A Lucid Proposal For A Preliminary Test

I would like to apply for the preliminary test of the Paranormal Challenge. I have not yet submitted my formal application.

I would ask that I could perform the preliminary test being observed by a group such as The National Capital Area Skeptics (I have not met anyone involved with their organization and have never attended their meetings). If they conclude that I have succeeded, then we can negotiate for the terms and conditions of the actual test. This preliminary test should take less than an hour, and at the very least will give THCAS a change to conduct a tightly controlled experiment.

STATEMENT OF ABILITY: I will demonstrate the ability to read my wife’s thoughts via ESP symbols.

I propose the following testing criteria:

(This test is based on the protocols used in the Achau Nguyen test that can be viewed at csicop.org/specialarticles/nguyen.html . It will require a minimum of 6 observers, but more are welcome to participate.)

My wife and I will be separated, and then scanned with a metal detector. We will remove our shoes, socks and any jewelry, belts, etc. during this check for transmitting equipment. You may examine our ears and the inside of our mouths, also.

We can then be taken to separate rooms for the testing to begin.

Testing procedures for observers:

1. A set of fifty (50) ESP symbols will be used consisting of ten (10) each of the basic Rhine designs; star, circle, square, wavy lines and the cross.

2. Out of my presence, the symbols will be mixed up by one observer and they will place ten (10) symbols face down in an unmarked envelope. This will be repeated five (5) times so there will be a total of 5 unmarked envelopes with ten (10) symbols each.

3. A second observer will select one (1) of the envelopes and take it to the room where my wife is located.

4. A third observer will take the envelope and place the enclosed symbols face down on one side of a two-section card tray. This tray will be on a table and in plain view of all observers in the room. My wife will not make physical contact with the symbols at any time. I will have no contact with the symbols, envelopes or observers.

5. When my wife states that she is ready, a fourth observer will radio the word “sending” to a fifth observer in the room where I am located. The third observer will then turn over the first symbol and place it on the other side of the tray. (This will be done in plain view of all observers so that everyone can verify that only one (1) symbol is being turned over at a time, and that no switches are taking place.) When the symbol is turned over, my wife will stare at the symbol and attempt to transmit her thought to me. A sixth observer will write down the symbol being transmitted.

6. Upon receiving her thought, I will write the symbol down and the fifth observer will then radio back “received” to the fourth observer. The process will then repeat itself for a total of ten (10) times to use all of the symbols in the envelope.

7. Upon completion of the test, the sent and received symbols will be compared. All of the symbols and envelopes can be examined to verify that there were no more than fifty (50) symbols and that there were ten (10) copies of each.


Based on a Binomial Probabilities calculator (faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html), n=10 (number of tries), k= (number of correct symbols), p=.2 (% chance of getting it right) and q=.8 (% chance of getting it wrong).

The percentage chance of getting the number of symbols correct:
1 or more 89.26%
2 or more 62.42%
3 or more 32.22%
4 or more 12.09%
5 or more 3.28%
6 or more .64%
7 or more .086%
8 or more .0078%
9 or more .00042%
10 exactly lots of zeroes after the decimal point

The one factor not considered in this scenario is that each time a symbol is revealed, there is one less chance for that symbol to turn up again. However, for the method we’re using, I don’t think it will have a significant impact on the results. I would welcome input from a mathematician on how to figure those percentages as it is not in my field of expertise.

As a result, would the organization consider 6 correct symbols (6 chances in a thousand) a successful test? I would assume that 7 correct symbols (8 chances in 10,000) would be considered a success.

A few comments on the testing procedures:

We will not require any observers of our own to be at the initial testing. We prefer not to know anyone that will be involved. It can take place in a location of your choice that is in the Washington, DC area.

The test could be modified and use a sheet of 10 symbols instead of separate, random symbols, but that could be prone to accusations of collusion. By having the symbols shuffled and in an unknown order, there is no way that anyone will know beforehand which symbols will be sent. Using a random choice of 5 envelopes insures that a single person does not have control of the outcome.

No observer that is witnessing the symbols being revealed should be in contact with an observer that is witnessing the reception of the symbols. I would like to preserve the sterility of the testing procedures so that there can be no claim of collusion. I understood that results were compared after 3 attempts in the Achau Nguyen test, but I ask that no contact be made with the sets of observers until after the full test has been completed.

Unlike Mr. Nguyen, I will not require any type of caffeinated beverage. I will not emit any powerful energy nor will I attempt to put an image into anyone’s mind. Some ice water for my wife would be great, though.

I would like to use a Faraday Cage at a future demonstration to prove that no electronic signals are being sent or received by my wife or myself.

After reading the statements submitted by other claimants, I think that I have succinctly described the ability that will be demonstrated. Successful results under these tightly controlled conditions should be cogent evidence that I satisfied the preliminary test requirements stated in the Challenge Application. I welcome input on the testing criteria I have suggested.

Drew

Mental Professor-

First I would like to welcome you to the JREF forums.

Also, congratulations- as far as I've seen, that is the clearest statement of a protocol I have ever seen a potential applicant come up with on his own. You appear to be very reasonable and quite organized, and it looks like you've done your homework on the Challenge.

My only question is this- have you actually tested your ability, using this protocol? I ask because if you haven't, I recommend that you do before you apply. If you discover that you were mistaken, you'd save yourself a lot of time. I'm not implying that your ability doesn't exist, just that it might not. Still, it's your choice, and if you're confident in your abilities, you can certainly apply. (You don't need to send in a protocol with your application, that step comes after. You just need to come up with a two or three sentence description of your claim and what will constitute a positive or negative result. See the FAQ and challenge rules.)

Again, welcome, and good luck with your application!

Edit- fixed typo.

Q: Have you demonstrated this ability to yourself, your wife, and an outside observer in a similar (but not necessarily as rigorous) way? Or are you simply presenting the first-ever coherent protocol just to get our hopes up? Like captors who break the spirits of their hostages by offering them a ray of hope and then yanking it away?

- Timothy

Welcome, Mental Professor.

I shall watch your progress with interest, please let us know when you've submitted your application.

I too would be interested to know if you have self-trialled under the conditions you state.

Hello Drew (Mental Professor),


welcome to the JREF Forum.

Like the Admiral, I would like to know if you did any testing on this? How did you do it? What results did you obtain?

Would you feel comfortable with the complete "Achau Nguyen Protocol"? (For interested folks: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28936 post#12) This would save some time.
However, you seem on a productive track with your approach. Kudos.

Welcome again.

Welcome, and congratulations on a viable test procedure.

Mental Professor said:

Based on a Binomial Probabilities calculator (faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html), n=10 (number of tries), k= (number of correct symbols), p=.2 (% chance of getting it right) and q=.8 (% chance of getting it wrong).

The percentage chance of getting the number of symbols correct:
1 or more 89.26%
2 or more 62.42%
3 or more 32.22%
4 or more 12.09%
5 or more 3.28%
6 or more .64%
7 or more .086%
8 or more .0078%
9 or more .00042%
10 exactly lots of zeroes after the decimal point

The one factor not considered in this scenario is that each time a symbol is revealed, there is one less chance for that symbol to turn up again. However, for the method we’re using, I don’t think it will have a significant impact on the results. I would welcome input from a mathematician on how to figure those percentages as it is not in my field of expertise.

Drew

Click to expand...

It would make a difference under certain circumstances. If you could see the symbols, then you would always get #50 right, and would have much better odds as the test goes on. The difference can be surprisingly large. It wouldn't make much of a difference in a 10-of-50 test, and it wouldn't make any difference if you do not get to see the card after each trial.

This leads nicely to the real problem. Your wife may not choose when to say "sending" and you may not choose when to say "received." These must be done at predetermined intervals. I'll let someone else explain why...if you don't already know, this makes an interesting puzzle.

The puzzle that's interesting me just now is whether the professor is willing to accept this restriction.

Go to the next step

Thank you for not burdening us with an explanation about how ESP works.

Most potential applicants fail to clearly answer the following:

1) What will you do that is paranormal?
2) Under what conditions?
3) With what accuracy?

I think you really need to cover only those three and the dialogue that follows will pick it up from there.

I don't see any problem at first glance in your protocol, though there may be too much detail for this early stage. The JREF and observing group will be the ones to analyze it to be sure all conceivable opportunities to cheat are eliminated.

My suggestion to you would be to just do it. Comprehend all the rules, fill out a valid application with the notarized affidavits, and submit it. Be nice. A million dollars awaits you if you succeed.

Have you demonstrated this ability to three professional people who will submit the affidavits? Perhaps promising them a cut of the prize would motivate otherwise disinterested witnesses to fill those roles.

Forgive me for asking a blunt question: Do you really believe you and your wife share an ESP connection, or do you plan to win the prize by cheating?

Mental Professor said:

5. When my wife states that she is ready, a fourth observer will radio the word “sending” to a fifth observer in the room where I am located. The third observer will then turn over the first symbol and place it on the other side of the tray. (This will be done in plain view of all observers so that everyone can verify that only one (1) symbol is being turned over at a time, and that no switches are taking place.) When the symbol is turned over, my wife will stare at the symbol and attempt to transmit her thought to me. A sixth observer will write down the symbol being transmitted.

6. Upon receiving her thought, I will write the symbol down and the fifth observer will then radio back “received” to the fourth observer. The process will then repeat itself for a total of ten (10) times to use all of the symbols in the envelope.

Click to expand...

1) A negotiated protocol by JREF would probably not like having a radio transmitter in your wife's room and a radio receiver in your room. Obviously looking to avoid any clandestine methods of transmitting information. Some other method (pre-arranged times, five minute intervals, etc.) would preclude having to have any communication between rooms, as long as that scenario fits in with your ability. Edit: And, of course, ChristineR's reason which I blithely neglected.

2) For practical reasons, one would want to know several things from your own initial investigations into the phenomenon to conduct a valid test. How far apart can you and your wife be? (We'd want to make sure that the test didn't fail because you'd tried it 20 feet apart, but the test rooms were 100 feet apart.) You posit being able to do it through a Faraday Cage -- do you foresee any other standard building materials that would prevent transmission?

- Timothy

Nguyen Protocol

1. Yes, we have presented this demonstration on numerous occasions with an average of 7 right.

2. I am fine with Nguyen's Protocol, substituting ESP symbols for words. They could be written as a list and placed in an envelope as stated in the notes. Would 20 symbols be preferable? What would JREF consider a successful test? 14 or more out of 20?

This is what I read: (I'm not sure what the strange symbols are...)

1. Mr. Nguyen will be at a small table in the upstairs theater at CFI-West.

2. The receiver(s) will be at a table downstairs in the lobby, less than 25’ apart from Mr. Nguyen.

3. The IIG will make sure no transmitting apparatuses are on Mr. Nguyen’s person.

4. The receiver(s) will be provided with a sheet of paper containing blanks numbered 1 – 20.

5. After Mr. Nguyen and the receiver(s) are situated, ready, and comfortable, Mr. Nguyen will be given a sealed list of 30 words numbered 1-30. Mr. Nguyen will choose 20 of the words, and indicate his choices by circling the numbers next to the words he has chosen.

6. Mr. Nguyen will then send the words one at a time, in numerical order, lowest to highest.

7. Mr. Nguyen agrees not to make any sounds during the sending process.

8. When Mr. Nguyen is ready to send each word, an IIG representative will announce that he is beginning transmission. This information will be relayed to the receiver(s). (“Sending the first word.” e.g.)

9. Mr. Nguyen has up to 2 minutes to send each word.

10. When the receiver(s) has written a response after each transmission, that information will be relayed back upstairs to Mr. Nguyen. (“First word received”, e.g.)

11. After the twenty words have been transmitted and received, the “received” list will be brought back upstairs to be compared with the “send” list. To be counted as a “hit”, a word on the “received” sheet must be spelled correctly, and in the same sequence as the word on the “send” sheet. In accordance with Mr. Nguyen’s claim, a score of 19 out of 20, or 20 out of 20 will be considered a success in this preliminary test.

12. Mr. Nguyen and all who participate agree to being photographed and videotaped during this process.


IIG notes…

1. Word list envelope will be sealed, and contents wrapped in tin foil.

2. No talking (or signaling!) during the test

3. Mix the alphabet around with the word order.

4. Photocopy Mr. Nguyen’s “pick list”, and the “receiver’s sheet.”

5. Ask “Are your ready and is there anything here that would prevent you from being able to perform successfully?”

6. Only the SC and JU will know the list of 30. Only JU and one other SC member will see the final list after Mr. Nguyen has chosen his list.

7. Any IIG member or SC member may raise his or her hand during the demonstration to inform the others of suspicious behavior on the part of Mr. Nguyen.

Mental Professor said:

1. Yes, we have presented this demonstration on numerous occasions with an average of 7 right.

2. I am fine with Nguyen's Protocol, substituting ESP symbols for words. They could be written as a list and placed in an envelope as stated in the notes. Would 20 symbols be preferable? What would JREF consider a successful test? 14 or more out of 20?

This is what I read: (I'm not sure what the strange symbols are...)

1. Mr. Nguyen will be at a small table in the upstairs theater at CFI-West.

2. The receiver(s) will be at a table downstairs in the lobby, less than 25’ apart from Mr. Nguyen.

3. The IIG will make sure no transmitting apparatuses are on Mr. Nguyen’s person.

4. The receiver(s) will be provided with a sheet of paper containing blanks numbered 1 – 20.

5. After Mr. Nguyen and the receiver(s) are situated, ready, and comfortable, Mr. Nguyen will be given a sealed list of 30 words numbered 1-30. Mr. Nguyen will choose 20 of the words, and indicate his choices by circling the numbers next to the words he has chosen.

6. Mr. Nguyen will then send the words one at a time, in numerical order, lowest to highest.

7. Mr. Nguyen agrees not to make any sounds during the sending process.

8. When Mr. Nguyen is ready to send each word, an IIG representative will announce that he is beginning transmission. This information will be relayed to the receiver(s). (“Sending the first word.” e.g.)

9. Mr. Nguyen has up to 2 minutes to send each word.

10. When the receiver(s) has written a response after each transmission, that information will be relayed back upstairs to Mr. Nguyen. (“First word received”, e.g.)

11. After the twenty words have been transmitted and received, the “received” list will be brought back upstairs to be compared with the “send” list. To be counted as a “hit”, a word on the “received” sheet must be spelled correctly, and in the same sequence as the word on the “send” sheet. In accordance with Mr. Nguyen’s claim, a score of 19 out of 20, or 20 out of 20 will be considered a success in this preliminary test.

12. Mr. Nguyen and all who participate agree to being photographed and videotaped during this process.


IIG notes…

1. Word list envelope will be sealed, and contents wrapped in tin foil.

2. No talking (or signaling!) during the test

3. Mix the alphabet around with the word order.

4. Photocopy Mr. Nguyen’s “pick list”, and the “receiver’s sheet.”

5. Ask “Are your ready and is there anything here that would prevent you from being able to perform successfully?”

6. Only the SC and JU will know the list of 30. Only JU and one other SC member will see the final list after Mr. Nguyen has chosen his list.

7. Any IIG member or SC member may raise his or her hand during the demonstration to inform the others of suspicious behavior on the part of Mr. Nguyen.

Click to expand...

7 out of 10 right "on numerous occasions" sounds good.

The "strange symbols" may be the result of formatting problems when the text was copied and recopied.



Drew/Mental Professor, I'd say you're ready for testing. I suggest you send in an application. http://www.randi.org/research/challenge.html

The JREF fortunately processes Challenge Applications again. If you want to ensure a speedy processing of your claim, enclose three affidavits - as mentioned here: http://www.randi.org/research/faq.html#4.8

After your Application got accepted - which most likely will happen if you proceed as before - you should ask the Challenge Facilitator what would constitute a success and a failure.

The Challenge Facilitator has the say what goes. Us Forum Members only give - at best - helpful advice how to proceed productively.

I'd say: Go for it.

Previous demonstrations

Mental Professor said:

we have presented this demonstration on numerous occasions with an average of 7 right.

Click to expand...

Would you mind describing the previous demonstrations in detail for us? What you did, and what were the conditions? Separate rooms? What distance between you and your wife? What was the timing and protocol?

Mental Professor said:

1. Yes, we have presented this demonstration on numerous occasions with an average of 7 right.

2. I am fine with Nguyen's Protocol, substituting ESP symbols for words. They could be written as a list and placed in an envelope as stated in the notes. Would 20 symbols be preferable? What would JREF consider a successful test? 14 or more out of 20?

Click to expand...

Hello Mental Professor. I have some questions:

1) Am I correct in assuming that there will be, in all, fifty different "ESP symbols" broken into groups of ten, so that no symbols are duplicated in any of the groups? Or are you proposing ten different "ESP symbols" simply presented in different order in each group?

2) Is using words instead of "ESP symbols" acceptable or unacceptable to you?

3) Christine has proposed that the sending and receiving of the next symbol proceed at fixed intervals, rather than when you and/or your wife declare readiness. Is this restriction acceptable to you?

Thanks for your attention to these questions. I look forward to following the progress of your application.

Gr8wight said:

Hello Mental Professor. I have some questions:

1) Am I correct in assuming that there will be, in all, fifty different "ESP symbols" broken into groups of ten, so that no symbols are duplicated in any of the groups? Or are you proposing ten different "ESP symbols" simply presented in different order in each group?

Click to expand...

I believe he is proposing neither.

Instead there would be five different "standard Rhine" ESP symbols (star, circle, square, wavy lines and the cross), each duplicated ten times.

quick google search found examples of such symbols here: *link edited out*

edit: the main site of what I linked is full woo with costly phone tarot reading stuff, I'd rather not link to such site for any reason now that I think of it. I'll hotlink to image of the symbols soon.


edit2: Here they are, the square, the star, the wavy lines, the cross and the circle

I see no reason whatsoever why the symbols would be unacceptable. If this is his claimed ability, they'd let him test it. We don't need to discuss the use of words.

Mental Professor, your claim seems very solid. There will certainly be changes to your protocol, but we can let the Challenge Administrator decide those. I recommend, if you are completely confident in your ability, that you send in a notarized application. Print it, sign it in front of a public notary, write your claim (NOT a protocol- just a paragraph defining your claim, where you are, and what will constitute a positive and negative result), and mail it in.

Also, I recommend you read through the FAQ thoroughly, though I think you already have.

Good Luck!

To answer the first question I saw there, I think it is unlikely JREF would be eager to accept results obtainable by chance 0.64% of the time and encourage you to either increase the number correct, or increase the number of trials. For example, I think a suggestion of as little as 11 or more correct out of 20 such trials (0.046% by my math) would be fairly likely for them to accept. They may ask for more though.

Also, I second the motion that JREF would likely prefer to have the trials timed to provide synchronization, rather than any kind of communication between the rooms, if that is possible.

Nguyen's Protocol would be a fantastic starting point, since it is already established and defined.

I'd think something like the following would be a fair start for the proposal:

"I propose to follow Nguyen's Protocol, substituting standard Rhine ESP symbols for the words. Each trial will attempt to send and receive one of the 5 symbols selected at random. I propose a correct identification in 11 or more of 20 trials will signify success"

Nope, petre communication between the rooms is fine (there are potential pitfalls, but it isn't impossible). Nguyen's trial had limited communication. But the trials still have to take place at regular intervals....

It's a puzzle. PM me if you like.

ChristineR said:

Nope, petre communication between the rooms is fine (there are potential pitfalls, but it isn't impossible). Nguyen's trial had limited communication. But the trials still have to take place at regular intervals....
...

Click to expand...

I think #9 of the "Nguyen Protocol" covers the interval question, doesn't it?

#8 and #10 cover the communication, right?

I would think a protocol to ensure that the cards with the symbols are not handled by the professor or his wife, and are properly randomized. \

I also think that communication of any kind between them is unacceptable. rehearsed cues can be masked in any conversational type communication.

Of course the insistance on those specific symbols makes me think of the possibility of a pre-rehearsed act. If you can truly read your wife's thoughts, why does the symbol used matter?

I don't represent the JREF in any way, just to be clear.

No, number nine does not address the problem. Number nine is just a cutoff that keeps the claimant from making the test last forever and forcing the test to be cancelled. ("I would have won, had they only allowed me ONE MORE MINUTE!")

I don't like the good professor using the word "lucid" in the thread title. I mean, it is a strikingly lucid proposal, but "I have a bad feeling about this."