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Tags health , life expectancy , politics and science

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Old 14th June 2022, 09:05 PM   #1
The Great Zaganza
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If you vote Republican you will die ... earlier

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0609173704.htm

There is an 11% difference in the decrease in mortality from 2001 to 2019 that is correlated with the voting record: counties that vote for Democrats have lowered their mortality rate more than Republican-voting ones.
And the effect is four times as large when you count only Whites.
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Old 14th June 2022, 09:34 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0609173704.htm

There is an 11% difference in the decrease in mortality from 2001 to 2019 that is correlated with the voting record: counties that vote for Democrats have lowered their mortality rate more than Republican-voting ones.
And the effect is four times as large when you count only Whites.
Looks pretty science-y to me, so I am voting Democrat and extending my life because that's how it works, right?
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Old 14th June 2022, 10:21 PM   #3
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Looks pretty science-y to me, so I am voting Democrat and extending my life because that's how it works, right?

How do you explain the statistical fact?


original article in BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2021-069308
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Old 14th June 2022, 10:37 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Looks pretty science-y to me, so I am voting Democrat and extending my life because that's how it works, right?
What is the point of writing something that you know isn't "how it works" and isn't said to be "how it works" by anybody, then following it with "that's how it works, right?"?
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Old 14th June 2022, 10:50 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
How do you explain the statistical fact?


original article in BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2021-069308
Supposedly whites have these terrible outcomes in GOP counties, but Blacks?

Quote:
However, black residents of Republican counties experienced an improvement in AAMR twice that of all other residents in Republican counties.
Interesting, no?
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Old 14th June 2022, 11:34 PM   #6
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I think it's interesting.

I have an idea why; what do you think is the reason?
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Old 15th June 2022, 12:18 AM   #7
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and say better health care availability since this covers the Obamacare years?
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Old 15th June 2022, 12:55 AM   #8
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say better health care availability since this covers the Obamacare years?
... and the willingness to make use of it.
1/3 of Covid deaths in the US are unvaccinated people after vaccination became widely available.
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Old 15th June 2022, 06:08 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Looks pretty science-y to me, so I am voting Democrat and extending my life because that's how it works, right?
Did you even bother reading the article? The point, which seems to have gone over your head, is that in counties which voted Democratic, mortality rates dropped more than in counties that voted Republican:

Quote:
The team found that mortality rates decreased by 22 percent in Democratic counties but by only 11 percent in Republican counties. The mortality gap rose across top disease areas, including heart disease and cancer, and the mortality gap between white residents in Democratic versus Republican counties increased nearly fourfold during the study period. Results are published in the British Medical Journal.
The study does NOT suggest that voting Democratic extends your life.

Quote:
The authors note that the widening gap in death rates may reflect the influence of politics on health policies. One of the inflection points detected in the study corresponds to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was passed in 2010. More Democratic states than Republican states adopted Medicaid expansion under the ACA, which expanded health insurance coverage to people on a low income.

The study detects an association between political environment and mortality but does not definitively determine the direction of the association or the specific factors that may explain the link between the two. The authors did not study the effect of flipping political environments -- that is, counties that switched from voting Democratic or Republican to voting for the other party -- on health outcomes, which could be an area of future study. The study period ended in 2019, before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have had an even more profound impact on the mortality gap.

"Our study suggests that the mortality gap is a modern phenomenon, not an inevitability," said Warraich. "At the start of our study, we saw little difference in mortality rates in Democratic and Republican counties. We hope that our findings will open people's eyes and show the real effect that politics and health policy can have on people's lives."
So perhaps there are real-life consequences associated with voting for a party that actively tries to damage public health resources.
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Old 15th June 2022, 06:18 AM   #10
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"5,786th study proves that stupidity is a transferable quality"

People who are stupid make bad political decisions and bad health decisions.

I cannot fathom what the mystery here is supposed to be.

Yes not getting a life saving vaccine during a global pandemic to "tweak the libs" is gonna take some years off, water is also wet and fire is also hot.

Why are we also shocked when stupid people make stupid decisions?
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Old 15th June 2022, 06:55 AM   #11
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Wait until they get the data set that starts in 2020…
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Old 15th June 2022, 07:02 AM   #12
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If the thread title is true, I am voting twice in order to defy the odds in magnificent fashion.
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Old 15th June 2022, 07:22 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
If the thread title is true, I am voting twice in order to defy the odds in magnificent fashion.
If the thread title is true, I would encourage you to vote 100 times, but that would be illegal.
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Old 15th June 2022, 07:55 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
If the thread title is true, I am voting twice in order to defy the odds in magnificent fashion.
That's pretty meta, dude. Like, here we are talking about stupid Republican beliefs that harm their consituents and you pop in making a joke about doing something that stupid Republicans believe happens all the time that will actually harm you for trying. Well done, bravo, here's another example of stupid Republican beliefs that will harm the stupid Republicans who fall for them!
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Old 15th June 2022, 05:10 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Did you even bother reading the article? The point, which seems to have gone over your head, is that in counties which voted Democratic, mortality rates dropped more than in counties that voted Republican:
So I have to convince my county to vote Democrat to extend my lifespan?
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Old 15th June 2022, 05:31 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So I have to convince my county to vote Democrat to extend my lifespan?
Stop being obtuse, you know what the study really suggests: That Democrats care about people's health, and Republicans don't give a **** whether people live or die.
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Old 15th June 2022, 05:57 PM   #17
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Lies, damn lies, & Democrat stats!

Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So I have to convince my county to vote Democrat to extend my lifespan?
Okay, Killery, 'scuse me, brainstir, tell us what's the really true truth about it all and everything.
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Old 15th June 2022, 06:05 PM   #18
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You wish that some red/Republican/conservative -- whatever you want to call them -- would just once man up and write something like:

Making health care costs at least in part taxpayer-supported is in my opinion, bad policy. Your health, your life, you get what you pay for. Don't ask me to help you. Does this translate into a reduced life span for people of a certain income level? Sadly, it can. But that's the way life works. They don't drive a new Audi, either

But they never do. Instead this kind of discussion always goes around in circles.
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Old 15th June 2022, 06:10 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So I have to convince my county to vote Democrat to extend my lifespan?
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Old 15th June 2022, 07:09 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say better health care availability since this covers the Obamacare years?
I was rather surprised to see that most of the change occurred during the Bush years. The trend continued at a lower rate after 2009. The AHCA didn't seem to make as much difference as I expected.

The year by year graphs are interesting. May be related to the long term trend where R's and D's have flipped places in terms of average education and I think that correlates a bit with mortality.
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Old 15th June 2022, 07:27 PM   #21
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Quote:
Making health care costs at least in part taxpayer-supported is in my opinion, bad policy. Your health, your life, you get what you pay for. Don't ask me to help you. Does this translate into a reduced life span for people of a certain income level? Sadly, it can. But that's the way life works. They don't drive a new Audi, either

I like the sounds of that. This level of honesty would be refreshing! We never see such truth in politics, sadly.

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Old 15th June 2022, 11:14 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Stop being obtuse, you know what the study really suggests: That Democrats care about people's health, and Republicans don't give a **** whether people live or die.
And this plays out at the county level and only affects white people. Totally seems credible to me.
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Old 15th June 2022, 11:40 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
And this plays out at the county level and only affects white people. Totally seems credible to me.
Not what the article says.

I understand this need to dismiss the findings to save your worldview, but facts are facts.
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Old 16th June 2022, 10:03 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Not what the article says.

I understand this need to dismiss the findings to save your worldview, but facts are facts.
I guess I'm confused because the OP title says "If you vote Republican you will die... earlier." Have you backed away from that particular bit of misinformation? Maybe you could get the mods to change the title of the thread so you aren't deceiving people?
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Old 16th June 2022, 10:14 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I guess I'm confused because the OP title says "If you vote Republican you will die... earlier." Have you backed away from that particular bit of misinformation? Maybe you could get the mods to change the title of the thread so you aren't deceiving people?
Because conservatives simply will not stand for misinformation and deception!

Brainster, I salute you in your noble effort to speak truth to power regarding the Very Important Issue of the journalistic integrity of forum thread titles.
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Old 16th June 2022, 10:15 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I guess I'm confused because the OP title says "If you vote Republican you will die... earlier." Have you backed away from that particular bit of misinformation? Maybe you could get the mods to change the title of the thread so you aren't deceiving people?
psst, buddy, did you know that "you" can be plural?
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Old 16th June 2022, 11:05 AM   #27
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So, I may have missed it but does this study account for things like educational attainment and socio economic status? The Dems are the party of elites, who do tend to also have better health outcomes.
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Old 16th June 2022, 11:08 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
So, I may have missed it but does this study account for things like educational attainment and socio economic status? The Dems are the party of elites, who do tend to also have better health outcomes.
Um no generally lower income voters vote democrat. They are not the party of the elite except in republican rhetoric. I think there might be an effect of the rural/urban divide here
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Old 16th June 2022, 11:20 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
So, I may have missed it but does this study account for things like educational attainment and socio economic status? The Dems are the party of elites, who do tend to also have better health outcomes.
Yes, the political party that wants to provide those "better health outcomes" to everybody is somehow the party of "elites".
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:11 PM   #30
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I wrote a message about how these kinds of threads never develop into real discussion. That just once I wish one of the posters here -- one of the posters, not a politician -- would take a deep breathe and write, 'Here's what I think.' I suggested it would be along the lines of-
Quote:
Making health care costs at least in part taxpayer-supported is in my opinion, bad policy. Your health, your life, you get what you pay for. Don't ask me to help you. Does this translate into a reduced life span for people of a certain income level? Sadly, it can. But that's the way life works. They don't drive a new Audi, either.
Here's what I got which, ironically, makes my point-
Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
I like the sounds of that. This level of honesty would be refreshing! We never see such truth in politics, sadly.
We never see such truth in one of the debates on this message board either. This level of honesty would be refreshing from the -- I don't know what to call them, Republicans, conservatives, their political orientation is apparently secret, too -- lets say 'the other side.' They snipe and snark but never present a clear argument.

They never explain their thinking. As I've stated previously, I think in part that's because there is no thinking. It's just pure reaction.
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:18 PM   #31
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
So, I may have missed it but does this study account for things like educational attainment and socio economic status? The Dems are the party of elites, who do tend to also have better health outcomes.
I tries to account for certain factors, like age.
But it probably can't account for anything.

But that doesn't really affect the change over time, which shows a significantly lower decrease in mortality in Red Counties compared to Blue ones.

I guess with Abortion getting banned, that gap will widen.
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:18 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
I wrote a message about how these kinds of threads never develop into real discussion. That just once I wish one of the posters here -- one of the posters, not a politician -- would take a deep breathe and write, 'Here's what I think.' I suggested it would be along the lines of-

Unfortunately you didn't articulate your wish very clearly:

Quote:
You wish that some red/Republican/conservative -- whatever you want to call them -- would just once man up and write something like:

Nowhere does it say "forum member opinions". It seemed to me as though it was alluding to Republican policy makers being less than forthright about their agenda.
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:23 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
Unfortunately you didn't articulate your wish very clearly:




Nowhere does it say "forum member opinions". It seemed to me as though it was alluding to Republican policy makers being less than forthright about their agenda.
I suppose if you think the Republican policy makers are here in the forum, your confusion would make sense. I mean "these discussions" and "write"....yeah, because the averade Republican policy maker prefers the written word over Fox soundbites, right?
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:24 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
I suppose if you think the Republican policy makers are here in the forum, your confusion would make sense. I mean "these discussions" and "write"....yeah, because the averade Republican policy maker prefers the written word over Fox soundbites, right?

Exactly.
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:40 PM   #35
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A: "Your weasel worded attempt to claim 'Oh, I thought you were talking about Congesspeople when you complained about how conservative posters aren't honest about their agenda' isn't convincing for these reasons"

B: "Exactly'"

huh, there's something you don't see everyday.
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:44 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by sackett View Post
Okay, Killery, 'scuse me, brainstir, tell us what's the really true truth about it all and everything.
Context is everything. The message I wrote followed the above and was in reply. This was the last line of that message.
Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
...But they never do. Instead this kind of discussion always goes around in circles.
Which is what 'someone' is doing now.
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Old 16th June 2022, 12:54 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
I wrote a message about how these kinds of threads never develop into real discussion. That just once I wish one of the posters here -- one of the posters, not a politician -- would take a deep breathe and write, 'Here's what I think.' I suggested it would be along the lines of-


Here's what I got which, ironically, makes my point-


We never see such truth in one of the debates on this message board either. This level of honesty would be refreshing from the -- I don't know what to call them, Republicans, conservatives, their political orientation is apparently secret, too -- lets say 'the other side.' They snipe and snark but never present a clear argument.
Because the purpose of these threads is not to analyze things but to dunk on the opposition. I get it, it's fun when some study supposedly proves your side right and the other side wrong.

Here's part of the study that raised my eyebrows:

Quote:
Overall, the team found that mortality rates in Democratic counties dropped from 850 deaths per 100,000 people to 664 (22 percent), but in Republican counties, mortality rates declined from 867 to 771 (11 percent). When the team analyzed by race, they found that there was little gap between the improvements in mortality rates that Black and Hispanic Americans experienced in Democratic and Republican counties. But among white Americans, the gap between people living in Democratic versus Republican counties was substantial.
When it comes to "why:

Quote:
The authors note that the widening gap in death rates may reflect the influence of politics on health policies. One of the inflection points detected in the study corresponds to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was passed in 2010. More Democratic states than Republican states adopted Medicaid expansion under the ACA, which expanded health insurance coverage to people on a low income.
See the issue? If your explanation is that some states went all-in on ACA and some didn't then why are you analyzing voting at the county level? Did Republican counties in New York opt out? The mismatch makes me suspect that the results were not nearly as interesting.
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Old 16th June 2022, 01:02 PM   #38
johnny karate
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
When it comes to "why:

Quote:
The authors note that the widening gap in death rates may reflect the influence of politics on health policies. One of the inflection points detected in the study corresponds to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was passed in 2010. More Democratic states than Republican states adopted Medicaid expansion under the ACA, which expanded health insurance coverage to people on a low income.
See the issue? If your explanation is that some states went all-in on ACA and some didn't then why are you analyzing voting at the county level? Did Republican counties in New York opt out? The mismatch makes me suspect that the results were not nearly as interesting.

Here, let me help you with that:
Quote:
The authors note that the widening gap in death rates may reflect the influence of politics on health policies. One of the inflection points detected in the study corresponds to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was passed in 2010. More Democratic states than Republican states adopted Medicaid expansion under the ACA, which expanded health insurance coverage to people on a low income.
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Old 16th June 2022, 01:54 PM   #39
marting
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
So, I may have missed it but does this study account for things like educational attainment and socio economic status? The Dems are the party of elites, who do tend to also have better health outcomes.
The study doesn't address that directly but many surveys have noted a large shift over the last half century in education v party affiliation.

Quote:
In contrast, college graduates went from majority Republican in 1994 (50% Republican versus 42% Democratic) to majority Democratic in 2019 (57% of Democrats versus 37% of Republicans).
Article referencing a Pew survey:
https://www.courthousenews.com/ameri...and-education/
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Old 16th June 2022, 01:58 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
I wrote a message about how these kinds of threads never develop into real discussion. That just once I wish one of the posters here -- one of the posters, not a politician -- would take a deep breathe and write, 'Here's what I think.' I suggested it would be along the lines of-

Making health care costs at least in part taxpayer-supported is in my opinion, bad policy. Your health, your life, you get what you pay for. Don't ask me to help you. Does this translate into a reduced life span for people of a certain income level? Sadly, it can. But that's the way life works. They don't drive a new Audi, either.

Here's what I got which, ironically, makes my point-


We never see such truth in one of the debates on this message board either. This level of honesty would be refreshing from the -- I don't know what to call them, Republicans, conservatives, their political orientation is apparently secret, too -- lets say 'the other side.' They snipe and snark but never present a clear argument.

They never explain their thinking. As I've stated previously, I think in part that's because there is no thinking. It's just pure reaction.

Maybe this what you are asking for? I really don't know. I consider myself a conservative. I would usually just sit out an election rather than vote for a Dem at this point.

I think there is a misconception that all people are obligated to care about the healthcare of the poor. Personally, I don't really care too much. I don't even care if they die a little bit sooner, tbh. I have good healthcare, and I am not poor. My medical insurance is mostly covered by work.

But taxes?" Yeah, I feel that directly. Now, if there is a way that me paying more taxes for healthcare of the poor will lead to me paying less taxes overall, that sounds great. I am not overly passionate about it, though...except I would prefer paying less taxes. I am not going to vote against someone strictly because they support government subsidy, unless it has a significant detrimental impact to my take home pay.

Last edited by Warp12; 16th June 2022 at 02:26 PM.
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