Technical Analysis II

Samson said:

I will wipe the floor with unobtainium (I hope it's a reasonably inexpensive cleaning product) but I am having computer issues. I would like to short light sweet crude at 39.17 right now...

ETA buy stop loss 43.50, no profit target but will advise when the moment arrives.

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ha. if you can beat the Skeptica base fund you'll be annihilating a buy and hold on the S&P from 01 Jan 2015, (edit and just beat 01 Jan 2014 @ 1834, currently too lulz) that would be a good start. I suggest you set realistic goals to start, to avoid disappointment, there is after all only less than one month left until Year End Reporting

[imgw=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/lordofthealgos.png[/imgw]

So as we have had a change of ownership of one fund following a reluctant client redemption, and the fund has a healthy profit buffer in place now, and could survive nearly 3xDDmax (3 x the maximum running drawdown thus far, booked out as an actual loss) and still be at around 100%, at the beginning of month 2 the internal leverage has been increased across the board by +62.5% to start to speed things up a bit.

[Censored] the bearded one is also ecstatic with his way above chance Month 1 performance and said we could have won the $Million anyway with this performance a couple of years back, but he's definitely interested in a Forbes membership one day if possible (quickly please he doesnt have 35 years to wait) and so his internal leverage has now been wound up by +80 to +100%

in both cases these funds have now changed their nature from the smooth defensive "safe start" Skeptica approach with limited running drawdowns, into much more aggressive funds by nature. this will be reflected moving forwards as higher running drawdowns than the Skeptica Funds.

The fast cumulative nature of the compounding growth now means each trade on each account is taken as 1 + X% of the increased balance, so a +20% account size means each trade is 1.2 x original trade lot size, on a per trade basis.. ie an increase from +20.00% to 21.00% means the system next takes 1.21 lots, instead of 1.2. usefully, it obviously also decreases lot size automatically (at my end, I cant speak for each individual system's behaviour) as an account reduces size too.

hence the balance will start to go exponential extremely quickly IF the continuing trade feed continues to perform at above chance levels, to apply continuous upwards pressure.

with the considerably increased leverage on these 2 accounts now too, if we continue going upwards I would expect them both to outperform and catch all the Skeptica funds fairly quickly moving forwards. *Mr $Million* is now running at Stock Slayer leverage settings, but just with the original 4 Skeptica traders only.

of course the change brings a risk that increasing the leverage (greed) at the same time as the system runs into a thus-far uncharacteristic series of bad losses, and the higher leverage destroys faster than the gains were built. happily however this fund is a pair trade pitted against (and funded by) an Apple Short sale at $120 which is not looking like new all time highs any time soon either.

the bearded million account operated on the stock slayer settings and traders, simulated performance with live (real money trading) back data, since Sept 2013.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/randi-stock-slayin.png[/IMGW]

so just how confident is everybody that this can / will not continue as a net winner for another year or two? and if so, given that it can easily produce good average annual returns in a month, might that not be a useful enough length of time anyway?

I am awake while oil futures trade at a seven year low, 37.55, so I recommend taking profit here for $1.62. (sold at 39.17 in part one, post number four thousand one hundred and sixty four). The live fund sold A200 cfds at 5158.24 and took profit at 5136.64. This represents a 9.8% increase in the fund balance.

Samson said:

I am awake while oil futures trade at a seven year low, 37.55, so I recommend taking profit here for $1.62. (sold at 39.17 in part one, post number four thousand one hundred and sixty four). The live fund sold A200 cfds at 5158.24 and took profit at 5136.64. This represents a 9.8% increase in the fund balance.

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which live fund?

kevsta said:

which live fund?

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www.pretendmoney.com

kevsta said:

which live fund?

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The new live fund that was established to compete with your unobtainium. The trades log will follow.

Samson said:

The new live fund that was established to compete with your unobtainium. The trades log will follow.

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As you wish.

I was just peeking to see what you might say on your return. Carry on. You might wish to follow keysta's example of use of interesting color and graphics.

Giordano said:

As you wish.

I was just peeking to see what you might say on your return. Carry on. You might wish to follow keysta's example of use of interesting color and graphics.

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They are always ignored unfortunately, but if you refer to thread one there are scores of pictures.

Samson said:

They are always ignored unfortunately, but if you refer to thread one there are scores of pictures.

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erm.. not to answer for anybody else but he said interesting ones

..and there are Forex trade signal suppliers in there:

a) shorting (Aus200 CFDs?) and..
b) at 10% win size for 20 odd points ?

kevsta said:

erm.. not to answer for anybody else but he said interesting ones

..and there are Forex trade signal suppliers in there:

a) shorting (Aus200 CFDs?) and..
b) at 10% win size for 20 odd points ?

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I used 55% of available margin, thus highly leveraged in the traditional sense. For example I just took 36.7 points profit on dow cfds, and this generated an increase of 4.6% in the cash balance. At present I am unable to post pictures as the trading laptop will not open an internet browser.

Samson said:

I used 55% of available margin, thus highly leveraged in the traditional sense. For example I just took 36.7 points profit on dow cfds, and this generated an increase of 4.6% in the cash balance. At present I am unable to post pictures as the trading laptop will not open an internet browser.

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That's what I would have done too.

Except for the not posting pictures part.

Samson said:

I used 55% of available margin, thus highly leveraged in the traditional sense. For example I just took 36.7 points profit on dow cfds, and this generated an increase of 4.6% in the cash balance. At present I am unable to post pictures as the trading laptop will not open an internet browser.

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so this is not an autotrade account, its a broker demo account you are trading manually? don't worry about images, just register it on myfxbook and give us the account analytics link

kevsta said:

so this is not an autotrade account, its a broker demo account you are trading manually? don't worry about images, just register it on myfxbook and give us the account analytics link

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No it is traditional money that I earned or stole. The trade logs are in the cloud and cannot be edited. I am manually entering each trade in the same way anyone can, A little down the track I will post them to this thread immediately after, so any member or lurker can trade them. Of course they could have done so in Part one and made 34% in 24 weeks.

so another big day for Skeptica yesterday, the weekend drawdowns once again recovered themselves and pushed up again on Monday, and yesterday afternoon passed some fairly big landmarks.

+20% Total (weighted) fund gain, and a double S&P out-performance, Skeptica (base) out-ran it since 01 Jan 2014 and SkepticaGrowth outperformed it since Jan 2013.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Skeptica-outperforms-S-P.png[/IMGW]

[IMGW=800]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/SP500.png[/IMGW]

along with UnObtainium also passing 20% total fund gain, and in fact, passing Skeptica (total weighted gain) already.

with any luck Stock-Slayer should replicate the entire run from 666 to 2125 (+210%) in 3 months or so..

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/unobtained.png[/IMGW]

We sold dow 30 cfds at 17590.2, based on the algorithm that views price history alone. Current market price is 17553.2. Should we take profit or wait for Armageddon? Statistical theory says take profit, yet, as Don describes it, there will probably be an inelegant dismount instead.

Samson said:

We sold dow 30 cfds at 17590.2, based on the algorithm that views price history alone. Current market price is 17553.2. Should we take profit or wait for Armageddon? Statistical theory says take profit, yet, as Don describes it, there will probably be an inelegant dismount instead.

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I'm lightly short the S&P (live account) from 2070 yesterday. worth a pop, as the market only has one week left to "turmoil" to try and dissuade the Money-Granny from raising rates next week.

lol. all these Muppet Hedge funds trying to take macro bets instead of just trading the red and blue game, no clue..

Biggest Hedge Fund Casualties since Draghi Disappointed last week..

Considering that virtually every macro hedge fund had fallen to Draghi's hypnotic spell that the EUR was going lower, further abetted by Goldman's confident call that the EURUSD would see a 300 pip move lower on Thursday, it is safe to say that everyone was on the same side of the boat.

CFYC Commitment of Traders data confirm this, showing that bets by hedge funds on the euro falling outnumbered bets on the euro rising by 4.7 to 1 as of Nov. 24. Which explains the violent, almost unprecedented market response to the ECB's disappointing announcement.

"Everyone and their mother were short the euro," one London-based hedge-fund investor told the WSJ.

And, as the WSJ adds betting on a weaker euro and a stronger dollar has been one of the most popular positions for macro hedge funds, if only until Thursday when things... changed.

Hedge-fund investors say the lion’s share of major macro funds had bet against the euro ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, when President Mario Draghi underwhelmed markets with news of a cut in the deposit rate to minus 0.3% and a six-month extension of its bond-buying program.

“I think it’s been painful for a lot of people,” said Michele Gesualdi, chief investment officer of Kairos Partners in London, which oversees €8 billion ($8.7 billion) in assets and invests in hedge funds. “Pretty much everyone was short the euro. The view was very clear for everyone.”

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kevsta said:

I'm lightly short the S&P (live account) from 2070 yesterday. worth a pop, as the market only has one week left to "turmoil" to try and dissuade the Money-Granny from raising rates next week.

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Turmoil as a verb. I quite like it. You can abandon the quote marks when it makes shorter oxford. Interestingly American stocks have been turmoiling for 12 months. This usually means a serious drop. Japanese stocks have been turmoiling for 25 years, and english stocks for 18 years. American stocks turmoiled from 1960 to 1982. Of course dividends are paid during these times.