|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
![]() |
#1 |
Student
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 30
|
More Fun with Homeopath Dana Ullman, MPH(!)
Here was what Dana has to say, in response to my blog (http://secularstudentslb.wordpress.c...y-revisited/):
Quote:
So, what do you think, Skeptics? Has Dana proven homeopathy? Oh my! |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#2 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,585
|
If we would grant the woo-woo physics of water...
To me, it does not say one single thing on how this then would translate in the body being triggered into healing. And, I never got an answer to a question I once asked in a homeopathy store: If it works, then why can I not put some diluted drops of most of the remedies into the ocean and have all people on the planet heal by just taking a dip in the ocean? |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#3 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 5,485
|
Quote:
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#4 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Anonymous Unimportant Place (not a secret Scorpion training facility for Shosuro ninjas)
Posts: 3,186
|
What a pompous twit he is.
|
__________________
The faith of a skeptic is always in doubt Ninja weasel courtesy of http://www.cheeseweasel.net LI Who - It's about Time http://longislanddoctorwho.com/ |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#5 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 3,276
|
Quote:
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#6 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,585
|
Not if they are Amish... what other modes of transport have lasted 50 years or more? That is consistency!
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#7 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 10,226
|
I completely agree that the placebo explanation is inadequate. It has been demonstrated that the effect is also due to bias in the design, analysis and reporting of homeopathic studies.
The criticisms of the Lancet article are contrived. The characteristics on which the studies were matched was explained in detail. The reasoning behind the selection of studies for further analysis was explained in detail and was valid - i.e. to see what would happen to the outcomes if the studies that were least influenced by bias were analyzed. The outcomes were still significant in the conventional medicine trials, but the significance disappeared in the homeopathic trials. The other clinical trials mentioned are isolated "significant" findings. Since we expect this to happen in 5% of trials (in the absence of bias), the studies need independent replication. Otherwise it is more likely that they are simply spurious results, given the lack of any other support. Linda |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#8 |
Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 244
|
![]()
I think you could, but then the homeopaths wouldn`t make any money.
I was thinking of a similar idea adding a homeopathic solution to the local drinking water for a negligible sum (Taking away all business from Homeopaths). That would bring out the homeopaths to start attacking their own theories. Anyone know what water homeopaths use to dilute their solutions, is it a special kind of water ? |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#9 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 27,766
|
Quote:
|
__________________
"That is a very graphic analogy which aids understanding wonderfully while being, strictly speaking, wrong in every possible way." —Ponder Stibbons |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#10 |
Scholar
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 65
|
"I am perfectly familiar with Randi's silly offer."
I love how an offer for a double-blinded, controlled experiment conducted with due oversight is branded with the ad hominem "silly". |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#11 |
Student
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 30
|
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#12 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 18,733
|
Quote:
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#13 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 36,852
|
They have a whole host of "reasons". For example the seawater will not have been succussed properly, or will not have been diluted serially in the approved manner; homoeopathy, it is claimed, only works when properly individualised to the particular patient's set of symptoms (a handy get-out for negative results of clinical trials studying the effects of a particular remedy for a particular condition, at least until someone carried out a double blind placebo controlled trial of individualised homoeopathy and found that it still didn't work, hence the next one); there is some sort of magic (possibly even "quantum"!) entanglement between the patient, the practitioner and the remedy which is destroyed by any blinding process... A more important question, in view of the claims that it only works if properly individualised, is: why do homoeopaths not object to OTC "homoeopathic" remedies sold to treat a particular condition? |
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#14 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,585
|
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#15 |
Eats shoots and leaves.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: South Carolina
Posts: 8,217
|
Do homeopaths enjoy watered down drinks?
|
__________________
"Truth does not contradict truth." - St. Augustine "Faith often contradicts faith. Therefore faith is not an indication of truth." - RenaissanceBiker |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#16 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,585
|
You know, I was just thinking about something along these lines....
I am going to try two homeopathic experiments! One: First I am going to create a C30 solution of Jack Daniels (have to do that first, because I have to be sober to do all the measuring and shaking... well not the shaking, but you get my drift) Then I am going to get drunk on JD. Then, if I am able to remember, I will try the solution to see if it cures me of being drunk! Two: I am taking the C30 solution prepared earlier and see if it makes me more drunk! |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#17 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 897
|
Not to mention an offer of $1m for carrying out such an experiment (assuming homeopathy works, of course...) I mean, if someone offered me a million bucks research funding in exchange for carrying out one simple experiment, I wouldn't really care how 'silly' what they wanted me to do was...hell, if I was asked to wear a clown outfit while working, my response would be 'what type of shoes'
![]() Maybe homeopathic research is better funded, though? Or Dana doubts that homeopathy would pass such a 'silly' challenge. |
__________________
Holford Watch: the truth about Patrick Holford, media nutritionist. |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#18 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 36,852
|
You need a control. Blinding this shouldn't be too difficult though: when preparing the 3oC JD, just take two bottles, put your 30C JD in one and water in the other, and mark them "A" and "B". With a bit of luck you won't be able to remember which is which after you've drunk the JD. Then get a friend to volunteer to get drunk with you and give them whichever bottle you don't use yourself. If you want to double blind the experiment, label the bottles while drunk. ![]() |
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#19 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
|
Would you mind elaborating on that? I understand that a small percent of all experiments will produce positive results. Of course whether those results could be replicated independently is another matter.
But why should we expect 5%? And in absence of what bias? I see it as the best explanation for why positive homeopathy publications exist, and why none of them (to my knowledge) have been replicated. But I don't really get the details... |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#20 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 50,593
|
The quick version is that when a scientific experiment reports a significant result, the cutoff for significance is usually that the chances of the result occurring by accident (that is, in the absence of any real difference between the two test groups) is only 1 in 20 (that is 5%, usually expressed as p<0.05, the probability of the result being random is less than 0.05).
So if you do an experiment to try to find a difference where none exists, and you keep doing it, then one shot out of every 20 repetitions will give you an apparently significant difference. One shot in 100 will give you significance at p<0.01, and one out of every 1,000 will get you p<0.001, which is usually considered to be a pretty strong indication of significance. Rolfe. |
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#21 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 10,226
|
Five percent simply represents our arbitrary cut-off for significance testing.
A clinical trial is the process of taking a bunch of people, dividing them into two groups and then taking some measurements after a period of time has passed. We expect some differences in the measurements between the two groups just due to chance. What we are really interested in knowing is whether the differences are so unexpected (if it were only due to chance) that we really should consider that the treatment given to one of the groups contributed to the difference. By convention, we have chosen p<0.05 (less than %5 chance or 1 chance in 20) as the cut-off for considering a difference so unexpected that it provides evidence in favour of a real drug effect. However, 1000's of clinical trials have been performed, which means that we should expect to see 100's (i.e. 5%) of "statistically significant" differences due to chance, so we need to be cautious of isolated findings.
Quote:
For example, there may be a bias in the way you divide the people into two groups (putting all the men in one group and all the women in the other would lead to obvious differences), the two groups may undergo different treatment, the measurements may be performed differently, the method of analysis may create differences that wouldn't exist otherwise, etc. These problems are well-documented and pervasive in homeopathic research. Linda |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#22 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
|
Two good answers, thanks Rolfe and Linda.
Quote:
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#23 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,951
|
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#24 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 36,852
|
|
__________________
"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#25 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,585
|
To quote supafly: "Awww, my frickin' head!"
Meaning, homeopathically curing a hangover did not work... (Yeah, I really tried) |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#26 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 470
|
I am constantly confused by the claims of homeopaths.
For one, there is the British (classical) and French schools. French prescripts separate "substances" or mixes of substances to treat specific diseases. Think Boiron. There are people who swear by those remedies. Then, there are those for whom a homeopath need not even have a diagnosis, but merely draw a picture of the person's symptoms and personality, and prescribe the best possible remedy, but of only one kind. Then, there is the Organon itself, the deluded writings of Mr. Hahneman. In it, he explicitly claims that homeopathy is not for surgical cases or acute conditions. Why then the sepsis study? And what remedy? Besides, the results of the study are not statistically significant. Was the study replicated? Important thingy. Sometimes homeopaths who swear by the British-classical-two hour interview homeopathy will gladly quote the research of Boiron. What I have noticed- homeopathy is like a religion. It is quasi-scientific, mystical, with a touch of alchemy to it and a chance to throw in quantum mechanics, if you are so inclined. So, the adherents will constantly move the goalposts, quote failed studies and all the time violate their own principles (such as claiming how important it is to have a personalized cure while at the same time recommenting a certain remedy over an internet forum). I am constantly pissed when people use homeopathy for children, sometimes forgoing other treatment. As for the alcohol preparation: when dilluted, it should actually be a hangover remedy. And dilluted coffee should be a sleeping pill. |
__________________
"This isn't right. This isn't even wrong." Wolfgang Pauli |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#27 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,585
|
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#28 |
New Blood
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1
|
I though I’d share an amusing story my wife relayed to me. Her friend, our friendly neighbourhood alternative healer, left a bottle of homeopathic pills unattended at home, which were then swallowed by her daughter. Frantic, she phoned the British Homeopathic Society, who told her not to worry – the child would not suffer any ill effects!
I wonder whether they believe it themselves. |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#29 |
Eats shoots and leaves.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: South Carolina
Posts: 8,217
|
|
__________________
"Truth does not contradict truth." - St. Augustine "Faith often contradicts faith. Therefore faith is not an indication of truth." - RenaissanceBiker Last edited by RenaissanceBiker; 18th May 2007 at 10:00 AM. Reason: I'm wearing a pair of these now. |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#30 |
Thinker
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 201
|
Let's take this issue seriously
I appreciate good skeptical thinking, and yet, am I the only one who thinks that no one responded to the numerous basic science and clinical studies that Dana Ullman referenced?
Am I the only one who think that Ullman also gave a good, solid critique of that questionably done "meta-analysis" that sought to compare 110 homeopathic and allopathic studies? Am I the only one who is surprised that even the skeptics who did this study found that the homeopathic studies had a larger number of higher percentage of higher quality studies than the allopathic studies (by THEIR own definition of high quality studies). At first blush, homeopathy seems weird to me too, but heck, nature is full of mysteries. Humility is a healthy scientific attitude. |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#31 |
Ovis ex Machina
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sir Ddinbych
Posts: 6,899
|
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#32 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 10,226
|
I attempted to respond to the critique of the metanalysis (thanks for pointing that out Mashuna). I don't think that I would call it a "good, solid critique" as many of the criticisms were not valid or were irrelevant. For example, no meaningful conclusions can be drawn about differences in the percentage of high quality studies, since two different methods were used to obtain that number. For the homeopathy group it is a population value (i.e. all the homeopathy studies of that type were included) and for the conventional medicine group it is a sample value. Since the sample was not drawn randomly, but rather selected, it is a biased sample on that value and cannot be used to make general predictions about the percentage of high quality studies among conventional medicine trials. Also, the measures of quality were fairly gross and only really differed on one measure (concealment of allocation) - it more likely represented a variation in whether it was reported, than in the actual performance.
Ullman's critique would be relevant if one were talking about disproving homeopathy. The analysis does not exclude the possibility that there is a real effect. However, since homeopathy is without supporting evidence independent of the results of clinical trials, it is sufficient to point out that there are alternate explanations for those results. And the support for those alternate explanations does not need to be robust, it simply needs to be plausible - a standard the meta-analysis easily acheives. Ullman also makes the common mistake of thinking that individual trials demonstrating the effects of a "special" water provides support for homeopathy. At best, all it can demonstrate is that a particular water may have a therapeutic effect in a particular condition. But it doesn't tell us why. The analogy I have used in the past is "alfabetopathy". If I choose a drug that starts with the same letter as the condition it is meant to treat and a clinical trial shows that the drug is effective, that doesn't mean that I have proven that drugs can be chosen on the basis of their initial letters. It is true that many people who are skeptical of homeopathy are ignorant of the details, but that is true of anything in science - no one person has adequate knowledge, but collectively we do. The skepticism is based on trust in the process of the objective evaluation from those in the field, rather than based on the wishful thinking of individuals. I think the comments in this thread have been directed at evaluating those things that we are competent to evaluate, such as whether appeals to longevity are valid or whether it is "silly" to perform studies that remove/reduce the effects of chance and bias. I agree that humility is important, but why assume skepticism reflects a lack of humility? It seems to me that it is the skeptics, who realize that we are all subject to cognitive biases and therefore need to actively avoid their effects, who demonstrate humility. It is the homeopaths who somehow seem to think they are immune from bias and can trust their "clinical experience" who suffer from a lack of humility. Linda |
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#33 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 52,955
|
|
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#34 |
Mage Questor
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,125
|
It's not even as simple as substance --> water --> pill. Many of the substances don't dissolve in water, so a solvent such as alcohol is used. So alcohol (a hydroxylated hydrocarbon, C2H5OH) acts the same as water (an inorganic ionic polar molecule H+OH-) works the same as sugar (a disaccharide whose formula I can't remember).
Hang on a minute... they all have hydroxyl groups... maybe THAT's the magic ingredient! So caustic soda (NaOH) ought to work, too! Perhaps Dana would consider producing a homeopathic solution of ammonia in caustic soda and chugging it down. The two alkalis should cancel themselves out. |
__________________
I don't believe in God. I stopped needing a comfort blanket a long time ago. |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#35 |
Perfectly Poisonous Person
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Wacky Washington Way Out West
Posts: 4,432
|
Ullman has shown up on Orac's blog with the exact same rant!
I love the fact that this part where he says...
Quote:
But there was a response that I wish I could read: Treating critically ill patients with sugar pills. .... especially after reading what the author of that comment says about Homeopathic hospitals in his website,
Quote:
|
__________________
I used to be intelligent... but then I had kids "HCN, I hate you!" ( so sayeth Deetee at http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=1077344 )... What I get for linking to http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/ ![]() |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#36 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 897
|
|
__________________
Holford Watch: the truth about Patrick Holford, media nutritionist. |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#37 |
Perfectly Poisonous Person
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Wacky Washington Way Out West
Posts: 4,432
|
|
__________________
I used to be intelligent... but then I had kids "HCN, I hate you!" ( so sayeth Deetee at http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=1077344 )... What I get for linking to http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/ ![]() |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#38 |
Muse
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 897
|
|
__________________
Holford Watch: the truth about Patrick Holford, media nutritionist. |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#39 |
Perfectly Poisonous Person
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Wacky Washington Way Out West
Posts: 4,432
|
Done... oh, and I took the liberty of checking out some of his other claims, particularly the one on Oscillococcinum. He claims that studies showing it as good for influenza were replicated. I checked, but could not really find them. Edit to add: I did call him dishonest... in fact he is a liar who is posting all over trying to get business over to himself!
|
__________________
I used to be intelligent... but then I had kids "HCN, I hate you!" ( so sayeth Deetee at http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=1077344 )... What I get for linking to http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/ ![]() |
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
#40 |
Student
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 30
|
I suspect that JamesGully is Dana Ullman, judging by the tone of his post, his recent reg-date, and an email I received from Dana where he chided me for sharing his previous e-mail with all of you "randi-holics[sic]."
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
Thread Tools | |
|
|