For some time now, I've had a mind to start this thread, which has to do with quantifying the depths of obscurity to which the 9/11 Truth Movement has sunk. However, with the recent discovery and killing of Usama bin Laden and the resulting final closure of the event that gave the Truth Movement life, now is perhaps the right time.
As we saw only a few nights ago, thousands turned out, spontaneously, in the dead of night, to Ground Zero to celebrate the news. A similar rally appeared at the White House. The sentiment was obvious at sporting events and in practically every urban center. These ad hoc gatherings eclipse the best turnout the Truth Movement ever achieved nationally after almost ten years of attempted rallies, no matter how long they planned, how nice the weather was, or what pseudo-celebrity appearances or other events they promised. In the face of this observation, there can be no argument that the Truthers are a tiny, literally negligible minority. In an unrelated irony, it also bears mention that Dr. Steven Jones, perhaps the closest the Truth Movement ever had to a legitimate scientist, continues to embarrass himself with reckless abandon at almost the same moment. These are blows from which the Truth Movement, if ever it was in fact a movement at all, cannot recover.
But is the Truth Movement really dead?
What do we mean by "dead," exactly? By the standard definition of life, I argued that it had expired over four years ago, and certainly it has produced nothing of note since that time. Similarly, long ago I tried to find the best figures among the Truth Movement, those most worthy of our attention, and found there were none. More recently -- three years ago -- I asked if anything new was taking place in the Truth Movement, and the answer was almost zero, certainly zero in the years since then.
On the other hand, do conspiracy theories actually die? One may argue that they do not -- the JFK and Moon Landing conspiracy believers, for instance, have accomplished nothing at all, yet there remain ineducable, insular communities of die-hard believers in these causes. Belief in all manner of Pearl Harbor conspiracies remains, and it goes without saying that Holocaust denial and even the infamous Protocols of the Elders of Zion still have many stubborn exponents. If one tried, one could probably find conspiracy theorists still grousing over the USS Maine, the Second Bank of the United States, or even the "real" killers of Julius Caesar. I won't even bring up biblical conspiracy theories.
By this standard, it is safe to assume that the Truth Movement, or Truthers at least, will never actually cease to exist. Achieving this goal is functionally similar to and no easier than completely stamping out illiteracy. One may as well throw in the towel, if this is where one draws the finish line.
A more prudent goal, I suggest, is this: To simply declare the Truth Movement "dead," or more accurately, negligible, when it can quantitatively and definitively be shown to be completely impotent. At this point, the more rational among us can safely disregard the Truth Movement, as the likelihood of it ever evolving, gaining influence, or producing anything worthy of scrutiny would be statistically unlikely. What we need, then, is a way to calculate this possibility.
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Which brings me to the title: Lost in Space. One possible analogy to communication between Truthers and the rest of us is found in space exploration. Consider, for a moment, the Truth Movement as a deep space probe -- a little entity all to its own, far removed from the normal world, with remarkable instruments in its possession yet limited in processor power, capable of making discoveries and sending messages back home.
Sometimes, these craft fail to respond.
In spacecraft design we utilize a trick called the Command Loss Timer. This is a counter on board the spacecraft that can only be reset from the ground. Its purpose is as follows: The spacecraft is programmed to expect communications on a semi-regular basis. If no communication occurs over a long period of time, such that the Command Loss Timer ticks down to zero, then the spacecraft changes its behavior under the assumption that something must have failed -- either its antenna pointing is wrong, its steering has gone bad, its radio has failed, or what have you. When the Timer expires, the spacecraft automatically goes into a "Safe Mode" where it makes itself as easy to talk to as possible (pointing wide-angle Low Gain Antennae towards Earth, warming up all receivers, resetting computers and conserving power, etc.), and simply waits.
What I envision is something similar for the Truth Movement. Let's say we give it, oh, sixty days from right now to say something insightful. It could be anything. It could be a new result or uncovering new evidence. It could be a well-formed hypothesis. It could be acknowledgement of some established but long-resisted fact, demonstrating that the Truth Movement still has some capability to learn or reason. It could even be "Just Asking a Question," provided the question is well-considered and sparks some thought to answer. Any one of these, I'll give it my personal thumbs-up and reset the timer.
What I expect to find, however, is that there is truly nothing going on in the Truth Movement, it's all been said before, they're happy in their squalid little trench, and that the sixty days will expire without a single iota of progress. If this is the case, I trust you will agree that it's as dead as any "movement" could possibly be.
Shall we try it? If anyone, Truther or not, thinks she's spotted a sign of life, please post it up here -- a link, an original post, whatever. I am genuinely curious. And please, no bashing of anyone. This is an attempt to find the best of their thinking, not the worst. There are other avenues for that.
The clock has started.
As we saw only a few nights ago, thousands turned out, spontaneously, in the dead of night, to Ground Zero to celebrate the news. A similar rally appeared at the White House. The sentiment was obvious at sporting events and in practically every urban center. These ad hoc gatherings eclipse the best turnout the Truth Movement ever achieved nationally after almost ten years of attempted rallies, no matter how long they planned, how nice the weather was, or what pseudo-celebrity appearances or other events they promised. In the face of this observation, there can be no argument that the Truthers are a tiny, literally negligible minority. In an unrelated irony, it also bears mention that Dr. Steven Jones, perhaps the closest the Truth Movement ever had to a legitimate scientist, continues to embarrass himself with reckless abandon at almost the same moment. These are blows from which the Truth Movement, if ever it was in fact a movement at all, cannot recover.
But is the Truth Movement really dead?
What do we mean by "dead," exactly? By the standard definition of life, I argued that it had expired over four years ago, and certainly it has produced nothing of note since that time. Similarly, long ago I tried to find the best figures among the Truth Movement, those most worthy of our attention, and found there were none. More recently -- three years ago -- I asked if anything new was taking place in the Truth Movement, and the answer was almost zero, certainly zero in the years since then.
On the other hand, do conspiracy theories actually die? One may argue that they do not -- the JFK and Moon Landing conspiracy believers, for instance, have accomplished nothing at all, yet there remain ineducable, insular communities of die-hard believers in these causes. Belief in all manner of Pearl Harbor conspiracies remains, and it goes without saying that Holocaust denial and even the infamous Protocols of the Elders of Zion still have many stubborn exponents. If one tried, one could probably find conspiracy theorists still grousing over the USS Maine, the Second Bank of the United States, or even the "real" killers of Julius Caesar. I won't even bring up biblical conspiracy theories.
By this standard, it is safe to assume that the Truth Movement, or Truthers at least, will never actually cease to exist. Achieving this goal is functionally similar to and no easier than completely stamping out illiteracy. One may as well throw in the towel, if this is where one draws the finish line.
A more prudent goal, I suggest, is this: To simply declare the Truth Movement "dead," or more accurately, negligible, when it can quantitatively and definitively be shown to be completely impotent. At this point, the more rational among us can safely disregard the Truth Movement, as the likelihood of it ever evolving, gaining influence, or producing anything worthy of scrutiny would be statistically unlikely. What we need, then, is a way to calculate this possibility.
---
Which brings me to the title: Lost in Space. One possible analogy to communication between Truthers and the rest of us is found in space exploration. Consider, for a moment, the Truth Movement as a deep space probe -- a little entity all to its own, far removed from the normal world, with remarkable instruments in its possession yet limited in processor power, capable of making discoveries and sending messages back home.
Sometimes, these craft fail to respond.
In spacecraft design we utilize a trick called the Command Loss Timer. This is a counter on board the spacecraft that can only be reset from the ground. Its purpose is as follows: The spacecraft is programmed to expect communications on a semi-regular basis. If no communication occurs over a long period of time, such that the Command Loss Timer ticks down to zero, then the spacecraft changes its behavior under the assumption that something must have failed -- either its antenna pointing is wrong, its steering has gone bad, its radio has failed, or what have you. When the Timer expires, the spacecraft automatically goes into a "Safe Mode" where it makes itself as easy to talk to as possible (pointing wide-angle Low Gain Antennae towards Earth, warming up all receivers, resetting computers and conserving power, etc.), and simply waits.
What I envision is something similar for the Truth Movement. Let's say we give it, oh, sixty days from right now to say something insightful. It could be anything. It could be a new result or uncovering new evidence. It could be a well-formed hypothesis. It could be acknowledgement of some established but long-resisted fact, demonstrating that the Truth Movement still has some capability to learn or reason. It could even be "Just Asking a Question," provided the question is well-considered and sparks some thought to answer. Any one of these, I'll give it my personal thumbs-up and reset the timer.
What I expect to find, however, is that there is truly nothing going on in the Truth Movement, it's all been said before, they're happy in their squalid little trench, and that the sixty days will expire without a single iota of progress. If this is the case, I trust you will agree that it's as dead as any "movement" could possibly be.
Shall we try it? If anyone, Truther or not, thinks she's spotted a sign of life, please post it up here -- a link, an original post, whatever. I am genuinely curious. And please, no bashing of anyone. This is an attempt to find the best of their thinking, not the worst. There are other avenues for that.
The clock has started.
