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#321 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 60,194
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I'm saying every movement has its bad apples, and nobody is perfect. It's not like America doesn't have its own share of problematic types. Why would Turkey want to be in a mutual defense alliance with nations that provide aid and comfort to enemies of the Turkish state?
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There is no Antimemetics Division. |
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#322 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,405
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Perun has a great new video about the hows and whys of corruption in the Russian military.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4 |
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"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." --Carl Schurz |
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#323 | ||||||
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 26,686
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Ha, I was about to post that.
![]() if you prefer the embedded version
From the comments, and something that a couple of posters in this thread might like in particular - the rest will need the subtitles as it's in Finnish. A Finnish Intelligence colonel describing his views (in 2018) why Russia does things the way it does and looking at "strategic culture" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw or embedded
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#324 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,074
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To poke at two things that may be of potential interest -
First, I've seen the claim that hospitals in Crimea are no longer accepting civilian patients because they're too overloaded with wounded Russian military forces. I obviously can't confirm such, but I can't really say that it's implausible. Second, apparently many of the military contracts for the Russians will end in about 2 days. How this will actually affect Russia's forces in practice is hard to say, of course, but we can hope that a large portion of that group will be able to use the opportunity to get out of there. |
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#325 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Detroit
Posts: 7,621
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I would never encourage a time-expired soldier, or large groups of such soldiers, to shoot their officers and skedaddle. The Mother and Father Land would weep tears of grief -- yes, and honk snot of sorrow -- at the ingratitude of its children.
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If you would learn a man's character, give him authority. If you would ruin a man's character, let him seize power. |
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#326 |
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
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They didn't solve anything. They are just shorter and away from raiders.
The logistics of getting artillery shells to artillery that is behind the lines is much simpler. Russia also had the advantage that Ukraine isn't randomly leveling Russian cities while Russia is quite happy to level anything Ukrainian, even cities it is supposedly taking for it's separatist allies. It can also moved materiel around safely in Russian territory. The Ukrainians don't have that luxury. |
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos |
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#327 |
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 44,432
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Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity. Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos |
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#328 |
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Out back preparing the bunker for the next Civil War
Posts: 49,400
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Counting the days to Civil War II. |
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#329 |
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 46,496
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"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes... Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes." ![]() |
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#330 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 17,156
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Circled nothing is still nothing. "Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong |
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#331 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 51,938
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That is a solution.
But I wouldn't depend on that being the only improvement. One of the claims I've seen about their logistics problems in the north is that a lot of units sent to Belarus for "exercises" sold off a bunch of their diesel fuel, because that's just the sort of corruption that's endemic, and besides, they're only in Belarus for exercises. Just leave the tank parked, claim you drove it around in circles, and nobody will care where the fuel went. They didn't actually need it anyways. Until they did, and they didn't have it, but it was too late at that point. Well, now that they KNOW they're in a war, selling off fuel that's supposed to be sent to the front is probably harder to get away with. |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#332 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 18,306
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I very much liked the Finnish Lecture about Russia's strategic culture.
It's a clear authoritarian feature, very much in evidence in the US Right, that lying for the Cause is what you DO, and that your supporters will admire you for getting away with lying and cheating in the furtherance of the cause. |
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"When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me." - Emo Philips |
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#333 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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Yes, this are exactly the points I was trying to make when I said that the Russians seemed to have addressed their logistics issues.
The Russians seem to have learned that they are incapable of fighting a mobile, "intelligent", war on multiple fronts and have completely changed their tactics and switched to an attritional war on a single front. As you point out, Russia have no qualms about turning towns and cities into rubble and killing thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of civilians. It's not pretty, it's not clever, but it is brutally effective - and more importantly, it's very difficult to stop. ![]() |
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#334 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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The UKs MoD assessment is that Russia is sustaining devastating losses:
Quote:
Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be stopping Russian forces from levelling cities, slaughtering civilians and slowly taking over the rubble.
Quote:
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#335 |
Crazy Little Green Dragon
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: East Coast, US
Posts: 9,074
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To poke at some changes...
Ukrainian forces might be beginning to withdraw from Severodonetsk. Doesn't mean that they're actually giving up the city yet, of course. Russia's still trying to focus on taking it, or at least the rubble of it. The caution that Russia's apparently employing when it comes to their vehicles there now suggests that Russia's running out of vehicles, though, too, much as forces are likely continuing to be diverted towards the city, such as from Lyman. Ukraine's counteroffensive east of Kherson apparently continues, supposedly mostly with gains that have driven Russians back to areas that are much less defensible, but Russia may also have successfully counterattacked and retaken a couple settlements. Still, that counterattack might have cost them Snihurivka? Maybe? Fog of war is very much still in play on that front and the forces involved seem to be smaller and more mobile to my understanding, so newly reported changes in territory should be taken with notable caution in multiple ways. Ukraine's counteroffensive near Izyum continues as well and might have taken back a settlement to the south. Russia's advances from Popasna seem to have stalled on all fronts. A little to the north of that on the eastern front, Ukraine's apparently claiming to have retaken Toshkivka. |
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So sayeth the crazy little dragon. |
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#336 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 26,686
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Similar theme to your post and riffing on some of the comments about Russia's ability to advance behind artillery
Part of a thread with far more reasoning in the others - this is just a key takeaway. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/...SmgWaaHnaZZrKw
Quote:
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#337 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,686
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If Russia is going to dig in and spend the winter in Ukraine, do they have the supply lines to keep that number of men fed and taken care of?
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Dominus vo-bisque'em Et cum spear a tu-tu, oh! Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/ Parody: http://karireport.blogspot.com/ Poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/ |
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#338 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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If they keep to the areas they currently have under control - maybe - the supply lines are comparatively short and aren't exposed to Ukrainian attack.
If you were looking it in a bleakly comic way, every day there are fewer Russian mouths to feed, which makes the logistical challenge smaller. In other news: The Russians are reportedly planning to commit a further 70 BTGs primarily consisting of newly trained recruits with around 30 days worth of training. These BTGs are due to arrive on the front line in by the end of June. |
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#339 |
JREF Kid
Tagger
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 8,479
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I wonder what more could the world do to help Ukraine? Long-range missiles would be useful. They could be used against installations inside Russia, taking the war to the invader. But what would be the effect of such an escalation?
Maybe it's time to take a risk. Appeasing a tyrant like Putin never ends well. |
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"Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan |
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#340 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 22,424
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#341 |
Quixoticist
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,127
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Those are quite the numbers:
Quote:
I'd love to see Crimea, Donbas, and Transnitra cleansed of the Russian occupiers, which I think is not impossible in the long term. I think Russia has rendered itself somewhat toothless in the course of the current fiasco. Perhaps wishful thinking. |
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"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde |
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#342 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 18,306
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The fundamental problem Russia has in Ukraine is that there is no "win", at least none that anyone fighting in Ukraine can achieve. No matter what they do, the "win" happens when Putin says it does, and the hero will be whoever he selects.
Soldiers in the field have literally no higher ambition than to survive, which means all effort goes into ass-covering and looking out for no.1. |
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"When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord doesn't work that way so I stole one and asked Him to forgive me." - Emo Philips |
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#343 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 26,686
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https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/s...h-BfJypiX_y-lQ
Interesting thread on this. TLDR. Now the war is ongoing, how much effort will Western countries' defence ministries put into providing publicly available information that might actually help those in the Russian regime by bypassing their own intelligence sources if those don't want to report bad news? |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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#344 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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I'm guessing that's why they're reportedly making extraordinary efforts to capture Severodonetsk, to be able to have claimed to have "de-Nazified" the whole of the Lukansk oblast - a victory of sorts.
I'm sure they would like to have added Donesk, or indeed the whole of the south of Ukraine, but Luhansk may be enough for now. |
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#345 |
JREF Kid
Tagger
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 8,479
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"Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan |
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#346 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 22,424
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#347 |
JREF Kid
Tagger
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 8,479
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__________________
"Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan |
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#348 |
New Blood
Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 12
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And what does "winning" look like for Russia? Ukraine finished as a nation state? As that's their ultimate aim. And what does this "accepting Russia's win" (if such a thing ever occurs) do to help Ukraine right now, which was the question.
This isn't some medieval battle when only one side will be left standing on the battlefield and the other side will all be dead or have run away. It's a very complicated modern conflict between nation states fighting for multiple objectives, with millions of citizens they can replenish their armies with. Unless one state is left incapable of governing it's land and can no longer form an army, then there is not going to be any clear cut win. |
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#349 |
Just the right amount of cowbell
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Well past Hither, looking for Yon
Posts: 6,544
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"In times of war, we need warriors. But this isn't a war." - Phil Plaitt |
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#350 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 22,424
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#351 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 5,957
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#352 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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You're right that there's little or no chance/risk that everyone will be killed or will have run away (though I suppose that there is a slim chance that all Russian forces could be withdrawn to where they were prior to the invasion - or possibly even further). Any resolution would have to be achieved at the negotiating table.
My concern is that Russia have repeatedly demonstrated that they are perfectly willing to tear up any previous treaty if they feel that it's in their interest to do so which will make for a very tricky calculation for Ukraine. IMO it means that Ukraine trading land for security isn't a viable option. OTOH ATM Russia wouldn't accept any terms which would leave Ukraine as a functioning state. |
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#353 |
Master Poster
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Belgium
Posts: 2,873
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I am not encouraging Russian aggression in Ukraine (and aggression there really is).
I believe that Russia was, around 2014, unfairly persecuted by Ukraine and its (much more powerful) Western allies, in the form of heavy sanctions, economic blockades and so on:
Quote:
Russia then misreacted by invading (much later, when it felt powerful enough, and sufficiently supported by China). There is a difference between trying to understand Russian psychology on the one hand, and supporting whatever Russia does on the other. I believe the presence of Russian troops where they are not welcomed by the local population (near Kharkiv for example) is not legitimate. I also believe that this war is a consequence of sanction policy by the West, much more than possible NATO expansion. The West has developed a habit of imposing economic sanctions to Russia, China (think about Huawei for example) and many other countries, which generate anger, more military spending in targeted countries, and (in the case of Ukraine) finally military action. The solution to this crisis is therefore (in my view): (1) Crimea belongs to Russsia (accepted by all). (2) The two Donbass republics are independent (accepted by all). (3) Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, Ukraine remains independent and chooses its alliances the way it likes. (4) No more sanctions and censorship (this also applies to the West). It would be most unfortunate that 100,000 people have to die before these simple ideas are finally understood, implemented and accepted as correct. |
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#354 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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I agree with all of those - apart from numbers (1), (2) and (4).
To allow those would be to simply gift Russia all of their pre-invasion aims, allow them both time and money to re-arm and then have to repeat this all over again in 10 or 15 years time when Russia decides that it needs control over the whole of Ukraine's coast and control over Crimea's water and energy supplies. |
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#355 |
Master Poster
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Belgium
Posts: 2,873
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So it looks like you disagree with 75% of what I said.
But you did not explain how you would quickly stop this war, in practical terms. I believe that the Russians would become much less hostile and potentially dangerous if they were not constantly attacked and persecuted by means of sanctions (when there is no "hot" war). The naive ideas:
Quote:
In order to stop this war quickly, it is imperative that the West reflects about their mistakes and strives to correct them. |
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#356 |
Philosopher
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Niceville, Florida, USA
Posts: 5,405
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Begging the question of whether stopping the war quickly is or should be the most important goal.
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"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." --Carl Schurz |
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#357 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,585
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It has been pointed out to you repeatedly that Russia would not HAVE any sanctions had it not illegally invaded and annexed Crimea following a North-Korean style 'referendum' and had it not committed this vile act of aggression.
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#358 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 34,676
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Yeah, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth to allow them to crush the Russian army, take the fight to Russia, cripple the Russian economy so that they cannot prosecute this war, and won't be in a position to start the next one. Have you not been paying attention to Russian actions in Crimea, Georgia, Syria, Chechnya and a host of other places ? To portray Russia as a persecuted innocent is flat out wrong. Sanctions were applied in response to Russian aggression, not the other way around. |
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#359 |
Quixoticist
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: ON Canada
Posts: 5,127
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Actually you did not explain how Russia's capitulation and withdrawal from Ukraine wouldn't be the quickest way to stop this war. I mean, considering they had no legal or moral right to invade in the first place.
Your belief defies fact and reason. The sanctions are only beginning to match the level of their aggression. They are criminals on the world stage, and they deserve to be held accountable. |
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"Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future." - Oscar Wilde |
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#360 |
Master Poster
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Belgium
Posts: 2,873
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I quote again:
Quote:
This doesn't seem North-Korean at all to me. As far as I know, Ukraine and the West have shown very little interest for true democracy in Crimea and in the Donbass. |
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