Replacement of the bonds by gold

wogoga

Critical Thinker
W
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Messages
334
Hello,

I'm Wolfgang Gasser from Liechtenstein (not Lichtenstein) who applied once for the 1 Million $ prize (showthread.php?t=48248).

I'm still optimistic that in the end I'll get the prize, at least if a proof of reincarnation and/or a panpsychistic foundation of physics still qualifies for winning the prize.

Future will show more and more that I'm right, especially the demographic evolution of mankind (because of "demographic saturation"). If we accept reincarnation then the "missing girls" problem of China has a simple natural explanation, namely the substantially lower mortality of women with respect to men. The explanation propagated by the mass media implies that in China every year around one million girls are killed before or after birth. There are numerous other empirical facts suggesting reincarnation.

The physical experiment of my previous application also works as expected by me and thus shows that modern physics is completely wrong in many respects. Because it becomes easier and easier to measure the propagation speed of electric and magnetic interactions it will become more and more difficult to dismiss the results by simply declaring them to be caused by some unexplainded measurement errors, as it has been done for more than a century.

It seems quite improbable to me that the James Randi prize will be won earlier by someone else.

But what I actually fear is that by inflation (even in the next weeks or months) the prize could lose its worth. So wouldn't it make sense to replace the negotiable bonds worth a million dollars by gold? Think about it, a prize offered by any past culture in gold would still be valuable whereas most past currencies and other paper values are now completely worthless.

Cheers, Wolfgang
 
Hello, Wolfgang. It is very brave of you to come to the forum, and even more brave to reference the Challenge thread which detailed your previous unsuccessful attempts. I'm pleasantly surprised.

I would say, and this is just my opinion, that a discussion of how the $1M is kept is pointless. The rules state that the money is to be held in negotiable bonds, and those rules are seldom, if ever, changed for an applicant.

I would worry more about how you plan on demonstrating your latest claim. I am also interested in knowing why you weren't able to get affidavits for the FTL transmission experiment.

Would you be interested in continuing the discussion along these lines?
 
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Hello Wolfgang

wogoga said:
The physical experiment of my previous application also works as expected by me and thus shows that modern physics is completely wrong in many respects. Because it becomes easier and easier to measure the propagation speed of electric and magnetic interactions it will become more and more difficult to dismiss the results by simply declaring them to be caused by some unexplainded measurement errors, as it has been done for more than a century.
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First, you are talking about reincarnation. And now about "electric and magnetic interactions". Is this another paranormal issue? What results of what experiments are there being ignored or dismissed by modern physicians?

wogoga said:
But what I actually fear is that by inflation (even in the next weeks or months) the prize could lose its worth. So wouldn't it make sense to replace the negotiable bonds worth a million dollars by gold? Think about it, a prize offered by any past culture in gold would still be valuable whereas most past currencies and other paper values are now completely worthless.

Cheers, Wolfgang
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You do have a point there. But on the other hand, gold is not stable in it's worth either. It always changes and it would somewhat disappoint people if the One Million Dollar Challenge prize suddenly is worth only 800000 Dollar or the like.

The Dollar could indeed lose a lot of it's worth. I don't want to go into details, but as a matter of fact, it is possible that the Dollar will become more or less worthless in the near future. But that wouldn't go unnoticed. It would mean the collapse of the world economy and it would take only a very short amount of time. So it can happen, but is very unprobably, that you win the prize exactly by the time the crash happens.
 
Prewitt81 brought up good points.

If I understand the situation correctly, Goldman Sachs is in "some" trouble but not in "big" trouble. I do not estimate the JREF Million to be in any jeopardy.

However, wogoga, the past of this subforum clearly indicates that would-be applicants inquiring about the JREF Prize - and making suggestions how to transform the money into something of their liking - without making a specific claim usually do not have any intent to proceed to the testing stage or even apply.

How about taking it step by step, i.e.: What is your claim and how do you intend to prove it?
 
Would it really matter? The prize is $1 million US, period, regardless of the value of whatever is backing it up, be it gold, bonds, platinum, paper currency or whatever. It is also going to be $1 million US, regardless of the then-value of the US dollar on the world market. If the bonds are worth only $900,000 at the time the prize is won, Randi has to dig into his piggy bank for the shortfall; if they're worth $1.1 million, Randi funds the next TAM/cruise, himself, with the overage. If the dollar is only worth 1/10 of a Euro, you still only get $1 million and you're just out of luck; if it's worth 25 Euros, you're in clover.

Come to think of it, even at 1/10 Euro, $900,000.00 would be nothing to be sneezed at. What's your problem?
 
Actually the bonds are worth $1 million QED. The reason they are held as bonds is that they can easily be converted in cash and they earn interest. The interest is partly used to run JREF.

Gold does not earn any interest and the value can go up as well as down.
 
wogoga said:
Hello,

I'm Wolfgang Gasser from Liechtenstein (not Lichtenstein) who applied once for the 1 Million $ prize (showthread.php?t=48248).

I'm still optimistic that in the end I'll get the prize, at least if a proof of reincarnation and/or a panpsychistic foundation of physics still qualifies for winning the prize.

Future will show more and more that I'm right, especially the demographic evolution of mankind (because of "demographic saturation"). If we accept reincarnation then the "missing girls" problem of China has a simple natural explanation, namely the substantially lower mortality of women with respect to men. The explanation propagated by the mass media implies that in China every year around one million girls are killed before or after birth. There are numerous other empirical facts suggesting reincarnation.

The physical experiment of my previous application also works as expected by me and thus shows that modern physics is completely wrong in many respects. Because it becomes easier and easier to measure the propagation speed of electric and magnetic interactions it will become more and more difficult to dismiss the results by simply declaring them to be caused by some unexplainded measurement errors, as it has been done for more than a century.

It seems quite improbable to me that the James Randi prize will be won earlier by someone else.

But what I actually fear is that by inflation (even in the next weeks or months) the prize could lose its worth. So wouldn't it make sense to replace the negotiable bonds worth a million dollars by gold? Think about it, a prize offered by any past culture in gold would still be valuable whereas most past currencies and other paper values are now completely worthless.

Cheers, Wolfgang
Click to expand...

Hello and welcome to the forum.

I would like to tell you something that you may or may not have thought about yourself. The million dollars offered by the JREF is peanuts money compared to the fame and fortune you would earn if you proved a paranormal claim. You will be known worldwide, be offered any amount of money you wished for just to come and give presentations of your power or give lectures on the subject of your proven ability. Your name will be mentioned in the same sentence as Einstein, Newton and Galilleo.

The JREF is your opportunity to all this glory. Forget about small issues like if the bonds are worth exactly $1M or $900,000. Look at the big picture $$$. :jaw-dropp

So, now let's see if you got the power. What's your claim?

Regards,
Yair
 
I've looked over Wolfgang's previous MDC submission, and I have to admit that it makes just as much sense now as it did then.

A small aside to Mr. Gasser: "self evident" does not mean the same thing as "evident only to one's self".
 
yairhol said:
Hello and welcome to the forum.

I would like to tell you something that you may or may not have thought about yourself. The million dollars offered by the JREF is peanuts money compared to the fame and fortune you would earn if you proved a paranormal claim. You will be known worldwide, be offered any amount of money you wished for just to come and give presentations of your power or give lectures on the subject of your proven ability. Your name will be mentioned in the same sentence as Einstein, Newton and Galilleo.

The JREF is your opportunity to all this glory. Forget about small issues like if the bonds are worth exactly $1M or $900,000. Look at the big picture $$$. :jaw-dropp

So, now let's see if you got the power. What's your claim?

Regards,
Yair
Click to expand...

This sums up my take on the matter almost exactly. It surprises me that many with claims do not seem to seriously consider this.
 
wogoga said:
Future will show more and more that I'm right, especially the demographic evolution of mankind (because of "demographic saturation"). If we accept reincarnation then the "missing girls" problem of China has a simple natural explanation, namely the substantially lower mortality of women with respect to men. The explanation propagated by the mass media implies that in China every year around one million girls are killed before or after birth. There are numerous other empirical facts suggesting reincarnation.
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I am having a hard time following your claims here. Would you elaborate?
 
There is a point to be had here, that one day $1 million could be little incentive as inflation continues.

However, the prize offered has not always been $1 million. It started as $10,000 some time ago. (20 years?). That's 20-25% APR I believe, which seems to sufficiently stave off inflation for now.

In any event, there is a significant flaw to the plan of holding the prize award in gold: it will deter alchemest and dowsing applicants that claim easy access to gold through transmutation or digging. After all, if they can get gold that easily then why do they want more from JREF? ;)
 
wogoga said:
But what I actually fear is that by inflation (even in the next weeks or months) the prize could lose its worth. So wouldn't it make sense to replace the negotiable bonds worth a million dollars by gold? Think about it, a prize offered by any past culture in gold would still be valuable whereas most past currencies and other paper values are now completely worthless.
Click to expand...

The OP, and some other posters, seem to to misunderstand the inflation problem. It's not that, in 10 years, the prize will be only worth $800,000 or something like that. The prize offered is $1,000,000 US dollars, in the same way that my cell phone contract is specified to be $39.00/month. It's not offered as $1,000,000 2001-adjusted US dollars, nor $1,000,000 of (2001-adjusted) purchasing power in Canada, nor is it 500,000 British pounds, nor 1,000,000,000,000 1931-adjusted German marks ... just like my cell phone rate isn't recalculated daily to keep a constant value in euros, Franklin Mint collectibles, or loaves of bread.

Everything fluctuates. If the prize had been converted to 2500 ounces of gold in 1995, it'd have been worth $1,000,000 then, $700,000 in 2000, and about $1,100,000 today. So what? You have no more certainty today that gold is about to rise, than you did in 1995 that gold was about to fall. Seriously: If you could make such predictions, being right more often than wrong, you could quickly earn much much more than $1,000,000 by acting as a currency trader.

Yes, most old currencies are "now worthless". That's why Randi isn't holding $1M in cash in a mattress---he's holding it in bonds, on which he earns interest. Some of those bonds (for all you know) may be invested in gold by the bank, and the appreciation of gold may be already contributing to that interest.

Anyway. Randi has put his $1,000,000, dollar-denominated offer on the table. That money stands as a challenge to you. If you win it, get moving---once you have the money you can buy gold (or euros, or Franklin Mint collectibles, or whatever) yourself. If you can't win it, you're in no position to worry about whether the $1,000,000 USD you didn't win is worth 900,000 Euro or 700,000 Euro.

And, of course, you're welcome to apply to the other large-value paranormal challenges denominated in currencies you like better.

HOWEVER, as a generous gift, I will PERSONALLY DOUBLE the value of the JREF prize in solid commodities. I will offer 35kg of aluminium to the JREF prize pool; in 1850, this would have been worth about as much as 45kg of gold, or $1M today. Since you're so confident in precious metal as an investment, you should be overjoyed to accept this component of the prize. (Note: prize may consist primarily of crushed or non-deposit soda cans.) I can also contribute a few pounds of cinnamon (worth its weight in gold in 1500) and a contract to buy tulip bulbs from my lawn (ditto in early 17th c. Holland). Bring on the commodities-based paranormal challenges!!
 
ben m said:
The OP, and some other posters, seem to to misunderstand the inflation problem. It's not that, in 10 years, the prize will be only worth $800,000 or something like that. The prize offered is $1,000,000 US dollars, in the same way that my cell phone contract is specified to be $39.00/month. It's not offered as $1,000,000 2001-adjusted US dollars, nor $1,000,000 of (2001-adjusted) purchasing power in Canada, nor is it 500,000 British pounds, nor 1,000,000,000,000 1931-adjusted German marks ... just like my cell phone rate isn't recalculated daily to keep a constant value in euros, Franklin Mint collectibles, or loaves of bread.

Everything fluctuates. If the prize had been converted to 2500 ounces of gold in 1995, it'd have been worth $1,000,000 then, $700,000 in 2000, and about $1,100,000 today. So what? You have no more certainty today that gold is about to rise, than you did in 1995 that gold was about to fall. Seriously: If you could make such predictions, being right more often than wrong, you could quickly earn much much more than $1,000,000 by acting as a currency trader.

Yes, most old currencies are "now worthless". That's why Randi isn't holding $1M in cash in a mattress---he's holding it in bonds, on which he earns interest. Some of those bonds (for all you know) may be invested in gold by the bank, and the appreciation of gold may be already contributing to that interest.

Anyway. Randi has put his $1,000,000, dollar-denominated offer on the table. That money stands as a challenge to you. If you win it, get moving---once you have the money you can buy gold (or euros, or Franklin Mint collectibles, or whatever) yourself. If you can't win it, you're in no position to worry about whether the $1,000,000 USD you didn't win is worth 900,000 Euro or 700,000 Euro.

And, of course, you're welcome to apply to the other large-value paranormal challenges denominated in currencies you like better.

HOWEVER, as a generous gift, I will PERSONALLY DOUBLE the value of the JREF prize in solid commodities. I will offer 35kg of aluminium to the JREF prize pool; in 1850, this would have been worth about as much as 45kg of gold, or $1M today. Since you're so confident in precious metal as an investment, you should be overjoyed to accept this component of the prize. (Note: prize may consist primarily of crushed or non-deposit soda cans.) I can also contribute a few pounds of cinnamon (worth its weight in gold in 1500) and a contract to buy tulip bulbs from my lawn (ditto in early 17th c. Holland). Bring on the commodities-based paranormal challenges!!
Click to expand...

You definitely have to post more, ben m. Especially the last paragraph made me laugh out loud.

(Highlighting and embiggening by me.)
 
Ben m --- we used to have a thread about lame excuses for not taking the JREF Challenge; perhaps someone could dig it up. I've never seen wogoga's inflation excuse before, and I think that you provided a great smackdown.
 
wogoga said:
But what I actually fear is that by inflation (even in the next weeks or months) the prize could lose its worth. So wouldn't it make sense to replace the negotiable bonds worth a million dollars by gold? Think about it, a prize offered by any past culture in gold would still be valuable whereas most past currencies and other paper values are now completely worthless.
Click to expand...

I don't get it, Wolfgang. Can you please explain how you couldn't use the bonds you win to purchase a million dollars worth of gold? I don't understand what kind of circumstances would make this impossible.
 
wogoga said:
Future will show more and more that I'm right, especially the demographic evolution of mankind (because of "demographic saturation"). If we accept reincarnation then the "missing girls" problem of China has a simple natural explanation, namely the substantially lower mortality of women with respect to men. The explanation propagated by the mass media implies that in China every year around one million girls are killed before or after birth. There are numerous other empirical facts suggesting reincarnation.
Click to expand...
I'll address this issue only, as I'm actually living in China, and have been here over 14 years.

You seem to consider the idea of "killing one million girls a year" to be unreasonable. However, abortions of female fetuses is quite common (even though it has been outlawed by the Chinese gov't), and in a country of 1.3 billion people, that is not a terribly large number. The total number of abortion each year in the U.S. is conservatively around 1.5 million; that would mean approximately 750,000 females are aborted each year. China's population is four times larger than the U.S., so a reasonable expectation would be 6 million abortions a year, 3 million of which would be female, if male and female fetuses were aborted at equal rates. However, that is not the case. Female fetuses are aborted at far higher rates than are male fetuses. Thus, a difference of one million more females being aborted is completely reasonable.

In addition to this, you seem to be arguing that lower mortality rates for women mean that fewer women are available to be reincarnated, and this explains the higher number of males. But there are countries that have more females than males (which entirely blows your hypothesis); besides which, it is my understanding that by far the majority of those who believe in reincarnation believe that you can be reincarnated as a male or a female, regardless of your gender in your previous life...so the ratio of men and women who are dying would have no correlation to the number of men and women who are being reincarnated.

And if you are going to say that men will be reincarnated as men, and women will be reincarnated as women, more female babies are killed in China than male babies, so we should be seeing more and more female babies being reincarnated!!

None of this disproves reincarnation; but more than adequately demonstrates that your justifications or proofs of reincarnation are severely lacking. The male/female imbalance in China is 100% explainable by the Chinese preference for male children over female children; you offer a 'solution' for a puzzle that doesn't exist.
 
Wolfman said:
In addition to this, you seem to be arguing that lower mortality rates for women mean that fewer women are available to be reincarnated, and this explains the higher number of males. But there are countries that have more females than males (which entirely blows your hypothesis);
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Well, I was about to make a post pointing out that overall there are more women than men in the world, but according to the CIA factbook that's not actually the case anymore. As of July 2007 the estimated total females is 3,278,616,036 and total males is 3,323,608,139. Not that this proves anything, but I just thought it was interesting since I've always been told there were more women.
 
wogoga said:
But what I actually fear is that by inflation (even in the next weeks or months) the prize could lose its worth. So wouldn't it make sense to replace the negotiable bonds worth a million dollars by gold? Think about it, a prize offered by any past culture in gold would still be valuable whereas most past currencies and other paper values are now completely worthless.
Click to expand...
Others have pointed out many excellent points about how this is a) irrelevant, and b) wrong, but I figured I would throw in my 2 cents...

Inflation is a risk to any investment. If you are worried about inflation (US inflation rate is currently about 2.36%) being a problem, you simple hedge that risk. The simplest hedging strategy is not to buy commodities, such as gold, but to buy inflation linked bondsWP. Inflation is no longer an issue.
 
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