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Old 8th February 2007, 05:53 AM   #1
ohp
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Brianspredictions.com - did he predict the UK lottery numbers?

Sorry, this post is a little long, I did have a really good rummage on the site.

I did do a search on the Jref forum for this, and it returned a blank, so I can only assume this hasn't generally been seen before.

I was googling for something entirely different (boring techy stuff) when I came across this site:

http://briansprediction.com/

Well, I thought I'd have a laugh, so I dug about a bit. There's a small bit of text at the top that says "More than 4000 confirmed dream predictions"

Uh oh, I thought. This is the old scattergun approach, where you write down a load of gibberish, and wait until some of it matches. Ultimately much of it seems to be the case, but I came across this bit:

http://briansprediction.com/dd/5050.htm

Wow. He predicted the outcome of the lottery draw on the 3rd of January, in a dream on the 2nd! Not only that, but he guessed the bonus ball too.

Now, this is a bit of a statistical nightmare to work out, but the chances of winning the national lottery are 1 in (49!/(43!*6!)) = 1 in 14 million. Add the bonus ball prediction, and I believe that comes to 1 in 588 million.

Watch out Mr Randi... your million dollars might be at stake! Oh, wait, anyone that can predict the national lottery numbers doesn't need a million dollars!

In light of this amazing power, I thought I'd poke around a bit more...

The first thing that is odd is the order of numbers. The plain text of the prediction (oh, and there's a silly face there too) was

"394613174749 48 UK SH"

When you compare this with the actual results:

13,17,39,46,47,49 Bonus Ball: 48

You can see that the difference is that the middle two numbers had been switched to the front in the prediction. So what? you might say, perhaps they were drawn in that order...

well, they were drawn in this order:

17,46,49,13,47,39 bonus ball: 48

You'd expect a psychic to read them out in the order of the draw wouldn't you? Well, perhaps I'm making too many assumptions.

OK, so what about the time of the prediction?

There's a link above the image with floatover text that reads

"This documents creation date has been confirmed"

This takes you to a site called ymlp.com, which appears to be a mailing list provider. There is an archive of posts. the one we're interested in is:

http://www.ymlp.com/pubarchive_show_...?brian2179+733

If you take it on face value, these predictions were posted at "2.3.2007 1:28 PM EDT USA" which is, if I'm not mistaken, is 5.28pm GMT (UK time) on 3rd February.

So when was the draw? The UK national lottery site doesn't have the actual time of the draw, so I called them up to find out. They could only tell me the usual time, even after referring me to their line manager. They suggested that I call the BBC. When I called the BBC all they could tell me was the draw was between 7.50pm and 8.35pm on the 3rd February. (the draw occurs during a panel game style quiz show)

Wow. This posting was made around 2 hours and 20 minutes before the lottery draw!

As one final check, I checked to see that the image files are part of the mail itself, as an attachment, so I know that the image files were mailed out at the same time as the post itself. The crucial one in question has the following URL:

http://briansprediction.com/pri/FEB20097.jpg

Ah. Looks like it's pointing back at Brian's site. Well, it's just an innocent mistake isn't it? we all know this image was created at the same time as the post, don't we? How can we tell?

There's a thing with http called the last-modified: header that most web servers will take from the file date stamp on the filesystem. When you download a file with the wget utility, it will preserve this date stamp on the file you downloaded. Now, it's not foolproof, but if it shows a date before the predicted event, then either this bloke is a bit clever with web sites, or he's psychic. If it's after, then he's either a faker, his server's clock is wrong, or he didn't upload the premonition until after the lottery results, which is odd, as the mailing list post that references it was posted at 5.30pm.

I checked the clock was correct from a server header response.. yes, it shows the current time, so the server clock isn't wrong.

So what's the time stamp of the image file I hear you ask?

Drum roll please....

3rd February at 10.26pm, GMT, around 2 hours after the national lottery draw.
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Old 8th February 2007, 07:43 AM   #2
ohp
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Oh, in case you were wondering... the answer is no
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Old 8th February 2007, 08:15 AM   #3
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Excellent job, ohp! I love a good detective story.
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Old 8th February 2007, 08:40 AM   #4
ohp
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here's the techie stuff.

basically, I telnet to the web server, request the header for the file, disconnect, then check the time to ensure that it matches the remote server.

root@gordon:~/woosite# telnet briansprediction.com 80
Trying 74.52.8.230...
Connected to briansprediction.com.
Escape character is '^]'.
HEAD /pri/FEB20097.jpg HTTP/1.1
Host: briansprediction.com

HTTP/1.1 200 OK
Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2007 15:35:30 GMT
Server: Apache/1.3.36 (Unix) mod_auth_passthrough/1.8 mod_log_bytes/1.2 mod_bwlimited/1.4 FrontPage/5.0.2.2635.SR1.2 mod_ssl/2.8.27 OpenSSL/0.9.7a PHP-CGI/0.1b
Last-Modified: Sat, 03 Feb 2007 22:26:48 GMT
ETag: "1380c5-14799-45c50c28"
Accept-Ranges: bytes
Content-Length: 83865
Content-Type: image/jpeg

Connection closed by foreign host.
root@gordon:~/fakesite# date
Thu Feb 8 15:35:50 GMT 2007
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Old 8th February 2007, 08:49 AM   #5
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Outstanding job, ohp!

Really. This is just the kind of investigating I appreciate.

So have you confronted this fraud? He claims "hundreds of correct lottery picks".
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Old 8th February 2007, 08:53 AM   #6
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Quote:
My dream predictions have made headlines worldwide
Heh. If you follow the link from there, it is basically him using news headlines to "prove" his dream predictions were correct. Not that HE or his predictions made headlines.
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Old 8th February 2007, 08:55 AM   #7
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Great work. But why are you an overhead projector?
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Old 8th February 2007, 09:16 AM   #8
EternalSceptic
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Originally Posted by Luke T. View Post
Heh. If you follow the link from there, it is basically him using news headlines to "prove" his dream predictions were correct. Not that HE or his predictions made headlines.

Besides that excellent investigation - my warmest congratulations! - if that guy predicted so many lottery outcomes, why isn't he about as rich as billy the fence-inlets is?

Oops, responded to the wrong poster, was meant to the OP. My apologies

Last edited by EternalSceptic; 8th February 2007 at 09:19 AM.
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Old 8th February 2007, 09:32 AM   #9
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Yes, congratulations!

Looking through the Missing People section, it's the usual crap:
Quote:
Did not see the little girl, but did see the house and living room of where I think the child is staying. The home is some sort of duplex with the child's home on the left, 26A maybe the house number, and I think its in a small town in the UK.

The living room has toys scattered around, a calendar, some sort of British flag and a small TV. This is all I have on this today, and will try to see more tomorrow. I do think this little girl is not in danger, in fact I thinks she very happy. 2 men live in the house, and I'm not sure the girls mother is around very much. The 2 men drive a very small green car, and do not have a plate number yet, as I think this maybe the only way I will be able to locate this child.
House number 26A somewhere in a small town somewhere in the UK. Yes, Brian, that really narrows things down. Why the (rule8) couldn't you see something useful? Like a street nameplate? Or the name and address on a letter lying on the doormat? How about the front page of a local newspaper lying around the living room? If you can see a calendar in the room, why not something like that????
Grrr. Another (rule8) psychic predator.

EDIT: Just noticed this at the bottom of his Missing Person page:
Quote:
Disclaimer: All public missing person searches are done free of charge on a time available bases. When requesting a public reading, be aware that all information on this case will be posted, this included all emails send to me and from me. I do offer private remote viewings and person searches, but they are not done for free.
He doesn't make his money from predicting lottery wins. But he makes money instead from the families and friends of missing people. UGH.
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Last edited by sophia8; 8th February 2007 at 09:41 AM.
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Old 8th February 2007, 09:37 AM   #10
wahrheit
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Originally Posted by ohp View Post
3rd February at 10.26pm, GMT, around 2 hours after the national lottery draw.
You can open the picture in FireFox, click on page info and you get the same date and time (see last line of the screenshot below):



(It's displayed one hour later because my computer is UK+1 hr)

This Brian must think everybody is as dense as he is?
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Old 8th February 2007, 09:55 AM   #11
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Nice work!
He's clearly got way too much time on his hands - have you seen how many doodles he's got on that site?
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Old 9th February 2007, 02:28 AM   #12
ohp
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Originally Posted by wahrheit View Post
You can open the picture in FireFox, click on page info and you get the same date and time (see last line of the screenshot below):


(It's displayed one hour later because my computer is UK+1 hr)

This Brian must think everybody is as dense as he is?
Thanks for that. I was looking in Image properties, which is, in hindsight, the wrong place to look for an http header.

I havn't confronted this bloke... I want to see if I can find out about what content appears in the newsletters when they are sent out, or even if you can see the newsletters before the images appear, or are created.

looking at the site last night, theer are two levels of membership, green, and gold. If the numbers are correct then there are 98 members, at 899 dollars for a lifetime membership. he's made at least 90,000 dollars from this already, not including the basic, and green level membership.
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Old 9th February 2007, 03:06 AM   #13
wahrheit
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Originally Posted by ohp View Post
Thanks for that. I was looking in Image properties, which is, in hindsight, the wrong place to look for an http header.
I also tried the JPG itself, but couldn't find any encoded data in it, either.

Originally Posted by ohp View Post
looking at the site last night, theer are two levels of membership, green, and gold. If the numbers are correct then there are 98 members, at 899 dollars for a lifetime membership. he's made at least 90,000 dollars from this already, not including the basic, and green level membership.
I looked at that membership thing, but I didn't understand what it's good for. It seems that allmost all pages are free accessible to everybody, except for a "lottery number picker" script he probably downloaded from free-scripts-for-your-website.org.vu.bull.

His pricing is outrageous, subscribing to a nekkid site is cheaper than his lottery number membership. Have you seen the "emergency" reading, done within 12 hours, for only $25,000 US? Luckily, you will receive full money back guarantee:
Quote:
MONEY BACK GUARANTEE:

All missing persons readings are guaranteed...meaining I guarantee I will locate the person you're looking for in 36 months or less or I will refund your money in full.
Bolding of the bold parts mine.
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Old 9th February 2007, 05:34 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by ohp View Post
If you take it on face value, these predictions were posted at "2.3.2007 1:28 PM EDT USA" which is, if I'm not mistaken, is 5.28pm GMT (UK time) on 3rd February.

So when was the draw? The UK national lottery site doesn't have the actual time of the draw, so I called them up to find out. They could only tell me the usual time, even after referring me to their line manager. They suggested that I call the BBC. When I called the BBC all they could tell me was the draw was between 7.50pm and 8.35pm on the 3rd February. (the draw occurs during a panel game style quiz show)
On a normal Saturday, the numbers are drawn in the last 10 minutes or so of the show - so let's say it's from 8.20pm onwards. There are two Lottery drawings a week, and the Wednesday one is a quick five-minute affair with no silly game elements, starting at 10.35pm.
I do wonder why he didn't attempt the UK Lottery if he was so sure of the numbers; although US citizens can't buy UK Lotto tickets directly online, they can legally do so through third-party lotto-ticket companies.
But with people happily giving him hundreds of dollars each, he obviously doesn't need any lottery prizes.
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Old 9th February 2007, 06:19 AM   #15
wahrheit
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Originally Posted by sophia8 View Post
On a normal Saturday, the numbers are drawn in the last 10 minutes or so of the show - so let's say it's from 8.20pm onwards. There are two Lottery drawings a week, and the Wednesday one is a quick five-minute affair with no silly game elements, starting at 10.35pm.
I do wonder why he didn't attempt the UK Lottery if he was so sure of the numbers; although US citizens can't buy UK Lotto tickets directly online, they can legally do so through third-party lotto-ticket companies.
But with people happily giving him hundreds of dollars each, he obviously doesn't need any lottery prizes.
Let alone that even the boldest and most cheeky "psychics" say they don't do lottery predictions. For the very reason you just mentioned.
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Old 9th February 2007, 12:26 PM   #16
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Quote:
MONEY BACK GUARANTEE:

All missing persons readings are guaranteed...meaining I guarantee I will locate the person you're looking for in 36 months or less or I will refund your money in full.
Not a problem.
I can make a better offer.
Give me $1 million and I will absolutely guarantee that I can turn you into the most desirable and sexually alluring human being that ever walked on earth within 12 months or I will refund your money in full.
PM me for details.
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Old 10th February 2007, 01:27 PM   #17
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Can someone try to figure out, if possible, if he also pretended to have made some correct predictions about the Shawn Hornbeck case before it was resolved? http://briansprediction.com/warnings140.htm

I'm rather annoyed by him and his vague missing people guesses. Almost every single day I hear about him. It seems strange that he was suddenly on the radar. He's also stating that he's the world's most accurate psychic.

Some ignorant person also wrote him for a guess on my son's case. Everything he said is not something that can be validated. The "bad guy" he drew is so stereo-typical of a bad guy it's laughable. In addition, the meth addiction story is simply pulled from today's headlines.
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Old 18th February 2007, 03:44 PM   #18
wahrheit
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Originally Posted by Kelly View Post
Can someone try to figure out, if possible, if he also pretended to have made some correct predictions about the Shawn Hornbeck case before it was resolved? http://briansprediction.com/warnings140.htm
Kelly, the pictures in the above URL do not show any wrong date like the one we talked about above. Please note that checking the last modified date of any file on a webserver might be an indication, but never proof for the real date that file was created or modified. An administrator of a website can change that date within seconds.

Archive.org does not have any copies of his site since August last year. I do not know why this is the case. Brianpredictions.com does not use a robots.txt, which is normally used to exclude sites from being read by archive.org, so I can't tell.

Originally Posted by Kelly View Post
I'm rather annoyed by him and his vague missing people guesses. Almost every single day I hear about him. It seems strange that he was suddenly on the radar. He's also stating that he's the world's most accurate psychic.

Some ignorant person also wrote him for a guess on my son's case. Everything he said is not something that can be validated. The "bad guy" he drew is so stereo-typical of a bad guy it's laughable. In addition, the meth addiction story is simply pulled from today's headlines.
Your son's case? May I ask, is there a thread here at JREF about it?

Last edited by wahrheit; 18th February 2007 at 03:46 PM.
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Old 18th February 2007, 04:08 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by wahrheit View Post
May I ask, is there a thread here at JREF about it?
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ad.php?t=52101
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Old 19th February 2007, 06:40 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by wahrheit View Post
...
Archive.org does not have any copies of his site since August last year. I do not know why this is the case. Brianpredictions.com does not use a robots.txt, which is normally used to exclude sites from being read by archive.org, so I can't tell....
I can help there. From their FAQ:

http://www.archive.org/about/faqs.php
Why are there no recent archives in the Wayback Machine?
We do not add pages less than 6 months after they are collected, because of the time delayed donation from Alexa. Updates can take more than 12 months in some cases.

There is no access to files before they appear in the Wayback Machine.


----

I don't claim this find for myself - we had a similar discussion on a Browne(?) thread where I pointed out archive.org and somone else found the above when the same question you posed was asked.
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Old 10th September 2007, 09:19 AM   #21
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*Deleted*

It was Chris Robinson.My bad.
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