IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 23rd January 2024, 09:11 AM   #41
steenkh
Philosopher
 
steenkh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Denmark
Posts: 7,220
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Those are not tactics that the Red Army made much use of later in the war. Ie the Battle of Kursk, or Operation Bagration. They would've been bled out had they relied on human wave tactics to retake all of their lost land, plus The Third Reich.

I believe I have read about human wave tactics used in the campaign to take Budapest in 1945. Masses of punitive battalions were sent forward to clear mines by stepping on them, and to expose enemy positions. Commanders were sentenced to join the punitive battalions if they had too few casualties in their units (This happened at Berlin too).
__________________
Steen

--
Jack of all trades - master of none!
steenkh is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 02:43 PM   #42
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA
Posts: 6,104
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Ukraine has limited artillery shells and other supplies. Without them they cannot do the impossible and stop the Russians.

Meanwhile in Russia the poorer people are freezing to death as the infrastructure crumbles due to the focus on the invasion.

Putin is weakened even if he wins. Small consolation for the Ukrainians.

Both sides have already lost. The question is how badly.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz
SpitfireIX is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 02:53 PM   #43
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 69,333
Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Both sides have already lost. The question is how badly.
That's like saying Russia lost because Napoleon got all the way to Moscow. Or the US lost because Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.

I think it's fair to say that whether Ukraine wins or loses, Russia has already failed in its strategic objectives, without hope of recovery. And that therefore it makes sense to say that Russia has lost in a very real way, that Ukraine has not (yet).
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 03:03 PM   #44
Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
 
Andy_Ross's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 46,853
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I wouldn't say that. The Soviets used human wave attacks against the Germans, and they won. Human wave tactics are what you use when your troops are of low quality and you're short on material, which isn't a good position to be in, but that doesn't guarantee failure.

Note, I'm not saying that Russia will win. Only that their willingness to sacrifice their soldiers doesn't demonstrate they will lose either.
One of the great fallacies and part of the mythology of WW2.

It wasn't the 'human wave' tactics that beat the Germans, the Soviets didn't start to have any real success until they started using proper combined arms and planned attacks and equipped their forces with better quality equipment than the Germans were fielding.
__________________
Formerly known as Captain Swoop
Andy_Ross is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 03:13 PM   #45
Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
 
Andy_Ross's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 46,853
Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
I believe I have read about human wave tactics used in the campaign to take Budapest in 1945. Masses of punitive battalions were sent forward to clear mines by stepping on them, and to expose enemy positions. Commanders were sentenced to join the punitive battalions if they had too few casualties in their units (This happened at Berlin too).
More mythology
__________________
Formerly known as Captain Swoop
Andy_Ross is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 03:37 PM   #46
sackett
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Detroit
Posts: 8,812
A genuine human wave attack sounds like nothing more than a target-rich environment. Perhaps "human wave" is one of those hyperbolic phrases that people use too much.
__________________
When I spoke out against the bullies, they called me woke.

When I lashed them with a length of chain, they called me sir.
sackett is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 04:08 PM   #47
Jimbo07
Illuminator
 
Jimbo07's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,498
So... Sweden's a step closer to getting into NATO.
__________________
This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group.

Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key
Jimbo07 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 05:19 PM   #48
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 56,168
Originally Posted by Andy_Ross View Post
It wasn't the 'human wave' tactics that beat the Germans
I didn’t say it was. All I said is they used it, and they won. Which disproves the assertion that using it indicates you will lose. Using it against Ukraine probably isn’t a good idea either, but they could still win (meaning holding onto significant Ukrainian territory when the conflict ends).
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2024, 10:15 PM   #49
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
 
a_unique_person's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open.
Posts: 46,262
Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
So... Sweden's a step closer to getting into NATO.
First they have to eject Hungary from the EU and NATO. Orban is a fascist and has to go.
__________________
We do these things not because they are easy, but because we thought they were going to be easy.
Everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
“Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos
a_unique_person is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 06:16 AM   #50
Steve
Penultimate Amazing
 
Steve's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 13,725
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
First they have to eject Hungary from the EU and NATO. Orban is a fascist and has to go.
No, not first. But they should do this.
__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"
Steve is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 06:37 AM   #51
Mike!
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
 
Mike!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 52,864
A Russian transport plane has crashed near the Ukraine border, no survivors. What is in question presently is, what was on board, men or missiles, and what brought it down?
Originally Posted by CNN
But, there are conflicting reports about who or what was on board. Russian state media reported that 65 Ukrainian servicemen were on the plane, being flown to Belgorod ahead of a prisoner swap.

Ukraine says the IL-76 that crashed in Belgorod was carrying missiles for the S-300 air defense system, according to the official Ukrainian information service, quoting a source in the Ukrainian armed forces.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...ntl/index.html
__________________
"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes...
Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes."
Mike! is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 06:46 AM   #52
icerat
Philosopher
 
icerat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,752
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
First they have to eject Hungary from the EU and NATO. Orban is a fascist and has to go.
The slimy weasel just announced on Xitter he's asked Parliament to ratify Sweden's application.
__________________
Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available
icerat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 07:34 AM   #53
SpitfireIX
Philosopher
 
SpitfireIX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA
Posts: 6,104
Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
First they have to eject Hungary from the EU and NATO. Orban is a fascist and has to go.

As I mentioned in the NATO thread, the fact that Hungary is in the EU is a benefit in this case, as the EU has many potential carrots and sticks available to persuade Orbán to approve Sweden's NATO membership.

Further, Orbán has little to gain by continuing to hold up Sweden's accession. Any potential goodwill from Putin went out the window (so to speak) when Hungary approved Finland's membership.

ETA: Also, sadly, there's no provision in either the EU or NATO for expelling a member.
__________________
"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
--Carl Schurz

Last edited by SpitfireIX; 24th January 2024 at 07:35 AM.
SpitfireIX is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 07:58 AM   #54
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 69,333
Hungary outside the EU and NATO would be even more of a burden on those institutions. The last thing Europe needs is another Belarus on its border. I'm sure they wish they could have brought Lukashenko on-side, too.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 08:18 AM   #55
Wildy
Adelaidean
 
Wildy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 11,851
Belarus is too intertwined with Russia for that to have happened.
__________________
Wildy is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 08:19 AM   #56
Steve
Penultimate Amazing
 
Steve's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 13,725
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Hungary outside the EU and NATO would be even more of a burden on those institutions. The last thing Europe needs is another Belarus on its border. I'm sure they wish they could have brought Lukashenko on-side, too.
Yeah, good point. The devil you know......
__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!"
Steve is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 08:39 AM   #57
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,698
Ukraine shot down an IL-76 (big four engine airplane) near Belgorod. Il-76s are general purpose transports, used for both cargo and military passengers.

The shoot-down of the plane is not denied but the contents of the plane are in dispute.

Ukraine claims that the plane was transporting weapons, possibly from Iran. Russia claims it was transporting Ukrainian POWs for a prisoner exchange, as many as 80 of them.

Russia has published a list of the names of the POWs killed in the crash. A basic name check shows that a bunch of the names are of former POWs who were exchanged a few weeks ago.

Ukrainians are doubtful, pointing out that in previous exchanges all soldiers were transported by train, and when they have transported POW by air the guard/POW ratio was much higher than what the Russians are claiming.

The Russians are going for a full court press with the killed POW thing, claiming that Ukraine knew full well that the plane was full of POWs because Russia had informed them of it as part of the planning for the exchange. The pro-Russian social media world is pushing really hard on this, frothing at the mouth and eye-rolling and loud loud LOUD.

So I think this will dominate the news from Ukraine for at least a week or two. They are equating it to the downing of the Dutch airline (MH-17) in 2014.

(The odd part is that the plane was heading north away from Belogorad and Ukraine, deeper into Russia. Like it had already dropped off its cargo or passengers. My wildly uninformed peanut gallery 2 cents is that both claims are wrong, the plane was empty).

Last edited by crescent; 24th January 2024 at 08:47 AM.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 08:48 AM   #58
lobosrul5
Philosopher
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 7,230
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Ukraine shot down an IL-76 (big four engine airplane) near Belgorod. Il-76s are general purpose transports, used for both cargo and military passengers.

The shoot-down of the plane is not denied but the contents of the plane are in dispute.

Ukraine claims that the plane was transporting weapons, possibly from Iran. Russia claims it was transporting Ukrainian POWs for a prisoner exchange, as many as 80 of them.

Russia has published a list of the names of the POWs killed in the crash. A basic name check shows that a bunch of the names are of former POWs who were exchanged a few weeks ago.

Ukrainians are doubtful, pointing out that in previous exchanges all soldiers were transported by train.

The Russians are going for a full court press with the killed POW thing, claiming that Ukraine knew full well that the plane was full of POWs because Russia had informed them of it as part of the planning for the exchange. The pro-Russian social media world is pushing really hard on this, frothing at the mouth and eye-rolling and loud loud LOUD.

So I think this will dominate the news from Ukraine for at least a week or two. They are equating it to the downing of the Dutch airline (MH-17) in 2014.

(The odd part is that the plane was heading north away from Belogorad and Ukraine, deeper into Russia. Like it had already dropped off its cargo or passengers. My wildly uninformed peanut gallery 2 cents is that both claims are wrong, the plane was empty).
Even were it to have been full of Ukrainian POW's (highly dubious), this is nothing like MH-17. Russian propaganda loves to forget they are at war whenever Ukraine hits something they think should be out of bounds.
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 08:59 AM   #59
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,698
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Even were it to have been full of Ukrainian POW's (highly dubious), this is nothing like MH-17. Russian propaganda loves to forget they are at war whenever Ukraine hits something they think should be out of bounds.

....and in other news, water is wet.

But the Ru-leaning people don't care.

In their worldview MH-17 was intentionally shot down by Ukraine with the specific intent of blaming Russia. And a huge hunk of the world still believes that. So in their worldview, Ukraine has done it again.

This will be brought up by Ru-leaning politicians everywhere - both far left and far right. The U.N., the E.U., the U.S. Presidential race. One of the values of forums like this is the ability to get ahead of that sort of deliberate misinformation.

For example I think this will absolutely get caught up in the current American debate over the next aid package to Ukraine, the role of Hungary in the EU and Hungarian acceptance of Sweden into NATO.

Misinformation need not be true to have a ginormous impact, and my sense is that this claim will be pushed very, very, very hard and will have a big impact.

Last edited by crescent; 24th January 2024 at 09:03 AM.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 09:04 AM   #60
lobosrul5
Philosopher
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 7,230
Originally Posted by crescent View Post
....and in other news, water is wet.

But the Ru-leaning people don't care.

In their worldview MH-17 was intentionally shot down by Ukraine with the specific intent of blaming Russia. And a huge hunk of the world still believes that. So in their worldview, Ukraine has done it again.

This will be brought up by Ru-leaning politicians everywhere - both far left and far right. The U.N., the E.U., the U.S. Presidential race. One of the values of forums like this is the ability to get ahead of that sort of deliberate misinformation.

For example I think this will absolutely get caught up in the current American debate over the next aid package to Ukraine, the role of Hungary in the EU and Hungarian acceptance of Sweden into NATO.

Misinformation need not be true to have a ginormous impact, and my sense is that this claim will be pushed very very very hard and will have a big impact.
JFC, as if the MAGA crowd couldn't make me puke any more. If their next excuse is... bbbbbuttt the Ukrainians shot down a Russian military transport just minding its own business. How horribly inhumane! It. Is. A. War!
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 09:17 AM   #61
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,698
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
JFC, as if the MAGA crowd couldn't make me puke any more. If their next excuse is... bbbbbuttt the Ukrainians shot down a Russian military transport just minding its own business. How horribly inhumane! It. Is. A. War!
The phrasing I'm seeing is... bbbbbuttt the Ukrainians murdered a plane load of their own soldiers!

The claims they are pushing are that:
1: The plane was loaded with POWs for an exchange.
2: Ukraine knew that
3: Maybe some sort of agreement about flying that plane into Belgorod because of #1
4: So those mad-dog Ukrainians broke the agreement from #3 and just murdered 60+ of their own soldiers. Terrorism!

Likely all four points are false. Video of the wreckage shows no bodies.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 09:45 AM   #62
Jimbo07
Illuminator
 
Jimbo07's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,498
Poor Russia. Always the victim. Won't someone please think of the Russians?


That aside, it's why they want to Trump to win. It's not because they can control Trump (even if he's easily bought/flattered/etc. he also doesn't like to be told what to do and can turn on an ally in an instant (in fact, that's why I don't buy conspiracies that the Russians own him (insert 3rd level parentheses here, but I digress))). They want him to win, because he lies in the same way. It spreads the poison. Nothing they say has to be true, because the whole exercise makes getting at the truth too exhausting for the average information consumer. In the end, the truth becomes irrelevant!
__________________
This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group.

Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key
Jimbo07 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 09:59 AM   #63
Dr.Sid
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 4,726
Agree. I'm not sure if Trump would abandon Ukraine or nuke Moscow. I'm just sure it won't be good for anyone.
Dr.Sid is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 10:01 AM   #64
lobosrul5
Philosopher
 
lobosrul5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 7,230
Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Agree. I'm not sure if Trump would abandon Ukraine or nuke Moscow. I'm just sure it won't be good for anyone.
I'm thinking the former is 10000 times more likely than the latter. He's also now on the record for abandoning Taiwan to Xi.
lobosrul5 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 11:07 AM   #65
Jimbo07
Illuminator
 
Jimbo07's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,498
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I'm thinking the former is 10000 times more likely than the latter. He's also now on the record for abandoning Taiwan to Xi.
Oh, I'd agree the former is more likely. However, I wouldn't rule some other course of action out. Trump has historically turned on allies on a dime! If either Putin or Xi failed to sufficiently fluff him, he could turn on them.
__________________
This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group.

Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key
Jimbo07 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 12:03 PM   #66
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 8,060
Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Even were it to have been full of Ukrainian POW's (highly dubious), this is nothing like MH-17. Russian propaganda loves to forget they are at war whenever Ukraine hits something they think should be out of bounds.
Another thing making this unlikely is that a country with a working railroad system is not likely to move around POWs in aircraft. There is no rush and that is expensive.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 12:08 PM   #67
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 8,060
Originally Posted by icerat View Post
They're not so much trying to "win" though as simply try to wear out the "enemy" and their supporters to the point where they simply don't think it's worth the cost any more, negotiations occur, they get to keep much of what they've taken.

Rinse and repeat.

It's why, if Ukraine had fallen, there is no doubt in my mind a war with the Baltic states was inevitable - the risk assessment in Moscow will be that the west isn't willing to fight as hard and as long as Russia, and will eventually negotiate something, even in an attack on NATO.

That risk remains unless Russia is thoroughly defeated.

The Kremlin simply doesn't care about the cost, human or otherwise.
They are betting their will to throw away lives will out last Ukraine's willingness to resist. Not a good bet.

That said, Ukraine needs to work on shortening the length of the front to outlast the Russians. A nearly 1000 km front line works better for the side with the larger number of people.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 12:14 PM   #68
Doubt
Philosopher
 
Doubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 8,060
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I didn’t say it was. All I said is they used it, and they won. Which disproves the assertion that using it indicates you will lose. Using it against Ukraine probably isn’t a good idea either, but they could still win (meaning holding onto significant Ukrainian territory when the conflict ends).
The only way Russia wins this is if they can inflict enough casualties to bleed Ukraine white. By using human wave attacks, the Russians are the ones ending up on with an over weighted end of the friendly to enemy loss ratios that should favor them. The current strategy is one that likely collapses when the army starts to stage larger scale revolts that won't end the same way Wagner failed.

That does not mean a revolt will topple the govrenment. But it will destroy Russia's ability to fight faster than anything Ukraine can do on the battlefield.
__________________
45 es un titere
Doubt is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 12:20 PM   #69
pzkpfw
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 254
Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
Another thing making this unlikely is that a country with a working railroad system is not likely to move around POWs in aircraft. There is no rush and that is expensive.
Also, according to Euromaidan press https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/...ut-no-clarity/

"... as one Ukrainian OSINT analyst told RBC-Ukraine, the crashed IL-76 aircraft with registration number RA-78830 previously flew through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and Iran, disappeared from radars near Syria, and then reappeared over Belgorod."

That would be quite a joyride. (They claim this is evidence for the plan being used for arms transfer.)
pzkpfw is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 01:10 PM   #70
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 56,168
Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
The only way Russia wins this is if they can inflict enough casualties to bleed Ukraine white.
I don't think that's the only way they can win. They can also win (again, meaning maintaining control over a significant fraction of Ukrainian territory) if the west scales back its supply of weapons and ammunition.

Quote:
By using human wave attacks, the Russians are the ones ending up on with an over weighted end of the friendly to enemy loss ratios that should favor them.
Again, I'm not saying that this is a very effective tactic. But it's also not the only thing they're doing. Nor am I predicting that Russia will win, only that it's still possible.

Quote:
The current strategy is one that likely collapses when the army starts to stage larger scale revolts that won't end the same way Wagner failed.
That would be nice, but I wouldn't count on it. The most hoped for outcomes frequently don't come to pass.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 01:49 PM   #71
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 69,333
I don't think that counts as a win for Moscow. It just shifts a bit, the venue of the "occupied territory" problem this special military operation was ostensibly supposed to solve. Meanwhile they've eaten a strategic bowl of dicks to accomplish this little. It's a pyrrhic victory, without the victory part. Subjugation of Ukraine is off the table. Ukraine continues to deepen its ties with Europe and NATO. NATO is expanding, both de jure and de facto. European energy markets are weaning off Russian products, and that commercial relationship has soured. Control of the Black Sea is off the table. The freedom of Sevastopol is off the table. Gaining a few hundred square miles more of contested territory, while losing Uncontested Sevastopol, has to be considered a defeat for Russia, no matter how much they proclaim "I meant to do that!" in extremis.

Moscow has lost status, influence, and real military power, in ways that will be very difficult to recover from, for decades. Instead of clawing their way out of their economic incident pit, they're slipping further in. Maybe if they had all of Ukraine to show for it, the way they have Belarus, it would be worth it. Ukraine could still lose this, but I think it's past the point where Moscow can actually win.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 04:08 PM   #72
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 56,168
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I don't think that counts as a win for Moscow.
At this point, I think it would. I think Putin has given up on the original stated goals, and this is what he's aiming for now.

Quote:
Meanwhile they've eaten a strategic bowl of dicks to accomplish this little. It's a pyrrhic victory, without the victory part.
I agree to a significant extent, but in some ways that's all sunk costs now. From this point going forward, what can Russia hope to achieve? Holding onto territory. That's what victory consists of now, despite the losses they've already taken.

Quote:
Subjugation of Ukraine is off the table. Ukraine continues to deepen its ties with Europe and NATO. NATO is expanding, both de jure and de facto. European energy markets are weaning off Russian products, and that commercial relationship has soured. Control of the Black Sea is off the table.
I agree. But these are all basically baked in now. It's reasonable to reconsider what victory and defeat mean in terms of what the two parties are trying to achieve now, not simply what their original goals were. Ukraine's original goal was simply to survive, now it's to retake all the territory they ever lost. Yes, a Russian victory in terms of current goals can still mean defeat in terms of original goals, and I agree that they've suffered defeat in terms of those original goals, but the current conversation is focused on the current goals, not the original ones. This isn't the only way to look at the problem, but it's still a worthwhile way to. And I was explicit about what I meant by a Russian victory precisely to distinguish those current goals from the original ones.

Quote:
The freedom of Sevastopol is off the table.
I don't think Putin has ever been interested in freedom. But I don't think control of Sevastopol is off the table, not yet.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2024, 05:48 PM   #73
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 69,333
I guess my view is that the new goal is simply making a virtue of necessity. They wanted to solve the occupied territory problem by subjugating the rest of the country and cutting it off from western support. In practical terms, they're actually worse off than they were before the invasion.

I'm also worried that if we accept Moscow's new, sour grapes formulation, we'll be less likely to continue supporting Ukraine, if they want to keep up the deep strikes into Crimea and beyond.
__________________
There is no Antimemetics Division.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th January 2024, 06:02 AM   #74
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 56,168
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I guess my view is that the new goal is simply making a virtue of necessity.
I agree, but given that it is the new goal, it's worth examining whether or how it can be achieved.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 29th January 2024, 02:49 PM   #75
crescent
Philosopher
 
crescent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,698
General Zaluzhny (Ukrainian Armed Frorces Commander in Chief) may have been fired. Or not fired. Or something.

Ukrainian official channels are claiming that he has not been fired. But a few Ukr parliamentarians are insisting that he has been. No comment from either Zelensky nor Zaluzhny themselves. Journalists with "inside sources" all leaked the same information at about the same time and it seemed certain.

Now everybody seems to be scrambling to figure out what happened. Maybe a wildly successful Russian disinformation operation, or maybe Zelensky actually demanded his resignation and expected him to comply such that it was already leaked to the press but then Zaluzhny refused.

Who knows. He's still there, but the pro-Russian trolls are still dancing around like idiot monkeys celebrating his demise. Which hasn't happened.
crescent is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2024, 05:20 AM   #76
ohms
Graduate Poster
 
ohms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,597
Russia loses another ship, this time the Tarantul-class corvette Ivanovets

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._sea_kamikaze/

Some amazing footage!
__________________
Long time lurker
ohms is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2024, 05:37 AM   #77
Mike!
Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it!
 
Mike!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not!
Posts: 52,864
Originally Posted by ohms View Post
Russia loses another ship, this time the Tarantul-class corvette Ivanovets

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._sea_kamikaze/

Some amazing footage!
Wow!
__________________
"Never judge a man until you’ve walked a mile in his shoes...
Because then it won't really matter, you’ll be a mile away and have his shoes."
Mike! is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st February 2024, 07:43 AM   #78
Dr.Sid
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic
Posts: 4,726
Did they just hit the same spot twice ? Beautiful.
Dr.Sid is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th February 2024, 08:34 AM   #79
Jimbo07
Illuminator
 
Jimbo07's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,498
So the collapse in support has happened far sooner than I predicted. It's because I wasn't being smart. Trump doesn't even need to be in office to scupper a border deal!

I'd say it's time for Ukraine to give up, if Russia wasn't so damned incompetent to begin with! I've seen some saying that NATO has underestimated Russia's ability to produce war materiel. Counter to that, Russia needs to spend 30% of its budget next year on the war (and counting internal security maybe up to 40%). How long can that be sustained? At this point, for both sides, it's a case of having to hold on until the other reaches the bottom.

I make no predictions at this time.
__________________
This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group.

Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key
Jimbo07 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th February 2024, 08:54 AM   #80
icerat
Philosopher
 
icerat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: sweden
Posts: 5,752
Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
I'd say it's time for Ukraine to give up, if Russia wasn't so damned incompetent to begin with!
When the option is fight or die, "give up" is never an option.

Europe is stepping up support in response to the Putin puppets in the GOP,
while Russia continues to trade hundreds of lives for square meters of land.

We'll see what happens with the purported new Russian Kharkiv offensive, but it mostly appears to all be about political theatre prior to the Russian election.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones are increasingly taking the war to Russian cities.
__________________
Benford's law of controversy - Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available
icerat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:41 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.