Can we control the temperature of Earth?
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macdoc
Philosopher
no
we WERE drifting into the orbital configuration for the next ice age..
thanks to anthro activities that has been delayed or cancelled.
We a re technically in the Holocene
but there is some thought of a new epoch starting some 300 years ago as the Anthropocene.
we WERE drifting into the orbital configuration for the next ice age..
thanks to anthro activities that has been delayed or cancelled.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070829193436.htm
We a re technically in the Holocene
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene
but there is some thought of a new epoch starting some 300 years ago as the Anthropocene.
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Anthropocene
Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
That is correct. To be more exact we are in an interglacial period (the Holocene) within the current ice age.
Bjarne
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The dynamo theory is nothing but speculation, in no way proven.
First at you should anyway be able to find the magnetic South Pole at the Sun “somewhere”, - you cannot , and this is a problem if you believe an electromagnetic field is the cause of the MF of the Sun.
Furthermore, what about the mysterious quite magnetic period of the Sun, - if the dynamo is rotation driven, such should deliver a stable result, and not repeat so predictable unstable result.
We have no idea of what is causing these quite predictable magnetic periods either.
The existing speculation is only guessing, impossible properly to experiential prove,- even this have been tried.
Shpae ?- what do you mean ?
HA HA HA
RC you are soooooo funny..............
This is MY theory I cite,
NOBODY, - also not Henrik Svensmark have ever before try to explain that.
RC…This (again) REALLY demonstrate how superficial and ignorant your “”knowledge” is.
http://www.science27.com/Earth/index.htm
RC, can’t you really not see it ?
You cannot predict ANYTHING based on the Milankovitch Cycle.
It would be the same as I tell you I have a very good idea how the solar system works, and my prediction is that the next winter on Earth maybe will take place before 3625 years.
NOTHING shows such strange speculation could be the correct framéwork,- not one single sign on the sky shows so.... Amen.
What particles does above the South Atlantic Anomaly, is not the cause of the mystery, but only an effect of it.
How ignorant is it possible to be ?
If that should be true, the temperature of the Earth should had decreased the last 2500 years since the MF of the Earth in that period have been constantly decreasing in that period. This is NOT what we have seen.
According to Henrik Svensmark theory it is the MF of the Sunthat reject the cosmic rays.
The cause and effect is therefore
- The Sun’s MF get weaker
- More cosmic rays enter the Solar systems
- Temperature on the Earth is decreasing (due to a weaker MF of the Sun)
And very strange simultaneously with that the MF on Earth does also decrease, but WHY ?
So the question is: why does the Earth MF decrease simultaneously (a little later) with the Sun’s MF?
It is easy to understand that; a weak MF of the Sun’s is causing more cosmic rays (to penetrate), - and hence more clouds on the Earth, and therefore that the Suns MF is responsible for the temperature on the Earth..
(red curve is the Earth's MF)
So why is the Earth's MF also decreasing together with the temperature decrease on Earth?
This is only possible to explain based on that the Sun's MF is the true magnetic dynamo of the Earth’s MF.
And excactly therefore 99,99999999% of all the cows in the world reject the >inner dynamo religion. This speculation is NOT necessary. The Sun's MF obviouly seems to handle the Earth's MF too without the inner dynamo speculation.
The Sun's MF is the only true dynamo (of the Earth's MF) = cow logic.
Obviously there is:
1.) Ice land
2.) Greenland
3.) Arctic ocean
4.) In many continental depression (heat flow is larger = magnetic anomalies)
5.) At the South Pole
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Complexity
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Bjarne - You amuse but you do not persuade.
Doesn't this get old after a while?
Doesn't this get old after a while?
Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
Yet another fundamentally flawed idea from Bjarne
Yet another fundamentally flawed idea from Bjarne
HA HA HA
Bjarne your fantasy is soooooo wrong..............
Yet another fundamentally flawed idea from Bjarne
That is so dumb Bjarne.
- It is a cycle so you can predict things.
- I never stated that the Milankovitch Cycle has anythoing to do with the predictions (it is one of the factors considered though)
What particles does above the South Atlantic Anomaly, is the cause of the mystery, the South Atlantic Anomaly only an effect of it.
How ignorant is it possible to be ?
See Bjarne - I can parrot you and be just as right
!Wrong and ignorant.
The temperature of the Earth is due to many factors one of which I mention (clouds). Greenhouse gases are a much bigger factor in determining temperature.
Henrik Svensmark theory it is the MF
According to Henrik Svensmark theory it is the MF of the Sun that mostly rejects the cosmic rays, especially in the short term. The Earth's MF also rejects cosmic rays. The position of the Solar System in the galactic MF also affects cosmic rays.
- The tempertaure of the Earth is measured to be increasing.
- and the effect is no longer caused!
Could cosmic rays be causing global warming?
- Krivova 2003 and Lockwood 2007 show that "the trend in cosmic radiation is opposite to that required to cause warming".
- Laut 2003 showed that low cloud cover actually preceded cosmic ray flus increased by about six months. So low clouds "caused" cosmic rays
!
Citation please.
IMO all magnetic fields according to dynamo theory should decrease over the long term as the fluids involved cool down. Thanks for pointing put another correct prediciton of dynamo theory Bjarne.
The real question is: Why does the Earth's MF not vanish when the Sun's does when according to your fantasy (see Yet another fundamentally flawed idea from Bjarne) "Sun's MF is the true magnetic dynamo of the Earth’s MF"?
Yet another fundamentally flawed idea from Bjarne
bit_pattern
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Kind of, but that's like saying we've been technically in an ice age for the last however many millions of years, because we're currently at the height of an interglacial period which is as warm as it gets, so if we're technically still in an ice age then we have been so for along, long time now.
macdoc
Philosopher
Actually the holocene optimum was quite a while back and we WERE drifting to a cooler climate regime up to about 300 years ago.
Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
Bjarne,
I have been telling you about the dynamo model for some months now and for some reason you seem to be persisting in thinking that it only produces constant dipole magnetic fields.
It is almost as if you think that the "dynamo" part of the theory is like the magnets in a electrical generator.
This post is probably going to be ignored as usual but here goes...
In actual fact the dynamo theory predicts multi-pole, variable magnetic fields. The description of this is found in many textbooks - I am going by 20 year old memories! so do not trust me - read it for yourself, e.g. try Merrill, R.T., McElhinny, M.W., and McFadden, P.L. (1996) The Magnetic Field of the Earth, Academic Press.
However there is a good description of the basics in a PDF available on the web: Dynamo Theory and Earth's Magnetic Field
If you look around the web then there are other bits of dynamo theory.
The PDF gives examples of "toy" models that show properties of dynamo systems that are simpler to handle than the more complex full theory.
I have been telling you about the dynamo model for some months now and for some reason you seem to be persisting in thinking that it only produces constant dipole magnetic fields.
It is almost as if you think that the "dynamo" part of the theory is like the magnets in a electrical generator.
This post is probably going to be ignored as usual but here goes...
In actual fact the dynamo theory predicts multi-pole, variable magnetic fields. The description of this is found in many textbooks - I am going by 20 year old memories! so do not trust me - read it for yourself, e.g. try Merrill, R.T., McElhinny, M.W., and McFadden, P.L. (1996) The Magnetic Field of the Earth, Academic Press.
However there is a good description of the basics in a PDF available on the web: Dynamo Theory and Earth's Magnetic Field
If you look around the web then there are other bits of dynamo theory.
The PDF gives examples of "toy" models that show properties of dynamo systems that are simpler to handle than the more complex full theory.
- A single spinning metallic disk is used to show basic equations.
- The kinematic dynamic theory is introduced where there is a rotating conductive fluid and a couple of limits discussed.
- The more physical (but still a toy) two-disk model is discussed. This is where polarity flipping appears.
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Trakar
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This is accurate, though many experts and mainstream science sources display great ambiguity in the usage of the term "ice age" often terming advancing glaciation during the respites (interglacials) as seperate "ice ages." If I'm not mistaken there have only been a few actual ice ages (periods where polar icecaps and mountain-range glaciers and ice-fields persist year-round), the current one started a couple million years ago, and may be being brought to a close, even though current milankovich cycle trends indicate that we should (for the last few thousand years) be gradually cooling off and headed toward expanding polar ice-caps and advancing ice sheets.
Bjarne
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Liar, ignorant or just dump.
Crap from A to Z
We don’t know
Properly (and hopefully) right, but there is nothing that support WHY the Earth MF variation is connected to the Earth temperature variation.
Hence still there is a HUGE problem that can’t be connected to the geodynamo religion:
We DO NOT understand why the temperature variation of the Earth and the MF variation of the Earths is connected.
Right, - now the Sun’s MF is suddenly weak, this summer is hot on the northern hemisphere, and this winter was very cold on the northern hemisphere.
WHY ?
So actually both could be true:
1.) That a cold period starts now, due to the Sun’s weak MF mainly affetcs the northern hemisphere in wintertime.
2.) That global warming also is true, but only affetcs the northern hemisphere in the Summertime.
But we know far from enough to say something for sure. Because we can NOT see the complete picture........
EXCACTLY, the dynamo speculation does not fit to the fact that:
- the Earth's MF variation and the Earth's temperaturevariation are connected .
We MUST ask why, and you MUST keep asking why.
THIS is a BROAD HINT that tells you that you CANNOT in no possible way ADAPT the geodynamo with the Earth's temperature and hence also not with the MF of the Earth.
You can not say that the temperature variation of the Earth is responsible for the for MF of the Earth. You can also not show how the MF of the Earth is responsible for the temperature variation. A geodynamo can NOT COMPREHEND SUCH HUGE "CONTRADICTION".
*********** THERE ARE NO CONNECTION. ***********
So it really doesn’t matter how Super turbo good the geodynamo is (on the paper).
BUT - the Sun's MF variation can easy explain and comprehend BOTH the MF variation as well as the temperature variation
The true dynamo ot the Earth's MF is = > the Sun’s MF.
It is written in crystal clear 82.000 years Magnetic / temperature history of the Earth, - only idiots and sissy-scientist close their eyes for such HUGE FACTS.
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Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
Crap from A to Z
We do know.
Hence still there is a HUGE problem that can’t be connected to the Bjarne religion:
We DO NOT understand why the temperature variation of the Earth and the MF variation of the Earths is connected.
Citation please.
EXACTLY, the dynamo theory is about the origin Earth's magnetic field and nothing to do with climate science.
We MUST NOT ask why that dynamo theory explains something it is not meant to explain, and you MUST NOT keep asking why.
We may as well ask why the theory of evolution does not explain the connections.
That is right: THERE IS NO CONNECTION
Only an totally ignorant preson would expect the dynamo theory (about MFs) to explain temperatures.
The dynamo theory is good on paper and matches observations.
BUT - the Sun's MF variation can easy explain a part of the temperature variation (but not current global warming).
The Sun's MF does not cause any of the "variation" (e.g. polarity reversal) of the Earth's MF
The true dynamo is the Earth's core, - it is written in crystal clear in the physical measurements of the Earth, - only idiots and sissy-cranks close their eyes for such HUGE FACTS.
- The magnetic poles have been measured to be ~5000 kilometers below the surface of the Earth.
This has been known for 172 years ! - The solar wind does not change the overall strength of the Earth's MF at any time.
It has even stopped without any effects on the MF.
AFAIK The strength of the MF does not vary as the Magnetic North Pole moves around the Artic Ocean nor with the strength of the solar wind as it is in the "central Artic ocean". But I am sure Bjarne can correct me with many scientific papers showing just that . - Crustal magnetism is < 2% of the Earth's magnetism!
Bjarne, if you have sources that contradict this please cite them.
A deafening silence so far !
Rocks aren't strongly enough magnetized to account for the observed geomagnetic field
First posted 16 February 2010
Bjarne
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Now, - just agree that scientist do not agree how to understand how much CO2 will cause temperature rise, OK ? – That’s the point.
(please google translate from danish)
http://videnskab.dk/composite-2572.htm
And since it is a fact that: the Earth MF and Temperature variations here on the planet, - are connected, and also a fact the inner dynamo NOT can explain how this is possible, - something is serious wrong with our understanding.
You cannot possible get a bigger red blinking lamp than this correlations.
And even so, - YOU (and many more) are ignoring this, as well as the fact that the Sun’s MF theoretical easy could be suspected for being a common denominator that simple and easy could comprehend the cause of both these variations.
Never say never.
The sun does have plenty of secret we far from fully have understood.
I am not denying we have a role in global warming, but I am just leading the attention to the fact that
- We do not understand the natural temperature variation,
- And we do certainly also not understand how much we are to blame.
There is a lot more work to be done, before we just have a fairly good picture.
And last and not least, - the biggest problem that overshadows it all, and certainly prevents us to get a much better understanding, - is the silly completely unnecessary incoherent inner dynamo religion.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wonder if cosmic rays more easily can penetrate the Earth magnetic field, either if the Suns MF is aligned or opposite aligned with the Earth MF.
I think it could be a big difference, and maybe the last pieces for Svendsmark theory.
Already he have shown that there very often is completely parallel curves between the Sun’s MF and temperatures on Earth.
But suddenly there are periods that don’t want to fit in.
Any comments regarding this are appreciated.
For example energy and particles ability to penetrate to the Earth MF are very much depending on MF that alignment of the Sun and Earth.
BUT what about Cosmic Rays. ???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxWBlJ1kB7Q
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Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
Scientists do agree how to understand how much CO2 will cause temperature rise, OK ? – That’s the point.
This news article is
- A year old - the Sun has resumed its normal sunspot activity which means a normal magnetic field according to the article.
- It reveals a profound misunderstanding of the scientific evidence that the sun's activity has little impact on the current global temperatures.
Only an idiot would think that the inner dynamo explainsthe Earth's temperature variations. It explains the origins of the MF.
The variations of the MF then have an influence on the historical climate but not the modern climate which is dominated by CO2 increases.
I am just just leading the attention to the fact that
- We do have a good understanding of the natural temperature variation.
- And we do certainly understand a lot of how much we are to blame.
And last and not least, - the biggest problem that overshadows it all is your refusal to learn about the dynamo theory and that is actually works!
As for Svendsmark theory:
He showed that there is no "completely parallel curves between the Sun’s MF and temperatures on Earth". What he showed is that there is a historical correlation between
ETA
Added the actual correlation: solar activity is not the same as the MF though I think there is a relationship.
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Bjarne
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Scientists do agree how to understand how much CO2 will cause temperature rise, OK ? – That’s the point.
Crap, we don’t know exactly and there are MANY professional skeptical that doesn’t agree. You KNOW that RC, every child does. – So please stop this crap.
This news article is
1. A year old - the Sun has resumed its normal sunspot activity which means a normal magnetic field according to the article.
2. It reveals a profound misunderstanding of the scientific evidence that the sun's activity has little impact on the current global temperatures.
It shows that the Sun Periods is changing now. This could be a sign of general decreasing activity for a long term period.
The reason to the majority believes as they do is not due to objective knowledge, but rather mass emotions.
5 Years ago also the Danish prime minster did not believe we were much to blame. Then he change his mind.
But the last 5 years have not brought any new knowledge, all what have happen is that the mass emotion have take over, and now it is no longer popular, - to be against. This is then suddenly a "political problem" that can cause lose of electors. Se now we do no longer ONLY speak about science but a strange cocktail of science + strange politic + mass emotions.
If you really believe it all is so simple,- tell us now WHY was the winter everywhere on the northern hemisphere so cold this year. – How will it be next winter SIR ?
Crap, we don’t know exactly and there are MANY professional skeptical that doesn’t agree. You KNOW that RC, every child does. – So please stop this crap.
This news article is
1. A year old - the Sun has resumed its normal sunspot activity which means a normal magnetic field according to the article.
2. It reveals a profound misunderstanding of the scientific evidence that the sun's activity has little impact on the current global temperatures.
It shows that the Sun Periods is changing now. This could be a sign of general decreasing activity for a long term period.
Completely crap.
- If your point 1 was true you could easy predict the next ice age.
- Every child older than 9 knows that scientist does not agree according to how much we really are to blame for the last 100 years clime change. One of these are Henrik Svenmark.
The reason to the majority believes as they do is not due to objective knowledge, but rather mass emotions.
5 Years ago also the Danish prime minster did not believe we were much to blame. Then he change his mind.
But the last 5 years have not brought any new knowledge, all what have happen is that the mass emotion have take over, and now it is no longer popular, - to be against. This is then suddenly a "political problem" that can cause lose of electors. Se now we do no longer ONLY speak about science but a strange cocktail of science + strange politic + mass emotions.
If you really believe it all is so simple,- tell us now WHY was the winter everywhere on the northern hemisphere so cold this year. – How will it be next winter SIR ?
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
Only the middle latitudes were colder than usual, the latitudes either side (e.g. Canada, the Arctic, the southern Med) were actually warmer than usual. The reason was the Arctic Oscillation. This information is readily available to anyone who bothers to look for it.
Reality Check
Penultimate Amazing
Crap, we don’t know exactly - we know approximately. And there MANY professional skeptical that doesn’t agree and no one cares about "skeptical ".
There are MANY, MANY professional climate scientists that know the measurements of CO2 increases correlates with temperature rise.
What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Answer: Over 97% of actively publishing climate scientists think that humans are causing global warming.
N.B. A consensus for or against a scientific theory does not mean that the theory is right. What it means is that the existing evidence is strong enought to convince the experts.
You KNOW that Bjarne, every child does. – So please stop this crap.
Completely crap.
- We do have a good understanding of the natural temperature variation, especially in modern times. That has no impact on the ability to predict the next ice age.
However scientists can and have predicted the next ice age. - Every child older than 9 knows that 97% of actively published climate scientists do agree that humans are causing global warming. This means that for every 1 scientist you cite there are 32 others who disagree.
dafydd
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Fixed that for you,we must have accuracy in these matters,mother cow says so.
MRC_Hans
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This is actually Bjarne's basic problem: He is almost (must leave benefit of doubt) totally ignorant of all things scientific. By his own admission, he can't even do proper math.
He then assumes that the rest of the world is equally ignorant. Add to this a kumaresque conviction that as long as science cannot provide a final and absolute answer, anything is possible.
Oh, well, we could just stop feeding him...
Hans
dafydd
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This is actually Bjarne's basic problem: He is almost (must leave benefit of doubt) totally ignorant of all things scientific. By his own admission, he can't even do proper math.
He then assumes that the rest of the world is equally ignorant. Add to this a kumaresque conviction that as long as science cannot provide a final and absolute answer, anything is possible.
Oh, well, we could just stop feeding him...
Hans
It is pointless presenting him with facts.