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Old 5th January 2024, 11:00 AM   #1
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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

Mod Info Continued from here.
Posted By:Agatha




Originally Posted by 8enotto View Post
Appearances of winners or losers is going to ebb and flow a while longer. Let's just hope nato is committed to seeing Ukraine through this.
This.

But some here have objected to this as being too pessimistic. It's not pessimism, it's a call to action. At the very least, if you do nothing else, vote for politicians in your country who support NATO, arming Ukraine, etc.
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Old 9th January 2024, 12:07 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I agree that they are effective regardless of whether or not they are tracers.

But looking at the videos, every streak has an impact and there are no impacts without streaks. So every round fired by the Bradleys in Ukraine is a tracer. Maybe the U.S. Army didn't do it that way, but Ukraine does.
The simple answer is that there is no such thing as as a non-tracer Bushmaster round. Even the APDS and training ammo are tracer rounds.

Source: https://www.gd-ots.com/munitions/med...mm-bushmaster/
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Old 9th January 2024, 04:15 AM   #3
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Moscow Deploys 35,000 National Guards to Counter
Partisans in Occupied Ukraine

Russia has become concerned about partisan activity and anti-Kremlin attitudes among the local population in the occupied territories of Ukraine as its presidential elections approach.
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Old 9th January 2024, 05:02 AM   #4
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that was in the Kyiv Post

for some reason I can't scroll up and down in new post or edit windows any more so I can't add anything to the original
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Old 9th January 2024, 08:15 AM   #5
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Silly but I hadn't thought of it until now: all these new oblasts welcomed into mother Russia get a chance to vote for Putin now. I'm sure they can't wait.
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Old 15th January 2024, 11:16 PM   #6
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I don't know much about military aircraft, but this sounds interesting Ukraine says it shot down 2 Russian command and control aircraft in a significant blow to Moscow
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Old 16th January 2024, 10:28 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Andy_Ross View Post
Moscow Deploys 35,000 National Guards to Counter
Partisans in Occupied Ukraine

Russia has become concerned about partisan activity and anti-Kremlin attitudes among the local population in the occupied territories of Ukraine as its presidential elections approach.
The ISW map shows where they think partisan activity is happening. Over the last few months, More areas of resistance have shown up on the map.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...de641cf64bd375
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Old 16th January 2024, 10:40 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by gabeygoat View Post
I don't know much about military aircraft, but this sounds interesting Ukraine says it shot down 2 Russian command and control aircraft in a significant blow to Moscow
One was a sophisticated AWACS plane. With costs of maybe as much as 500 million. Russia only has 6 of them now I believe. Thats the one that was totally destroyed.

The other is a much cheaper turboprop plane designed for Army C&C from the air, that one managed to land. Pictures show significant damage to control structures. Its likely a write off.

Speculation is Ukraine brought a Patriot missile battery within just a few km of the southern front to get the range. A Russian fighter jet was also targeted but managed to evade the missile.

Meanwhile in Russia, they can't even get heating to their people.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...ll_freeze_and/

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Old 16th January 2024, 11:02 AM   #9
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Meanwhile, in the latest news from America's 3-day special military operation to annex Mexico, an E-3 Sentry and an E-8 JSTARS were shot down by Mexican forces in US airspace off the coast of Texas.

American ground forces fighting their way towards Tijuana were heard to inquire, "what AWACS doing?"

European observers remain confident that at this rate, US forces will get to Mexico City sooner or later, but probably later.
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Old 17th January 2024, 10:17 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
One was a sophisticated AWACS plane. With costs of maybe as much as 500 million. Russia only has 6 of them now I believe. Thats the one that was totally destroyed.

The other is a much cheaper turboprop plane designed for Army C&C from the air, that one managed to land. Pictures show significant damage to control structures. Its likely a write off.

Speculation is Ukraine brought a Patriot missile battery within just a few km of the southern front to get the range. A Russian fighter jet was also targeted but managed to evade the missile.
Here's some speculation of how that might have happened. Basically, Ukraine may have set a trap for the plane.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p...y-2024-scratch
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Old 17th January 2024, 10:29 AM   #11
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In a nutshell:

The A-50 exists in very limited numbers, and has very limited performance as a radar warning system, compared to similar western planes. The Ukrainians launched an aggressive operation against Russian ground-based radars in the south. This then forced the Russians to send up one of their few A-50s to make up the radar shortfall in that region.

Because the A-50's performance is lacking, the Russians were further forced to operate it dangerously close to the front lines. The Ukrainians had previously an S-300 surface-to-air missile system close to the front line, to lie in wait for the A-50. Once the Ukrainians knew the plane was in range, they shot it down.

That's the hypothesis, anyway. Sounds reasonable to me.

---

Another reasonable-sounding hypothesis is that the Patriot system can fire missiles that home in on enemy radar signals. They fire the missile in the direction where they expect the plane to be, and the missile itself finds the plane and targets it, rather than relying on the Patriot's ground-based radar. This supposedly increases the Patriot's range five-fold, but with a much lower hit probability. The lower hit probability can be offset by really good reconnaissance that tells you pretty accurately where to send the missile, so that it finds the plane. If the Ukrainians are getting really good recon data from NATO, well.
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Old 18th January 2024, 02:20 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
The simple answer is that there is no such thing as as a non-tracer Bushmaster round. Even the APDS and training ammo are tracer rounds.

Source: https://www.gd-ots.com/munitions/med...mm-bushmaster/
crescent, this clip of a Russian T-90 tank getting worked over by tracer rounds from a Bradley in Ukrainian service might be more to your liking:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredible...nutes_on_this/
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Old 18th January 2024, 02:24 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
crescent, this clip of a Russian T-90 tank getting worked over by tracer rounds from a Bradley in Ukrainian service might be more to your liking:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredible...nutes_on_this/
It should be noted, that is a T-90M. It is Russia's very best actual* tank. And it was destroyed by a 40+ year old US IFV that should by all measures, get wrecked by a modern MBT.

*The Armata is not real.
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Old 18th January 2024, 03:15 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
It should be noted, that is a T-90M. It is Russia's very best actual* tank. And it was destroyed by a 40+ year old US IFV that should by all measures, get wrecked by a modern MBT.

*The Armata is not real.
It should be noted, there were actually two Bradleys in that firefight.

In the full video, one Bradley stumbles across a T-90 in a demolished village. Both vehicles seem surprised at the close-range encounter, and open fire on each other. Shortly thereafter, that Bradley disengages and drives off. At that point, a second Bradley moves in and engages the tank from slightly farther away. More fire is exchanged, and ultimately the T-90 drives off, on fire and with its turret spinning uncontrollably. The tank crashes into a tree, its crew dismount and run away, and a Ukrainian suicide drone finishes it off.

But the T-90 was thoroughly mission killed by the Bradleys, before the drone got there.
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Old 18th January 2024, 03:17 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It should be noted, there were actually two Bradleys in that firefight.

In the full video, one Bradley stumbles across a T-90 in a demolished village. Both vehicles seem surprised at the close-range encounter, and open fire on each other. Shortly thereafter, that Bradley disengages and drives off. At that point, a second Bradley moves in and engages the tank from slightly farther away. More fire is exchanged, and ultimately the T-90 drives off, on fire and with its turret spinning uncontrollably. The tank crashes into a tree, its crew dismount and run away, and a Ukrainian suicide drone finishes it off.

But the T-90 was thoroughly mission killed by the Bradleys, before the drone got there.
Link, man, where's the link? It sounds cool as heck!
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Old 18th January 2024, 03:28 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Link, man, where's the link? It sounds cool as heck!
Here you go!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...Bf3g0bUJHatCh0

Bradley 1 drives across the foreground, from left to right, stopping at the intersection of foreground street and "main street" to engage the tank.

T-90 maneuvers along that "main street" stretching from foreground to background.

Bradley 2 drives down the right hand side on a parallel road, then drives over to "main street" to finish the tank.
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Old 18th January 2024, 03:35 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
In a nutshell:

The A-50 exists in very limited numbers, and has very limited performance as a radar warning system, compared to similar western planes. The Ukrainians launched an aggressive operation against Russian ground-based radars in the south. This then forced the Russians to send up one of their few A-50s to make up the radar shortfall in that region.

Because the A-50's performance is lacking, the Russians were further forced to operate it dangerously close to the front lines. The Ukrainians had previously an S-300 surface-to-air missile system close to the front line, to lie in wait for the A-50. Once the Ukrainians knew the plane was in range, they shot it down.

That's the hypothesis, anyway. Sounds reasonable to me.

---

Another reasonable-sounding hypothesis is that the Patriot system can fire missiles that home in on enemy radar signals. They fire the missile in the direction where they expect the plane to be, and the missile itself finds the plane and targets it, rather than relying on the Patriot's ground-based radar. This supposedly increases the Patriot's range five-fold, but with a much lower hit probability. The lower hit probability can be offset by really good reconnaissance that tells you pretty accurately where to send the missile, so that it finds the plane. If the Ukrainians are getting really good recon data from NATO, well.
It would seem those planes were hit with Patriots...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...htmode%3Dfalse

I'm assuming this was translated correctly of course.... or Zelensky could be playing games.

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Old 18th January 2024, 08:20 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Here you go!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...Bf3g0bUJHatCh0

Bradley 1 drives across the foreground, from left to right, stopping at the intersection of foreground street and "main street" to engage the tank.

T-90 maneuvers along that "main street" stretching from foreground to background.

Bradley 2 drives down the right hand side on a parallel road, then drives over to "main street" to finish the tank.

The Ryan McBeth take on it. McBeth was an anti-armor platoon sergeant.

The T-90 might be salvageable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-_LuEbHHyo
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Old 18th January 2024, 09:06 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
The Ryan McBeth take on it. McBeth was an anti-armor platoon sergeant.
So totally current with the latest techniques for salvaging upgraded T-72s.

Quote:
The T-90 might be salvageable.
There you go.

Quote:
I feel like I don't even need to watch the video.

More seriously: The Bradley's autocannon was never meant to penetrate the armor of Soviet main battle tanks. This was more a matter of busting up some of its external sensors, damaging the turret rotation system, totally discombobulating the tank crew... and then hitting its top armor with an anti-tank drone.

And the turret is still on the tank! So I wouldn't be surprised if this particular tank does end up back on the battlefield. Hopefully in Ukrainian hands.
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Old 19th January 2024, 11:27 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
And the turret is still on the tank! So I wouldn't be surprised if this particular tank does end up back on the battlefield. Hopefully in Ukrainian hands.
My recollection is that the T-90 doesn't have the turret-toss problem of the earlier models. Safer ammo storage or something.

Meanwhile, Russia has added another submarine to its Black Sea fleet.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 04:46 AM   #21
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The elusive collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine seems no closer.

Meanwhile according to the map labels on the latest ISW update:

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-21-2024
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces captured Krokhmalne
  • A Russian source claimed on January 21 that Russian forces advanced to the outskirts of Berestove
  • Russian sources claimed on January 18 that Russian forces captured Vesele
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced into Northern Bohdanivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut
  • Russian sources claimed on January 20 that Russian forces advanced south of Avdiivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced into southwestern Avdiivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 17 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Nevelske
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Urozhaine
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Rivnopil

Even discounting Russian claims and relying solely on geolocated information, Russian advances seem to be continuing on a number of fronts with no corresponding Ukrainian advances.

Yes, Russian advances are made at considerable cost in men and materiel, but there's no prospect of them stopping any time soon.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 04:49 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The elusive collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine seems no closer.

Meanwhile according to the map labels on the latest ISW update:

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-21-2024
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces captured Krokhmalne
  • A Russian source claimed on January 21 that Russian forces advanced to the outskirts of Berestove
  • Russian sources claimed on January 18 that Russian forces captured Vesele
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced into Northern Bohdanivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut
  • Russian sources claimed on January 20 that Russian forces advanced south of Avdiivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced into southwestern Avdiivka
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 17 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Nevelske
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Urozhaine
  • Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Rivnopil

Even discounting Russian claims and relying solely on geolocated information, Russian advances seem to be continuing on a number of fronts with no corresponding Ukrainian advances.

Yes, Russian advances are made at considerable cost in men and materiel, but there's no prospect of them stopping any time soon.
So when do you think they'll reach the Polish border?
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Old 22nd January 2024, 05:02 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Even discounting Russian claims and relying solely on geolocated information, Russian advances seem to be continuing on a number of fronts with no corresponding Ukrainian advances
Ukraine announced some time ago they were primarily maintaining a defensive posture for winter and focused on degrading Russian capabilities - so don't expect much in the way of Ukrainian advances.

Pretty much nothing on that list of "advances" has any real strategic importance, and the costs for Russia are enormous.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 05:50 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
Ukraine announced some time ago they were primarily maintaining a defensive posture for winter and focused on degrading Russian capabilities - so don't expect much in the way of Ukrainian advances.

Pretty much nothing on that list of "advances" has any real strategic importance, and the costs for Russia are enormous.
It's all ground that will have to be retaken to get the Russians out of Ukraine, probably also at high cost.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 06:06 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
It's all ground that will have to be retaken to get the Russians out of Ukraine, probably also at high cost.
Not necessarily. Russia is grinding. Ukraine is exchanging literally a few km2 of land for thousands of dead Russian soldiers and hundreds of destroyed vehicles and is now significantly expanding attacks on support infrastructure in Russia itself.

Ukraine is suffering too of course, but nothing like Russia is. This will eventually have an effect - indeed probably already is, based on the winter collapse of a lot of Russian infrastructure - too many plumbers and electricians sent to the front instead of doing their jobs.

I believe Ukraine is gearing up to try a proper counter-offensive in the future. The so-called summer counter-offensive wasn't much of one. I've seen reports no more than about 10% of the western equipment was committed to it. Lets not forget much of the promised gear, even from a year ago, still hadn't even arrived in Ukraine.

My guess is that they are at a minimum waiting to have themselves a decent air force again. When that is, is anybody's guess. In the meantime the problem is they have to manage perceptions as well as reality. Any Russian success is "Ukraine is losing" and any Ukrainian success is "Ukraine failed to achieve a breakthrough". That leads to declining western support.

But the goal I assume is a significant breakthrough somewhere, ala the Kharkiv/Kherson offensives of 2022, leading to a collapse of Russian defences. That leads to large amounts of territory being retaken without the high cost.

We also need to remember that Ukraine took back control of a significant amount of the black sea in 2023. That's never shown in the control of terrain maps and they should get a lot more credit for it.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 06:23 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
Not necessarily. Russia is grinding. Ukraine is exchanging literally a few km2 of land for thousands of dead Russian soldiers and hundreds of destroyed vehicles and is now significantly expanding attacks on support infrastructure in Russia itself.

Ukraine is suffering too of course, but nothing like Russia is. This will eventually have an effect - indeed probably already is, based on the winter collapse of a lot of Russian infrastructure - too many plumbers and electricians sent to the front instead of doing their jobs.

I believe Ukraine is gearing up to try a proper counter-offensive in the future. The so-called summer counter-offensive wasn't much of one. I've seen reports no more than about 10% of the western equipment was committed to it. Lets not forget much of the promised gear, even from a year ago, still hadn't even arrived in Ukraine.

My guess is that they are at a minimum waiting to have themselves a decent air force again. When that is, is anybody's guess. In the meantime the problem is they have to manage perceptions as well as reality. Any Russian success is "Ukraine is losing" and any Ukrainian success is "Ukraine failed to achieve a breakthrough". That leads to declining western support.

But the goal I assume is a significant breakthrough somewhere, ala the Kharkiv/Kherson offensives of 2022, leading to a collapse of Russian defences. That leads to large amounts of territory being retaken without the high cost.

We also need to remember that Ukraine took back control of a significant amount of the black sea in 2023. That's never shown in the control of terrain maps and they should get a lot more credit for it.
This is all the more impressive when you take into account, Ukraine doesn't have a Navy.
This is also important on a larger perspective. Ukraine makes plans and strikes that result in the significant loss of Russian men and material, with little to no cost in Ukrainian manpower, whenever possible.
Meanwhile Russia throws thousands of men and material to claw back some insignificant clump of dirt.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 08:19 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
So when do you think they'll reach the Polish border?
Never, but they may end up hanging onto much of what they currently occupy.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 12:09 PM   #28
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A couple of videos of Ukrainian attacks inside Russia proper yesterday, including a Baltic oil terminal near St Petersburg burning. 900km from Ukraine!
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And a tank factory:
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Old 22nd January 2024, 01:47 PM   #29
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My recent favorite is two partisans in Crimea poisoning a number of Russian soldiers, getting into a shootout with security forces, killing some of them, and evading capture thereafter.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 03:35 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Never, but they may end up hanging onto much of what they currently occupy.
You might want to take a closer look at how the first world war ended. That is the most relevant to the current situation unless the a more mobile battlefield situation develops.

Warfare for the last 100+ years has been less a matter of who controls territory and more a matter of if an army can sustain combat. The Russians capabilities have been gradually degraded. They started off trying to fight like a modern army and are slowly seeing their ability degraded to the point where the ground forces are fighting like it is the late 19th century.

Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 06:09 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
My recent favorite is two partisans in Crimea poisoning a number of Russian soldiers, getting into a shootout with security forces, killing some of them, and evading capture thereafter.
Woah! sounds like a movie in the making.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 06:50 PM   #32
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Ukraine has limited artillery shells and other supplies. Without them they cannot do the impossible and stop the Russians.

Meanwhile in Russia the poorer people are freezing to death as the infrastructure crumbles due to the focus on the invasion.

Putin is weakened even if he wins. Small consolation for the Ukrainians.
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Old 22nd January 2024, 07:08 PM   #33
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Russian oil and gas terminals are under fire. Hitting Putin in the already thin wallet.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 02:53 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
You might want to take a closer look at how the first world war ended. That is the most relevant to the current situation unless the a more mobile battlefield situation develops.

Warfare for the last 100+ years has been less a matter of who controls territory and more a matter of if an army can sustain combat. The Russians capabilities have been gradually degraded. They started off trying to fight like a modern army and are slowly seeing their ability degraded to the point where the ground forces are fighting like it is the late 19th century.

Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.
A major factor in the ending of the first world war was the late introduction of a superpower, the US, providing hundreds of thousands of men and enormous industrial muscle.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 03:27 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.
They're not so much trying to "win" though as simply try to wear out the "enemy" and their supporters to the point where they simply don't think it's worth the cost any more, negotiations occur, they get to keep much of what they've taken.

Rinse and repeat.

It's why, if Ukraine had fallen, there is no doubt in my mind a war with the Baltic states was inevitable - the risk assessment in Moscow will be that the west isn't willing to fight as hard and as long as Russia, and will eventually negotiate something, even in an attack on NATO.

That risk remains unless Russia is thoroughly defeated.

The Kremlin simply doesn't care about the cost, human or otherwise.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 03:30 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A major factor in the ending of the first world war was the late introduction of a superpower, the US, providing hundreds of thousands of men and enormous industrial muscle.
It's that industrial muscle that's missing now. Europe at least should have gone on arms manufacturing war footing immediately in 2022. It's only now - barely - starting to understand this. And mostly not to help Ukraine but because we've realised that the same problem Ukraine has would befall Europe if Russia attacked - we'd run out of ammo.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 08:05 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.
I wouldn't say that. The Soviets used human wave attacks against the Germans, and they won. Human wave tactics are what you use when your troops are of low quality and you're short on material, which isn't a good position to be in, but that doesn't guarantee failure.

Note, I'm not saying that Russia will win. Only that their willingness to sacrifice their soldiers doesn't demonstrate they will lose either.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 08:05 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
So when do you think they'll reach the Polish border?
That's not what The Don is saying. Cut it out.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 08:13 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
It's why, if Ukraine had fallen, there is no doubt in my mind a war with the Baltic states was inevitable - the risk assessment in Moscow will be that the west isn't willing to fight as hard and as long as Russia, and will eventually negotiate something, even in an attack on NATO.
I think it is even more likely that Putin will continue restoring Zarist Russia by attacking Moldova. He already has Trans-Dniester in his hand, and this would connect that enclave directly to Russia. Besides, Moldova is not part of NATO.

Quote:
The Kremlin simply doesn't care about the cost, human or otherwise.
Exactly. What is important for Putin is to be known as the man who restored Russia to its historical borders.
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Old 23rd January 2024, 08:32 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I wouldn't say that. The Soviets used human wave attacks against the Germans, and they won. Human wave tactics are what you use when your troops are of low quality and you're short on material, which isn't a good position to be in, but that doesn't guarantee failure.

Note, I'm not saying that Russia will win. Only that their willingness to sacrifice their soldiers doesn't demonstrate they will lose either.
Those are not tactics that the Red Army made much use of later in the war. Ie the Battle of Kursk, or Operation Bagration. They would've been bled out had they relied on human wave tactics to retake all of their lost land, plus The Third Reich.
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