Global warming discussion III

Status
Not open for further replies.
I showed an example right here in thread, where I noted that twice somebody claimed something, that was simply not true. Nobody else even noticed. Much less corrected the error.

That does not answer the question.

That's your fallacy again.

You have no idea what that word means. I have asked you a clear question. I did not attribute anything to you: I asked you how come you are right and they are wrong.

Your refusal to answer at this point can only stem from your deliberate unwillingness to commit to one possibility although your rhetoric certainly points that way.

I will therefore conclude that you indeed _are_ accusing the vast majority of climate scientists on Earth of fraud, but are too cowardly to come out and say it.
 
Somebody posts a mistake for the CO2 numbers, twice, and none of the experts here even notice.
Sorry, r-j, that is 2 more mistakes to add to your unsupported assertions and cherry picking a starting date to essentially lie about a trend
* no one where claims to be an expert. As far as I know no one in the thread is a climate scientist (but I am prepared to be pleasantly surprised!)
* I pointed out that the CO2 tonnage should have C tonnage:
Sorry, Mikemcc, but for once r-j's pedantic nitpicking without citing any of the sources that he insists with other posters sources so that he can ignore most of the post is right :D
In 2013, global CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use (and cement production) were 36 gigatonnes (GtCO2); this is 61% higher than 1990 (the Kyoto Protocol reference year) and 2.3% higher than 2012

What you have stated looks like the nearly 10 billion tonnes of C per annum (see that same web page).
and Mikemcc acknowledged the mistake:
Thank you, my bad. You are correct. (see r-j, it's not that difficult...)
 
Last edited:
If you claim something, like the above, that does not make it true. Obviously you don't like the answer, which is obvious.

No, actually, what you said has no relevance to what I said. I asked you why the experts did not pick up on the data meaning what you say it means, and you answered that "I showed an example right here in thread, where I noted that twice somebody claimed something, that was simply not true." How is that even related to my request ?

Continuing to ask questions after they have been answered, or insisting there has been no answer, when obviously there was an answer, what can I tell you? It's your problem.

If you think you've answered it, then be so kind to link to your answer to my question. Here it is again:

How come the data is so obvious to a layman like you, and yet most experts in the field disagree with your conclusions ?

Making up something, then asking questions about what you made up, that is a common fallacy.

Really ? Which fallacy is that ?
 
Have you seen the midwest lately? You would think the dust bowl has vanished from the national memory.
I live on the border where the historical tallgrass prairie/savanna gave way to the shortgrass prairie. My father's land was in Indiana where the tall grass prairie/savanna historically began. So yes. I see. I have seen for a long time. Every time I sweep the floor of windblown sand and dust blowing off neighbors fields, a daily event, I see. Every time I drive down the road and see red clay dirt instead of black mollic soil, I see.

You couldn't even imagine how poor the soil is around here in most farmers fields. By the same token you couldn't even imagine how rich and black the soil I have begun working with has become in just a few years.

I know a skeptics forum needs scientific evidence. Anecdotal accounts don't mean much. But when I can thrust my bare hand in the rich soil with no tilling or shovels, the same soil that only a few years ago my full 200+ pounds jumping up and down on a shovel like a pogo stick couldn't penetrate. Then you might be able to guess where my passion for this issue comes from.

I have no doubt what so ever that AGW is very real and that the soil is the key to the whole thing, both the problem and the solution.

What I don't understand is where your passion for the issue comes from? You have apparently seen it too .... or you wouldn't have posted what you did. Yet you appear to be obfuscating from time to time. Where does that come from?
 
Last edited:
That isn't true. When the evidence shows I was in error, I change my mind.

What do you do?

So what do we see here, is it dishonesty or short term memory loss?

A short recap. You said you haven't contacted the authors of the realclimate article you have built a conspiracy around because it was too difficult to find them. DC and I showed it was incredibly easy. You even acknowledged DC's post so you couldn't have missed it. Then not 48 hours later you come back with this.

Nobody here has provided a single page, link or email to contact anyone using the relaclimate blog, much less the two authors of the page under contention.

When we call you on this you come back online, completely ignore it with a look a squirrel post bringing up somebody else's error. Again what we are seeing here is not just the lack of quality of your argument it's the dishonesty.
 
Why I noticed it, while nobody else did? That is what you are in essence asking me.

Yes, and I notice you are still not answering it.

Why am I seeing it and you are not?

Now you are just deliberately dishonest. I have already told you that we are all laymen, here. In fact, in this very next quote of yours you mention "experts in the field", so you know I'm not talking about posters here. Despite that, you pretend that I mean something else.

First, you can't actually know what "most experts in the field" would say about my commentary.

Again you are being dishonest. Most experts in the field say that global warming is a real thing. You disagree, and say the evidence is obvious.. I want you to explain that to me. No more doding, no more lying. Answer the question. Last chance.

Now if you were asking "How come you are so much smarter than almost everyone I ever read or heard from about the climate and data and records and trends and what not?", or in other words, "Why am I only hearing this from you alone?", those questions I can answer.

And yet you don't.
 
You have never adressed the posts when i debunked your woo woo claims. I have never seen a person so dishonest as you are. You must think others dont realize how much of a liar you are. Yet you accuse others.... what a clownsshow you put up here.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10065538#post10065538

That was in New Zealand of course. No he didn't acknowledge it. He also seems to have gone along with the "heads must roll" conspiracy in Rutherglen. The same "data is being hidden", and cooling being hidden. This conspiracy mongering has been going on for a while of course. when Kestrel said to him.

The latest claim from climate change deniers is that the data is being altered to hide the truth.


R-j replied.
I brought that up here and my posts vanished. Shucks, I can even prove it is happening, but what's the point? There is always moving of the goal posts, rationalizations or worse. Nobody here who believes in warming is the least bit skeptical of anything that makes it seem like there is more warming.

The best he can come up with now to prove these conspiracies is is a blog article that he now says is most likely an "error". I do see what he means about the always moving goalposts except I'm not sure he was referring to himself.
 
Last edited:
Now try to be skeptical of all the other claims as well.

For example, do you believe that Midway is 2 miles from the lake? As was claimed above?

Why would anyone claim something like that? When with ease you can Google it?

What does posting false information gain you?

Of course this was never answered, much less even dealt with by any of the pseudo-experts here, which is why it is actually an answer to the question of "why do you think you are correct when the majority disagrees?"

Because over and over again obvious things are ignored, or worse, a false claim is made, and when it is corrected, with evidence showing why, it doesn't matter.

This is hubris. Those who suffer from it never know it, hence they simply can't see what is obvious.

If the collective intelligence and experience in this topic can't simply establish the distance from Midway airfield to Lake Michigan, there is no hope of the more complex questions being settled. This is something a 10 year old can establish, with no doubt at all, yet here it is a huge contention.

The original issue about the lake effect on temperatures of course never was returned to. The distance conflict (a red herring) is what matters.

Priceless.
 
Well, r-j, that was your last chance.

It is thus evident that you are indeed accusing most climate experts on the planet of fraud and dishonesty.

So here's my next question: What is your evidence for this ?
 
When I see this sort of thing, it is unfathomable. I just posted the following in the last 24 hours.



That is a clear and direct statement that what I posted before was incorrect. It means what I posted was wrong, something I have no problem correcting.

If you aren't wrong now and then, you aren't doing science.

Yes I noticed that r-j. I was immediately struck by it's uniqueness and somehow thought it might have been so that you could say look I admit to mistakes. Now admit to all your other ones. There is a huge backlog awaiting your attention.

ETA you could start with this blatent mis-truth which you have completely ignored.

Nobody here has provided a single page, link or email to contact anyone using the relaclimate blog, much less the two authors of the page under contention.
 
Last edited:
Ok r-j, I'll just conclude that you have no evidence and are simply speculating that they are lying because it's the only explanation for why you are right and they are all wrong; you know full well that they can't be all honestly wrong, after all.

This brings me to my next question: how does this climatologist conspiracy work, and what is its purpose ?
 
When I see this sort of thing, it is unfathomable. I just posted the following in the last 24 hours.



That is a clear and direct statement that what I posted before was incorrect. It means what I posted was wrong, something I have no problem correcting.

If you aren't wrong now and then, you aren't doing science.

so then why did you run away from my posts that showed you wrong ?
you never admited your errors. will you do that now?

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10065538#post10065538
 
Cause of California drought linked to climate change
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=132709&WT.mc_id=USNSF_52&WT.mc_ev=click


The atmospheric conditions associated with the unprecedented drought in California are very likely linked to human-caused climate change, researchers report.

Climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University and colleagues used a novel combination of computer simulations and statistical techniques to show that a persistent region of high atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean--one that diverted storms away from California--was much more likely to form in the presence of modern greenhouse gas concentrations.

The result, published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is one of the most comprehensive studies to investigate the link between climate change and California's ongoing drought.

"Our research finds that extreme atmospheric high pressure in this region--which is strongly linked to unusually low precipitation in California--is much more likely to occur today than prior to the emission of greenhouse gases that began during the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s," says Diffenbaugh.

The exceptional drought crippling California is by some measures the worst in state history.
Just one paper, of course, and a "much more likely" - but one thing that's for certain is that it's happening. If it doesn't break this winter things are going to get pretty tricky in some parts.
 
Sorry CapelDodger, but a paper published by the National Academy of Sciences found that 80% of the climate change on the west coast of the US probably has natural causes. This means that all the previous research is now defunct, the jig is up, and the conspiracy has been unmasked. Or at least those who I've seen post this story on other sites are trying to claim.

http://www.tpnn.com/2014/09/25/fede...imate-change-is-natural-not-caused-by-humans/

Here is a link to the abstract.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/09/16/1318371111.abstract
 
Sorry CapelDodger, but a paper published by the National Academy of Sciences found that 80% of the climate change on the west coast of the US probably has natural causes. This means that all the previous research is now defunct, the jig is up, and the conspiracy has been unmasked. Or at least those who I've seen post this story on other sites are trying to claim.
It was bound to happen, but you have to give us credit for keeping the hoax in play this long. And we'd have got away with it if it wasn't for those darn linear stochastic time series models.

That said, there's always this to lean on :
The Gulf of Alaska is unusually warm, and weird fish are showing up
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...unusually-warm-and-weird-fish-are-showing-up/

which features "unusual fish occurrences". I'd like to see anybody make a linear stochastic time series model of piscatory variance while keeping a straight face.
 
But then there is: Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States
... Anthropogenic forcing was a significant predictor of, and the leading contributor to, long-term warming; natural factors alone fail to explain the observed warming. Conversely, poor model skill for seasonal precipitation suggests that other factors need to be considered to understand the sources of seasonal precipitation trends.
The authors also commented on the above paper in a blog article:
Comments on “Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012” by Johnstone and Mantua
Synopsis: A preliminary examination of this paper suggests that the results – in particular the conclusion that rising greenhouse gases played little role in the warming of the US Pacific coastal states – rested very strongly on the authors’ selection of a single dataset and time period.
 
Sorry CapelDodger, but a paper published by the National Academy of Sciences found that 80% of the climate change on the west coast of the US probably has natural causes. This means that all the previous research is now defunct, the jig is up, and the conspiracy has been unmasked. Or at least those who I've seen post this story on other sites are trying to claim.

http://www.tpnn.com/2014/09/25/feder...sed-by-humans/

Here is a link to the abstract.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...71111.abstract

and

Significance

Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics. This study uses several independent data sources to demonstrate that century-long warming around the northeast Pacific margins, like multidecadal variability, can be primarily attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation. It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region’s recent climate change origins, showing that atmospheric conditions have changed substantially over the last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also apply to observed century-long trends.

Bottom line this is an analysis of a tiny part pf North America let alone the globe....

the northeast Pacific margin

Glaciers are also defying the global mass loss along the fringe of Alaska. There are regional reasons for that.

ALL of NAO, ENSO, PDO are "inside the box".....ie heat already stored and moved around through ocean currents and "warm pools" such as powers El Nino.

These are not global climate forcings - the are regional cycles that can be influenced by global AGW and in the case of La Nina help to blunt some of the more dire effects.

The paper in no way challenges AGW.
 
Last edited:
Sorry CapelDodger, but a paper published by the National Academy of Sciences found that 80% of the climate change on the west coast of the US probably has natural causes. This means that all the previous research is now defunct, the jig is up, and the conspiracy has been unmasked. Or at least those who I've seen post this story on other sites are trying to claim.

http://www.tpnn.com/2014/09/25/fede...imate-change-is-natural-not-caused-by-humans/

Here is a link to the abstract.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/09/16/1318371111.abstract

Because that's exactly how science works :rolleyes:

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth...

EDIT - Oh, wait, I only just caught the sarcasm in your post :p

http://www.climatescience.org.au/co...ndprint-human-caused-climate-change-australia

According to the research papers presented in BAMS, the impact of climate change significantly increased the chances of record heat events in 2013. Looking back over the observational record the researchers found global warming over Australia:
  • doubled the chance of the most intense heat waves,
  • tripled the likelihood of heatwave events,
  • made extreme summer temperature across Australia five time more likely
  • increased the chance of hot dry drought-like conditions seven times
  • made hot spring temperatures across Australia 30 times more likely.
But perhaps most importantly, it showed the record hot year of 2013 across Australia was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming. At its most conservative, the science showed the heat of 2013 was made 2000 times more likely by global warming.
 
Last edited:
I knew it would be a long wait. As in, forever.

I responded with two different links to map programs that sow clearly the distance. Yet not a word from anyone about this factual matter, much less acknowledging the obvious error.

Are you talking about the way the heartland is being treated? The bad soil management issue?

Obfuscating? Are you serious? About what? Give me an example.

Note that nobody responded to that either.

It's very very funny when somebody is trying, so very hard, to place the burden of proof on the skeptic, rather than the claimant. If somebody makes a claim, and the data, easily accessible data, shows they are wrong, then the skeptic isn't the one under the gun. It's the claimants. They of course never provided any evidence at all to support their claim, which is obviously a false claim. But instead of realizing this simple fact, the true believer wants the skeptics to actually prove a negative.

You see? Not only do the Berkely experts never name the station, but the believers want somebody to "attach the official records of the actual weather station", which is just too funny to describe.

It's like somebody claimed there were UFOs over New York City, they even landed in Central Park. When a skeptic notes there is no evidence of this happening, the believers insist the skeptic has to "attach 24 hour video of the Park for the day in question", because that is the only way they will accept it wasn't true.

It's so woo woo, it boggles the mind. Except in the above example, the claimant didn't actually say which park it was, so you have to attach 24 hours of video for every park in New York City, because if not the skeptics are liars.

And you must believe the UFOs actually landed.

Priceless.

and another post where r-j runs away from the posts that debunk his lies....... very telling.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10065538#post10065538

run forest run.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom