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Old 12th October 2023, 12:47 PM   #281
sinnikal
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Theres been quite a lot of talk of a "No Labels" party run and he's the most likely candidate. So far, its all just talk of course.
It's about time for the Know Nothing party to be resurrected.
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Old 12th October 2023, 01:04 PM   #282
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Pretty sure that's been the Republican party for a while now.
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Old 12th October 2023, 09:22 PM   #283
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My first vote will always go to the Standing at the Back Dressed Stupidly and Looking Stupid Party
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Old 13th October 2023, 12:26 AM   #284
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The Monster Raving Looney Party just got a new mascot.
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Old 13th October 2023, 04:34 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by sinnikal View Post
It's about time for the Know Nothing party to be resurrected.
Don't we already have quite a few of those now?
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Old 13th October 2023, 12:38 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by dirtywick View Post
rfk jr is trump without all his baggage out in the open, yet.

but i think rfk jr biggest problem is social media rounds don't carry the same weight they did when trump ran in 2016 and russia is too distracted to boost him.
I don't think that Russia would have the resources to back two anti-USA candidates.
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Old 13th October 2023, 12:52 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post
I don't think that Russia would have the resources to back two anti-USA candidates.
Bots are cheap. As is paying some 16 year old in his basement in Novosibirsk in Vodka to spend 12 hours a day posting.
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Old 13th October 2023, 01:00 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Bots are cheap. As is paying some 16 year old in his basement in Novosibirsk in Vodka to spend 12 hours a day posting.
Plus the bot farms are either still set up or the plans for them are already created and could be up and running in no time.
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Old 14th October 2023, 04:48 AM   #289
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The bots have been active in Reddit for RFKjr. They push the “he’s the only candidate who wants peace!!” I.e. cut off Ukraine for aid. It’s not going well for them from what I have seen.
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Old 18th October 2023, 06:13 AM   #290
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I'm trying to figure out what would happen in a 4 way race between Trump, Biden, RFK, and Manchin. Cause I'm thinking thats what November will be. Likely no one gets a majority of electoral votes, and congress picks our president.
Not sure if that would be a problem... technically it's possible (and might end up with a republican victory even if they are in second place), but to do that, Kennedy or Manchin would actually have to win at least one state, and I don't think they have enough support to do that. (Or that their supporters are concentrated in one area geographically.)

More likely is that they would siphon off votes from the front runners to affect individual states, but the electoral college votes would still all go to the Democrats or republicans
Quote:

I actually think RFK Jr is worse for Trump than Biden. He will pick off the loons, but for the most part the loons on the left wont vote for Biden anyways.
Well for what it's worth, early polling suggests that if Kennedy is in the race, Biden would beat Trump by 7%. So it appears that Kennedy appears to be hurting Trump's chances more than Biden's.

(With of course the various caveats... it's still early, it's just one poll so we don't know if it's a trend, etc )

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ro...121740419.html

It kind of makes sense... trump voters are typically low information voters (remember Trump's statement "I love the uneducated"), and would more likely be swayed by single issues.

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Old 18th October 2023, 05:15 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
I think the plan was for RFK Jr to cause just enough chaos to push more election conspiracies into the spotlight. He may not pick off a lot Biden voters, but he'd get enough people who don't normally vote to come out and screw up the math. Or at least, make it appear that way.
I'm kind of thinking that too. Make a big fuss for awhile and then he'll run out of funds, even though he's a Kennedy.

Drop out before November and that will be that. Hopefully. He can certainly siphon off the "dumb vote" which would only help Trump.
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Old 18th October 2023, 07:09 PM   #292
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
I'm kind of thinking that too. Make a big fuss for awhile and then he'll run out of funds, even though he's a Kennedy.

Drop out before November and that will be that. Hopefully. He can certainly siphon off the "dumb vote" which would only help Trump.
Um.....the dumb vote is anyone who would vote for Trump now.
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Old 19th October 2023, 04:57 AM   #293
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
I'm kind of thinking that too. Make a big fuss for awhile and then he'll run out of funds, even though he's a Kennedy.

Drop out before November and that will be that. Hopefully. He can certainly siphon off the "dumb vote" which would only help Trump.
How is picking off Trump voters helping Trump?
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Old 19th October 2023, 08:48 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
How is picking off Trump voters helping Trump?
All -- ok, most -- Trump voters are dumb, but not all dumbs are Trumpers or Republicans.
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Old 21st October 2023, 10:11 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
How is picking off Trump voters helping Trump?
Because it's fewer to Biden. Am I missing something here?
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Old 23rd October 2023, 11:12 PM   #296
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...st_polls/2024/

Dems need to take Kennedy seriously as a threat and opportunity. The polling data suggests that idiot boy bleeds votes from both Biden and Trump. A hard negative social media campaign (Kennedy's negatives are that he's stupid, a Russian whore and generally insane) will push him toward Trump's anti-American voters looking for an alternative. If you tie Trump to the vaccines you could bleed off enough of his crazies.
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Old 25th October 2023, 05:36 AM   #297
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His main demographic is white women. Most white women in general vote Republican.
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Old 25th October 2023, 11:35 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
His main demographic is white women. Most white women in general vote Republican.
I think all his opposition has to do then is publish a few current pics of him. He's not exactly as photogenic as the martyred president.
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Old 25th October 2023, 11:58 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by PitPat View Post
Because it's fewer to Biden. Am I missing something here?
Yes, you're missing math.

If Trump has 10 voters and Biden has 10 voters. RFK taking 2 of Trump's voters leaves Trump with 8 voters and Biden still has 10 voters.
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Old 25th October 2023, 04:13 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Yes, you're missing math.

If Trump has 10 voters and Biden has 10 voters. RFK taking 2 of Trump's voters leaves Trump with 8 voters and Biden still has 10 voters.
Yeah, so? Yeah, so?
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Old 25th October 2023, 04:23 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, so? Yeah, so?
Well, if correct it means Biden wins the election easily. It, unfortunately isn't. RFK is taking votes from both ends. And, since, again, unfortunately, we have this goofy electoral college thing, it doesn't matter how that plays out nationally. It matters how it plays out in swing states.
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Old 25th October 2023, 05:26 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
His main demographic is white women. Most white women in general vote Republican.
True...most non-college educated white women tend to vote Republican. But that is also true of non-college educated white men, too.

From USA Today:

Quote:
Virginia's 2021 gubernatorial election provides a good example. Republican Glenn Youngkin received 57% of all white women's votes, winning him the governor's mansion. But white women without a college degree supported Younkin at 74%, while white women with a college degree supported his opponent, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, at 61%.
Quote:
In recent years, Republicans' messaging on schools' purported teachings on "critical race theory" — the idea that racism is embedded in all American laws and institutions — has been particularly effective at pushing white women voters to the right, said Jatia Wrighten, an African American studies professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Critical race theory is an academic concept that is not taught in public schools.

Youngkin's win in Virginia was fueled in part by white, suburban moms upset about pandemic policies, which books children are required to read and what access LGBTQ youth had to bathrooms aligned with their gender.
Since 2020 election defeat, the GOP has targeted white women by playing on their maternal fears with fear mongering, which they are particularly good at.

Quote:
“There’s this fear of this replacing of whiteness by brown and Black people, and this has been a really effective messaging for the Republican Party,” Wrighten said. “You do see a lot of white women voting more conservative in the name of protecting (their) children from these feelings of guilt."
But the overturning of R v W and the draconian abortion laws being passed by GOP state legislatures is turning many women back to the Democrats.

Quote:
The 2022 overturning of Roe brought many white women back into the Democratic fold.

In the midterm elections, Democrats successfully defended every incumbent Senate seat and managed to minimize substantial losses in the House, largely due to women who were furious about the decision.

"Whether you're talking about suburban women or suburban white women, turns out we really did care about the overturn of Roe," said Katie Paris, the founder of Red Wine and Blue, a Democratic group that targets suburban women voters. "And that our memories last longer than they were thought to."
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Old 25th October 2023, 05:43 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
His main demographic is white women. Most white women in general vote Republican.
I don't think that true.

Maybe under-educated white housewives in little clusters of anti-vaxxers, but not the majority of white women..

Certain groups of white women might be GOPers. But look at how big the pro-choice voice is. And really the anti-vaxxer crowd is not that big. Look at school stats re unvaccinated vs vaccinated students.

See what Stacy said above, she said it better.

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Old 26th October 2023, 08:29 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Well, if correct it means Biden wins the election easily. It, unfortunately isn't. RFK is taking votes from both ends. And, since, again, unfortunately, we have this goofy electoral college thing, it doesn't matter how that plays out nationally. It matters how it plays out in swing states.
What evidence is there that RFK will take votes from Biden? His values do not align with Biden voters. He parrots right-wing conspiracies and talking points.
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Old 26th October 2023, 08:59 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
What evidence is there that RFK will take votes from Biden? His values do not align with Biden voters. He parrots right-wing conspiracies and talking points.
He doesn't align with Biden. He does align with some people on the far left. You really should spend a bit of time reading up on his political views... and to be honest I needed to as well. He "populism-left" rather than "populism-right" which is Trump.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.

See sections such as:

"International and indigenous rights", "Minority and poor communities", "Oil, gas, and pipelines".

HOWEVER, surprisingly to me, he is pro-Israeli support in Gaza. I did essentially assume he would not be, and thought he'd be taking votes away from Biden from the progressive wing of the Democrats largely due to that.

As far as evidence for votes:

https://themessenger.com/politics/po...iden-exclusive

The poll, conducted online October 16-23 among 3,029 registered voters, found Trump led Biden, 45%-41%. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

With Kennedy and West added to the ballot test, Trump earned 38% of the vote, followed by Biden at 35%, Kennedy at 13%, and West at 2%. Twelve percent said they were unsure.


So, same poll Biden goes from 41 to 35 once you add in Kennedy and West*, but Trump goes from 45 down to 38. So Kennedy is hurting Trump slightly more than Biden.

*With West @ 2% in their poll its impossible that he's responsible for all of the 6% dip.

I may have been dead wrong in a way. RFK Jr might spoil the election for Trump not Biden. But he is taking votes from both candidates.
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Old 26th October 2023, 08:59 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
What evidence is there that RFK will take votes from Biden? His values do not align with Biden voters. He parrots right-wing conspiracies and talking points.
"But he's a Kennedy!" but
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Old 26th October 2023, 09:32 AM   #307
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The more RFK campaigns, the less appealing he'll be to the left. He may have had more left leaning political views in the past, however he's lost sanity and sounds more MAGA than not.
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Old 26th October 2023, 10:06 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
He doesn't align with Biden. He does align with some people on the far left. You really should spend a bit of time reading up on his political views... and to be honest I needed to as well. He "populism-left" rather than "populism-right" which is Trump.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.

See sections such as:

"International and indigenous rights", "Minority and poor communities", "Oil, gas, and pipelines".

HOWEVER, surprisingly to me, he is pro-Israeli support in Gaza. I did essentially assume he would not be, and thought he'd be taking votes away from Biden from the progressive wing of the Democrats largely due to that.

As far as evidence for votes:

https://themessenger.com/politics/po...iden-exclusive

The poll, conducted online October 16-23 among 3,029 registered voters, found Trump led Biden, 45%-41%. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

With Kennedy and West added to the ballot test, Trump earned 38% of the vote, followed by Biden at 35%, Kennedy at 13%, and West at 2%. Twelve percent said they were unsure.


So, same poll Biden goes from 41 to 35 once you add in Kennedy and West*, but Trump goes from 45 down to 38. So Kennedy is hurting Trump slightly more than Biden.

*With West @ 2% in their poll its impossible that he's responsible for all of the 6% dip.

I may have been dead wrong in a way. RFK Jr might spoil the election for Trump not Biden. But he is taking votes from both candidates.
So what? He aligns with a portion of at most a few thousand voters, most of whom live in heavily blue states?

Oh noes, Biden's only going to win California on a 75.32% vote share rather than his expected 75.33%. We're doomed, I tell you! DOOMED!
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Old 26th October 2023, 10:07 AM   #309
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single-issue anti-vaxxers might very well vote for him, coming from the Left or the Right.
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Old 26th October 2023, 10:35 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
single-issue anti-vaxxers might very well vote for him, coming from the Left or the Right.
Based on the available polling and stats, it's actually a plus for the Left.

Unvaccinated Adults are Now More Than Three Times as Likely to Lean Republican than Democratic

So he would steal more Republican votes than Democrat.
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Old 26th October 2023, 10:37 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post
So what? He aligns with a portion of at most a few thousand voters, most of whom live in heavily blue states?

Oh noes, Biden's only going to win California on a 75.32% vote share rather than his expected 75.33%. We're doomed, I tell you! DOOMED!
Did you like stop reading my post after the highlighted?
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Old 26th October 2023, 10:38 AM   #312
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
single-issue anti-vaxxers might very well vote for him, coming from the Left or the Right.
True - but most of them had already drifted away from the Dems, mostly to the Trumpist wing of the Republicans. Some also to the Libertarians, or fringe parties. The anti-vax movement no longer has any real presence in the Democratic party.

So long as Trump in the running, very very few antivaxxers would have been voting Democratic anyway.
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Old 26th October 2023, 04:05 PM   #313
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republicans have diluted the leftists in the anti-vax pool pretty thoroughly. and if there was such a thing as a single issue anti-vax voter, there's no way they'd be voting biden and didn't in 2020

regardless, still not sure why anyone at any point thought he'd be a threat to biden voters. when they brought him out as biden's spoiler and put him on the alt-lite podcast tour they found out rfk basically just sounds like a generic republican on almost everything. and the audience, theirs, fell in love with the guy.

so, all of it is pretty ******* stupid.
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Old 26th October 2023, 09:05 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
True - but most of them had already drifted away from the Dems, mostly to the Trumpist wing of the Republicans. Some also to the Libertarians, or fringe parties. The anti-vax movement no longer has any real presence in the Democratic party.

So long as Trump in the running, very very few antivaxxers would have been voting Democratic anyway.
Trump's going to find it hard to square the circle.

He wants to take credit for the vaccines, but wants to win over the anti-vaxxers...?

I mean, I get it, with Trump he can literally say he made the vaccines personally so vote for me, and they are evil and should never have been made, vote for me!

I mean this is exactly what idiot Robert Malone has been claiming about the Nobel prize....
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Old 2nd November 2023, 10:11 AM   #315
lobosrul5
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...way-race-poll/

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point — 47 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error — in a head-to-head matchup. But with Kennedy in a three-way race, Biden is ahead with 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent and Kennedy’s 22 percent.

Good news poll. RFKjr is pulling 8% from Biden, but 10% from Trump.
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Old 2nd November 2023, 10:50 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...way-race-poll/

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point — 47 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error — in a head-to-head matchup. But with Kennedy in a three-way race, Biden is ahead with 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent and Kennedy’s 22 percent.

Good news poll. RFKjr is pulling 8% from Biden, but 10% from Trump.
*sigh* again with the polling. I still think RFK Jr's candidacy is a joke and he'll have no discernable effect this time next year and its way too early for polling but...

We have an electoral College and winner-take-all system in each state. Meaning, as long as a candidate gets 50%+1 vote, they win that state's entire delegation.

This is where the polling data fails. If RFK Jr taking votes in deep blue or red states? Who cares? Is he taking votes in Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin? That is a big deal.
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Old 2nd November 2023, 10:51 AM   #317
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Polls at this stage are meaningless.
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Old 2nd November 2023, 10:54 AM   #318
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Especially the ones that don't seem to account for the way our presidential elections actually work.
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Old 3rd November 2023, 12:09 PM   #319
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I suspect Kennedy would pull even more from Trump if the former stupid **** in chief went to jail.
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Old 8th November 2023, 11:09 AM   #320
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Scary News

In his run for president, RFK Jr. appears to be playing down his anti-vaxxer stance, but ...
Quote:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gave the keynote speech at the second annual meeting of his antivax organization, Children’s Health Defense. Once again, he demonstrated that not only is he still antivax as hell, but that his proposals are even more bizarre than before. Truly, it was a homecoming for him.
(...)
In addition to his proposed moves at NIH, Kennedy said that as president, he’d appoint a like-minded attorney general, “maybe Aaron Siri,” he said. Siri is a lawyer who has done millions of dollars of work for leading anti-vaccination groups, including a recent case that opened up religious exemptions for childhood vaccines in Mississippi. The crowd erupted in applause.

He said he would use the power of that attorney general to threaten editors of medical journals and force them to publish studies that had been retracted (he often cites the retracted studies saying ivermectin, a parasite drug, is an effective treatment for Covid). “We’re gonna say we’re fixing to file some racketeering lawsuits if you don’t start telling the truth in your journals.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. comes home to his antivax roots…again (Science-Based Medicine, Nov 6, 2023)

And the really scary news:
In 3-Way Race, Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. Garners 24% Across 6 Battleground States; Trump 35%, Biden 33%, Kennedy 24%; RFK Noses Ahead Among Voters Under 45 (Siena College Research Institute, Nov 7, 2023)
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