Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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theprestige

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theprestige
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steenkh said:
Perhaps we could discuss the lack of an Ukrainian offensive instead indulging in disgusting fantasies?
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The way I see it, we're just killing time while we wait for the counteroffensive to kick off.

But if you want to discuss the conflagration in Sevastopol, the Ukrainians building miniaturized V-1s with improved pulse-jets and modern guidance systems, or the depth and extent of Moscow fortifications in and around Ukraine, all those topics are yours for the discussing. Just type the words and press "Submit".

 
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steenkh said:
Perhaps we could discuss the lack of an Ukrainian offensive instead indulging in disgusting fantasies?
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What lack of an Ukrainian offensive? Did they mention a date to you that they neglected to tell me? Just wondering...
 
steenkh said:
Perhaps we could discuss the lack of an Ukrainian offensive instead indulging in disgusting fantasies?
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Jimbo07 said:
What lack of an Ukrainian offensive? Did they mention a date to you that they neglected to tell me? Just wondering...
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I gather it is still muddy.

Ukraine will do it when Ukraine does it. But it seems logical to wait for the mud season to end. The tweetstream I linked to suggests that the mud is worse than normal this year and is extending later into spring that most years.
 
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There also has to be some calculation of how long to wait for all/more of the donated equipment to arrive and be ready (trained crews, logistics, etc).

(Broadly ...) e.g. Rush in Leopards piecemeal vs wait too long and the Russians get too prepared.

Some sources claim the counteroffensive has already started, kind of a "soft launch"; either way they seem to be getting ready.
 
There was a report a few months back that Ukrainian officers were meeting with NATO officers in Germany to game out various scenarios. I'm pretty confident that Ukraine is already conducting operations to "shape" the battlefield for further operations.
 
theprestige said:
The appeal to international law is a red herring, though. The only thing that matters in this is the laws and customs of whichever country has jurisdiction. Right now it's Moscow's laws and customs. I don't see that changing, but arth is welcome to give it a go if he thinks "international law" should take precedence. Personally, I'd settle for Ukrainian law. But I'd also settle for someone just barging into his office and shooting him in the face.
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To be clear, I am referring to an International War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague.

You know, like the one Saddam should have got but didn't.
 
arthwollipot said:
To be clear, I am referring to an International War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague.

You know, like the one Saddam should have got but didn't.
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Given how Putin is actively sheltering war criminals from that same tribunal and that Russia, like the US, the Philippines and Sudan withdrew its membership from that body (Iraq never even joined at all) I do feel that is not as guaranteed.

Though I agree with earlier posters that by the time Russia will need to make such a decision Putin will have fallen from a window / been hit by a freak car / has retired to a nice country house out of all communication.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
Given how Putin is actively sheltering war criminals from that same tribunal and that Russia, like the US, the Philippines and Sudan withdrew its membership from that body (Iraq never even joined at all) I do feel that is not as guaranteed.

Though I agree with earlier posters that by the time Russia will need to make such a decision Putin will have fallen from a window / been hit by a freak car / has retired to a nice country house out of all communication.
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I can't disagree with either statement. While I would like to see Putin come to trial for his crimes, I can't say that I expect that it will ever actually happen.
 
arthwollipot said:
I can't disagree with either statement. While I would like to see Putin come to trial for his crimes, I can't say that I expect that it will ever actually happen.
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I agree. Bringing the leaders of large and important countries to justice sends a dangerous precedent.

The US president or other Western leader could find themselves in the same situation if the tide of international opinion were to suddenly turn.
 
The Don said:
I agree. Bringing the leaders of large and important countries to justice sends a dangerous precedent.

The US president or other Western leader could find themselves in the same situation if the tide of international opinion were to suddenly turn.
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Indeed.
 
CNN said:
A former US Marine, Cooper “Harris” Andrews, 26, was killed on the outskirts of Bakhmut late last week, according to his mother and colleagues in Ukraine.
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Andrews worked for an activist group known as the Resistance Committee, according to their social media statements. They said he was killed assisting the evacuation of civilians from the city. Andrews left Cleveland, Ohio in November and joined the Foreign Legion in Ukraine, a group of foreign fighters helping the Ukrainian military. His contract ended in March, Mrs. Andrews said, and he decided to stay on.
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/01/europe/ukraine-former-us-marine-killed-intl/index.html
 
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jeremyp said:
Sorry to pick on you, because you are not the first person to memorialise an individual on a thread like this. In fact, I've probably done it myself.

I find it interesting that we do this. Hundreds of people are dying in Ukraine every day because of this war. Why is one non-Ukrainian worthy of highlighting in this thread?
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Because, for most people, putting a face and a name on a tragedy makes it more emotionally compelling. There is a saying attributed to Stalin that, when one person dies, it is a tragedy; when a million people die, it's a statistic. Human interest stories like this keep the numbers from just being numbers.
 
jeremyp said:
Sorry to pick on you, because you are not the first person to memorialise an individual on a thread like this. In fact, I've probably done it myself.

I find it interesting that we do this. Hundreds of people are dying in Ukraine every day because of this war. Why is one non-Ukrainian worthy of highlighting in this thread?
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I don't think of it as "memorialise", but I felt it was worth noting an American volunteered to serve in Ukraine when there's a fair percentage of Americans not even supporting the war, and made the ultimate sacrifice rather than return to the relative safety of home. YMMV, of course.
 
jeremyp said:
Sorry to pick on you, because you are not the first person to memorialise an individual on a thread like this. In fact, I've probably done it myself.



I find it interesting that we do this. Hundreds of people are dying in Ukraine every day because of this war. Why is one non-Ukrainian worthy of highlighting in this thread?
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For Ukrainians there is no choice of being a part of the war. To choose to risk your life is of note.
 
Breaking news: Russia reports a drone attack on the Kremlin. They're calling it a terrorist attack, and claim it was an attempt on Putin's life. Considering early in the war the Orcs were trying to kill Zelensky, that's very cheeky of them.
 
Ian Osborne said:
Breaking news: Russia reports a drone attack on the Kremlin. They're calling it a terrorist attack, and claim it was an attempt on Putin's life. Considering early in the war the Orcs were trying to kill Zelensky, that's very cheeky of them.
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From the story...

The Kremlin also noted the incident had come shortly before Russia's 9 May Victory Day parade, which foreign dignitaries were expected to attend.
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Who? From where? Why?
 
Makes little sense as attack on Putin. Damaged roof during the parade could be nice touch though. Also it seems to explode near the flag when it flies by .. it's not a direct hit. Damage to the roof (or even the flag) seem to be minimal. Might be the plan. Might be failure to achieve it.
The drone looks pretty large. Not 400km range large though.
Either way, people responsible for the parade security won't sleep well this week.
 
If this one small drone serves to interfere in some noticeable way with the May 9th events then the propaganda benefits are well worth while.
 
There seem to be two people dressed in white climbing up the dome as the drone explodes. An odd coincidence or were they expecting to catch it?
 
Shrinker said:
There seem to be two people dressed in white climbing up the dome as the drone explodes. An odd coincidence or were they expecting to catch it?
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Surely this vid wasn't staged? Or photoshopped? Those honest and self-respecting Russians would not do such a thing, would they?
 
How dare those dastardly Ukrainians attack poor innocent Putin.
Why, innocent civilians might be hurt. And given how Glorious Mother Russia is only attacking military targets in a clean police operation....

Seriously though, I doubt the intended target was Putler himself, but it does show that the Russian capital might not be as much out of the firing line as propaganda suggests.
I suspect it will not help with the image of an all mighty leader that is broadcast on Russian tv.
 
A commentator once opined that while the loss of life from the Twin Towers was of course far more of a major issue, the hit on the Pentagon, while having a much lower causality count, was far more worrisome in a pure strategic sense because when the enemy hits your castle keep, the strategic hold, where you keep the big players, that means something. In the military it's the difference between a "hard" and a "soft" target.

Maybe something psychologically similar to that is in play here. A modern warfare counting coup, a "I can get to you if I try" message.
 
Meanwhile, use this helpful graphic to visualize Moscow's progress in the occupation of Ukraine. The investment of Bakhmut is highlighted to give a sense of the scale of Moscow's success.
 

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Dr.Sid said:
Also note it's hand held camera, and it was published by Russia.
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I heard on the World Service that a US official suggested taking it with "a shaker of salt"
 
I disagree on the handheld bit, I think that motion is the result of somebody filming it off a computer monitor.
 
Shrinker said:
I disagree on the handheld bit, I think that motion is the result of somebody filming it off a computer monitor.
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Yes, that's feasible. There are reflections toward the right hand side which I thought were because the video was taken through a window, but they could also be reflections on a monitor screen.
 
If it was taken through a window, it would have been an office in the (closed) GUM shopping mall, apparently. Just some dude sitting up there after hours, idly filming the incomplete parade setup across the way.
 
It doesn't look it gets anywhere near the dome and it could just be small drone with a pyrotechnic charge inside. If it did actually start a fire, well it wouldn't be the first time some Russian stunt went wrong.
 
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