in his position. And it's also clear that he's not in good health, which itself is often terminal for strongman leaders.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare
https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt

Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 09:24 AM   #319
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 60,194
Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
Rather ironic, considering Turkey's support for Islamic State. Perhaps Erdogan should remove Turkey from NATO.
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/F...0405-SD001.pdf
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th May 2022, 09:32 AM   #320
Cosmic Yak
Philosopher
 
Cosmic Yak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 5,957
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.
You know, I had a colleague who used that particular cliché about Islamic State. I asked about the Yazidi sex slaves, and he excused that too.
Are you actually saying ISIS are freedom fighters?
__________________
Fortuna Faveat Fatuis

'Of course it can be OK to mistreat people.'- shuttlt
Cosmic Yak is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:11 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.