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-   -   Covid-19 and Politics (https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342577)

Planigale 18th June 2020 12:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13128394)
UK Track and trace app won't be working until the winter (meaning never).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53083340

It used to be a prerequisite for lockdown restrictions being lifted.

Premiership Football is back so all is well :mad:

I think you misinterpret what the article says,

Quote:

Now it seems the Isle of Wight trial has confirmed that most prefer the more human touch of a phone call.
The team behind the app have an updated version ready to go which they feel addresses many of the concerns.
So the article does not say that the app does not work (as an app), but that humans do the job better. Whilst there is the wetware resource available and this is empirically the best tool for the job, then it seems sensible to go with the wetware and reserve the software for a possible surge when further resources are needed. (From an economic PoV employing people rather than electrons to do the job is probably better.)

Planigale 18th June 2020 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13129063)
Covid-19 has already killed more British civilians than the Luftwaffe. :mad:

We're already there and yet Boris Johnson, his cronies and his government aren't getting the kicking they deserve. Instead we have headlines about miracle cures (as if Boris Johnson himself did the research), Premier League Football being back and the pubs being open soon.


Is this true, good sound bite, but can I trust what you post?

Current UK deaths from covid-19 about 40,000. Total UK civilian deaths from bombing 60,000.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...covid-19-cases
https://humanities.exeter.ac.uk/hist...mbing/britain/
You may be correct if you are limiting it to the 'Blitz'.

The Don 18th June 2020 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129134)
I think you misinterpret what the article says,

So the article does not say that the app does not work (as an app), but that humans do the job better. Whilst there is the wetware resource available and this is empirically the best tool for the job, then it seems sensible to go with the wetware and reserve the software for a possible surge when further resources are needed. (From an economic PoV employing people rather than electrons to do the job is probably better.)

Not at all. Originally the government said that a track and trace app was a prerequisite for lifting lockdown restriction. Here we are with lockdown restrictions being lifted and no track and trace app.

The government may claim that its down to personal preference but the weasel words used don't pass the sniff test IMO:

Quote:

He also added that the trial on the Isle of Wight had shown that some people preferred humans to do the contact tracing.
"Some" people's preference causing the rollout to be postponed ? Pull the other one. I've been involved with enough large UK government IT projects to recognise the pattern. Some people (rather a lot actually) didn't want to move to Universal Credit but that didn't stop the government pressing ahead (despite the issues with the pilot).

Of course another important part of the puzzle is how well the human tracers are faring. The latest edition of Private Eye has some very interesting content about who is doing the tracing, how effective the scripts for the non-medically trained staff are and how busy the tracers are. It's dispiriting reading :(.

The Don 18th June 2020 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129137)
Is this true, good sound bite, but can I trust what you post?

Current UK deaths from covid-19 about 40,000. Total UK civilian deaths from bombing 60,000.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...covid-19-cases
https://humanities.exeter.ac.uk/hist...mbing/britain/
You may be correct if you are limiting it to the 'Blitz'.

You're talking about the headline daily number which has specific exclusions.

An extrapolation of the number released by the ONS in the last couple of days was 53,000 and the number of excess deaths is a further 12,000+ so I'm pretty happy saying that Coronavirus has killed more people in the UK UK civilians than the Luftwaffe (not least because a significant proportion of the 60,000 killed will have been service personnel).

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-16/...t-ons-figures/

Pixel42 18th June 2020 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129137)
Is this true, good sound bite, but can I trust what you post?

Current UK deaths from covid-19 about 40,000.

That's deaths with positive result. Excess deaths are now over 64,000. So it depends how you count them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

The Don 18th June 2020 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 (Post 13129144)
That's deaths with positive result. Excess deaths are now over 64,000. So it depends how you count them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Actually maybe I should falsely concede the point and suggest that the government should proudly announce:

"The UK's Coronavirus response - not quite as effective as the Luftwaffe" :rolleyes:

Andy_Ross 18th June 2020 02:05 AM

Plenty of time though, the war lasted for years.

McHrozni 18th June 2020 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13129191)
Plenty of time though, the war lasted for years.

"UK's Coronavirus response - worse than the Luftwaffe, but at least it didn't last as long".

McHrozni

The Don 18th June 2020 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13129193)
"UK's Coronavirus response - worse than the Luftwaffe, but at least it didn't last as long".

McHrozni

What a snappy turn of phrase. You should expect a job offer from Mr Cummings any time now. :D

P.J. Denyer 18th June 2020 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13129191)
Plenty of time though, the war lasted for years.

Given Johnson's desire to be like Churchill, forum members located in Coventry may wish to stay with friends for a while.

jimbob 18th June 2020 03:16 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129137)
Is this true, good sound bite, but can I trust what you post?

Current UK deaths from covid-19 about 40,000. Total UK civilian deaths from bombing 60,000.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...covid-19-cases
https://humanities.exeter.ac.uk/hist...mbing/britain/
You may be correct if you are limiting it to the 'Blitz'.

There was significant under-counting at the peak of the epidemic in the UK.

I got into a Twitter argument with someone who was claiming that the number of deaths was no worse than a bad flu season, for example the winter of 2017-2018, so I looked at the ONS weekly deaths data for England and Wales only for 2017, 2018, and 2020 and compared them with the 2018 5-year average and the number of deaths where COVID-19 was shown on the death certificate.

You can clearly see the undercounting of 2-4 thousand a week during the main peak of the epidemic.

It also gives you an idea of the expected variation in death numbers.

Remember this is only for England and Wales as that's an easy set of numbers to get.

The numbers are week numbers and this is to week 22
Attachment 42420

ETA: you can also see the impact of the bank holiday on the death registrations in weeks 19 and 20

Squeegee Beckenheim 18th June 2020 05:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129134)
I think you misinterpret what the article says,



So the article does not say that the app does not work (as an app), but that humans do the job better. Whilst there is the wetware resource available and this is empirically the best tool for the job, then it seems sensible to go with the wetware and reserve the software for a possible surge when further resources are needed. (From an economic PoV employing people rather than electrons to do the job is probably better.)

I wonder if the people have received any training yet?

McHrozni 18th June 2020 05:13 AM

Ten US states are seeing resurgance and the Second Coming: Alabama, Arizona, California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas.

I'm remindied of the Battleship row for some reason.

McHrozni

jimbob 18th June 2020 05:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13129271)
Ten US states are seeing resurgance and the Second Coming: Alabama, Arizona, California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas.

I'm remindied of the Battleship row for some reason.

McHrozni

I'm not sure California ever finished it's first wave

Guybrush Threepwood 18th June 2020 05:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13129149)
Actually maybe I should falsely concede the point and suggest that the government should proudly announce:

"The UK's Coronavirus response - not quite as effective as the Luftwaffe" :rolleyes:

And no Vera Lynn to get you through this one :(

The Don 18th June 2020 07:46 AM

The government strongly suggested that the decision not to roll out the track and trace application wasn't due to the fact that the application was a complete failure and was instead because "some people" expressed a preference in dealing with human trackers.

That explanation has been undermined somewhat by this annoucement:

Quote:

In a major U-turn, the UK is ditching the way its current coronavirus-tracing app works and shifting to a model based on technology provided by Apple and Google.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336

There's no problem with the technology, but in a completely unrelated move, the government has decided to change to a different technology. :rolleyes:

I've been involved with a number of large government IT projects and sooner or later the idea of a Version 0 comes up, a face-saving, low functionality release to spare blushes - all this has the whiff of a Version 0 in the offing:

Quote:

The government now intends to launch an app in the autumn, however it says the product may not involve contact tracing at that point.

Instead the software may be limited to enabling users to report their symptoms and order a test.
In other words, none of the actual difficult functionality. I've had a Covid-19 symptom tracking app on my phone for months as part of a large study. The much vaunted government application which is still months away doesn't provide much more functionality than that.

What a complete shambles :mad:

Tolls 18th June 2020 08:04 AM

This new "miracle treatment".
Um...it would have saved 4000 lives.

OK, not to be sneezed at (if you'll pardon the expression), but that's only 1 in 10.
It's hardly the discovery of penicillin.

I expect every idiot will now go "yay, we can all get back to normal".

The Don 18th June 2020 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tolls (Post 13129440)
This new "miracle treatment".
Um...it would have saved 4000 lives.

OK, not to be sneezed at (if you'll pardon the expression), but that's only 1 in 10.
It's hardly the discovery of penicillin.

I expect every idiot will now go "yay, we can all get back to normal".

Looking at the UK's numbers they look rather bleak. We have 300,000 positive tests and 42,000 deaths. Even if each positive test were a unique person, that's a death rate of 14%.

Now I realise that comparatively few people have been tested and so the number of people who have, or who have had Coronavirus is likely to be many times the 300,000 who have tested positive but dayumm them's some high numbers.

If we can get a grip on chemical prevention (maybe if no-one were vitamin D deficient then the number of deaths would be lower) and get to treating with steroids and anti-coagulants early then maybe a positive diagnosis isn't quite the death sentence that it currently seems to be. :o

Trebuchet 18th June 2020 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13129271)
Ten US states are seeing resurgance and the Second Coming: Alabama, Arizona, California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas.

I'm remindied of the Battleship row for some reason.

McHrozni

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbob (Post 13129279)
I'm not sure California ever finished it's first wave

None of them did.
Nearly 6000 new cases in Florida between yesterday and today, and today's not over.

lomiller 18th June 2020 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13128394)

Premiership Football is back so all is well :mad:

Thatís Soccer to you now that BJ is adopting US standards to get a trade agreement. :p

P.J. Denyer 18th June 2020 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomiller (Post 13129620)
Thatís Soccer to you now that BJ is adopting US standards to get a trade agreement. :p

Soccer players will adjust. Netball and Rounders players are rubbing their hands. Rugby players are in for a shock....

Darat 18th June 2020 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13129413)
The government strongly suggested that the decision not to roll out the track and trace application wasn't due to the fact that the application was a complete failure and was instead because "some people" expressed a preference in dealing with human trackers.

That explanation has been undermined somewhat by this annoucement:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336

There's no problem with the technology, but in a completely unrelated move, the government has decided to change to a different technology. :rolleyes:

I've been involved with a number of large government IT projects and sooner or later the idea of a Version 0 comes up, a face-saving, low functionality release to spare blushes - all this has the whiff of a Version 0 in the offing:



In other words, none of the actual difficult functionality. I've had a Covid-19 symptom tracking app on my phone for months as part of a large study. The much vaunted government application which is still months away doesn't provide much more functionality than that.

What a complete shambles :mad:

The leaked "reason" is that it wasn't working very well on iPhones... colour me surprised that Apple wasn't going to expose hardware and alter their permission and notification system just for the UK for their tracking when they have refused to do so to everyone else in the world and provided an API that could have been used.

What makes this even more jaw dropping is that this isn't the 1st time this has happened for the UK government.

Planigale 18th June 2020 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pixel42 (Post 13129144)
That's deaths with positive result. Excess deaths are now over 64,000. So it depends how you count them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


But then you would need to count excess deaths not directly due to bombing but attributable to bombing.

These comparisons of apples and onions are really pretty pointless. Lots of people died that is a bad and a sad thing. Comparing it some other awful thing makes it no better or worse.

It is slightly less use than pointing out deaths from TB this year (a curable bacterial airborne infection) are twice those from covid-19. If the world got itself together and spent as much effort on controlling TB and HIV as they have on covid-19 they would be pretty well eradicated. TB and HIV kill young people, every year, they did last year and they will next year and they will be doing so when covid-19 is no longer an issue.

catsmate 18th June 2020 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129134)
I think you misinterpret what the article says,

No.
1. BuBu and his "government" stated that a track and trace app was a prerequisite for lifting lockdown restrictions.
2. Restrictsions are being lifted without a functional app of this nature.
:rolleyes:

catsmate 18th June 2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Planigale (Post 13129137)
Is this true, good sound bite, but can I trust what you post?

Can we trust anything you post?

Total Covid-19 excess deaths: ~65k
Total confirmed Covid-19 deaths: ~42k
Total UK 'Blitz' fatalities: ~40-43k
Total UK civilian fatalities: ~67k
Total UK civilian fatalities from aerial bombing: ~61k

catsmate 18th June 2020 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13129149)
Actually maybe I should falsely concede the point and suggest that the government should proudly announce:

"The UK's Coronavirus response - not quite as effective as the Luftwaffe" :rolleyes:

Oh there are plenty more to come. I'd say by the end of July even BuBu's apologists won't be able to hide the reality of the numbers.

catsmate 18th June 2020 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13129191)
Plenty of time though, the war lasted for years.

True, the 'Blitz' lasted eleven months, Steinbock lasted three months and the rockets nine.

catsmate 18th June 2020 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer (Post 13129195)
Given Johnson's desire to be like Churchill, forum members located in Coventry may wish to stay with friends for a while.

Stuck on a plinth in Parliament Square and occasionally daubed with paint?

Andy_Ross 18th June 2020 03:07 PM

The Govt have quietly announced they are terminating student nurse 6 month contracts out of the blue, after paying them for only one month of Covid-19 work, leaving them without income as a good number gave up other work to take the contracts.
Why is no one talking about this?

jadebox 18th June 2020 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McHrozni (Post 13129271)
Ten US states are seeing resurgance and the Second Coming: Alabama, Arizona, California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas.

Florida is obviously the tenth that was left out of your list. The number of cases is rising dramatically. The governor is claiming that it is due to more testing and a few hotspots so it isn't anything to worry about. Well, I am more than a little worried.

Trebuchet 18th June 2020 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadebox (Post 13130032)
Florida is obviously the tenth that was left out of your list. The number of cases is rising dramatically. The governor is claiming that it is due to more testing and a few hotspots so it isn't anything to worry about. Well, I am more than a little worried.

Testing causes Coronavirus. Ask any Republican.

Puppycow 18th June 2020 08:25 PM

Tokyo lifts all coronavirus restrictions on businesses

Quote:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Tokyo lifted all restrictions on businesses on Friday amid signs that the coronavirus pandemic is waning in the Japanese capital, although concerns remain over a potential second wave of infections.

People in Japan will no longer be asked to refrain from crossing prefectural borders as the central government also lifted the restriction in the hope of giving a boost to the country's economic activities that had been slowed by the pandemic.

The metropolitan government withdrew its temporary closure request on live music venues, nightclubs and similar entertainment establishments where people come into close contact in enclosed spaces, exiting the last phase of its three-step restriction easing process.

Most other businesses had already begun operating under previous steps.
Japan, however, remains effectively closed to the vast majority of international tourists. They are going to allow some people in from a small handful of countries including Australia and New Zealand. Disneyland is still closed too and I see no announcement yet of plans to reopen.

Not sure if this is more of a science or politics question, but the live music venues and nightclubs seems a bit risky. I wonder if people will actually return to these activities in large numbers or not? Karaoke seems like another activity to avoid, but the government is allowing them to reopen.

McHrozni 18th June 2020 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadebox (Post 13130032)
Florida is obviously the tenth that was left out of your list. The number of cases is rising dramatically. The governor is claiming that it is due to more testing and a few hotspots so it isn't anything to worry about. Well, I am more than a little worried.

Florida never ended its first wave, that's why it won't have a second.

McHrozni

The Don 19th June 2020 12:08 AM

Some Welsh politicians are not happy with the UK government's approach to rushing to lift the "lockdown".

Quote:

The UK government has "given-up" on a "science-led approach" to coronavirus, a Welsh Labour minister has claimed.

Lee Waters said London-based ministers have made announcements at their daily press conferences without thinking them through.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-53077578

The Don 19th June 2020 12:19 AM

Meanwhile a pub chain owner is threatening the government:

Quote:

The founder of the pub chain Oakman Inns has vowed to reopen all of its sites on 4 July even if the government has not relaxed restrictions.

"We cannot wait for the government to make a decision," Peter Borg-Neal wrote on Twitter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53094134

"Our profits are more important than your life" :rolleyes:

The Don 19th June 2020 01:44 AM

Another BBC story looking at the statistics of how well the UK seems to have handled the Coronavirus outbreak:

Quote:

But by any measure, the UK consistently appears in this unhappy club of countries hardest hit so far. Even before the pandemic, the UK's life expectancy was lower than in many other western European countries and showed the least improvement from 2011 to 2018.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53078368

Yay for Boris Johnson and the Conservative led governments he has been part of for the last 10 years :rolleyes:

The UK used to be figuratively the "sick man of Europe" in the 1970s. The economic impact of Coronavirus has been worst in the UK so now there's a real chance that we'll e both figuratively and literally the the "sick man of Europe" in the 2020s. :mad:

KDLarsen 19th June 2020 01:59 AM

Pleasant news from the Danish government yesterday, as they're proposing opening up the borders to travellers from (and more importantly, allowing travel to) EU27 + the UK, provided that infection levels are sufficiently low (which rules out Sweden and Portugal), that local rules allows for smooth travel (ie. no quarantine, which rules out travelling to the UK and Ireland), and a suitable testing regime is in place (so we'll have to wait another week for a list of countries to be published).

Andy_Ross 19th June 2020 03:37 AM

COVID-19 alert level in the UK lowered from four to three


Hancock said the change was "a big moment for the country" and showed that the government's plan was working.

The Don 19th June 2020 03:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13130464)
COVID-19 alert level in the UK lowered from four to three


Hancock said the change was "a big moment for the country" and showed that the government's plan was working.

I suppose it depends on what the government's plan is.

If the plan is to lower the COVID-19 alert level regardless of the country's true preparedness to do so and the underlying science - then the government's plan is working.

If the plan is to have the highest per capita death toll in Europe and the longest "tail" to the first wave of infection - then the government's plan is working.

If the plan is to respond effectively to the biggest public health emergency in decades - then the government's plan is not really working. The parts of the UK which control their own destiny, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Channel Islands, Isle of Man and so on seem to be doing a much better job of managing Coronavirus than England.

Arcade22 19th June 2020 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KDLarsen (Post 13130416)
Pleasant news from the Danish government yesterday, as they're proposing opening up the borders to travellers from (and more importantly, allowing travel to) EU27 + the UK, provided that infection levels are sufficiently low (which rules out Sweden and Portugal), that local rules allows for smooth travel (ie. no quarantine, which rules out travelling to the UK and Ireland), and a suitable testing regime is in place (so we'll have to wait another week for a list of countries to be published).

Actually it depends on where you live in Sweden. I live in a region that has sufficiently low level of new infections that Danes apparently feel it's safe enough to let me in. Not that I'm going to visit any time soon.

No Other 19th June 2020 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13130464)
COVID-19 alert level in the UK lowered from four to three


Hancock said the change was "a big moment for the country" and showed that the government's plan was working.

Found this article interesting:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-con...-diseases-hcid

zooterkin 19th June 2020 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13129958)
The Govt have quietly announced they are terminating student nurse 6 month contracts out of the blue, after paying them for only one month of Covid-19 work, leaving them without income as a good number gave up other work to take the contracts.
Why is no one talking about this?

Itís been in my Facebook feed for a few days now.

Andy_Ross 19th June 2020 10:55 AM

so the world beating CrapApp has cost us £250,000,000 paid to Serco and it's now in the bin.
well played, they deserve to be in prison.

catsmate 19th June 2020 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13129958)
The Govt have quietly announced they are terminating student nurse 6 month contracts out of the blue, after paying them for only one month of Covid-19 work, leaving them without income as a good number gave up other work to take the contracts.
Why is no one talking about this?

Because people are buying your government's bollocks about the Covid pandemic being basically over?

catsmate 19th June 2020 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don (Post 13130369)
Meanwhile a pub chain owner is threatening the government:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53094134

"Our profits are more important than your life" :rolleyes:

You expected different? How over here he's be roundly condemned and reminded that to be a licensee one must "be of good character" and his criminality would be brought to the judge's attention at the Licensing Sessions.
In post-Cummings era UK the government will cave.

catsmate 19th June 2020 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcade22 (Post 13130680)
Actually it depends on where you live in Sweden. I live in a region that has sufficiently low level of new infections that Danes apparently feel it's safe enough to let me in. Not that I'm going to visit any time soon.

Hmm, probably wise.

catsmate 19th June 2020 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13130968)
so the world beating CrapApp has cost us £250,000,000 paid to Serco and it's now in the bin.
well played, they deserve to be in prison.

Meh, probably not in the top thirty worst UKGov IT projects. No-one got wrongly locked up...

dudalb 19th June 2020 11:32 AM

US is headed for disaster.
And I blame the anti science arttitude on the right, for which the Christian Fundies are largely responsbile. Fact is the Fundies hate science because it conflicts with their book of Fairy Tales.

Blue Mountain 19th June 2020 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop (Post 13130968)
so the world beating CrapApp has cost us £250,000,000 paid to Serco and it's now in the bin.
well played, they deserve to be in prison.

£250,000,000?? For a bloody Android and iPhone app? I've heard of "sunk cost," but this is ridiculous! 2.5 million, maybe. But 250 million? Let me guess: one million went to the analysts and programmers, and 249 went to "consulting fees."

Also, is there a source for the 250 million number?

Mojo 19th June 2020 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puppycow (Post 13130278)
Karaoke seems like another activity to avoid...


True, but not necessarily anything to do with coronavirus.


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