Global warming discussion III

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It's pretty easy to debunk nonsense, and counter lies and false statements online. Not that the facts will sway anyone, but it is easy.
DC said:
when you brought up colder winters, you said just winter, not NH winters nor Boreal winters, then it was pointed out to you that your own sources did not support the claim that Winters are becoming colder, but Boreal winters.
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Completely false of course, but at least we got to laugh at your lack of understanding in regards to the term "boreal", in regards to winter.

10:03 AM I pointed out the winters.
16th March 2013, 10:03 AM
r-j said:
Winters have been getting colder. If this had been predicted as part of global warming, we would be hearing about how cold it's been, and crying over global warming.
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16th March 2013, 12:06 PM I quotes and linked to articles based on several studies about this, including of course, Cohen et al 2012
r-j said:
macdoc said:
tell me again that winters have been getting colder.
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For most scientists his reasoning doesn't add up, but Boris did get one thing right: winters are getting colder.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2013/feb/01/weatherwatch-boris-johnson-cold-winter
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As global temperatures rise, a new study indicates that winters in the northern hemisphere are set to get colder and snowier. Data from the last two decades suggests that this colder trend is already under way. Indeed the chilly winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 caused many to question whether global warming was happening at all.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2012/jan/22/weatherwatch-global-warming-climate-change
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The world is getting warmer, which should mean warmer winters - right? Wrong - a new study shows that global warming produces colder winters and heavier dumps of snow for large swathes of the northern hemisphere
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48293
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The world is warming, so why have winters been getting colder across much of Eurasia?
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135
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See? Now, after we all get over the shock, we can start complaining about global warming while we are buried in snow.
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16th March 2013, 12:12 PM I quoted even more sources, which introduced all the issues we are still discussing, and of course, Cohen et al 2012 yet again.
r-j said:
"Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005-2006 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it," explained Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study and a physicist at the Potsdam Institute.

"These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and north Asia," he said.
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http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

Clearly cold winters are the next horror that global warming will bring upon us. Warming causes cooling!

That line of reasoning would help explain why the Northern Hemisphere has seen a trend of more extreme winter weather — both bitter cold spells and heavy snows — since around 1988, the researchers say.

“(E)vidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover,” they write in an article published in Environmental Research Letters. And that, they continue, “dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling.”

There you go: warming causes cooling.
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http://www.greenbang.com/global-warming-might-cause-colder-winters-more-snow_21263.html
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So of course you are just making things up again. This is obvious.
DC said:
and you kept repeating for a while that winters became colder. and only later you started to add boreal or NH some times.
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No, the very first time I mentioned the winters, I followed up with sourced posts, which included the term "boreal winters", which means in this regard, the NH winters. Got that? Boreal winter means Northern Hemisphere winter.

On March 19 2013 I expanded and added more sources. Including a detailed explanation of the mechanism Cohen et al proposed to explain that the colder winters might be due to warming.
r-j said:
That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think.
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http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html
Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia

The world is warming, so why have winters been getting colder across much of Eurasia?
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http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135
Cold Winters Driven By Global Warming
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http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm
Cold Winters Caused by Warmer Summers, Research Suggests
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http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9084487#post9084487
Warmer summers cause colder winters, scientists say
Looking temperature and snow and ice data, researchers found that higher summer temperatures in the Arctic meant more moisture in the air, leading to more snowfall.
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http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/cl...r-summers-cause-colder-winters-scientists-say

More snow, especially early in the fall, has a feedback effect where the white snow reflects the sun, causing faster cooling, which leads to more snow, and the snow doesn't melt, so we get this amplification and it gets colder.

Colder, not warmer. And it is the warmer summers, and declining sea ice that may be causing the early snow.

So global warming has been making the winters colder (a clear trend), especially in February, which shows the most drastic decline of average temperatures. While this was obviously missed by almost every climate expert, a few have been predicting this. For decades.

Now that everybody knows it's happening, the climate experts are now switching, and publishing about how global warming is causing colder winters.

The sad thing is how this is being used to say all climate predictions mean nothing, when in fact it is how science advances. Once you know your theory is wrong, you change it.

That is science. Not denial of what is being observed.
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I further expanded this on 2013 March 25, which is what makes your narrative such an obvious deception.
r-j said:
The NCDC data clearly shows what is happening, and isn't even disputed by most, no matter what their leaning is. (and since when does what you believe change the temperature data? absurd in the extreme)

Here's a look at both sides, and they both are wrong in their methods. It's why I put little trust in anyone promoting their religious like views of climate. I find it disgusting that the weather has become a fight at the level of how many angels can dance on a pin head.

The "warming is awful" view
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590

Their agenda is obvious. The color code alone is insulting. But it's real data at least. I checked.

The "warming has stopped" view

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NCDC_Winters.pdf

Obviously by choosing a short time period they make it look really bad. Again, the data is accurate (I checked)

Now once you look at the data, and realize that in the US, the winters are getting colder, you will quite rightly object to the amount of time for the trend. This objection is quite valid, all the more so for using data since 1970 to show warming.

The truth is, as is so often the case, somewhere in between the two extremes.

Of course real climate science knows what is happening with the winters. That's why we are seeing more and more papers attempting to blame the cooling trend on global warming. That nobody here seems to know this is surprising. Obviously there are some firmly held beliefs being challenged just to state the obvious.

That winters have been getting colder.

Not just some cold spells, not just extremes, not just a few isolated areas. Stop living in denial about this.
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Not that showing evidence, you know, facts, will make any difference at all in this case.
 
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whatever. you started with winters, without anything else
 
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r-j said:
It's pretty easy to debunk nonsense, and counter lies and false statements online. Not that the facts will sway anyone, but it is easy.

DC said:
when you brought up colder winters, you said just winter, not NH winters nor Boreal winters, then it was pointed out to you that your own sources did not support the claim that Winters are becoming colder, but Boreal winters.
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Completely false of course, but at least we got to laugh at your lack of understanding in regards to the term "boreal", in regards to winter.
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Did you think that nobody would go back and check r-j?

I went back to where you started this nonsense and you did indeed say just winters. Not NH winters. Here is an example.

Then I pointed out winters have been trending down, and we see unscientific comments, including denial of the records.

When I show how the last few weeks have been record cold, more denial. That winters have turned really cold, and the trend is colder winters, isn't in dispute. Yet we see denial here over it.
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The usual r-j assumed superiority and belligerence but no mention of Northern Hemisphere. Will you now admit you are wrong r-j?

ETA and here is another one this might be the first time r-j made the claim.

Winters have been getting colder. If this had been predicted as part of global warming, we would be hearing about how cold it's been, and crying over global warming.

Just like the mild winter last year in the US meant global warming.

You don't hear anyone except the poor Australians weeping over the warmth right now.
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I've gone through several pages of r-j making the same claim over and over "winters are cooling", no mention by him of Northern Hemisphere.
 
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r-j cherry picks the starting date and land only data for his graph

r-j said:
...snipped usual insults....
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Oh dear - the cherry picking continues from you r-j :jaw-dropp! So the question I asked before is relevant again:
r-j (19 September 2014): Please justify what seems to be an arbitrary selection of 1995 as the starting date of the trend line when there is pre-1995 data in the graph.

As I noted before: r-j cherry-picked the beginning of his data in a graph in order to get the trend that he wanted (and left the missed out data in the graph to make this obvious!).

In fact it gets worse :jaw-dropp! We have a definitive citation to the parameters r-j used to generate the graph.
This is
* Data for February 1988 to 2014, NH, Land only.
* Trend for February 1995 to 2014
Thus r-j is also cherry picking land temperatures to get this cooling trend. ETA: This is excusable if r-j is only comparing to Cohen et al (2012) but then the ignorance of the contents raises its ugly head (they determine that there is no trend in NH land temperatures) and suggests cherry picking GISS because it fits his bias :p.

Also: r-j: (8th September 2014) theory + global + warming in a search still does not = "Theory of Global Warming":jaw-dropp!
 
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r-j cannot understand the contents of the Cohen et al 2012 papers

r-j said:
Here are two actual real climate research papers that explain exactly what I was showing.
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You do not need to emphasize that you cannot understand the contents of scientific papers, r-j :p!

You showed an image of a cherry picked trend over the entire land mass of the NH.

You highlighted quotes about specific areas of the land mass of the NH.
Can you understand that "large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia" is not all of the NH land, r-j?

You selected a starting date of 1995.
Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling use a starting date of 1988.

The first paper says there is no linear trend for NH winter land surface temperatures:
Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling
As shown in figure 1(b), for the same period over which annual-mean
NH temperatures have increased, boreal winter (December, January and February (DJF)) NH winter land surface temperatures exhibit no linear trend.
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Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends, Cohen et al (2012) (PDF)
contains an analysis of the consequences of using different time periods to get trends and what this means for different seasons. For land winters (DJF), data ending in 2010, the trend goes from positive to negative when you move through 1979, 1987, 1993, 1997 and 2005 as starting dates.
 
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There are more than a few confusing things on the virtual table. Is it even possible to dispel any of it? Doubtful, but that never stopped anyone.

Reality Check said:
Can you understand that "large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia" is not all of the NH land, r-j?
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Listen carefully. There are TWO different things being discussed, in regards to winters. Boreal winter, which by now everyone should know, means in this respect, "boreal winter (December, January and February (DJF)) NH winter land surface temperatures".

Boreal winter means the land, in the NH, during December, January and February.

Got that?

It does not mean winter in the boreal forest region, it is just a term for the NH winter. When Cohen et al talk about widespread cooling, they go on to describe where that means. It does not mean the entire NH.

When I talk about the colder NH winter trend being so negative it effects the global mean, I am talking about the NH mean, not any specific area. These are two separate things. Cohen et al does not talk about the 1995-2014 trend, nor the effect on the annual global mean.

Reality Check said:
You selected a starting date of 1995. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling use a starting date of 1988.
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Yes, because there are two seperate, different things being discussed.

Reality Check said:
The first paper says there is no linear trend for NH winter land surface temperature: Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling
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For 1988-2010, that is true. It's even true for 1988-2014.

Can we agree on all this?
 
r-j the confusion is your own fault. Every single time you use the word "winter" without the qualifier "boreal" you are being inaccurate and misleading. And you have been asked several very clear questions which you refuse to answer. Instead you post irrelevant walls of text.
 
When I talk about the colder NH winter trend being so negative it effects the global mean, I am talking about the NH mean, not any specific area.
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Just this one sentence is a mobius strip of contradictions, but the entire post is a low for you, R-J, which isn't saying much.
 
r-j said:
Listen carefully.
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Listen carefully to the facts in the real world, r-j.
You plotted a graph with a cherry picked trend over the entire land mass of the NH.
You compared this to statements about parts of the land mass of the NH.
You were wrong to do this.

Winter (with no qualifier) in the NH is December, January and February (DJF). This is the winter for the entire NH from the equator to the pole.

Boreal does not mean Northern Hemisphere in science. In general English, boreal means pertaining to the north or north wind. In science, boreal means the north of the north.

Boreal + Winter (boreal winter) means December, January and February (DJF) in mid to high latitudes of the NH.

Got that, r-j :p? You would know this if you had ever read or understood Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. The maps explicitly exclude low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere - they all start at 20 N :jaw-dropp! And
Figure 1. (a) The annual-mean area-averaged land temperature anomalies (C; averaged poleward of 20N)
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(emphasis added)
 
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r-j said:
When Cohen et al talk about widespread cooling, they go on to describe where that means. It does not mean the entire NH.
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That is correct, r-j.
Cohen et al state that
For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia.
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and
As shown in figure 1(b), for the same period over which annual-mean NH temperatures have increased, boreal winter (December, January and February (DJF)) NH winter land surface temperatures exhibit no linear trend.
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When you talk about "the colder NH winter" (i.e. all of the NH) trend being so negative it effects the global mean in the paper you are lying about Cohen et al which states that it is parts of the NH that has the cooling tend.
When you compare a 1995-2014 trend to Cohen et al with their 1988-2010 trend then you are confirming ignorance about Cohen at al.
Thus: r-j cannot understand the contents of the Cohen et al 2012 papers :eye-poppi!

When you cherry pick the starting date to get the trend that you want then that is lying, r-j.
r-j cherry picks the starting date to get the trend he wants :eye-poppi!
r-j (19 September 2014): Please justify what seems to be an arbitrary selection of 1995 as the starting date of the trend line when there is pre-1995 data in the graph.
 
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Reality Check said:
Oh dear - the cherry picking continues from you r-j :jaw-dropp! So the question I asked before is relevant again:
r-j (19 September 2014): Please justify what seems to be an arbitrary selection of 1995 as the starting date of the trend line when there is pre-1995 data in the graph.

As I noted before: r-j cherry-picked the beginning of his data in a graph in order to get the trend that he wanted (and left the missed out data in the graph to make this obvious!).
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I like my cherry-picking better. :)
 
r-j said:
There are more than a few confusing things on the virtual table. Is it even possible to dispel any of it? Doubtful, but that never stopped anyone.

Listen carefully. There are TWO different things being discussed, in regards to winters. Boreal winter, which by now everyone should know, means in this respect, "boreal winter (December, January and February (DJF)) NH winter land surface temperatures".

Boreal winter means the land, in the NH, during December, January and February.

Got that?

It does not mean winter in the boreal forest region, it is just a term for the NH winter. When Cohen et al talk about widespread cooling, they go on to describe where that means. It does not mean the entire NH.

When I talk about the colder NH winter trend being so negative it effects the global mean, I am talking about the NH mean, not any specific area. These are two separate things. Cohen et al does not talk about the 1995-2014 trend, nor the effect on the annual global mean.

Yes, because there are two seperate, different things being discussed.



For 1988-2010, that is true. It's even true for 1988-2014.

Can we agree on all this?
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Oh really? Which NH land temperature are we talking about, here's a plot of the January temperatures? Surely not CRUTEM3 with it's even more extreme loss of coverage in the arctic?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/crutem4vnh/every:12/plot/hadcrut4nh/every:12/plot/none

The crutem4vnh plot is land only - a cooling trend? I think not.

It seems that a 'cooling trend' can only be found by one, very particular, start point...
 
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r-j opined, incorrectly as usual
Listen carefully. There are TWO different things being discussed, in regards to winters. Boreal winter, which by now everyone should know, means in this respect, "boreal winter (December, January and February (DJF)) NH winter land surface temperatures
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".

You do realize....or maybe not, that NH winter starts at the equator...:rolleyes:

Boreal winter means the land, in the NH, during December, January and February.
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Wrong...this is accurate in general

Winter (with no qualifier) in the NH is December, January and February (DJF). This is the winter for the entire NH from the equator to the pole.

Boreal does not mean Northern Hemisphere in science. In general English, boreal means pertaining to the north or north wind. In science, boreal means the north of the north.
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and in the specific it applies to the regions discussed in the paper...not this ridiculous generalization you are making about NH winters.

Perhaps you would care to explain why Canadian winters are 3.3 C warmer over 60 years...given that Canada is a very significant portion of the region under discussion.
THAT is a trend with a very long baseline and I suspect it would be very easy to establish the same long trend in Northern EurAsian winter.

Once more ....regional cooling on the continents is expected with a weakening jet stream and that has been a know aspect of AGW and a warming Arctic.Move on before you make yourself look even more foolish belabouring a contention that is obviously wrong in several key aspects. :rolleyes:
 
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