Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Brown.
Any guesses as to which way he [Justice Kennedy] might go?
I wish I had more time to go into some of the history, legal landscape and arguments associated with these disputes. Sadly, I just don't have the time right now. So what I'm going to say I will say some references but without as many as I'd like.
Basically, Justice Kennedy is looking for a way out. In the 2000
Stenberg case, Justice Kennedy strongly supported deference to the legislature (in this case, the Nebraska state legislature). "Courts are ill-equipped to evaluate the relative worth of particular surgical procedures," said Justice Kennedy. "The legislatures of the several States have superior factfinding capabilities in this regard." In general, the Supreme Court offers a degree of deference to the factfinding of Congress as well (such factfinding is sometimes charitably called "legislative factfinding").
What the U.S. Congress did in enacting its statute was to perform a whole bunch of legislative factfinding. There were several such legislative facts found, but perhaps the most pointed one is this: The Congress "found" that the procedure in question is "never necessary to preserve the health of a woman." Never.
In the lower courts, there was quite a bit of evidence indicating that some of the facts found by Congress were, shall we say, questionable.
In
Stenberg, the factual record had some holes in it, and even Justice Kennedy said as much, citing matters supported or unsupported by expert testimony in the lower courts. But in the pending cases, the factual record is, in the words of the Solicitor General, "more robust." Justice Stevens inquired several times into whether some of the legislatively found facts were really legitimate, in light of the evidence in the record. "General Clement," he asked the Solicitor General, "are not some of the findings by Congress clearly erroneous?"
Justice Breyer observed that there was evidence presented in court that Congress's factfinding was right, but there was also evidence presented that it was wrong. Justice Breyer wondered whether, if medical opinion is divided, whether this is really a matter where Congress or the courts ought to be taking inflexible sides.
This notion of having government substitute its judgment in a matter of legitimate medical debate--as supported by the evidentiary record--might be distasteful to Justice Kennedy. Yet in
Stenberg, Justice Kennedy asserted that having government making such a judgment is allowed, and quoted precedent saying that "disagreements among medical professionals 'do not tie the State's hands in setting the bounds of ... laws. In fact, it is precisely where such disagreement exists that legislatures have been afforded the widest latitude.'"
The Supreme Court is not a group of medical doctors. Justice Kennedy would almost certainly be quick to acknowledge that, although he has done considerable research about the procedures in question, he is far from qualified to be an expert on the subject. One has to wonder whether he would rule that the Court should simply pretend that Congress, which likewise is not a group of medical doctors and whose motivatations were dominated by
non-medical considerations, actually is in the best position to make such medical judgments. (See
Dahlia Lithwick's column for her take on this point.)
One "way out" for Justice Kennedy is to pursue differences in the evidence in the factual records of the present cases and in the factual record of the 2000 case. The majority in the
Stenberg case said:
The upshot is a District Court finding that D&X significantly obviates health risks in certain circumstances, a highly plausible record-based explanation of why that might be so, a division of opinion among some medical experts over whether D&X is generally safer, and an absence of controlled medical studies that would help answer these medical questions. Given these medically related evidentiary circumstances, we believe the law requires a health exception.
The "record" and "evidentiary circumstances" were crucial in
Stenberg, and they will probably be just as crucial in the two cases argued today. Justice Kennedy may have a basis for asserting that the record supports a health exception, and thus distinguish his 2000 dissent. This is the perhaps the best way out, and Justice Kennedy may very well take it.