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#81 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 18,733
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#82 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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5 by 5 each it does make differents with odds.. and does not if card will be returned to the dack each time after being pulled out.. i am using 25 cards in 25 envelopes..so when card pulled its not seen by the person who pulling it as well.. what ever came up.. as envelopes closed..
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#83 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 18,733
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Hang on, you said earlier that your friend will "transmit" the card to you. If they can't see it, what exactly are they doing? Wouldn't it be easier for you to have the envelope yourself. If you can't see the card then it doesn't make any difference if you or someone else have it.
Also, if the cards are replaced each time, how can it make any difference if there are 5 or 25 cards? You have a 1/5 chance of guessing one right in either case. |
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#84 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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well when my friend pulling card.. he don't see what card he pulls, than he open an envelope.. and start to transmit it to me..
as i said i still not sure if its clairvoyance work or more some kind of telepathy, but when i was 'training" i done it with a friend.. as i said i might try to do it my self maybe.. If card replaced every time fine...its does not make differents for odds.. but as i would prefer that they would be all in envelope so who ever pull them out don`t know what card pulled out before an envelope open.. so.. again lest clear it out. To bit 1000 odds i have to get 12 correct or 13? out of 25 cards.. every time card that pulled out of dack, get back to envelope..siled and returns to the dack..than dack get reshuffeled and new card pulled out.. so..? |
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#86 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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well... is 3 news papers articles would be enough? 1 Maltese news paper (in English), 2in London (in Russian), there was one in France but i don`t have it on me..there was a few radio programs that i took part in..but i don`t have it recorded
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#87 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 252
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#88 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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From here:
"[...] 12. This offer is not open to any and all persons. Before being considered as an applicant, the person applying must satisfy two conditions: First, he/she must have a “media presence,” which means having been published, written about, or known to the media in regard to his/her claimed abilities or powers. This can be established by producing articles, videos, books, or other published material that specifically addresses the person’s abilities. Second, he/she must produce at least one signed document from an academic who has witnessed the powers or abilities of the person, and will validate that these powers or abilities have been verified. [...]" Pavel_do, it should be worth it to inquire at the sources to send you copies of said articles or transcpipts/recordings of said radio programs. If they deal specifically with your claimed ability, you should be good on the media presence requirement. Can you also provide a "document from an academic who has witnessed (your) powers or abilities"? Such a document could be a simple affidavit, reading something like this: "I have witnessed the claimed power by (your name) in a demonstration and I can offer no rational explanation for it." (Signed by the academic, date, address, etc.) Failing to meet one of those requirements makes discussion about your test protocol moot, simply because there will be no test. Since you hadn't brought it up, I assumed you had everything in place to send in your application with excellent chances of acceptance. Again, only the JREF can answer officially: challenge@randi.org |
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#89 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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well the articles in the News papers are about my abilities like this one that in English.. http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/2005/10/02/tw/index.html 2 other in Russian and about my clairvoyance like one of them written by Journalist who came to me for a reading.. and honestly i had no idea she is journalist.. i can translate if if that will be necessary..
about Academic witnessing, i am aware of it and when i sent my application that seemed to got lost in mail.. there was a letter from an Academic from London, lady that works at the London University ( not sure if i can write her name she is Academic (Professor, Dr) of Physic and mathematic)...Ill have to get new one now if ill be able to get in touch after ill be back to London in couple of weeks.. as she was going to move. or ill try to find some one alts.. just have to questions..to make them clear a bit for me .. so the articles HAVE TO SAY MENTION SPECIFICLE MY ZENER CARDS TESTS?? or just that they talk about me as a psychic and clairvoyant would be enough..? cause in that case i should go to a newspapers and ask them to write about it.. that for me seems a bit weard.. about Academic.. is there any specific academic title has to sign witnessing?? or as long as it academic is enough? cause i can try to find some one in Malta who would agree to see test and sign it that would save a few weeks ![]() p.s. regarding JREF can answer officially.. i think when we`ll agree with all like odds, performens than ill be able to ask if it is all OK from JREF, as for now they hasn't reply still to my letter about how many cards out of 25 would be evident enough and if the person who will be 'transmitting" cards will be in same room opposite me but ill have my eyes and ears covers to prevent any signaling.. |
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#90 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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Yes, the media coverage should cover your Zener Cards claim. From here:
"[...] 12. This offer is not open to any and all persons. Before being considered as an applicant, the person applying must satisfy two conditions: First, he/she must have a “media presence,” which means having been published, written about, or known to the media in regard to his/her claimed abilities or powers. This can be established by producing articles, videos, books, or other published material that specifically addresses the person’s abilities. Second, he/she must produce at least one signed document from an academic who has witnessed the powers or abilities of the person, and will validate that these powers or abilities have been verified. [...]" I highlighted the relevant section for your convenience. Pavel_do, should you need to apply again, I recommend you send certified mail. You do realise you are sincerely considering taking the JREF Challenge which means you intend to win USD 1,000,000, right? I'm saying this because there have literally been dozens of people in the past two years who claimed genuine powers but couldn't spring for the money to send a certified letter. Let's say statements like this do not add to your credibility here. Please consider also that the JREF has quite some work on their hands, especially with applicants who are a bit further on their way to a preliminary test. Right now, you are on square one and still seem a bit all over the place. The more specific and precise you tell us - and the JREF - what you can do and how you specifically intend to prove it, the sooner a test can be arranged. Have you read the Achau Nguyen test protocol? |
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#91 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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yes i did read Achau Nguyen test protocol and i wrote about it..i am finding it fair and as i said the guy complicated things for him self..
I will send my new application by Fedex or DHL this time with no doubts. Just for now than ill try to "put in a few lines" my claim and will discuss it with all of you till it will seems more or less fine ![]() And mean wile still will ask JREF if the Articles has to be specifically say about my Zener card tests.. or still my articles can be fine.. as for me as i said its seems a bit weard to go and ask press to write an article about it cause it says "First, he/she must have a “media presence,” which means having been published, written about, or known to the media in regard to his/her claimed abilities or powers. " ..i am claming i am a clairvoyant and can "predict" what card puled out without seeing it first..as a clairvoyant..the articles refers to my gift as a clairvoyant and prediction.. so it should be good enough.. ?? what do you think... i know only JREF can answer and if the rule is the rule than its fine.. but still.. what do you think?? is anywhere there is information that for example the guy Achau Nguyen produced articles specificle telling about his abilete to recaive transmitted words..?? i don`t think so to be honest.. another thing about Academics does any one know if there should be any specific one?? |
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#92 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,292
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I have not received this message. Did you send it to Challenge@randi.org? You might want to re-send.
Thanks, RemieV |
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#93 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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yes i did
yes i did sent it on email and there was no any delivery failler letter so it went through. here is the copy of it and i resent it just now.. my email pavel_do@yahoo.com
Good afternoon, I have a question.. is that would be good enough claim to.. Perform test with Zener cards, 25 in deck 5 different symbols every symbol assigned to a color on the card.. so its 25 Zener cards with 5 different symbols and colors. lets say.. I am wearing the mask that cover my eyes and ear plugs to eliminate sounds..and destruction. The person (any one) shuffle the cards and give them 1 by one to a friend of mine who looking at the card and try to "transmit" it to me.. so i am naming the card that is his hand. one by one.. we siting on 1 table opposite each other.. there will be no any physical contact like holding hands or something.. as i said..ill be with covered eyes and using ear plugs..beside that i have my a bit different cards there is one more thing "my person" ( friend of my) will be holding cards that i am going to "guess" who ever like it can pull it.. randomly or what ever.and than pass it to my friend.. than he will be holding it and ill be "seeing" what card does he hold.. some one will say why some one that should be etc... ill tell you why.. to be honest first of all ill feel my self more comfortable and confidant in this way as it will be support for me form the person i trust.. another thing I am a clairvoyant..but still dot know if i am a telepath in a way and that is the way i "pick up" colors... so i would prefer a person i know and trust, to hold card and see it, to think about what he see and to transmit me a "picture".. obviously i can be sure that the person who i know by looking at red card with circle will be think circle and imagining red card..NOT trying to confuse me or "double-chack".. How much would it be self evident and how many times would be enough to perform it?? regards, pavel |
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#94 |
Muse
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 887
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The advantage of using 5 sets of the cards is that you could perform the test without replacement and still achieve a 1/1000 threshold (if only 5 cards were used, you'd have a 1/5*4*3*2 = 1/120 chance). With replacement, as pavel_do noted, there is really no difference.
For simplicity, I recommend with replacement, and using just 5 cards. It makes the math easy and reduces preperation overhead. |
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#95 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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![]() I got an email from JERF so asked some questions again and waiting for reply.. ![]() Petre seems like you good at calculations.. ![]() lets say it is still deck of 25 cards, shuffled.. and one by one it "guessed" what is the odds of 5.6.7.8.9...20..cards to be "guessed" out of 25. in two cases... 1.. if every time card is return back to the deck and reshuffled.. (still 25 cards to be guessed) and 2 way.. is when no card get replaced.. that pulled out randomly from 1 till last one. 25th. Or If some one can calculate it..please do and post it for us..i might be useful for someone alts as well. ![]() ![]() ![]() have aq nice weekend everyone.! |
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#96 |
Muse
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 887
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With replacement (1) is fairly simple:
5 27.80320486% 6 3.75600941% 7 .41612115% 8 .03839569% 9 .00298393% 10 .00019689% 11 .00001109% 12 .00000054% 13 .00000002% 14 .00000000% (this, and all further correct, exceed the precision so they show as 0%). A result of 8 out of 25 should be sufficient for the less than 1/1000 standard. Without replacement (2) is a bit more involved of a calculation. I can tell you with little work that the odds of being able to get 5 correct out of 25 is 100%. How? Simply choose the same card for all 25. Since 5 of them are guaranteed to be this card, you'll have a 100% chance to get 5 correct. Of course, you'll be guaranteed to get 20 wrong too. This is part of the problem with this method, what cards you choose will affect the percentages. Will the protocol allow you to choose a card more than 5 times? If not, what happens when you get to the last card and your previous choices leave only "star" left...but you just KNOW it's really a "plus"? Assuming you're allowed to choose a card more than 5 times, the odds of getting 6 correct would be 1/5. You'd choose the same card (I'll call it A) for 24 cards, then a different card (B) for the last. If the last card is B (1/5 chance) then all of the A's were also in the first 24, so you'd have 6 correct. It is beyond simple math to go too far into this, as at each step you have to determine the optimal picking strategy and then calculate the odds based on that strategy. I CAN say with certainty that the odds will never be better than the odds of getting 5 fewer correct for the with replacement system (note the odds of getting 0 correct with replacement are the same or better than getting 5 correct without replacement, odds of getting 1 correct with replacement are the same or better than getting 6 correct without, etc). I can therefore say with certainty that a result of (8+5=) 13 out of 25 without replacement will definately have odds lower than 1/1000. The actual threshold would be somewhere between 9 and 13. |
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#97 |
New Blood
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2
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I always amazed at what you find on Youtube.
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#98 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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Thank you very much. i got another email from JREF..will write soon. eveyone have a nice week and coming weekend
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#99 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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hello:)
Hi guys,
how is everyone? ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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#100 |
New York Skeptic
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 13,714
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#101 |
Muse
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 930
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An example: if a psychic wanted to cheat at the test, she could set up a signal with her accomplice that was transmitted through foot taps. Even with ear-plugs in, she might be able to feel the vibration of the taps through the floor. Or, if they're sitting at the same table, the accomplice could tap his fingers on the table, which the psychic could feel.
If your psychic ability works when the other person is across the room and you are blindfolded and have earplugs, why wouldn't it work when the other person is in an adjoining room? |
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#102 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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fair enough to make some arrangements etc..But, KREF will make sure that theer is no any...
Regarding the ability... ok i have to face the fact that we have to be in different rooms, so ill start to work mor eon being my self.. still Imagine there is telepathy ( that i dont doubt) obviously transmit 2 meteres or through 10 mitters and to different rooms is not much help?? Or there is any proof that telepathy work always even from the other rooms.. ![]() |
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#103 |
New Blood
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1
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(I can't post links yet, but this was the link to the guy that can predict the cards)
This guy almost sounds legit. I love this challenge, because this is the first time that anyone has ever "challenged" the individuals that claim to have Super Natural abilities. This contest should prove that, either 1, no one can actually have super natural abilities, or 2, that those that claim to have these abilities are actually over stating what they can do, and simply are good at putting on a show, and finally 3, it would prove that yes, someone has the ability to do something that normal humans can not do, which would be the most pivotal point in human history. I am so glad that someone has thought to make this a contest, because who couldn't use a million dollars. If you had any paranormal ability, you would definitely put it to the test for a mil. Countysky |
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#104 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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Hello:)
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#105 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 27,633
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Welcome back.
Is any of your media presence on-line? Links? |
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This signature is for rent. |
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#106 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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in english just this one.. http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/2005/10/02/tw/index.html but i probable sew it already..
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#107 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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#108 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,292
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#109 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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the time will kindly show us..:)
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#110 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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#111 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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If ill faill... I will conclude that wasnt ready (prepared) enough.. SO to avoid it ill do my best to be ready for 100%
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#112 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 27,633
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Sorry, that is not good enough. You need to be 100% ready. Do not take the test until you are 100% sure you can do the test. Practice in a close way to the way you will be performing on the day. Make sure you have several people to help you. Some of the helpers can be reporters who can then write articles about you, so that by the time you do the real test everything is just a formality.
The $1m would then be pin money. You will get job offers with salaries in the $1m pa range. All you have to do is prove your abilities are real. You would also be the first person ever to prove your abilities. |
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This signature is for rent. |
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#113 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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In the - statistical, empirical and experiential - very unlikely event of a successful demonstration of your qualifying claim, I will be very interested in your future tests.
In all brevity: Should you be able to repeat your results several times under the strictest controls imaginable, I will be curious to learn more about your ability. We have heard this statement - sometimes in a different phrasing - many, many times in this forum, pavel_do. How many failures in controlled tests would it take for you to admit you do not have the claimed ability? Five? Ten? 100? 1000? Googoolplex? Even though I wove a humourous twist in the possible answers, I ask this question in all seriousness. |
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#114 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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#115 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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well as i said the time will show us.. maybe there will be no need for 2nd test.. I mean ill pass it first time.. IF ill fail ill try ones again.. depamd on the results and maybe mistakes.. To avoid it ill do my best to be ready 100%.. I still dont know conditions of the actual test.. let say ill pas primary test.. what if thay will ask me to perform same result 10 times at the time.. who know.. i will not be able to do so maybe for soem reasons caus eevn 1 times is stresful enough ets.. we`ll see... |
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#116 |
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 161
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Pavel, you have just said that:
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#117 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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If ill not pass 1 time ill try 2 if not 2nd.. 3d not more. I am sure even if ill fail in a way 1st time it will be significant that i can do it.. i am sure!!! I know i can see things and i know it can be proved! we`ll see any way..the time will kindly show us..
![]() regarding GzuzKryzt How many failures in controlled tests would it take for you to admit you do not have the claimed ability? I have ability, and i will prove it, as long as test will be reasonable, i can see and perform results that will be more than expected odds etc.. but if thay will want from me to perform it 10 times in range or put me in glas box with 100 people around and some toehr things its obviesly can affect results.. but any way.. as i can see from rules, eventhou its strict but there is a way to make it as simple and easy as it possible for the claiment.. But still.. "simple" is diffrent for all of us.. thay might think its simple to perform it in one way and for me that way is not simple at all...like, thay say there is NO WAY my friend will be in same room to 'send" me images of the cards... WHY?? is there any facts that it can be done from difrent rooms same as from same when the "sender" sit opposite you..?? if no one ever proved it..?? from what is it taken?? etc... like as thay say there is ways to cheat, but that is there job to make sure no cheatings that why thay there?? my covered eyes and ears and no fisical contact with "sender" no vizual, sound or any sighns can be seen, it should be silent.. THAT is not good enough for them.. I think you undarstand my point? i hope so at least, that regard to the actual test as it should be as simple and reasonable as it possible for me,.. as what ever who says, stress its not the greatest help for performance... any way we`ll see.. what elts can i say, ill keep everyone posted about all that happaning and test conditions and negotiations of the protocol. |
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#118 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 7,729
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Pavel_do, how many failures in controlled tests would it take for you to admit you do not have the claimed ability? Just hypothetically, you know. Just if.
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#119 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 363
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I do have claimed ability other wise i wouldn`t talk here, the question is HOW JREF will be sutisfught with performens and as i said it will depand of test conditions as long as its reasonable.. Still as we say for now its as por water from one glas to another.. THE time will say..we`ll see.. But if hypothetically as you said.. 2 times maximum 3 is more than enough i think.. But If first time ill "fail" meaning my results will not be sutisfighing enough,., for the 2nd time ill do my best to prevent "mistakes" and do my best to improve it.. again it will be all up to test and final conditions..etc.. so we will seeeeeeeeee.. ![]() |
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#120 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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How many controlled tests like the one you intend to do with the JREF have you done? I'm guessing: None.
The hubris, pardon: confidence of would-be applicants before a test is well documented, pavel_do. Their cockiness (even of those with manners) is usually proportional to the spectacularity of their failure. The loudness of their voices (comparable to the volume of their posts) is also usually proportional to the probability of their impromptu disappearance. Allow me one more guess, pavel_do. If you want, you may call it a prediction: You will not agree to a controlled test for the JREF Challenge. |
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