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#201 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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#202 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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Actually, although I find the context incomprehensible, the mention of 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles sounds as if somebody is using standard deviations in there. 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles is ± 2 standard deviations from the mean. At a wild, semi-educated guess, this definition might simply be that the "envelope" is produced by joining up all the -2SD points below the means and the +2SD points above the means. Makes some sort of reasonable sense to me. We know that Roy has not done this, because if he had, it would be impossible for the lines to cross. And some of them do. Also, the resulting lines would not be individual spectra at all, still less "representative" spectra. While in fact all the "representative spectra" traces are lines on the "envelope of differences" figure. So I still think he just chose a couple of traces for each preparation and called them "envelope of differences". And also "representative spectra". How is it possible to be this incompetent? And for the scrutineering to be this incompetent? I mean, if you're going to obfuscate and wiggle and wave your hands like this, deliberately misrepresenting your data, why not just make the data up while you're about it? Then you could make it credible, too. And we'd actually have to try to repeat the experiment to show you'd invented the results, and you could just accuse us of being rubbish at doing the experiment, and we'd be here till Kingdom Come. It's beyond me. Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#203 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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#204 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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Fixed.
Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#205 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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OK, just for the record, here's the actual text that went in the envelope with the stamp stuck on it. It's not much changed from the draft above.
Wilsontown - do you think the people over at Bad Science would like to see it? I'd post it myself, but I never managed to register there and it's a while since the site has accepted unregistered comments.
Quote:
Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#206 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,853
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Thanks, Rolfe, a job really well-done.
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#207 |
Butterbeans and Breadcrumbs
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Emily's shop
Posts: 17,640
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I can post it for you, if you like, Rolfe. Do you want it in the blog (under the appropriate paper discussion), or in the forums, or both?
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#208 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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I was thinking about the "journal club" part of the blog, under the discussion of the paper. Someone else had some interesting (and scathing) comments on the Raman spectroscopy there too. But wherever you think it's most appropriate, really.
Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#209 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Rolfe:
Again, congratulations on a job very well done. It will be very interesting to see what happens next... |
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#210 |
Butterbeans and Breadcrumbs
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Emily's shop
Posts: 17,640
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Sponsor me please! http://www.justgiving.com/Catherine-Kiernan http://www.justgiving.com/Catherine-Kiernan1 My blog |
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#211 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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If anything.... I've still to drop a copy off to Elsevier - I haven't written the "more in sorrow than in anger" covering letter yet. Tonight. I don't suppose anyone will take a blind bit of notice. They don't want to test their hypotheses, all they want is "publications in a peer-reviewed journal" they can point to and say, look, there's real science behind this nonsense. This paper fulfils that need perfectly, and I imagine has been written for precisely that purpose. However, at least we can say we've done our bit, and gone through the proper channels to draw attention to the abysmal academic standards of the thing. Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#212 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#213 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Quote:
As a suggestion: Rather than sending it to Peter Fisher as a letter, it might be worth submitting it to Homeopathy as an article, entitled 'Comment on “The defining role of structure (including epitaxy) in the plausibility of homeopathy”'. Then they would surely have to find an excuse not to publish it, which should be at least entertaining. The downside would be that Rao et al. would normally get a chance to respond, which would probably just further muddy the water. |
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#214 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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Ah well, it's in the hands of the postman now. But that doesn't mean we can't re-submit it in the form you suggest if he ignores the letter.
Hey, anyone know what happened to typondis? He she or it is now showing up as a "guest", and has not posted since about 5th August. The "guest" designation on H'pathy Forums usually means you've been banned, but not here as far as I know, and I see no record of any disciplinary action taken against this poster. Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#215 |
Mostly harmless
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Nor Flanden
Posts: 35,896
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"You got to use your brain." - McKinley Morganfield "The poor mystic homeopaths feel like petted house-cats thrown at high flood on the breaking ice." - Leon Trotsky |
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#216 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#217 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Thought people might be interested to see this, over at Bad Science:
http://www.badscience.net/?p=528 I take it there's been no word from Peter Fisher as yet? |
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#218 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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Oh, that's good! So Peter may be getting some more correspondence? I've heard not a syllable about our letter, needless to say.
Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#219 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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I just posted a copy of the letter on Philip Ball's blog. Seemed appropriate since Peter Fisher had already commented there. Maybe he should attend to his correspondence instead of adding comments to blogs?
Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#220 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 476
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Bringing up Rustum Roy, he's been in the news again for salt water fuels
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...0911/20070911/ Has this been discussed elsewhere? And do his findings have any merit to them WRT salt water? (I now have a very biased impression of his work after reading through these forums) ETA : *I know this doesn't have to do with homeopathy, but it does seem to be another bomb that RR has dropped on us lately... |
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#221 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Not on Rustum Roy's stuff, but I put together some brief comments on Martin Chaplin's paper in the same issue of Homeopathy. Might submit them for publication. Any comments welcome:
Martin F. Chaplin presents an interesting overview on the structure of water1. Disappointingly, though, it seems to contain no useful evidence of a ‘water memory’ effect that would be relevant to the efficacy or otherwise of homeopathic treatments. As is well known, the chance of a 12c dilution (a dilution factor of 1x1024) containing a single molecule of the ‘mother tincture’ used to prepare the remedy is on the order of 1 in 2 billion. So homeopaths require that water (or water/ethanol mixtures) somehow structurally ‘remember’ the mother tincture, and it is this structure that is responsible for any effect of homeopathic preparations. But Chaplin1 appears to be talking about an entirely different effect when he states that “If there is evidence that the history of a sample of water affects its properties, then the ‘memory of water’ concept is proven without the need for a rationale for its action” (p. 146). This apparently broad interpretation explains some of the examples given as “Evidence for the memory of water”, which otherwise appear to have little to do with homeopathic remedies, where the mother tincture must continue to influence water structure even when absent. For example, Chaplin1 (p. 146) states that “human taste is quite capable of telling the difference between two glasses of water, processed in different ways (eg one fresh and one undrunk for several days)”. There is nothing mysterious about this. It is a result of impurities in the atmosphere (atmospheric gases, particulates, dead skin cells, etc.) becoming dissolved or suspended in the water. This appears to have nothing to do with how a mother tincture diluted out of existence has any effect on water structure. In the homeopathic context, what would be really interesting is if it were possible to taste the difference, say, between two 30c dilutions made from different mother tinctures prepared under identical conditions. Chaplin also refers to the Vybíral and Voráček paper in the special issue of Homeopathy2, stating that the authors “have shown that water changes its properties with time and its previous history”1 (p. 146). There is no doubt that this is an interesting paper, but the authors specifically conclude that their results are a consequence of ions dissolved in the water, as the effect they observe is not present when deionised water is used. Again, it is unclear how this is relevant to cases where mother tinctures are diluted out of existence. What Chaplin seems to be talking about in his paper is how impurities might affect water structure, as illustrated when he states “The water used for dilution is not pure relative to the putative concentration of the ‘active’ ingredient, with even the purest water considered grossly contaminated compared with the theoretical homeopathic dilution levels. This contamination may well have a major influence, and itself be influenced by the structuring in the water it encounters”1 (p. 148). Since the concentration of the mother tincture will always be dwarfed by the concentration of impurities, it is difficult to see why the mother tincture should have an effect more important than the impurities on the water structure. Homeopathic remedies are not ‘just water’: they will contain significant amounts of impurities. But how this would make them different from any sample of water is not clear. I am in agreement with Chaplin when he states that “simply proving that water does have a memory does not prove that homeopathic medicines work”. The best evidence as to whether homeopathic medicines work or not is to be found in randomised placebo-controlled trials of the medicines. A recent meta-analysis3 has demonstrated that the best-conducted trials show no effect for homeopathic remedies beyond placebo. The structure of water is certainly a fascinating subject, but, in terms of an explanation for homeopathy, it is not relevant as all the best evidence shows that there is nothing to explain. 1. Chaplin, M.F. The memory of water: an overview. Homeopathy 2007; 96: 143-150 2. Vybíral, B. and Voráček, P. Long term structural effects in water: autothixotropy of water and its hysteresis. Homeopathy 2007; 96: 183–188. 3. Shang, A., Huwiler-Müntener, K., Nartey, L., Jüni, P., Dörig, S., Sterne, J.A.C., Pewsner, D., Egger, M. Are the clinical effects of homoeopathy placebo effects? Comparitive study of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy and allopathy. Lancet 2005; 366: 726-732. |
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#222 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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I would tend to lay off the reference to Shang. It's a red rag to a bull, with homoeopaths. The entire thrust of that issue seems to be, the hell with whether or not there is any therapeutic effect, let's just look at whether the remedies could have any odd properties. I'd frame any criticism within those parameters.
The thing I've never been able to get any of them to take on board is, if there really was a genuine effect there, who would be most interested? Medical types would be quite interested, sure, but that's nothing to the attention they'd get from physicists and chemists. Basic sciences would be falling over themselves to be the first to characterise the phenomenon and get the Nobel Prize. Instead, all we have is this small handful of kooks and weirdos, who can't produce work good enough to get published in any non-woo journal. Conclusions? Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#223 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Rolfe:
You're right, of course. I'm in two minds as to whether to include the Shang reference myself. The main reason why I think it would be worth including is that the work is published in Homeopathy, so if it's entirely irrelevant to homeopathy, what's it doing there? The point is that water is pretty cool stuff, but if you want to use it to explain homeopathy, there isn't actually anything to explain. You're howling at the moon. I appreciate that Shang et al. hasn't made the homeopaths admit defeat yet, so my bringing it up is unlikely to make much difference.
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#224 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Oh, and good job on posting the letter at Philip Ball's blog. That's a good place for it to be.
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#225 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#226 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,853
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This is quite beyond the pale. It is one thing to be incompetent at research in an area that is new to him; but he has no excuse not to know the thermodynamics.
RR has always been a loose cannon. Tenty-five years ago, when complaints about cuts in Federal research funding were rising, he called us "welfare queens in white coats." Of course, the money he got was not "welfare." [Note, I think welfare is called "the dole" in the UK. Also, Mythical "welfare queens" were women who had lots of kids in order to get more welfare to support their "lavish lifestyles."] |
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#227 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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The salt water... thing is being discussed here:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ad.php?t=92954 |
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#228 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 476
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Ah, found the right thread
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ad.php?t=92954 However, I will say this here. According to the recent story, RR states,
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ETA - darn my slow typing skills... thanks Pipirr! |
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#229 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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Folks, time for an update on the Rao et al. paper.
In the latest edition of Homeopathy, Rao et al. publish an erratum. I reproduce it in full, here, and for added excitement, behind a spoiler tag: ![]() |
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#230 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 10,226
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Have you had any reply to the letter y'all sent to the editors of Homeopathy? If not, have you considered trying to take it to a different audience? It was too good to go to waste.
Linda |
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#231 |
Gatekeeper of The Left
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 37,538
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I'll wager that this is wholly non-reproducible...
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For what doth it profit a man, to fix one bug, but crash the system? |
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#232 |
Adult human female
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 48,301
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If only that was the only error.... I thought maybe they'd at least realised about the error in the figure that we pointed out, if nothing else. I've spread the letter as far over the Net as I reasonably can. Wilsontown submitted it electronically as a letter to the editor, to complement my reliance on postage stamps. What else could we try? Rolfe. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#233 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 10,226
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#234 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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See if it's wanted over at BadScience, Improbable Science (David Colquhoun), Swift, Respectful Insolence, etc. etc...?
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#235 |
Thinker
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 203
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#236 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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Folks:
According to the fancy Elsevier electronic submissions website, the status of the letter is "Decision in Process". I'll keep you all posted as to what actually happens to it. It is a journal submission (even if to a pseudojournal), and these always take a long time to process, to be fair. |
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#237 |
Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 127
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This very morning I was told that the letter has been accepted for publication in Homeopathy. It won't actually appear until the January issue, but they have actually accepted it.
Cool, eh? Wonder what the response of the authors will be? |
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#238 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Wuppertal
Posts: 1,959
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#239 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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#240 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,853
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In our letter (Post #205, this thread) we mention the possible presence of acetone in the "pure ethanol" spectrum. The reason for that guess comes from the absorbance peak at 324 nm, and the fact that acetone-denatured alcohol is a common solvent. It is called Specially Denatured Alcohol 23A. You can see some literature on it by googling "sda 23a". Although I have not found a UV-Vis spectrum for SDA 23A, this liquid does not appear even to be pure SDA because there is still too much absorption on either side of the 324nm peak.
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