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Old 8th October 2023, 08:24 AM   #241
Donal
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Originally Posted by stevea View Post
I don't understand why so many people accept RFKjr as serious person. I watched one long-form YT interview and spotted half a dozen+ kook-theories.
Vaccines (COVID & polio), big-pharma, FDA(NSAIDs), CIA-killed-Kennedy, frogs-change gender due to pollution,
he's saying what they want to hear. I had a friend message a group chat the other day about RFK Jr claiming that 4 companies are going to own 60% of the homes in the country. "He's the only politician talking about this". I tried to explain why that isn't true and how there is a housing crisis but this chucklehead doesn't have the first clue about it. His response was to accuse me of "loving corporations".
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Old 8th October 2023, 12:06 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
he's saying what they want to hear. I had a friend message a group chat the other day about RFK Jr claiming that 4 companies are going to own 60% of the homes in the country. "He's the only politician talking about this". I tried to explain why that isn't true and how there is a housing crisis but this chucklehead doesn't have the first clue about it. His response was to accuse me of "loving corporations".
Critical thinking is not a skill many have acquired. Most people rely on emotional thinking.
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Old 8th October 2023, 10:37 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
he's saying what they want to hear. I had a friend message a group chat the other day about RFK Jr claiming that 4 companies are going to own 60% of the homes in the country. "He's the only politician talking about this". I tried to explain why that isn't true and how there is a housing crisis but this chucklehead doesn't have the first clue about it. His response was to accuse me of "loving corporations".
"Big Pharma only cares about money and not making people well again. That's why they put the depopulation chip in the vaccines!"

"To kill their customers?"

"Wut? No, because... look, why do you love Big Pharma, anyway!?!?"
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Old 9th October 2023, 08:06 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
he's saying what they want to hear. I had a friend message a group chat the other day about RFK Jr claiming that 4 companies are going to own 60% of the homes in the country. "He's the only politician talking about this". I tried to explain why that isn't true and how there is a housing crisis but this chucklehead doesn't have the first clue about it. His response was to accuse me of "loving corporations".
There's definitely a draw for big capital enterprises to invest heavily in housing stock, because across the country (and abroad) there's a severe housing shortage which is driving prices heavily up.

That said, trying to pin the blame on these big investment companies is simplistic bordering on conspiratorial. Attend any local zoning meeting and you'll find plenty of ordinary people, homeowners and small time landlords, fighting tooth and nail against any policy that will increase housing supply and ease the crisis. NIMBYism is overwhelmingly a grassroots movement.

The housing crisis is 100% a self-inflicted injury in these communities, but you'll find people looking for boogiemen like big investment firms or foreigners that are somehow responsible for decades of policy making it illegal to build anything but a sprawling single family home.
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Old 9th October 2023, 01:42 PM   #245
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces he's ending Democratic primary campaign to run as independent (CBS News, Oct 9, 2023)
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Old 9th October 2023, 05:52 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
They seem to be having problems with rudimentary biology as well.
Cherry picking out anti-vaxxers doesn't represent the whole. This has been brought up over and over so you are willfully forgetting.
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Old 9th October 2023, 05:55 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by stevea View Post
I don't understand why so many people accept RFKjr as serious person. I watched one long-form YT interview and spotted half a dozen+ kook-theories.
Vaccines (COVID & polio), big-pharma, FDA(NSAIDs), CIA-killed-Kennedy, frogs-change gender due to pollution,
A lot of us also don't understand why so many people accept Trump as a serious candidate for POTUS.
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Old 9th October 2023, 07:17 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
I'm just so broken up about that.
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Old 9th October 2023, 07:27 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Lol, thought he would.

"Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment. Today's announcement is deeply saddening for us," they said in a statement. "We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country."

- 4 out of 8 Kennedy siblings of RFK Jr.

I'm not sure it's perilous for the USA. I think it takes more votes away from Trump than it does Biden.
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Old 9th October 2023, 09:16 PM   #250
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I was told by right-wings other ring-wingers find reliable that RFK jr. is polling way ahead of Biden among Democrats.
Why is he quitting when he is winning so much?
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Old 9th October 2023, 09:38 PM   #251
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Joke about it all you want, but this is pretty freakin' scary. Heard in some legitimate poll he has up to 14% support. Independents are a joker in the deck.

In a race this close, even one or two percent in the general election could easily tip the scale drawing votes away, such as it is now, IMHO. And guess who ends up as president then. Seriously, guess.
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Old 9th October 2023, 09:41 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Joke about it all you want, but this is pretty freakin' scary. Heard in some legitimate poll he has up to 14% support. Independents are a joker in the deck.

In a race this close, even one or two percent in the general election could easily tip the scale drawing votes away, such as it is now, IMHO. And guess who ends up as president then. Seriously, guess.
Link to the poll?
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Old 9th October 2023, 10:49 PM   #253
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https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/trump-bi...too-close-call

Quote:
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Biden (35%) and Trump (35%) are essentially tied in a 2-way race. In a three-way race between Biden (31%), Trump (33%) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (14%), Biden and Trump remain too close to call.
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Old 9th October 2023, 11:01 PM   #254
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Why are there so many of these self-centered self-absorbed jerks who really think their running for POTUS meets some burning need they have to be in the spotlight? This idiot has been campaigning as an anti-vaxxer for more than a decade. No doubt he thinks he's saving lives, saving the world, whatever if people would just listen to him.

I wait to see how many states he ends up registering in, hopefully it won't include too many swing states. He needs a good smack down of his brain-devoid-of-science.

This is not the year you ******* jerk, open your eyes.

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Old 9th October 2023, 11:02 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post

Thanks. Fairly large error margins, and being an online-only poll I think skews it slightly towards CTists.
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Old 9th October 2023, 11:05 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Thanks. Fairly large error margins, and being an online-only poll I think skews it slightly towards CTists.
Plus it's much too early for meaningful polls except maybe on who is winning their primary nomination.

I do hope he pulls away some QAnon idiots who are disenfranchised with Trump but don't want to vote for a Democrat.
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Old 9th October 2023, 11:09 PM   #257
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Well that's kind of the thing about polling and capturing accurate data. Landlines? Hell no unless your 65+. Email/text/snailmail request? Immediate delete.

Door to door? Been tried, but pretty sure nobody's gonna come near a person on your ring camera with a clipboard in civilian clothes.

Accurate survey/polling is almost impossible with new technology, as has been seen for about the last 10 or so years.
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Old 10th October 2023, 12:15 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Well that's kind of the thing about polling and capturing accurate data. Landlines? Hell no unless your 65+. Email/text/snailmail request? Immediate delete.

Door to door? Been tried, but pretty sure nobody's gonna come near a person on your ring camera with a clipboard in civilian clothes.

Accurate survey/polling is almost impossible with new technology, as has been seen for about the last 10 or so years.
Well said. But thanks for the poll, they're always worth a look even if to test one's analytical skills.
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Old 10th October 2023, 12:26 AM   #259
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I do believe that RFk jr is draining more Dem support than Rep.
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Old 10th October 2023, 12:34 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I do believe that RFk jr is draining more Dem support than Rep.
I mean, in the end, he probably will.

If you are a supporter of Trump, you will vote Trump because he either made the vaccines himself or because he was against the Biden vaccines. Or both or neither. Nobody really has to be consistent when voting for Trump. Also, think of that time that Biden and his son Hunter Biden did some shady secret business. It was all on the laptop. Trump, on the other hand, would never do that. Unless he did, in which case it proves he's smart.

Dems on the other hand, might vote for RFK Jr because of his anti-corporate talk and his famous name. Or because those who vote for him may be old school hippy Democrat anti-vaxxers.
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Old 10th October 2023, 02:38 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Thanks. Fairly large error margins, and being an online-only poll I think skews it slightly towards CTists.
Actually over 900 respondents for a political poll is pretty huge. Don't want to get into the weeds, though I don't believe error margins are a part of this, statistically.
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Old 10th October 2023, 03:32 AM   #262
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Quote:
Over the course of the campaign season, Kennedy has mainly garnered attention in the news for promulgating outlandish and bigoted conspiracy theories. He’s said that Wi-Fi causes cancer and “leaky brain.” He described the Covid-19 vaccine as engineered to spare Jews and Chinese people. He has blamed antidepressants for school shootings.

This conspiracy-mongering is no surprise, given that his longtime anti-vaccine activism has evolved into a central pillar of his political identity. During the pandemic he grew in prominence — and won acclaim on the right — for his rabid criticism of the lockdowns and Covid vaccines. He accused the then-director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, of orchestrating “fascism” during the pandemic, and suggested that public health measures during the pandemic were equivalent to or worse than the Nazi Holocaust.
Nobody knows how RFK Jr.'s expected independent run could shake up 2024 (MSNBC, Oct 9, 2023)

I am not sure if it will be worse for Democrats or Republicans. At one point, Targeted Individuals had high hopes that RFK Jr. was their man:
Quote:
I’m going to @RobertKennedyJr’s upcoming Space. Will you join too?
Len Ber MD (Twitter/X, April 19, 2023)

But then they got disenchanted (if that's the right word in this context) when he wouldn't
"tell the truth about #TargetedIndividuals and stop this atrocious program".

In other words, he will probably lose many people who vote for him in polls when they find out how crazy he actually is, but many on the fringe won't vote for him because he isn't crazy enough.

I don't think he is as good as Trump at making people believe in the delusion that he is on their side.
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Old 11th October 2023, 02:08 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I mean, in the end, he probably will.

If you are a supporter of Trump, you will vote Trump because he either made the vaccines himself or because he was against the Biden vaccines. Or both or neither. Nobody really has to be consistent when voting for Trump. Also, think of that time that Biden and his son Hunter Biden did some shady secret business. It was all on the laptop. Trump, on the other hand, would never do that. Unless he did, in which case it proves he's smart.

Dems on the other hand, might vote for RFK Jr because of his anti-corporate talk and his famous name. Or because those who vote for him may be old school hippy Democrat anti-vaxxers.
rfk jr is trump without all his baggage out in the open, yet.

but i think rfk jr biggest problem is social media rounds don't carry the same weight they did when trump ran in 2016 and russia is too distracted to boost him.
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Old 11th October 2023, 05:42 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I do believe that RFk jr is draining more Dem support than Rep.
Why do you believe that?

RFK's high water mark was when he first announced, probably because of name recognition. The more the public has learned about him, the less liberals wanted anything to do with him.

His main policy positions puts him to the right of Trump on vaccines and abortion. His appeal is almost entirely from anti-vax hard liners who were displeased by Trump's waffling on the issue.

I'd say there's good chances he's trying to get on Trump's ticket as VP, and it would be a great way for Trump to shore up his right flank among the anti-vax nutters.
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Old 11th October 2023, 05:48 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost View Post
Why do you believe that?

RFK's high water mark was when he first announced, probably because of name recognition. The more the public has learned about him, the less liberals wanted anything to do with him.

His main policy positions puts him to the right of Trump on vaccines and abortion. His appeal is almost entirely from anti-vax hard liners who were displeased by Trump's waffling on the issue.

I'd say there's good chances he's trying to get on Trump's ticket as VP, and it would be a great way for Trump to shore up his right flank among the anti-vax nutters.
Jill Stein is objectively a fruit cake, and she managed to take the win from HRC and give it to Trump.
As has been noted, US voters often don't vote for a candidate, but against one. Having a 3rd candidate gives you the chance to vote against 2.
And, generally speaking, Dems are quicker to not vote D than Republicans are not to vote R.
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Old 11th October 2023, 05:52 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Jill Stein is objectively a fruit cake, and she managed to take the win from HRC and give it to Trump.
As has been noted, US voters often don't vote for a candidate, but against one. Having a 3rd candidate gives you the chance to vote against 2.
And, generally speaking, Dems are quicker to not vote D than Republicans are not to vote R.
This is objectively false.

Third party voting overwhelmingly helped Clinton. The amount of right wing "spoiler" votes for the Libertarian party totally dwarfs the combined impact of the Greens and other lefty third party groups.

ETA: Feel free to prove me wrong. Pick any swing state in the 2016 election and demonstrate that Greens siphoned more votes off HRC than Libertarians did off Trump.
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Old 11th October 2023, 05:57 AM   #267
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Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost View Post
This is objectively false.

Third party voting overwhelmingly helped Clinton. The amount of right wing "spoiler" votes for the Libertarian party totally dwarfs the combined impact of the Greens and other lefty third party groups.

Interesting.

This is in direct contradiction of the analyses I've seen.

Do you have a link I could read?
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Old 11th October 2023, 07:39 AM   #268
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Interesting.

This is in direct contradiction of the analyses I've seen.

Do you have a link I could read?
Originally Posted by Abstract
Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote for president in 2016, but lost to Donald Trump in the Electoral College. Trump’s margin of victory in several decisive battleground states was smaller than the combined vote for the two leading minor party candidates: Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party. The perception that Johnson and Stein “stole” the 2016 presidential election from Clinton is widespread, and potentially consequential for future minor party candidacies, but it has not yet been rigorously tested. In this article, we extend the analysis of minor party voting in the 1992 election from Lacy, D., and B. C. Burden. 1999. “The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Ross Perot in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 43 (1): 233–55, by using data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to estimate a multinomial probit model of voting behavior—including outcomes for vote choice and abstention—and calculate the predicted probabilities that Johnson and Stein voters would have voted for another candidate or abstained from voting, had one or both of these candidates been excluded from the ballot. We then reallocate Johnson’s and Stein’s votes accordingly, to estimate Clinton’s and Trump’s counterfactual vote shares nationally and within key battleground states. Our analysis indicates that Johnson and Stein did not deprive Clinton of an Electoral College majority, nor Trump the legitimacy of winning the national popular vote. We estimate that most Johnson and Stein voters would have abstained from voting if denied the choice to vote for their preferred candidate, and that most of Johnson’s remaining voters would have supported Trump.
https://www.degruyter.com/document/d...1/html?lang=en

The assumption is that Clinton would have disproportionately benefitted if these third party options were not available, which is totally unproven and seems dubious on its face. Libertarianism is a right wing movement. The Greens are... esoteric in their beliefs and aren't misguided Democrats who just don't know how the 2 party system works.

And, it seem important to point out, pretty much every third party voter knows they are pissing their vote away, doubly so for those in swing states. It's an act of protest, I would assume many would leave it blank rather than vote for any of the two contenders they obviously find unacceptable. Maybe they write in Mickey Mouse instead.

Quote:
The analysis, in which third-party votes were reassigned to both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton, finds that Mrs. Clinton would have needed to win 70% of the vote share that went to the Libertarian and Green parties across all eight states to claim victory. Capturing that percentage of the third-party vote would have put Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in her column — giving her enough electoral votes to narrowly win the election.

...

In another scenario, even if every one of Ms. Stein's left-leaning supporters is assigned to Mrs. Clinton in those same eight states, she still would have needed to win more than 50% of Mr. Johnson's supporters to flip enough states to win the election.
The idea that 50% or more of Libertarians and 100% of Greens would have put Clinton down as their second choice is laughable.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-66593
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Old 11th October 2023, 09:00 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Thanks. Fairly large error margins, and being an online-only poll I think skews it slightly towards CTists.
Polls of U.S. voters with a sample size around 1,000 will produce a 3% margin of error at p < 0.05. Kennedy at 14% does not have a credible chance against any candidate polling up in the 30s. And I agree that there are severe bias issues with online polling.
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Old 11th October 2023, 09:05 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by TurkeysGhost View Post
https://www.degruyter.com/document/d...1/html?lang=en

The assumption is that Clinton would have disproportionately benefitted if these third party options were not available, which is totally unproven and seems dubious on its face. Libertarianism is a right wing movement. The Greens are... esoteric in their beliefs and aren't misguided Democrats who just don't know how the 2 party system works.

And, it seem important to point out, pretty much every third party voter knows they are pissing their vote away, doubly so for those in swing states. It's an act of protest, I would assume many would leave it blank rather than vote for any of the two contenders they obviously find unacceptable. Maybe they write in Mickey Mouse instead.



The idea that 50% or more of Libertarians and 100% of Greens would have put Clinton down as their second choice is laughable.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-66593


Thanks for that.

I agree that the 3rd party candidates probably didn't cost Clinton the election
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Old 11th October 2023, 02:28 PM   #271
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Cartoonist can be so mean.
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Old 11th October 2023, 02:42 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Solitaire View Post
Sewer rat? Gutter-dweller?
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Old 12th October 2023, 05:51 AM   #273
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Pennywise from "It". Because anyone who fell for his nonsense is a naive child. Or pretending to be one
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Old 12th October 2023, 06:07 AM   #274
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Hannity poured on a Gish Gallop of RFK Jr's progressive stances on him as soon as he switched Independent


I have hope that RFK Jr will suck more R support than D, given 95 percent of his publicity has been on rightwing anti-vax platforms.
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Old 12th October 2023, 10:24 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Hannity poured on a Gish Gallop of RFK Jr's progressive stances on him as soon as he switched Independent


I have hope that RFK Jr will suck more R support than D, given 95 percent of his publicity has been on rightwing anti-vax platforms.
Good to hope for, but unlikely I think. The idiot will likely swing the general election to Trump, barring the unlikely case in which Trump doesn't get the R nomination. That would result in two loons running as independents.
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Old 12th October 2023, 10:26 AM   #276
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Good to hope for, but unlikely I think. The idiot will likely swing the general election to Trump, barring the unlikely case in which Trump doesn't get the R nomination. That would result in two loons running as independents.
I'm trying to figure out what would happen in a 4 way race between Trump, Biden, RFK, and Manchin. Cause I'm thinking thats what November will be. Likely no one gets a majority of electoral votes, and congress picks our president.

I actually think RFK Jr is worse for Trump than Biden. He will pick off the loons, but for the most part the loons on the left wont vote for Biden anyways.

Last edited by lobosrul5; 12th October 2023 at 10:28 AM.
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Old 12th October 2023, 11:11 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I'm trying to figure out what would happen in a 4 way race between Trump, Biden, RFK, and Manchin. Cause I'm thinking thats what November will be. Likely no one gets a majority of electoral votes, and congress picks our president.

I actually think RFK Jr is worse for Trump than Biden. He will pick off the loons, but for the most part the loons on the left wont vote for Biden anyways.
Not seeing Manchin throwing his hat into the ring at this stage. He knows he would stand no chance as does RFK. A disruptor yes, as has been shown legislatively.

It'll be another Trump/Biden showdown unless one of them get convicted for something, or dies from natural causes.

Civil War thread--->

Last edited by PitPat; 12th October 2023 at 11:12 AM.
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Old 12th October 2023, 11:49 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Not seeing Manchin throwing his hat into the ring at this stage. He knows he would stand no chance as does RFK. A disruptor yes, as has been shown legislatively.

It'll be another Trump/Biden showdown unless one of them get convicted for something, or dies from natural causes.

Civil War thread--->
Theres been quite a lot of talk of a "No Labels" party run and he's the most likely candidate. So far, its all just talk of course.
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Old 12th October 2023, 12:05 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I'm trying to figure out what would happen in a 4 way race between Trump, Biden, RFK, and Manchin. Cause I'm thinking thats what November will be. Likely no one gets a majority of electoral votes, and congress picks our president.

I actually think RFK Jr is worse for Trump than Biden. He will pick off the loons, but for the most part the loons on the left wont vote for Biden anyways.
I think the plan was for RFK Jr to cause just enough chaos to push more election conspiracies into the spotlight. He may not pick off a lot Biden voters, but he'd get enough people who don't normally vote to come out and screw up the math. Or at least, make it appear that way.
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Old 12th October 2023, 12:37 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Theres been quite a lot of talk of a "No Labels" party run and he's the most likely candidate. So far, its all just talk of course.
Isn't that one of those "centrist common sense" groups that is almost entirely Republicans except for like 1 or 2 token Democrats?
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